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November 3, 2008 - Obama Ends Campaign Ahead In Ohio And Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds; With Small Dem Lead, Florida Is Too Close To Call ---

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FLORIDA: Obama 47 - McCain 45; OHIO: Obama 50 - McCain 43; PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 52 - McCain 42 Democratic Sen. Barack Obama ends his historic bid for the White House with a seven-point lead over Republican Sen. John McCain among likely voters in Ohio and 10 points in Pennsylvania, but with just a two-point, too-close-to-call lead in Florida, according to simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State polls released today.

No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College. Results from the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University polls show:
  • Florida: Obama at 47 percent to McCain's 45 percent, unchanged from October 29;
  • Ohio: Obama up 50 - 43 percent, compared to 51 - 42 percent last week;
  • Pennsylvania: Obama ahead 52 - 42 percent, compared to 53 - 41 percent last week.
Criticism of Sen. McCain for being too closely associated with President George W. Bush is twice as harmful to him as criticism of his selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate, voters in each state say.

By much narrower margins, criticism of Sen. Obama for being "too liberal" is more harmful than criticism that he is "too inexperienced."

"Sen. Obama appears headed for the best showing of any Democratic candidate among white voters in a generation, going back at least to Jimmy Carter in 1976 and perhaps even to Lyndon Johnson in 1964," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Race has been an issue, but green, not black or white, appears to be the color that matters most. Voters overwhelmingly say the economy is the major issue that leads to their vote and they see Sen. Obama as better able to handle the nation's money problems," Brown added.

"Although Gov. Palin's ratings with voters are not good, and in Pennsylvania and Florida more voters view her unfavorably than favorably, she is nowhere near Sen. McCain's biggest problem. Clearly, President Bush is a much heavier anchor around John McCain's neck in these three key states, and almost certainly the country as well."

Obama would be a "great" or "good" President, according to 50 percent of Florida voters, 53 percent of Ohio voters and 53 percent of Pennsylvania voters.

McCain would be a "great" or "good" President, say 50 percent of Florida voters, 44 percent of Ohio voters and 44 percent of Pennsylvania voters.

President George W. Bush's approval ratings are:
  • 28 - 67 percent in Florida;
  • 25 - 69 percent in Ohio;
  • 26 - 69 percent in Pennsylvania.
Florida

Obama leads 51 - 38 percent among Florida voters who already have cast their ballot.

Among all Florida likely voters, men go to McCain 49 - 45 percent and women back Obama 49 - 43 percent. White voters go Republican 52 - 40 percent, as do evangelical Christians 71 - 23 percent, and Catholics 55 - 38 percent. Jews back Obama 69 - 26 percent.

Independent voters back Obama 49 - 39 percent.

By a 52 - 41 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of Obama, compared to 56 - 38 percent for McCain.

Gov. Palin gets a 47 - 42 percent favorability.

Sen. Joe Biden, the Democratic running mate, gets a 50 - 35 percent favorability.

The economy is the most important election issue, 54 percent of Florida voters say. Obama would be more effective than McCain working with Congress on the economic crisis, voters say 49 - 43 percent.

Criticism that McCain is too closely tied to President Bush is more harmful than criticism of his selection of Palin, voters say 58 - 27 percent, with 11 percent who say neither is harmful.

Criticism of Obama as too liberal is more harmful than criticism that he is too inexperienced, voters say 40 - 36 percent, with 18 percent saying neither is harmful.

"The gender gap is what is keeping Sen. Obama slightly ahead in Florida. He is winning women by barely more than Sen. McCain is winning men. One potentially favorable omen for Sen. McCain's potential to pull ahead is that Florida voters view him a tad more favorably and a little bit less unfavorably than they do Sen. Obama," Brown said.

Ohio

Among early voters in Ohio, Obama leads 64 - 26 percent.

Among all likely voters, women back the Democrat 57 - 34 percent, as men back McCain 51 - 43 percent. McCain leads among white voters 48 - 45 percent and among evangelical Christians 59 - 34 percent. Obama leads among black voters 96 - 1 percent.

Independent voters go 48 - 44 percent for the Democrat.

Obama gets a 55 - 38 percent favorability in Ohio, with 51 - 42 percent for McCain.

Palin's favorability is a negative 41 - 45 percent, while Biden gets 48 - 33 percent.

For 58 percent of Ohio voters, the economy is the biggest issue and voters say 53 - 40 percent that Obama will be more effective than McCain working with Congress on this issue.

Criticism of McCain's ties to Bush is more harmful than criticism of his selection of Palin, voters say 62 - 24 percent, with 10 percent saying neither.

Criticism of Obama as too liberal is more harmful than criticism that he is too inexperienced, voters say 43 - 39 percent, with 14 percent saying neither.

"Sen. Obama's Ohio lead is based on his ability to be competitive among whites, even those without college degrees. He also is keeping Sen. McCain almost 15 points below the level of support among white evangelical Christians that President Bush received four years ago," Brown said. "Who would have thought that would be the case last March when Obama lost the Ohio Democratic primary decisively to Sen. Hillary Clinton, mostly because of his weakness among white working class voters?"

Pennsylvania

Obama leads 55 - 39 percent with women, and 49 - 45 percent with men. White voters split 47 - 47 percent, while black voters back Obama 95 - 1 percent. McCain leads 67 - 27 percent among evangelical Christians while Obama leads 51 - 46 percent among Catholics.

Independent voters back the Democrat 49 - 42 percent. Obama gets a 58 - 35 percent favorability, compared to McCain's 53 - 42 percent. Palin's favorability is a split 43 - 44 percent, while Biden gets 52 - 32 percent.

The economy is the most important issue, 55 percent of Pennsylvania voters say, and Obama will be more effective than McCain working with Congress, voters say 53 - 40 percent.

Criticism of McCain's ties to Bush is more harmful than criticism of his selection of Palin, voters say 58 - 27 percent, with 10 percent who say neither is harmful.

Voters split 39 - 40 percent on whether the "too liberal" tag hurts Obama more than the "too inexperienced" line, with 15 percent who say neither.

"In the end, Sen. John McCain's troops in Central Pennsylvania, led by veterans, disaffected Sen. Hillary Clinton supporters and God and gun clingers, will be swept over by a wave of young black and urban new voters, giving Sen. Barack Obama the Keystone State," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Gov. Ed Rendell will bring out all the king's horses and all the king's men and women to insure a huge turnout that will provide not only an Obama victory, but maybe a job for the term- limited Governor in Washington next year."

From October 27 - November 2, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 1,773 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.3 percent;
  • 1,574 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent;
  • 1,493 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data and RSS feed - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".

                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
FLORIDA              Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+


Obama 47% 7% 85% 49% 45% 49% 57% 46% 44% McCain 45 88 10 39 49 43 40 47 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 - 3 2 1 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 6 3 5 9 5 7 1 6 7

Alrdy IMPQ6 North/ Voted Econ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE

Obama 51% 57% 41% 45% 44% 41% 58% McCain 38 36 54 44 48 52 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 10 5 4 9 6 6 6

WHITE......................................... NoColl College BrnAgn Tot Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath His Jew

Obama 40% 38% 45% 37% 43% 23% 38% 46% 69% McCain 52 54 49 57 48 71 55 48 26 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 6 7 5 4 8 5 6 5 5

PresVt2004.. DemPrim2008.. BushJobAppQ10 Bush Kerry Clintn Obama App Dis

Obama 10% 90% 75% 95% 5% 67% McCain 84 6 16 3 89 25 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 5 4 7 2 5 6

Nov 3 Oct 29 Oct 23 Oct 1 Oct 1 Sep 11 Aug 26 Jul 31 TREND: 2008 2008 2008 2008** 2008* 2008 2008 2008

Obama 47 47 49 51 49 43 43 46 McCain 45 45 44 43 43 50 47 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 6 6 7 5 7 6 8 7

1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN
                            CAND CHOICE Q1
FL                   Tot    Obama  McCain


Made up 97% 97% 97% Might change 2 3 2 DK/NA 1 1 1



1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".

                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
OHIO                 Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+


Obama 50% 7% 91% 48% 43% 57% 60% 44% 52% McCain 43 87 5 44 51 34 38 51 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 1 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 6 6 3 7 4 8 3 4 8

Alrdy IMPQ6 Voted Econ Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt

Obama 64% 59% 55% 54% 54% 54% 38% 45% McCain 26 35 38 38 39 33 57 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 - 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 10 6 7 7 6 13 5 5

WHITE......................................... NoColl College BrnAgn Tot Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Blk

Obama 45% 45% 43% 38% 51% 34% 46% 96% McCain 48 47 51 57 40 59 49 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 6 7 4 4 8 7 4 3

PresVt2004.. DemPrim2008.. BushJobAppQ10 Bush Kerry Clintn Obama App Dis

Obama 11% 90% 77% 94% 5% 69% McCain 83 6 19 3 90 24 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 5 4 3 3 4 6

Nov 3 Oct 29 Oct 23 Oct 1 Oct 1 Sep 11 Aug 26 Jul 31 TREND: 2008 2008 2008 2008** 2008* 2008 2008 2008

Obama 50 51 52 50 49 49 44 46 McCain 43 42 38 42 42 44 43 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 6 7 8 7 8 5 11 8

1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN
                            CAND CHOICE Q1
OH                   Tot    Obama  McCain


Made up 97% 96% 98% Might change 3 4 2 DK/NA 1 1 -



1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".

                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
PENNSYLVANIA         Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+


Obama 52% 12% 90% 49% 49% 55% 63% 53% 49% McCain 42 83 8 42 45 39 32 43 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 3 2 - 4 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 4 4 2 5 3 5 1 3 6

IMPQ6 Econ Algny Phily NEast SEast NWest SWest Cntrl

Obama 63% 53% 78% 57% 52% 43% 47% 45% McCain 33 44 17 37 40 53 47 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 2 1 3 - 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 3 4 2 5 6 3 4 5

WHITE......................................... NoColl College BrnAgn Tot Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Blk

Obama 47% 46% 50% 46% 48% 27% 51% 95% McCain 47 48 46 49 46 67 46 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 - - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 4 4 3 3 5 6 3 4

PresVt2004.. DemPrim2008.. BushJobAppQ10 Bush Kerry Clintn Obama App Dis

Obama 14% 90% 80% 97% 6% 73% McCain 81 7 17 3 92 21 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 - - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 4 2 3 1 3 4

Nov 3 Oct 29 Oct 23 Oct 1 Oct 1 Sep 11 Aug 26 Jul 31 TREND: 2008 2008 2008 2008** 2008* 2008 2008 2008

Obama 52 53 53 54 49 48 49 49 McCain 42 41 40 39 43 45 42 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 4 5 5 6 7 6 9 8

1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN
                            CAND CHOICE Q1
PA                   Tot    Obama  McCain


Made up 95% 95% 95% Might change 4 4 5 DK/NA - - 1



2. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom


Favorable 52% 14% 88% 55% 50% 54% Unfavorable 41 80 8 34 43 38 Hvn't hrd enough 4 4 2 5 3 4 REFUSED 4 2 2 6 3 4

OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Favorable 55% 15% 92% 55% 49% 61% Unfavorable 38 79 4 35 46 30 Hvn't hrd enough 4 4 2 7 4 5 REFUSED 3 3 1 3 1 4

PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Favorable 58% 25% 91% 52% 55% 61% Unfavorable 35 69 6 38 39 32 Hvn't hrd enough 4 4 3 6 4 4 REFUSED 3 2 - 4 3 3



3. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom


Favorable 56% 90% 26% 54% 60% 53% Unfavorable 38 7 68 38 35 40 Hvn't hrd enough 2 1 4 2 2 3 REFUSED 4 2 3 6 3 5

OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Favorable 51% 91% 15% 56% 58% 45% Unfavorable 42 5 80 37 35 49 Hvn't hrd enough 3 3 4 2 5 2 REFUSED 3 2 2 5 2 4

PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Favorable 53% 89% 21% 56% 54% 51% Unfavorable 42 8 73 38 41 43 Hvn't hrd enough 2 1 4 2 2 3 REFUSED 3 2 2 5 3 3



4. Is your opinion of -- Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom


Favorable 50% 17% 81% 54% 48% 52% Unfavorable 35 66 6 31 39 31 Hvn't hrd enough 12 13 12 12 9 15 REFUSED 3 3 1 3 3 2

OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Favorable 48% 16% 81% 44% 41% 54% Unfavorable 33 66 5 34 43 25 Hvn't hrd enough 16 16 14 19 14 18 REFUSED 2 2 1 3 2 3

PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Favorable 52% 22% 83% 47% 50% 55% Unfavorable 32 63 5 33 36 28 Hvn't hrd enough 13 12 11 17 11 14 REFUSED 2 2 1 4 3 2



5. Is your opinion of -- Sarah Palin favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?

                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom


Favorable 47% 82% 15% 44% 50% 44% Unfavorable 42 10 72 43 39 44 Hvn't hrd enough 10 7 12 11 11 9 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 1 3

OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Favorable 41% 85% 8% 39% 48% 35% Unfavorable 45 8 78 41 38 51 Hvn't hrd enough 12 6 12 17 13 11 REFUSED 2 1 1 3 2 2

PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Favorable 43% 79% 12% 43% 45% 40% Unfavorable 44 9 74 43 41 47 Hvn't hrd enough 11 11 12 11 12 10 REFUSED 2 1 2 3 2 2



6. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS)

                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom


Terrorism 10% 19% 2% 11% 8% 12% The war in Iraq 9 10 8 9 8 10 The economy 54 45 62 56 54 54 Illegal immigration 4 7 1 2 4 3 Energy policy 5 7 3 6 8 3 Health care 10 4 18 7 8 12 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 6 6 3 6 7 4 DK/NA 2 2 2 3 2 2

OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Terrorism 9% 17% 2% 9% 11% 8% The war in Iraq 9 9 9 8 10 8 The economy 58 50 66 59 56 61 Illegal immigration 2 2 1 3 2 2 Energy policy 4 6 4 3 7 2 Health care 9 5 14 9 7 11 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 5 9 1 5 5 5 DK/NA 3 2 3 2 3 3

PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Terrorism 9% 18% 2% 10% 10% 8% The war in Iraq 9 8 13 5 9 10 The economy 55 43 62 62 54 56 Illegal immigration 2 3 1 3 2 2 Energy policy 5 6 3 6 8 2 Health care 10 7 14 6 8 12 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 6 9 3 4 7 5 DK/NA 4 6 2 4 3 5



7. If Barack Obama is elected President, do you think he would be a great President, a good President, a so so President, or a bad President?

                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom


Great 23% 2% 47% 20% 20% 26% Good 27 11 39 32 27 28 So so 17 28 6 17 19 15 Bad 28 55 5 24 30 25 DK/NA 5 4 4 7 5 6

OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Great 23% 2% 45% 19% 17% 28% Good 30 11 43 32 26 32 So so 19 34 7 21 23 15 Bad 23 50 2 21 28 19 DK/NA 5 4 3 7 5 6

PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Great 24% 6% 43% 20% 20% 28% Good 29 13 45 26 28 30 So so 18 28 7 25 19 17 Bad 23 47 4 22 26 20 DK/NA 5 6 2 7 6 4



8. If John McCain is elected President, do you think he would be a great President, a good President, a so so President, or a bad President?

                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom


Great 12% 23% 3% 9% 9% 14% Good 38 63 17 37 42 35 So so 28 11 38 35 27 28 Bad 19 2 38 16 18 20 DK/NA 3 1 4 4 3 4

OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Great 7% 16% 2% 5% 7% 7% Good 37 69 10 37 42 31 So so 32 13 43 37 30 34 Bad 20 1 42 16 17 23 DK/NA 4 2 3 5 3 5

PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Great 8% 18% 1% 6% 7% 8% Good 36 62 14 37 37 35 So so 31 15 43 36 33 30 Bad 20 3 38 16 19 22 DK/NA 4 3 4 4 3 5



9. Regardless of whom you support for President, who do you think would be more effective in working with Congress and solving the nation's economic crisis - Barack Obama or John McCain?

                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom


Obama 49% 12% 84% 51% 48% 50% McCain 43 81 11 40 45 42 DK/NA 7 7 5 9 7 8

OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Obama 53% 14% 91% 50% 47% 59% McCain 40 79 7 42 47 34 DK/NA 7 7 3 8 6 7

PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Obama 53% 18% 88% 48% 50% 56% McCain 40 74 9 40 42 37 DK/NA 7 7 3 12 8 7



10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom


Approve 28% 58% 7% 20% 27% 28% Disapprove 67 35 91 75 68 66 DK/NA 6 7 2 5 5 6

OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Approve 25% 59% 4% 20% 30% 20% Disapprove 69 32 94 75 63 75 DK/NA 6 9 2 6 6 5

PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Approve 26% 53% 4% 23% 28% 24% Disapprove 69 39 96 71 68 71 DK/NA 5 8 - 6 5 5



11. Some people have criticized John McCain for his selection of Sarah Palin as a running mate or his association with President Bush and Bush administration policies. Which do you think has been more damaging to the McCain campaign?

                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom


Palin 27% 11% 41% 29% 23% 31% Bush 58 64 50 61 61 55 NEITHER(VOL) 11 21 3 8 12 10 DK/NA 4 3 6 2 4 4

OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Palin 24% 9% 36% 26% 20% 28% Bush 62 67 58 61 64 60 NEITHER(VOL) 10 20 2 9 12 9 DK/NA 4 4 3 4 4 3

PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Palin 27% 14% 36% 30% 26% 28% Bush 58 63 57 53 62 55 NEITHER(VOL) 10 19 2 11 10 11 DK/NA 4 4 4 6 3 6



12. Some people have criticized Barack Obama for being too inexperienced or too liberal. Which do you think has been more damaging to the Obama campaign?

                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom


Inexperienced 36% 32% 41% 36% 33% 39% Liberal 40 59 22 42 44 37 NEITHER(VOL) 18 5 30 17 18 18 DK/NA 5 4 6 5 5 6

OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Inexperienced 39% 32% 44% 40% 33% 44% Liberal 43 63 24 42 51 35 NEITHER(VOL) 14 2 27 12 12 16 DK/NA 5 3 4 6 5 4

PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Inexperienced 39% 34% 43% 43% 35% 45% Liberal 40 58 28 38 47 34 NEITHER(VOL) 15 5 22 15 15 15 DK/NA 5 3 6 4 3 7