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Released: November 04, 2008 Reuters/Zogby Battleground 8-State Surveys: Obama Holds On in GOP Territory Perennial toss-up states playing their traditional roles
Final Numbers! ELECTORAL COLLEGE: OBAMA 311, McCAIN 174, TOSS-UP 53 UTICA, New York - Reuters/Zogby telephone surveys of eight battleground states show Democrat Barack Obama enters Election Day in a very favorable position to be elected President, having made inroads on formerly Republican turf, while GOP candidate John McCain plays defense. Here is the final wrap-up of battleground states in the race for the White House 2008. The surveys were conducted from Oct. 31 to Nov. 3, 2008. Sample sizes in each state ranged from 600-605, with a margin of error of +/-4.1%. Here are the states where Obama leads, with each state's Electoral votes shown: Pennsylvania (22) Nov. 3 Nov. 2 Obama 51.2% 53.7% McCain 41.4% 40.0% Other/Not Sure 7.4% 6.3% After McCain made a play for the Keystone state a couple of weeks before Election Day, it appears voters have turned their backs on him, as Obama leads by ten points. Ohio (20) Nov. 3 Nov. 2 Oct. 26 Obama 49.4% 50.2% 49.7% McCain 47.4% 43.9% 45.1% Other/Not Sure 3.2% 5.9% 5.3% Obama is now beating McCain among Independents, 60%-27%, an 18-point jump from last week. His other gain is among 18-29-year-olds, where he now leads by 30 points. Virginia (13) Nov. 3 Nov. 2 Oct. 26 Obama 51.7% 50.7% 52.0 McCain 45.3% 44.6% 44.8 Other/Not Sure 3.0% 4.7% 3.2 A 17-point lead among independents propels Obama to his lead here. He also leads among both men and women, and among moderates, his edge over McCain is two-to-one. Nevada (5) Nov. 3 Nov. 2 Oct. 26 Obama 53.2% 50.7% 48.2 McCain 42.4% 42.9% 44.0 Other/Not Sure 4.4% 6.4% 7.8 Obama is leading by a wide margin among independents, and he is also doing well to win 16% support from Nevada Republicans in the state that borders the home state of his opponent. He holds a small lead among men, and a big 19-point lead among women. Florida (27) Nov. 3 Nov. 2 Oct. 26 Obama 49.2% 47.5 49.7 McCain 48.0% 46.2 46.4 Other/Not Sure 2.8% 6.4% 3.9 Obama's lead among independent voters, 60% to 32%, is keeping him in the ballgame here. Both candidates are doing well with their base. Turnout and get out the vote efforts will decide Florida. Missouri (11) Nov. 3 Nov. 2 Oct. 26 Obama 48.8% 47.4% 48.2% McCain 48.8% 45.7% 45.7% Other/Not Sure 2.4% 6.9% 6.2% It is as close as they come here, but Obama's small edge among independents helps keep him in the game. He also leads by 20 points among those who have already voted, and barely leads among women. McCain leads among men, but only by a small margin. Here are the states where McCain leads, with each state's Electoral votes shown: North Carolina (15) Nov. 3 Nov. 2 Oct. 26 McCain 49.5% 49.3% 46.4% Obama 49.1% 47.7% 49.7% Other/Not Sure 0.4% 3.1% 3.9 A dead heat here, with McCain winning a bit more of his political base than Obama is from his. Obama leads in the New Economy areas of Charlotte and Raleigh Durham, but McCain leads everywhere else. Indiana (11) Nov. 3 Nov. 2 Oct. 26 McCain 50.4% 49.1% 50.2 Obama 45.1% 43.9% 44.0 Other/Not Sure 4.5% 7.0% 5.8 McCain leads by five points here, which is helpful for him, but Obama still maintains a small edge among independent voters. McCain also leads among both men and women. For a detailed methodological statement on this survey, please visit: http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1375 (11/4/2008)
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