Two Imaginary Meetings

Dave Schuler | Sunday, December 7, 2008

In an op-ed in the Washington Post this morning former White House counterterrorism coordinator Richard Clarke narrates two imaginary meetings. One of these meetings takes place in Rawalpindi, Pakistan among Osama bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahiri, Mullah Omar, leader of the Afghan Taliban, the leader of the Pakistani Taliban, and the head of Lashkar-e-Taiba. They note the strategic problems that the situation on the ground in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the United States present for the United States in combatting them. That meeting concludes with a little implicit praise for President-Elect Obama and a warning:

A long pause follows. Bin Laden breaks it, speaking softly, looking at the rug beneath him. “I fear this Barack is not as weak as you think, doctor. Already, many of the faithful are ready to forgive the Americans their sins just because they have chosen him as their leader. It is a setback for us.” Bin Laden raises his head, and a wry smile passes briefly over his face. “But . . . his economy is badly ill. If it gets much worse, he will have to bring all of his troops home. So . . . we may have to increase their pain level. We have done that before.”

The second imaginary meeting is one among members of the National Security Council in the west wing of the White House. It notes the virtually insurmountable obstacles to achieving victory in Afghanistan.

Mr. Clarke concludes his op-ed:

Seven years after 9/11, the United States has neither eliminated the threat from al-Qaeda nor secured Afghanistan, where bin Laden’s terrorists were once headquartered. To accomplish these two tasks, we must now eliminate the new terrorist safe haven in Pakistan. But that will require effective action from a weak and riven Pakistani government. It might also depend upon dealing with the long-standing India-Pakistan rivalry. On balance, al-Qaeda’s agenda for 2009 looks to be the easier one.

The op-ed itself is mild, even banal. However, it presents a wonderful example of how the known facts can be distorted through the mode of presentation.

We don’t know what the operational links between the various Islamist organizations in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India are. I doubt very much whether a meeting of the sort that Mr. Clarke describes taking place in Rawalpindi has ever or would ever take place. For dramatic impact it’s fine.

But the link to the op-ed in the online version of the Washington Post at least is placed above a photograph of the single terrorist captured in Mumbai last week. The teaser to the op-ed is “Envisioning the next chapter in the shadow war between the U.S. and al-Qaeda.”. The combination of the two creates the impression that there is a known operational connection between the attacks in Mumbai and Al Qaeda which is decidedly not the case.

The attacks in Mumbai apparently exhibit similarities to those used by the Naxalites, a native Indian communist organization. The Indian authorities have blamed the attacks on the Pakistani ISI. Statements in the press have linked the terrorists to the LeT while the widely used phrase “India’s 9/11” creates the impression that there’s a link between the attacks and Al Qaeda.

Dangerous as operational links among all of these terrorist organizations might be, frankly, I doubt that they exist in any really tangible form. There is no terrorist central command.

What may be the reality is even more disquieting: these are disparate groups that share a common philosophy, share at least some common objectives, and certainly share a willingness to kill to achieve those objectives. There is no master stroke, no decapitation strike, or even a simple strategy that will deal with all of them at the same time.

Tags | Dave Schuler Afghanistan, al Qaeda, Pakistan, Terrorism

| | Permalink | Send TrackBack

Krugman: US Auto Industry Doomed

James Joyner | Sunday, December 7, 2008

Paul Krugman says the death of the American auto industry is inevitable.

Nobel economics prize winner Paul Krugman said Sunday that the beleaguered U.S. auto industry will likely disappear. “It will do so because of the geographical forces that me and my colleagues have discussed,” the Princeton University professor and New York Times columnist told reporters in Stockholm. “It is no longer sustained by the current economy.”

Krugman won the 10 million kronor (US$1.4 million) Nobel Memorial Prize in economics for his work on international trade patterns. Some of his research on economic geography seeks to explain why production resources are concentrated in certain locations.

Presuming he’s talking about the Big 3 continuing to make cars in Detroit, he’s almost certainly right.  Presumably, Ford and GM will continue to make profitable cars overseas and Chrysler’s Jeep brand (all that’s left of the old American Motors) will survive in some fashion.   Nor is there any reason that the highly profitable “foreign” firms manufacturing cars in the American South will fail any time soon.

I do think we’ll soon see the day when Western firms get out of the economy car business, ceding it to China, India, and Korea.  We’re simply not going to be able to compete on the basis of cheap.  I think we’ll see the end of cars as we know them before we see the demise of luxury and sports cars being made by Western, including American, firms.

Tags | James Joyner Auto Industry, Bail Out, bailout, China, economics, Economy, geography, India, Paul Krugman, Trade

| | Permalink | Send TrackBack

Shinseki to Head Veterans Affairs

James Joyner | Sunday, December 7, 2008

In a surprise move, General Eric Shinseki has been tapped as Barack Obama’s Secretary of Veterans Affairs.

Gen. Eric K. Shinseki disputed the administration's strategy of invading Iraq with a relatively small force. He retired shortly after Baghdad fell in 2003. (By Charles Dharapak -- Associated Press)

Shinseki, a four-star general and 38-year veteran who retired shortly after the fall of Baghdad in 2003, will appear with Obama in Chicago at a news conference today commemorating the 67th anniversary of the Japanese attacks on Pearl Harbor. Obama said Shinseki agreed to join the incoming administration because “both he and I share a reverence for those who serve.”

“When I reflect on the sacrifices that have been made by our veterans and I think about how so many veterans around the country are struggling even more than those who have not served — higher unemployment rates, higher homeless rates, higher substance-abuse rates, medical care that is inadequate — it breaks my heart, and I think that General Shinseki is exactly the right person who is going to be able to make sure that we honor our troops when they come home,” Obama told NBC News’ Tom Brokaw in a interview taped for broadcast today on “Meet the Press.”

[...]

Notably, Shinseki led the Army at the same time that Gen. James L. Jones, Obama’s pick for national security adviser, commanded the Marines. Both questioned Wolfowitz’s presumptions, before the war in Iraq commenced, about how the fighting would go, and they argued that the Pentagon was being too optimistic in its planning and should prepare thoroughly for worst-case scenarios.

[...]

Retired Army Gen. Colin L. Powell, who was President Bush’s secretary of state at the time of the Iraq invasion, called Shinseki “a superb choice. . . . He is a wounded hero who survived and worked his way to the top. He knows soldiers and knows what it takes to keep faith with the men and women who went forth to serve the nation. He also knows how to run large and complex bureaucratic institutions. His is an inspired selection.” Powell, also a former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, supported Obama’s election. Shinseki, 66, was twice awarded a Purple Heart for injuries sustained in Vietnam.

A truly inspired choice.   While Max Cleland had been talked about for a second stint in the job and Tammy Duckworth was bandied about as a more unconventional choice, Shinseki will bring enormous clout to the post.  Presumably, too, he wouldn’t have taken the gig without assurances that he’d be able to make a difference.

James Fallows notes that Shinseki’s quiet service continued into retirement: “Shinseki, who could have had a lucrative career on the talk show/lecture circuit giving ‘I told you so’ presentations, has not indulged that taste at all.”

Tags | James Joyner, Military Affairs, US Politics Barack Obama, Eric Shinseki, Pentagon, veteran, Vietnam

| | Permalink | Send TrackBack

Jefferson Defeated by 1st Vietnamese Congressman

James Joyner | Sunday, December 7, 2008

William “The Freezer” Jefferson, who has been under federal indictment for three years, narrowly lost a hurricane-delayed election yesterday to Republican Anh “Joseph” Cao.

Nine-term Democratic Rep. William Jefferson, who has been battling scandals and a federal indictment for the past three years, lost his bid for re-election on Saturday. Republican challenger Anh “Joseph” Cao, an attorney and community organizer, defeated Jefferson in the 2nd Congressional district race. He will become the first Vietnamese-American elected to Congress. With 100 percent of precincts reporting, Cao had almost 50 percent of the vote to Jefferson’s 47 percent.

The 2nd Congressional district, in and around New Orleans, is mostly African-American and heavily Democratic, and Jefferson appeared to be favored to win re-election going into the election. “The people of the second district were able to transcend party, transcend race,” Cao said after claiming victory Saturday night.

Voters also chose Republican John Fleming over Democrat Paul Carmouche in Louisiana’s 4th District by a slim 356-vote margin. Fleming will replace retiring 10-term Republican Rep. Jim McCrery, a top-ranking Republican on the powerful House Ways and Means Committee.

Elections in the districts were delayed after Hurricane Gustav hit Louisiana in September, setting up what should be the last two federal contests of 2008 on Saturday. Both races had two other contenders who drew a small percentage of votes.

While Republicans on Twitter and Memeorandum seem excited by these outcomes, I hesitate to read much into them. The 4th was a Republican hold. Given the margins, one presumes Jefferson would have won had the contest taken place on November 4 and turnout been normal. Indeed, if he’s still a free man two years hence, I wouldn’t be at all shocked if Jefferson runs again and wins. Certainly, it’s unlikely Cao will be able to hold on to a heavily Democratic district.

Still, it’s good to get him out if only for a while.  And Patrick Ruffini is right:

[T]here could be no more vivid example of why we need to run Republican candidates in every district than Louisiana’s 2nd. Cao won his seat more solidly than Fleming did in an R+7 seat. Starting with Obama CoS Rahm Emanuel, Democrats started to understand that Congressional races can be very nonpartisan under the right circumstances and that poor performance or other personal shortcomings by the incumbent can render even a hefty party ID deficit meaningless.  We can’t recreate Bill Jefferson in every district — the guy was indicted on 16 counts and the feds found 90 G’s in his freezer. It’s also an accident of history that the election happened today instead of on 11/4 when Jefferson could have ridden Obama’s coattails — it was delayed by Hurricane Gustav. There isn’t a Bill Jefferson in every district, but there is a Joseph Cao.

Now, there are plenty of “safe” seats where the incumbent not only has a huge partisan advantage but is also simply a very good Representative.  It’s not worth the opposition expending tremendous resources in losing efforts in those cases.  It is, though, worth grooming and running good candidates who can be funded if the incumbent suddenly becomes vulnerable.

Tags | Campaign 2008, James Joyner, US Politics Congress, Democrat, Elections, Hurricane Gustav, meme, Republicans, Scandals, Twitter, Vietnam, William Jefferson

| | Permalink | Send TrackBack

Amsterdam Closing Brothels, Marijuana Shops

James Joyner | Saturday, December 6, 2008

Amsterdam Red Light district

Amsterdam is closing most of its brothels and marijuana shops.

My wife and I spent a week in Amsterdam two years ago and found it to be incredibly clean and safe. Certainly, it was pristine in comparison to major American cities, including New York and Washington, given the virtual absence of panhandlers and street people. The coffee shops were well marked and easily avoidable. The smattering of rather unattractive prostitutes peddling their wares were somewhat disconcerting but not enough so to detract from the city’s charm.

Photo by Flickr user Stuck in Customs under Creative Commons license.

Tags | Europe, James Joyner, World Politics Drug War

| | Permalink | Send TrackBack

OTB Caption Jam^TM

Rodney Dill | Saturday, December 6, 2008

Weekend Caption Jam Linkfest. . .

• Rodney is going go burn rubber.
• Wizbang really wanted the three tenors.
• Wyatt Earp has his ups and downs.
• Cowboy Blob is visiting some whitetail trash.
• RT’s Ponderings is Biden her time.
• The Gone Rick Motel is looking the wrong way.
• Right Pundits is looking a little steamed.
• Blonde Sagacity is taking dead aim.
• Brainfuel can’t pass up on the miranda act.

Other Humor:
Political Demotivation is not particularly motivated.
Icanhascheezburger welcomes you to the kitteh cult.
V the K always has the best pictures at Caption This!

To join in, start a Caption Contest at your blog, edit it to add a link to this post, and then send a TrackBack. If your blog doesn’t automatically generate one, use the Send TrackBack feature below. For more information, see this post.

Tags | Contests, Rodney Dill

| | Permalink | Send TrackBack

Uncle Sugar to Bail Out Auto Companies

Dave Schuler | Saturday, December 6, 2008

The White House and Congress have agreed in to advance a $15 billion loan to the auto companies:

(CBS/AP) After weeks of tense discussions with the heads of the U.S. auto industry, Democratic Congressional leaders have reached an agreement that may just clear the way for the Big Three to get the money they need to survive … for now.

CBS News correspondent Kimberly Dozier reports that significant progress came Friday night, when Democrats from both the House and Senate agreed to bail out the struggling General Motors, Chrysler and Ford with federal funds.

Several officials say the White House and congressional Democrats have agreed on $15 billion in loans, which is less than half of what the car chiefs were seeking.

They say the breakthrough came after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi bowed to a demand by President Bush that any aid come from a fund that had been intended to help Detroit produce more fuel-efficient cars.

By my reckoning and based on the numbers the auto companies have provided that will give them between two and three months.

What will have changed in that time to transform failing companies with little hope of survival into viable ones? Is this just kicking the can down the road and delaying the inevitable?

Tags | Dave Schuler Auto Industry, Bail Out

| | Permalink | Send TrackBack

Hoax Put India and Pakistan on Brink of War

James Joyner | Saturday, December 6, 2008

A prankster put India and Pakistan on the brink of war. That this is possible demonstrates just how fragile that relationship is. That it didn’t escalate, though, tells us something important, too.

India's Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee (R) listens to a question as his Pakistani counterpart Shah Mehmood Qureshi watches during a joint news conference in New Delhi November 26, 2008. REUTERS/B Mathur (INDIA)

See my New Atlanticist essay, “Hoax Tests India-Pakistan Relationship” for more.

Tags | James Joyner, World Politics India, Pakistan, war

| | Permalink | Send TrackBack

Mary Beth Buchanan, A U.S. Attorney That Just Won’t Quit

James Joyner | Saturday, December 6, 2008

Mary Beth Buchanan -- 'I am open to considering further service to the United States.' (Bob Donaldson/Post-Gazette)

Mary Beth Buchanan, the U.S. Attorney for the Western District of Pennsylvania, has announced that she will forgo the customary courtesy of handing in her resignation when President Obama takes offices, saying “It doesn’t serve justice for all the U.S. Attorneys to submit their resignations at one time.” A mild blogospheric uproar has ensued at the nerve of this woman.

Faiz Shakir, for one, seems to be irritated about the whole thing, for reasons which should be obvious.  (They must be, since he doesn’t bother to explain.)

Barbara O’Brien isn’t surprised.  “Once again, we see that Republicans don’t think the rules apply to them.”  Granted, none of the other 92 Republican U.S. Attorneys have followed suit.  But, still, this is just the way Republicans are.    This Republican plot to undermine the Republic will have dire consequences: “If she doesn’t resign that doesn’t mean she can keep her job. If a new Attorney is appointed and confirmed by the Senate for her position, she’s out, whether she resigns or not.” Steve Benen agrees: “I’m going to go out on a limb here and guess that the Obama administration will replace her very quickly if she refuses to step down.”

So, what’s the big deal?

Well, Radley Balko figures this is a calculating move: “My guess is that this is a stunt to force Obama to fire her, at which point she’ll make a public stink, play the martyr, then attempt to parlay the resulting controversy into a run for the Senate, or perhaps for governor of Pennsylvania.”  Of course, that would require a plurality of the voters of Pennsylvania to decide she’s the least bad candidate for the job.  And it’s going to be mighty hard to be a martyr when the other 92 Attorneys resigned on cue.

Digby fears a palace coup.

This is a Republican soldier and if Obama attempts to fire her, she will become a martyr to the cause. And she’s not alone. They are all over the Justice Department.

When the US Attorney scandal broke, you’ll recall that there was a lot of wingnut chatter saying that because Bill Clinton had asked for the resignations of all US Attorney’s at the beginning of his term, Bush had a perfect right to fire US Attorneys who refused to do political dirty work. They set the stage for this at the time. It was entirely predictable that the new administration would be held to a completely new standard — he would not be allowed to fire any US Attorney who had been appointed by Bush for any reason at all or risk being accused of using the Justice department for partisan gain. It’s how they roll.

[...]

If she stays, she will be working against the Obama administration from within. There are probably many others like her at all levels, some burrowed very deeply.

Is Buchanan a political hack?  Apparently.   Should she resign like everybody else?  You betcha. Is it a big deal if she doesn’t?  Nope.

The idea that there’s going to be a major uproar at the replacement of political appointees is absurd.  O’Brien’s questioning of his legal bonafides and intelligence notwithstanding, Steve Bainbridge is right: “Either the US Attorney job is a political one or not.”  It is and we all know it.  U.S. Attorneys are appointed rather than being career employees because it’s inevitable that the Justice Department, also headed by a political appointee (the Attorney General) will have differing priorities based on the views of the president.  (That’s not to excuse the abuse of government power to advance partisan political interests, but a recognition that resources are limited and have to be prioritized in some manner.)

Obama will need to appoint replacements for Buchanan and her 92 cohorts.  I’m guessing he’ll make her seat an especial priority.  Once the Senate has confirmed a new USA for the Western District, she’s out.  And if she refuses to leave then, she’ll be politely escorted out by a federal marshal.

Tags | James Joyner, Law and the Courts, US Politics controversy, Pennsylvania, Republicans, Steve Benen, U.S. Attorney Firings

| | Permalink | Send TrackBack