Sunday, February 8, 2009, 6:44AM ET - U.S. Markets Closed.
First blogger Michael Shedlock and then The Wall Street Journal noted how Schiff's investment thesis - centered on shorting the dollar and buying foreign currencies, commodities and related stocks - had run aground in 2008.
A "number of" Euro Pacific Capital clients lost 50% or more in 2008, when the S&P; 500 fell 38%, The Journal reported.
Schiff does not deny some clients of his broker/dealer firm (he's not a fund manager or registered investment adviser) suffered big losses last year; they were hurt as the dollar experienced what Schiff calls a "phony" rally that hit commodities and subjected many foreign holdings to a "double whammy."
But in typically direct fashion (and less emotional than his initial response), the author and strategist address the critics head on in the accompanying video, making the following points:
I admire Schiff for sticking to his convictions now and in years past, when he was laughed at by other pundits (literally, in some cases). Some, like Ben Stein, have since apologized but others are surely taking glee in this tarnishing of his reputation.
But a more important issue is he does appear to "make no allowances for being wrong and [has] no exit strategy whatsoever," as Shedlock claims.
It was edited out of the video, but Schiff essentially said "there's no chance I'm wrong" when I asked what the risk is to his scenario of a collapsing dollar, which entered Friday at a four-week high vs. the yen and has been rallying vs. the euro even as (or because) the ECB held
steady on rates at its policy meeting this week.
With the bailout tally rising and Treasury potentially borrowing $3-$4 trillion in the next 18 months alone, it's hard to argue with Schiff's dire view of the dollar's fundamentals. But hubris is the deadliest sin and the biggest risk Schiff faces is the market staying irrational longer than he (and clients) can stay solvent.
so....who didn't lose money in 2008?
Peter Schiff has been dead on right on about the economy over the last several years. 95% of his clients made money or broke even in the horrible investment environment. People need to sit up and listen to anything this man says about the future.
About time someone speaks up and tells the people the truth. The stocks are surging even with the report of 598K job loss, more layoffs on the horizon, and failing economy. This so called stimulus bill will be the straw the breaks the camels back, welcome to the GREATEST DEPRESSION, our children will have to look forward to working to the age of 90 to pay all this back.
"so....who didn't lose money in 2008?" Every Yahoo poster but you and me it would seem.
so Schiff's clients benefits from collapse in the US Economy...and he's against the bailout...
Everyone laughed at him since 2005 when he predicted almost everything that has happened so far. Now his critics are laughing again at his predictions. I'm betting on him. People think that the same people that didn't even see this coming and believe in the same ideology that caused this whole thing will get us out of it, right? What a joke.
Like it or not, he's right about the clock not stopping on 12/31/08 - or any other date for that matter. The clock only stops when the close the lid on your casket. What's most assuming and vexing nowadays is how many people are running to the nanny state to save their skins.
I think my father gave me the best advise when it comes to money... 1.Don't buy on credit, if you want something save for it. 2.Create a budget and stick to it 3.Don't loan money to other people ...and from my grandmother I learned.. 1.Waste not, Want not... use and reuse what you do have 2.If you can't afford it, make it yourself, or go without
Another overly glib blowhard moron. Predicting the housing and mortgage issues was obvious. He has shown his real insights and skills by burying his clients in 2008 with his one dimensional recommendations.
RYWBX (Rydex Weakening dollar)
Get enough chimps and give them enough time on enough typewriters and one of them will write a Shakespear play. Give enough stock pundits...and one of them will make a correct prediction.
The "EXIT STRATEGY" on Wall Street will be: Open the friggin' window and jump! Same as in 1929!
I agree with Schiff, and there's zero chance he's wrong about the dollar going into the tank. The Fed's original mandate to ensure a stable dollar has morphed into a political arm of the white house. Schiff is right, short the dollar, buy other currencies, and (what I'm doing) buy gold.
Worst job report in decades, and the DOW is up 150 pts Anyone question WHY??? It's the government, buying stock at the window, with your tax money. Did you know that the Jones of DowJones sold his stake two years ago. Good timing, eh.
I did not lose a dime in 2008. Thank you Glenn Beck
Japanese & Europeans have more Debt & are more "Socialist" than USA. These countries are doing the SAME - government borrowing to stimulate their economies. So why would US $ fall relative to their currencies ?
Well Gee.... I thought the dollar rallied due to credit being non-existent, thus increasing demand for physical paper! Not to worry though: Anything we can buy with money is either over processed crap or poorly made overseas. So... DYI might be a GOOD thing for us! I have not met ONE kid in decades who can glue an airplane kit together, but they can ALL push a mouse to look at porn OR "text" on a cellphone! And NO social skills to boot! Wonderful society, huh?
Whether he is a prophet or a chump, I agree with his statement that the US government is trying to created a new bubble. Why is that government's role? Who authorized them to spend trillions of dollars to prop up an ailing economy? Why isn't anyone talking about fixing the economy (with training, education, improved products, higher standards, more competitive products), rather than all these quick fixes? I guess an arrogant, backwards country like the US - which can't even adapt the metric system - will try every quick fix it can find. Until it runs out of quick fixes, and has to do the hard work of undoing 20 years of neglect. http://menznews.blogspot.com
There is no reason why we should suffer what they escape.... The new jobless claims...when the economy was in a steep recession.
Quotes and other information supplied by independent providers identified on the Yahoo! Finance partner page. Quotes are updated automatically, but will be turned off after 25 minutes of inactivity. Quotes are delayed at least 15 minutes for NASDAQ, NYSE and Amex. See also delay times for other exchanges. Real-Time continuous streaming quotes are available through our premium service. You may turn streaming quotes on or off. Fundamental company data provided by Capital IQ. Financials data provided by Edgar Online. Dividend data provided by Hemscott Americas. Historical chart data and daily updates provided by Commodity Systems, Inc. (CSI). International historical chart data and daily updates provided by Hemscott Americas. Fund summary, fund performance and Morningstar Index data provided by Morningstar. Analyst estimates data provided by Thomson Financial Network. All data provided by Thomson Financial Network is based solely upon research information provided by third party analysts. Yahoo! has not reviewed, and in no way endorses the validity of such data. Yahoo! and ThomsonFN shall not be liable for any actions taken in reliance thereon. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. Neither Yahoo! nor any of independent providers is liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. By accessing the Yahoo! site, you agree not to redistribute the information found therein.
therealsykes - Friday February 06, 2009 10:25AM EST
nobody is ever always right, always have an exit strategy, always teach others to have exit strategies...pathetic schiff