Posted by itoldyouso at 2/9/09 7:32 p.m.

Wow a real estate agent calls the bottom and the PI has another sound off on it but if the story is "Obama to Congress: Pass stimulus, don't play games" we don't get any comments? Why is that when we have "Republicans quickly turning into 'party of no'" for twelve days? No bias in this paper...

Posted by Liberal Dragon at 2/9/09 7:32 p.m.

I've had a house on the market for a while now and I have not budged on price and I'm glad I have not.. I just landed multiple offers this week. The offers are not where they need to be and most of the excess housing is off the market in my neighborhood. So, I'm going to hold out on price because I can. The traffic on my place has also picked up tremendously in the last three weeks. I'm expecting a third and fourth offer next week on my townhouse. :-)

Posted by jumailnk at 2/9/09 7:57 p.m.

Haha, don't kid yourself people. The fun is just getting started. Alt-A's and option ARMS should be failing soon.

Posted by ballardog at 2/9/09 8:08 p.m.

The bottom will not be determined by what is happening in the market itself but rather what is happening outside the market. Interest rates, lending standards, market supply, job stability and economic growth will determine the bottom of the housing market.

Posted by TheHairFarmer at 2/9/09 8:39 p.m.

Ardell is a smart cookie, but I think she is being way overly optimistic. There is still a lot of "adjustment" left to be made until local values are at realistic levels.

Posted by Mud Baby at 2/9/09 9:13 p.m.

A real estate agent calls this the bottom of the RE market??? I wonder who has more credibility--RE agents, or the President of the United States, who only a few days ago warned us that the economy is going to get worse before it gets better.

Posted by daranee at 2/9/09 9:22 p.m.

I just plugged in Ardell's numbers to a few houses. One house I lost in a bidding war, the house I am currently renting, the condo I sold a year ago, and one house that I like right now. If I take 20% off of what the houses would have peaked at in 2007, then they are all great deals. I would get off of the fence if houses were priced this way.

I think Ardell has done a bad job marketing this analysis. Everyone reads that she has called bottom, but what everyone doesn't read is that the majority of houses on the market right now are not priced to sell using her calculation as a guide. They are not bottom prices, but are priced well above that.

Posted by captainavenger at 2/9/09 9:31 p.m.

Let's see, someone with a vested interest in real estate predicts the "bottom". And, ummm, how does she know? She doesn't. It is in her best interest to predict the bottom, so she can start selling houses again. And she gets space in the newspaper. How pathetic.

Posted by Resident-of-Seattle at 2/9/09 9:35 p.m.

Housing prices have to fall to 1999-2000 price level which will be somewhat below what they are worth. Then in about 6 month or so they will start rising about 3-6% to their true value. Housing is just like the stock market, it is an investment without any guarantee of value increase or that it will not decrease. As in the stock market, the bottom will be below the true worth, but will gradually rise in several months to the true value. Since the housing bubble started in 1999-2000 time frame, prices have to fall to that level before increasing slightly (about 6%) to the value they should sell for if the bubble had never occurred.

Posted by Shilshole Swirl at 2/9/09 9:59 p.m.

Maybe Ardell could predict when I will win the lotto?

Or better yet she can predict the next round of layoffs at Microsoft, Boeing, the port, Swedish, etc ...

Posted by Apostle at 2/9/09 10:09 p.m.

Housing prices in our area will reach a bottom when Boeing and Microsoft start hiring again, instead of laying people off. Could be a couple of years from now.

Posted by LoneLibertarian at 2/9/09 10:12 p.m.

The Alt-A mess won't wrap up until some time just before 2011.

Until then keep drinking from the kool aid well.

Posted by geon at 2/9/09 10:41 p.m.

LOL! This isn't news, it's propaganda.

Posted by Shilshole Swirl at 2/9/09 10:47 p.m.

This is further proof that Journalism at the PI has (with the exception of Horsey) left the door long ago.

I hate to say this ... but it is time to put this paper out its misery.

Posted by Seattle98059 at 2/9/09 11:16 p.m.

BS.

Posted by magnoliaguy78 at 2/10/09 12:16 a.m.

Agent predicts housing slump's demise.. let's try a few others:

vineyard owner predicts increase in wine drinking
auto mechanic predicts a lot of transmission rebuilds
Gregoire predicts lawmakers will come to an agreement on the waterfront tunnel

wheeee this is fun! Can I write for the P.I. oh wait....

Posted by trenor at 2/10/09 12:37 a.m.

The housing market has not hit bottom. End of story. Quit quoting real estate professionals. They have no credibility.

Posted by bugsanddaffy at 2/10/09 12:40 a.m.

Yes indeed, this is not journalism, rather a propaganda for all the realtors w/ rose-colored lenses. And this particular one is tooting her own horn. How shameful!

Most realtors are eternal optimist. Some are deviously deceitful and others are hopelessly clueless. Next to the used car salesmen and ambulance chasers, I would least trust this type of realtors.

As it was pointed out, there are many "external" economical variables which affect the housing market. I would not trust this realtor who has a vested interest in the article. Who is she, a lady who got her realtor license to make quick $$$ and now claims to be an expert in economy? Perhaps she can now moonlight as an financial advisor.

Posted by rex7 at 2/10/09 1:13 a.m.

....and the wolf at the door says, "open up".

Posted by IT professional at 2/10/09 4:50 a.m.

Oh yeah, Seattle always bucks the market. Plenty of jobs here. King County realtors have been blowing smoke for two years.

Posted by RojoRojito at 2/10/09 4:54 a.m.

The main driver of the so-called real estate market bottom seems is a bit of pent-up demand that has reacted to the first wave of home price decreases.

If we are at or near bottom then that demand will continue or increase, and if not then demand will fall off or shrink as percentage against existing housing for sale stock. If that happens then we are certainly not at the bottom.

But other things are happening. Foreclosures on bad mortgages have not topped off yet. The first wave went by in 2008 and two more years are predicted as Adjustable Rate Mortgages/ARMs raise their interest rates and create more foreclosures.

This means more houses for sale relative to demand if demand stays current. It probably will not given the economic crisis.

The conclusion I made is that odds are that we will have dips and peaks with an overall downward trend.

Buyer be waitin'

Posted by PublicEnemy#1 at 2/10/09 5:52 a.m.

I fail to see why this newspaper should pay attention to a realtor like Ardell calling the bottom when she has so obviously missed the peak?

Ardell Dellaloggia's own home is for sale as a short sale, according to Zillow's website and a search of King County records. If she is so great at predicting the future, why didn't she sell her home at the peak instead of pushing it as a short sale now? A home she has been trying to unload since February or March 2008. So, we are supposed to take her advice and knowledge when she cannot even sell her own home, even after a $150,000 price drop?

Don't believe me? Check the KC public records under her name, RainCityGuide (Search "Get Ready to Sell with ARDELL") and Zillow.

Ardell, in my opinion, is part of the problem. A realtor who got in over her head on her own house and now wants the bank, and in all likelihood the taxpayers, to clean up her mess.

She has ZERO credibility with me. She's someone who drank the kool aid then and is still drinking it now.

Posted by samatpi at 2/10/09 6:04 a.m.

Don't trust anything a real estate agent says, all they do is take a test and they are realtors!

Posted by Kary L. Krismer at 2/10/09 6:18 a.m.

darannee wrote: "think Ardell has done a bad job marketing this analysis. Everyone reads that she has called bottom, but what everyone doesn't read is that the majority of houses on the market right now are not priced to sell using her calculation as a guide. They are not bottom prices, but are priced well above that."

But that's different than a bottom. Yes you can lower an individual house to a price where it will sell, but that won't mean the market has reached a bottom.

Posted by PastorRodFlash at 2/10/09 6:18 a.m.

Give the drummer her due. DellaLoggia is paid to sell houses, and she just got the chance to shine some light on the product line - without paying for the ad.

Posted by Kary L. Krismer at 2/10/09 6:20 a.m.

Captainavenger wrote: "Let's see, someone with a vested interest in real estate predicts the "bottom". And, ummm, how does she know? She doesn't. It is in her best interest to predict the bottom, so she can start selling houses again. And she gets space in the newspaper. How pathetic."

Did you read the article? One of the things I thought important to point out was Ardell is not a perma-bull--she was negative less than a year ago.

I don't agree with Ardell on much of anything, but I disagree with the comment I just quoted even more.

Posted by TheProfit at 2/10/09 6:21 a.m.

Low mortgage rates and low gasoline prices are a most excellent tonic for economic recovery.

TheProfit

Posted by PublicEnemy#1 at 2/10/09 6:26 a.m.

Kary,

WRONG! She was an extreme cheerleader less than a year ago. It's only been in the last 8 months or so that she said things weren't looking so good. I can pull quotes from her all day long about how Seattle wasn't going to drop, etc.

You may think we aren't paying attention to her shenanigans, but we are.

Posted by DavidB at 2/10/09 6:36 a.m.

So the consensus here says the market not at the bottom.

Funny how a year or so ago I'd get into arguments with people on these blogs who claimed that home prices in Seattle would never fall because of our strong diversified economy, etc. Times have certainly changed.

Posted by islanders at 2/10/09 6:37 a.m.

I would like to see more individuals suing real estate agents and real estate companies. They are very complicit in the whole mortgage mess, and certainly have some negligence and liability. I would urge those of you who are upside down in your home values, or who have lost values, to consult an attorney to investigate the possibility of suing your real estate agent.

Posted by Kary L. Krismer at 2/10/09 6:40 a.m.

PublicEnemy, I'd agree she was bullish less than a year ago. What I'm saying is she turned bearish on April 17, 2008.

www.raincityguide.com/tag/2008-housing-m
arket-predictions/

Many of those predictions she missed by a mile, including the first price prediction she made, even though at that time over half the sales that were going to close that quarter were already written.

She ended up being slighly optimistic on the 4th quarter price and way over optimistic on volume, but that's due to the September bailout mess, which she never mentioned seeing coming.

Posted by CharlieTuna at 2/10/09 6:44 a.m.

Rising unemployment.
Rising bankruptcies
Rising foreclosures
Bank failures rising
Credit difficult to obtain
Countries going bankrupt (Iceland)

... and you are now calling the bottom. This is delusional.

~

Posted by Kary L. Krismer at 2/10/09 6:46 a.m.

Islanders wrote: "I would like to see more individuals suing real estate agents and real estate companies. They are very complicit in the whole mortgage mess, and certainly have some negligence and liability. I would urge those of you who are upside down in your home values, or who have lost values, to consult an attorney to investigate the possibility of suing your real estate agent."

Be prepared to pay attorney fees for filing a frivolous lawsuit if you try such a thing.

This actually gets to the heart of why I don't like agents making predictions. When I spoke with Aubrey about this piece I used some other words too. Irresponsible and that it should be unethical (but isn't) come to mind. I don't think anyone can predict prices, but in any case, agents simply are not trained to predict future prices.

But getting to the point quoted, agents, stockbrokers, etc. are not subject to liability for stating their opinions. This is not the legal reason for that, but IMHO the reason for that is people only hear what they want to hear. The buyer typically comes to the agent wanting to buy, and will more likely hear anything that is consistent with their opinion than things inconsistent, even if those things are not said at all.

Posted by Kary L. Krismer at 2/10/09 6:53 a.m.

CharlieTuna wrote: "Rising unemployment.
Rising bankruptcies
Rising foreclosures
Bank failures rising
Credit difficult to obtain
Countries going bankrupt (Iceland)
... and you are now calling the bottom. This is delusional."

Good list, but on the other side there's the $15,000 buyer's credit in the stimulus bill, and the almost certain amendments to the distressed property law. Ardell doesn't believe in the effects of the former on increasing foreclosures, but she very well may be betting that the $15,000 tax credit will cause at least a temporary change, making her look good, at least temporarily.

The odd thing is, Ardell looks at pendings, and that data is showing we're not at a bottom. The February and March will likely be lower than January based on pendings. Pendings are only an indication though, and can sometimes deceive, but I know she looks at that.

Posted by yaddayadda at 2/10/09 6:55 a.m.

Whether you agree with Aubrey or not, you have to be impressed that she got a free front page ad in the PI!