Israel's election

I won. No, I won

Feb 12th 2009 | JERUSALEM
From The Economist print edition

Much haggling, and some discretion, will be needed to form a new government

THOUGH his Likud party seemed to have lost the election on February 10th, by a whisker, to Tzipi Livni’s Kadima, Binyamin Netanyahu has a good chance of becoming Israel’s next prime minister. The rightist-religious block of parties, Mr Netanyahu’s natural allies, emerged substantially stronger than the parties of the left which may back Ms Livni, the foreign minister, for the prime minister’s office. Projections on February 11th, with the soldiers’ vote still to be counted, showed Ms Livni’s Kadima with 28 seats in the 120-seat Knesset and Mr Netanyahu’s Likud with 27. The rightist-religious block numbered 65 to the left’s 55.

But Mr Netanyahu is going to have to sweat. The blocks are fluid, their internal alliances fickle. Ms Livni, who came from behind to pip Mr Netanyahu at the post, is still fighting hard to keep him out of the prime minister’s seat, despite the arithmetical handicap dealt by the results. On the night of February 10th, at televised victory parties, both candidates assured cheering supporters that they had won and would lead the new government. Neither is backing down.

On the first morning of what threatens to be a long and tortuous post-election haggle, Ms Livni met the ultra-rightist Avigdor Lieberman of Yisrael Beitenu—up from 11 seats to 15—and urged him to back her rather than Mr Netanyahu. “We can have a unity government”, she said alluringly, “that advances causes important to you.” She was alluding to Yisrael Beitenu’s demand for civil marriage legislation (to loosen the grip of Orthodox rabbis on Israeli life) and electoral reform. Both of these are opposed by the Orthodox parties, Mr Netanyahu’s allies. Ms Livni did not mention the less appealing—even racist—aspects of Yisrael Beitenu’s platform.

“Our heart is with the right,” Mr Lieberman told his cheering cohorts. “We want to see a nationalist government.” But he pointedly stopped short of endorsing Mr Netanyahu, adding that his party’s choice would be “not simple at all”.

Kadima ministers point out that Mr Lieberman has sat in cabinets before, including one led by Kadima, and that his hustings rhetoric tends to subside in office. They note that he envisages an eventual two-state solution between Israel and Palestine, whereas in his platform Mr Netanyahu ruled that out, leaving little obvious room for serious peace negotiations. Mr Netanyahu, for his part, would prefer not to rule with the rightist-religious block alone. He wants a more moderate-looking coalition.

Labour, under the present defence minister, Ehud Barak, would be his preferred partner. But it crashed from 19 to 13 seats in the election. Mr Netanyahu could hardly offer Mr Barak the defence portfolio again on that poor showing. So, once he has consolidated his right-wing alliance, he will presumably turn to Kadima, and try, by persuasion and blandishments, to convince Ms Livni to set aside her own prime ministerial dreams and instead to join him in a broad-based government of the centre-right.

ReutersNo easy task for Bibi

He will cite the looming threat of Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the more immediate challenges of Hamas and Lebanon’s Hizbullah, and the economic depression, as reasons enough for Kadima to join him. And to sweeten the package, he may offer Kadima two big jobs: the foreign ministry for Ms Livni and the defence ministry for her deputy, Shaul Mofaz, who filled that post under Ariel Sharon.

The process of coalition-building will formally begin once the election results are officially published next week. President Shimon Peres must consult all 12 parties that have crossed the 2% threshold to get into the new Knesset, and then decide who should have the mandate to form a government. The candidate has up to six weeks to get the job done.

The presidency in Israel is a largely ceremonial position, circumscribed by law and convention. Choosing the prime ministerial candidate after a close-run election is the one circumstance in which the president can, sometimes, exercise a modicum of discretion. Mr Peres, who is 85 and has, in his long career, suffered his share of hung elections and unworkable governments, may well have some ideas of his own to get today’s politicians out of their gridlock.

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