Florida (FL) Poll * February 18, 2009 * Florida's Crist Has Pick Of Go

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February 18, 2009 - Florida's Crist Has Pick Of Gov. Or Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Back Seminole Casino Plan

Word format Florida voters, by a 41 - 22 percent margin, prefer Charlie Crist run for re-election as Governor, rather than the U.S. Senate, but his 67 - 22 percent job approval rating and strong positive image makes him a heavy early favorite for either office, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.
Crist, who has said he will make a decision about which office he will seek in 2010 after the state legislative session ends this May, remains popular across party lines, as even Democrats approve 66 - 22 percent of the job he is doing.
Without Gov. Crist in the Senate race, U.S. Rep. Connie Mack IV, son of the former senator with the same name, is the leader for the GOP nomination. There is no clear front-runner among possible Democratic contenders, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds, but Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio is surprisingly well-known and well-liked.
Florida voters support 59 - 36 percent additional legalized gambling to finance education and to avoid additional budget cuts, with support across the political spectrum.
By a larger 63 - 33 percent margin voters want the State legislature to approve a deal between Crist and the Seminole Indian tribe for Las Vegas style casinos that would reap money for the state treasury.
"Gov. Crist has effectively frozen both the Governor's race and the Senate race. All Republicans are standing back and waiting to see which office he will seek before deciding about their candidacies since no one in their right mind will want to take him on," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"On the Democratic side, those who jumped into the Senate race assuming Crist would seek a second term in Tallahassee are getting nervous," Brown added.
"If Crist runs for re-election, Connie Mack is way ahead of the rest of the field for the Republican Senate nomination. The Democratic field is much more muddled. What's surprising is that Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio is in the running. Much of her support comes from widespread name recognition in the Tampa Bay area, but she may also benefit from being the only woman potentially in the race. Interestingly, her 16 percent in the Democratic primary is almost exactly what Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink received in a Quinnipiac University poll January 21."
In the GOP primary matchup without Crist, Mack leads with 34 percent, three times the 11 percent for U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan. Former State House Speakers Marco Rubio and Allan Bense get 6 and 4 percent respectively.
When Crist is added to the field, he gets 53 percent, knocking Mack down to 13 percent and the others to 5 percent or less.
In a Democratic primary, Mayor Iorio and U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek get 16 percent each, with 14 percent for U.S. Rep. Ron Klein and 5 percent for State Sen. Dan Gelber.
No Democrats have surfaced to run for governor, but by a 57 - 26 percent margin, including 54 - 32 percent among Democrats and 52 - 27 percent among crucial independent voters, Floridians say Crist deserves another term. Asked about a race between Crist and an unnamed Democrat, the Governor leads 48 - 25 percent.
Florida voters approve 60 - 37 percent the installation of "red light cameras" at intersections to charge drivers who run red lights, even if no police officer is present.
And by an overwhelming 78 - 19 percent margin, voters oppose a plan allowing the state's public colleges, community colleges and universities to raise tuition 15 percent.
From February 11 - 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,001 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. The survey includes 433 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percentage points and 367 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 5.1 percentage points
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. Is your opinion of - Congressman Kendrick Meek favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 12% 4% 22% 8% 8% 15% 5% Unfavorable 6 7 5 6 8 4 5 Hvn't hrd enough 80 87 72 83 80 80 87 REFUSED 2 2 1 3 3 1 3 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 6% 6% 5% 9% 28% Unfavorable 6 7 4 4 8 Hvn't hrd enough 86 86 88 87 61 REFUSED 2 1 3 - 2
TREND: Is your opinion of - Congressman Kendrick Meek favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Feb 18 Jan 21 Nov 18 2009 2009 2008 Favorable 12 14 14 Unfavorable 6 6 8 Hvn't hrd enough 80 79 76 REFUSED 2 1 2
2. Is your opinion of - Congressman Ron Klein favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 12% 4% 20% 11% 12% 12% 6% Unfavorable 5 6 3 6 6 4 7 Hvn't hrd enough 82 90 76 82 81 83 87 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 - 1 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 4% 5% 6% 2% 33% Unfavorable 4 5 3 2 8 Hvn't hrd enough 91 89 90 96 59 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1
TREND: Is your opinion of - Congressman Ron Klein favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Feb 18 Jan 21 2009 2009 Favorable 12 11 Unfavorable 5 6 Hvn't hrd enough 82 82 REFUSED 1 1
3. Is your opinion of - State Senator Dan Gelber favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 4% 4% 5% 4% 4% 4% 2% Unfavorable 4 4 3 4 4 3 6 Hvn't hrd enough 91 92 92 89 89 92 88 REFUSED 1 - 1 2 2 - 3 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 2% 3% 2% 1% 9% Unfavorable 6 4 3 3 4 Hvn't hrd enough 91 92 93 96 86 REFUSED 1 1 2 - 1
TREND: Is your opinion of - State Senator Dan Gelber favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (*Senator-elect)
Feb 18 Nov 18 2009 2008* Favorable 4 8 Unfavorable 4 3 Hvn't hrd enough 91 87 REFUSED 1 2
4. Is your opinion of - Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 17% 17% 15% 18% 17% 16% 23% Unfavorable 5 8 3 5 7 4 10 Hvn't hrd enough 76 74 80 75 73 79 65 REFUSED 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 7% 58% 8% 13% 2% Unfavorable 4 12 5 2 3 Hvn't hrd enough 88 30 87 83 92 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 3
5. Is your opinion of - former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio, favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 12% 17% 10% 10% 14% 11% 12% Unfavorable 18 10 23 20 22 14 11 Hvn't hrd enough 69 72 66 69 64 74 76 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 - - North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 11% 14% 10% 9% 16% Unfavorable 10 24 15 16 22 Hvn't hrd enough 78 61 74 73 62 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 -
TREND: Is your opinion of - former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio, favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Feb 18 Jan 21 2009 2009 Favorable 12 13 Unfavorable 18 17 Hvn't hrd enough 69 69 REFUSED 1 -
6. Is your opinion of - Congressman Vern Buchanan, favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 17% 22% 13% 18% 18% 17% 28% Unfavorable 10 5 12 12 11 9 7 Hvn't hrd enough 72 73 74 68 70 74 65 REFUSED 1 - - 1 1 - - North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 13% 43% 10% 20% 6% Unfavorable 2 25 4 17 8 Hvn't hrd enough 84 30 85 63 86 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 -
TREND: Is your opinion of - Congressman Vern Buchanan, favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Feb 18 Jan 21 2009 2009 Favorable 17 18 Unfavorable 10 9 Hvn't hrd enough 72 72 REFUSED 1 1
7. Is your opinion of - former State House Speaker Allan Bense favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 8% 9% 5% 9% 8% 8% 8% Unfavorable 9 6 8 14 14 5 6 Hvn't hrd enough 82 84 86 77 78 86 86 REFUSED 1 1 - - 1 - - North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 15% 9% 3% 5% 7% Unfavorable 9 12 9 7 8 Hvn't hrd enough 75 78 87 88 84 REFUSED 1 - - - 1
8. Is your opinion of - Congressman Connie Mack IV, son of former United States Senator Connie Mack, favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 34% 45% 30% 29% 36% 33% 40% Unfavorable 13 7 16 16 15 12 11 Hvn't hrd enough 52 47 54 53 49 55 48 REFUSED 1 1 - 2 1 1 2 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 37% 31% 32% 45% 34% Unfavorable 11 16 10 26 11 Hvn't hrd enough 52 51 57 28 55 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 -
TREND: Is your opinion of - Congressman Connie Mack IV, son of former United States Senator Connie Mack, favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Feb 18 Jan 21 2009 2009 Favorable 34 37 Unfavorable 13 12 Hvn't hrd enough 52 51 REFUSED 1 1
9. (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were - Pam Iorio, Dan Gelber, Ron Klein and Kendrick Meek, for whom would you vote?
Reg Dems Iorio 16% Gelber 5 Klein 14 Meek 16 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 DK/NA 43
10. (If registered Republican) If the 2010 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were - Marco Rubio, Allan Bense, Vern Buchanan and Connie Mack IV, for whom would you vote?
Reg Reps Rubio 6% Bense 4 Buchanan 11 Mack 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 DK/NA 38
11. (If registered Republican) Suppose Governor Charlie Crist decides to run for United States Senator. If the 2010 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were - Charlie Crist, Marco Rubio, Allan Bense, Vern Buchanan and Connie Mack IV, for whom would you vote?
Reg Reps Crist 53% Rubio 3 Bense 2 Buchanan 5 Mack 13 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 DK/NA 21
12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charlie Crist is handling his job as Governor?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 67% 71% 66% 63% 65% 69% 67% Disapprove 22 21 22 24 23 20 21 DK/NA 11 9 12 14 12 11 12 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 61% 73% 58% 80% 71% Disapprove 26 16 25 13 23 DK/NA 13 11 16 7 7
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charlie Crist is handling his job as Governor? (*also High 73% on 3/29/07)
APPROVE....... High Low Feb 18 Jan 21 Nov 18 Sep 8 Jun 3 Jul 19 Apr 10 2009 2009 2008 2008 2008 2007* 2008 Approve 67 65 68 61 61 73 59 Disapprove 22 24 18 25 23 11 25 DK/NA 11 11 13 14 16 16 15
13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 37% 44% 32% 35% 35% 38% 36% Disapprove 42 35 48 45 45 39 40 DK/NA 21 21 20 21 19 23 24 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 46% 34% 31% 35% 37% Disapprove 38 42 47 36 42 DK/NA 16 23 22 29 21
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
APPROVE....... High Low Feb 18 Jan 21 Nov 18 Sep 8 Jun 3 Sep 23 Apr 10 2009 2009 2008 2008 2008 2004 2008 Approve 37 40 46 40 38 51 32 Disapprove 42 42 35 41 46 34 48 DK/NA 21 18 19 19 17 15 20
16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill McCollum is handling his job as Florida Attorney General?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 48% 62% 38% 44% 49% 47% 59% Disapprove 17 9 22 21 20 15 10 DK/NA 35 29 40 35 32 38 31 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 52% 50% 52% 38% 42% Disapprove 18 19 16 12 20 DK/NA 30 31 32 50 39
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill McCollum is handling his job as Florida Attorney General?
Feb 18 Jan 21 Nov 18 Jun 3 Oct 24 2009 2009 2008 2008 2007 Approve 48 51 51 52 44 Disapprove 17 16 17 20 17 DK/NA 35 33 32 28 39
17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Alex Sink is handling her job as Florida's chief financial officer?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 32% 30% 39% 26% 32% 31% 33% Disapprove 22 22 20 25 23 22 26 DK/NA 46 47 41 49 45 47 41 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 35% 39% 27% 34% 28% Disapprove 24 24 24 17 19 DK/NA 41 37 49 49 53
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Alex Sink is handling her job as Florida's chief financial officer?
Feb 18 Jan 21 Nov 18 Jun 3 Oct 24 2009 2009 2008 2008 2007 Approve 32 39 35 33 38 Disapprove 22 18 21 25 15 DK/NA 46 42 44 42 47
20. Is your opinion of - Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 68% 76% 65% 63% 67% 69% 70% Unfavorable 21 16 23 23 22 20 20 Hvn't hrd enough 9 6 9 10 9 8 5 REFUSED 3 2 3 3 2 3 5 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 64% 75% 59% 82% 70% Unfavorable 24 14 25 15 21 Hvn't hrd enough 11 8 11 1 7 REFUSED 1 3 5 2 2
TREND: Is your opinion of - Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Feb 18 Jan 21 Nov 18 2009 2009 2008 Favorable 68 67 65 Unfavorable 21 21 22 Hvn't hrd enough 9 10 10 REFUSED 3 2 2
21. Looking ahead to the 2010 election for Governor, do you feel that Charlie Crist deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes/deserves 57% 67% 54% 52% 55% 59% 60% No/Does not 26 19 32 27 29 24 22 DK/NA 17 14 13 21 16 17 19 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Yes/deserves 54% 63% 49% 74% 57% No/Does not 28 21 30 17 28 DK/NA 18 16 21 9 14
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2010 election for Governor, do you feel that Charlie Crist deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Feb 18 Jan 21 Nov 18 2009 2009 2008 Yes/Deserves 57 56 58 No/Does NOT 26 26 27 DK/NA 17 19 15
22. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today, do you think you would vote for Charlie Crist the Republican candidate or for the Democratic candidate?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Crist 48% 78% 22% 46% 51% 46% 66% Democrat 25 7 50 17 21 28 15 DK/NA 27 15 27 37 28 26 18 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Crist 50% 53% 47% 65% 39% Democrat 19 22 29 16 30 DK/NA 31 26 24 19 31
TREND: If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today, do you think you would vote for Charlie Crist the Republican candidate or for the Democratic candidate?
Feb 18 Jan 21 Nov 18 2009 2009 2008 Crist 48 47 50 Democrat 25 27 28 DK/NA 27 27 23
23. If Charlie Crist runs for political office in 2010, would you prefer that he run for reelection as governor or for United States Senator?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Governor 41% 42% 40% 41% 41% 41% 41% Senator 22 24 22 19 20 23 26 NEITHER (VOL) 19 15 23 20 22 17 17 DK/NA 19 18 15 20 17 20 16 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Governor 40% 46% 38% 48% 37% Senator 21 15 25 20 24 NEITHER(VOL) 23 17 22 10 19 DK/NA 15 22 15 22 20
24. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Florida today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Very satisfied 3% 5% 2% 1% 2% 3% 4% Smwht satisfied 40 46 33 41 40 41 45 Smwht dissatisfied 33 35 35 32 33 34 32 Very dissatisfied 22 12 29 25 23 21 16 DK/NA 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Very satisfied 2% 3% 3% 4% 2% Smwht satisfied 45 43 39 44 34 Smwht dissatisfied 33 28 37 33 35 Very dissatisfied 19 21 20 20 28 DK/NA 1 4 1 - 1
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Florida today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? (*combined High also 63% on 9/23/04)
VERY+SMWHT.... High Low Feb 18 Jan 21 Nov 19 Sep 8 Jun 3 Feb 24 Apr 10 2009 2009 2008 2008 2008 2005* 2008 Very satisfied 3 4 7 7 4 15 5 Smwht satisfied 40 42 40 39 35 48 32 Smwht dissatisfied 33 34 33 29 34 22 34 Very dissatisfied 22 20 20 2 24 15 28 DK/NA 2 1 1 - 1 1 1
25. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charlie Crist is handling the economy?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 52% 60% 47% 50% 53% 51% 59% Disapprove 31 27 33 35 31 32 27 DK/NA 16 13 19 16 16 17 14 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 52% 55% 46% 66% 52% Disapprove 30 30 37 24 31 DK/NA 18 15 16 9 18
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charlie Crist is handling the economy?
Feb 18 Nov 19 2009 2008 Approve 52 46 Disapprove 31 33 DK/NA 16 21
37. Governor Crist has proposed increasing legalized gambling in Florida to help finance public education and avoid additional budget cuts? In general do you think this is a good idea or a bad idea?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Good idea 59% 62% 54% 64% 67% 52% 47% Bad idea 36 35 42 31 31 41 50 DK/NA 4 3 4 5 2 7 3 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Good idea 54% 59% 60% 63% 62% Bad idea 39 38 34 35 36 DK/NA 7 3 6 3 2
TREND: Governor Crist has proposed increasing legalized gambling in Florida to help finance public education and avoid additional budget cuts? In general do you think this is a good idea or a bad idea?
Feb 18 Apr 10 2009 2008 Good idea 59 55 Bad idea 36 40 DK/NA 4 4
38. Governor Crist has negotiated a deal with the Seminole Indian tribes to allow them to operate Las Vegas style slot machines and card games like blackjack in casinos around Florida. Supporters project that the state will receive almost 300 million dollars initially and could receive 100 million dollars a year in the future. The plan requires legislative approval. Do you think this plan for Las Vegas style casino games should be approved by the legislature or not?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes 63% 64% 58% 67% 70% 57% 52% No 33 32 37 28 27 38 45 DK/NA 4 4 5 5 4 5 2 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Yes 60% 64% 62% 60% 66% No 35 32 32 36 31 DK/NA 5 3 6 4 3
39. Lawmakers are considering legislation that would allow localities to install cameras at intersections to take pictures of cars that run red lights. This would allow officials to charge drivers even if no police officer were present. Do you support or oppose such a law?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 60% 61% 67% 50% 51% 69% 54% Oppose 37 37 30 47 46 29 43 DK/NA 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Support 43% 62% 63% 67% 68% Oppose 52 38 34 31 30 DK/NA 5 - 3 2 2
40. State officials have given Florida's public colleges, universities and community colleges permission to raise their tuition up to 15 percent a year. Do you think these educational institutions should raise their tuition 15 percent or not?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes 19% 22% 18% 17% 21% 17% 17% No 78 75 78 80 77 78 81 DK/NA 4 3 4 3 2 5 2 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Yes 18% 17% 20% 19% 20% No 79 80 77 76 75 DK/NA 3 3 2 5 5