Democratic Hope in Lebanon

By MELIK KAYLAN

In the streets of Lebanon these days, there's a palpable sense that the country's future, and the region's stability, is once again up for grabs. On April 7, political parties submitted their lists of candidates for the upcoming national elections on June 7.

What happens in those elections will determine whether Lebanon's pro-democracy Cedar Revolution survives, or whether Lebanon falls further under the sway of the Hezbollah-Syria-Iran axis. Between now and then, political power blocs build secret coalitions to lock in their interests. Now is the time to pay attention.

A result that tilts the country towards Hezbollah will confirm Iran's influence not only over Lebanese affairs but also over regional affairs. Iranian-sponsored provocations on the Lebanon-Israel border allow Tehran to lead the fight against Israel, rouse the Arab street and threaten the legitimacy of Sunni regimes. Lebanon's borders, and its pretences to independent statehood, will disintegrate anew as Iranian arms flow through Syria into Lebanon.

In the current parliament the Cedar Coalition has about two-thirds of the seats, but parliamentary rules allow Hezbollah and its allies to paralyze government. The country has 26 electoral districts with 128 seats. Many of these districts are solidly sectarian, with one dominant party, and not open to change. So, too often, power-bloc leaders have a surprisingly free hand to make policy as they see fit.

But this time around their positions are more precarious, and their actions more open to challenge, as pressure and money from outside -- from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf and elsewhere -- is flowing into the electoral districts. Also, this time the election takes place on one day and not over five Sundays as before. Previously, a well-honed machine like Hezbollah's was able to move its resources -- buses, monitors, loudspeakers and the like -- to each different electoral location on successive weekends and tip the balance in each district. Now, pressure of that kind will be dissipated over the entire country in a single day.

The heart of the electoral struggle, the pivotal battles, center around a handful of leading candidates. Michel Aoun, the Christian leader who sides improbably enough with the Hezbollah-Syrian side and thins Christian loyalty to the Cedar camp, may be vulnerable. He used to be anti-Hezbollah. Now, he colludes with his former enemies to keep the government weak and the confessional (or sectarian) system strong. His supporters have grown weary of his unpredictable allegiances.

Walid Jumblatt, the Druze leader, had switched from a pro-Syrian to a pro-Cedar position. Of late, though, he jockeys back toward the Syrians. The Syrians and Hezbollah look strong, and he is instinctively against a genuinely pluralistic Lebanon in which the old confessional power blocs might give way to a looser system. Mr. Jumblatt is already coalition building with Saad Hariri, the late prime minister's son, who has inherited the mantle of Sunni, pro-Cedar sentiment. But his Saudi funding has largely switched to other Sunni leaders. To preserve his position, he too is horse-trading for ministers, perhaps at the cost of his democratic principles.

At the same time, Hezbollah's position is challenged by a rival Shiite leader -- the centrist former speaker of the parliament, Hussein al-Husseini. The veteran politician was father of the 1989 Taif Accords that ended Lebanon's civil war. The accords brought forth the draft of a new, more democratic, constitution. But many of its most important features -- such as institutional transparency, the rule of law, and an independent judiciary -- were never implemented. Mr. Husseini's cluster of candidates will run on a platform to implement the updated constitution fully, along with a new electoral law that would reduce the power of sectarian party leaders in politics.

This is how things stand as the horse-trading begins. The democratic spirit is alive and well in Lebanon, but observers should be aware that some unlikely figures are inching closer to Hezbollah, Iran and Syria. The future of a country and a region depends on nipping the formation of antidemocratic coalitions in the bud.

Mr. Kaylan is a New York-based writer who reports frequently from the Middle East.

Please add your comments to the Opinion Journal forum.