Florida (FL) Poll * October 21, 2009 * Rubio Cuts Into Crist Lead In - Quinnipiac University

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October 21, 2009 - Rubio Cuts Into Crist Lead In Florida GOP Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Obama's Approval Up Slightly With Big Gender Gap

Word format Gov. Charlie Crist's lead over former state house speaker Marco Rubio in the 2010 Republican U.S. Senate primary has been cut in half from 55 - 26 percent to 50 - 35 percent, but the Governor tops the leading Democrat, U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek, 51 - 31 percent among all voters, while Rubio trails Meek 36 - 33 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Republican State Attorney General Bill McCollum edges Democrat State CFO Alex Sink 36 - 32 percent in the 2010 race for Governor, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey finds. McCollum has a commanding 43 - 7 percent lead over State Sen. Paula Dockery in a primary for the GOP nomination, not surprising since 91 percent of Floridians don't know enough about her to have an opinion.
President Barack Obama gets a split 48 - 46 percent approval rating, compared to a negative 47 - 48 percent score August 20. His slightly elevated standing in Florida is similar to the pattern that is occurring in a number of other states this fall.
"Gov. Charlie Crist's lead, which had been 29 points August 19, has come back down to earth. His margin is still formidable, but obviously Marco Rubio's focus on convincing Republican conservatives that he, not Crist, is their kind of guy is bearing fruit," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Among Republicans, 44 percent view Rubio favorably, 3 percent unfavorably, up from 24 - 6 percent August 19. But fully half don't know enough about him to have an opinion. Filling in that blank slate for that half of GOP voters - positively by Rubio and negatively by Crist - will decide the nomination.
"Floridians now give Crist the worst overall job approval of his governorship, 59 - 31 percent, but governors of many other states would sell their first born - or at least their running mate - for numbers like that," said Brown. "But because only Republicans can vote in the GOP primary, Rubio's strong favorable/unfavorable ratio among Republicans is something that should worry the Governor."
Crist's 51 - 31 percent lead over Meek is largely due to his 58 - 22 percent margin among independent voters. In a Rubio-Meek face-off, independents tip to the Republican by a small 31 - 27 percent margin.
McCollum benefits from not only better name recognition than Sink, but a higher job approval than she enjoys. Voters approve 53 - 19 percent of McCollum's performance as attorney general; by 38 - 23 percent they give Ms. Sink a thumbs up as CFO.
"McCollum retains a lead, but almost a quarter of the electorate is undecided, giving Ms. Sink plenty of opportunity with 13 months until Election Day," said Brown. "As far as the Republican gubernatorial nomination goes, Ms. Dockery has a long, long way to go to become competitive.
"It is interesting that President Obama's approval rating has inched up in a state with many senior citizens, voters who are especially sensitive to the health care debate," Brown said. "Obama still gets a 50 - 41 percent thumbs down from independent voters. Women approve of Obama 51 - 42 percent, while men disapprove 51 - 43 percent."
Crist's choice of his former campaign manager, George LeMieux, to replace Mel Martinez in the U.S. Senate splits the electorate almost equally: 34 percent approve, 32 disapprove and 34 percent aren't sure. Two-thirds of voters haven't decided yet about LeMieux's job performance, with the rest split almost evenly between approval and disapproval.
Florida's other U.S. Senator, Bill Nelson gets a 45 - 31 approval rating.
From October 12 - 18, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,078 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. The survey includes 396 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.
1. (If registered Republican) If the 2010 Republican primary for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Bill McCollum and Paula Dockery, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED REPUBLICAN Tot Men Wom McCollum 43% 56% 33% Dockery 7 9 6 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 1 DK/NA 47 31 60
2. (If registered Republican) If the 2010 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Marco Rubio and Charlie Crist, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED REPUBLICAN Tot Men Wom Rubio 35% 39% 33% Crist 50 49 51 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - DK/NA 12 11 14
TREND:(If registered Republican) If the 2010 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Marco Rubio and Charlie Crist, for whom would you vote? (na:Not Asked)
REGISTERED REPUBLICAN......................... Oct 21 Aug 19 Jun 10 Apr 16 Feb 18 Jan 21 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Rubio 35 26 23 11 6 6 Crist 50 55 54 na na na Bense na na na 3 4 2 Buchanan na na na 16 11 10 McCollum na na na na na 22 Mack na na na na 34 21 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 5 - DK/NA 12 18 21 66 38 40
3. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Alex Sink the Democrat and Bill McCollum the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Sink 32% 7% 64% 23% 30% 34% 14% McCollum 36 79 8 33 39 34 59 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 2 2 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 4 1 2 DK/NA 27 12 24 41 24 29 23 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Sink 28% 34% 27% 33% 39% McCollum 34 30 40 35 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 3 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 5 3 - 1 DK/NA 35 28 28 31 18
TREND: If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Alex Sink the Democrat and Bill McCollum the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Oct 21 Aug 19 Jun 9 2009 2009 2009 Sink 32 34 38 McCollum 36 38 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 DK/NA 27 25 25
4. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Kendrick Meek the Democrat and Charlie Crist the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Meek 31% 12% 58% 22% 29% 33% 20% Crist 51 76 28 58 53 50 64 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 4 - 2 4 1 3 DK/NA 14 7 14 17 13 15 12 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Meek 26% 30% 31% 31% 38% Crist 51 49 48 61 53 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 5 3 1 1 DK/NA 22 15 17 7 7
5. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Kendrick Meek the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Meek 36% 6% 71% 27% 34% 38% 15% Rubio 33 74 5 31 36 31 51 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 3 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 1 2 2 1 1 DK/NA 28 20 22 38 24 30 32 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Meek 34% 30% 28% 44% 47% Rubio 32 31 34 24 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 4 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 5 1 1 1 DK/NA 32 33 33 30 13
6. Is your opinion of - Kendrick Meek favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 20% 11% 31% 20% 21% 20% 12% Unfavorable 8 11 4 8 9 7 8 Hvn't hrd enough 71 78 64 70 70 72 80 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 - 1 - North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 22% 13% 14% 15% 33% Unfavorable 7 5 4 1 16 Hvn't hrd enough 71 81 81 83 49 REFUSED - 1 1 1 1
TREND: Is your opinion of - Kendrick Meek favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (*Congressman Kendrick Meek)
Oct 21 Aug 19 Jun 10 Apr 16 Feb 18 Jan 21 Nov 18 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009* 2009* 2008* Favorable 20 14 12 11 12 14 14 Unfavorable 8 5 7 6 6 6 8 Hvn't hrd enough 71 80 80 82 80 79 76 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 2 1 2
7. Is your opinion of - Marco Rubio, favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 24% 44% 6% 25% 26% 22% 33% Unfavorable 11 3 19 12 14 9 5 Hvn't hrd enough 64 52 74 62 59 68 61 REFUSED 1 2 1 - 1 1 1 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 20% 20% 23% 19% 33% Unfavorable 13 10 7 12 16 Hvn't hrd enough 67 68 70 67 52 REFUSED - 2 1 2 -
TREND: Is your opinion of - Marco Rubio, favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (*former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio)
Oct 21 Aug 19 Jun 10 Apr 16 Feb 18 Jan 21 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009* 2009* Favorable 24 15 14 10 12 13 Unfavorable 11 9 11 11 18 17 Hvn't hrd enough 64 74 73 78 69 69 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 -
8. Is your opinion of - Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 58% 63% 47% 65% 57% 58% 61% Unfavorable 30 30 35 24 32 29 32 Hvn't hrd enough 10 5 15 9 10 10 4 REFUSED 2 2 3 2 2 3 2 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 56% 63% 51% 63% 59% Unfavorable 26 31 33 25 31 Hvn't hrd enough 16 3 13 10 8 REFUSED 1 3 3 2 2
TREND: Is your opinion of - Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Oct 21 Aug 19 Jun 10 Apr 16 Feb 19 Jan 21 Nov 18 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 Favorable 58 60 60 64 68 67 65 Unfavorable 30 27 28 22 21 21 22 Hvn't hrd enough 10 9 9 10 9 10 10 REFUSED 2 3 3 3 3 2 2
9. Is your opinion of - Bill McCollum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 34% 47% 27% 31% 40% 29% 40% Unfavorable 14 10 20 10 16 12 13 Hvn't hrd enough 50 41 51 58 43 57 44 REFUSED 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 26% 31% 42% 45% 32% Unfavorable 7 12 18 16 16 Hvn't hrd enough 65 55 39 36 52 REFUSED 2 2 1 3 1
TREND: Is your opinion of - Bill McCollum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (*Attorney General Bill McCollum)
Oct 21 Aug 19 Jun 9 Jan 21 2009 2009 2009 2009* Favorable 34 42 40 40 Unfavorable 14 13 13 14 Hvn't hrd enough 50 43 46 44 REFUSED 2 2 2 1
10. Is your opinion of - Alex Sink favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 23% 9% 34% 21% 24% 22% 16% Unfavorable 8 17 4 5 10 7 9 Hvn't hrd enough 68 73 61 73 66 71 74 REFUSED 1 1 - - 1 1 1 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 22% 32% 19% 16% 22% Unfavorable 7 10 9 8 7 Hvn't hrd enough 70 58 70 76 71 REFUSED 1 - 1 - 1
TREND: Is your opinion of - Alex Sink favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? (*Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink)
Oct 21 Aug 19 Jun 9 Jan 21 Nov 18 2009 2009 2009 2009* 2008* Favorable 23 23 25 24 27 Unfavorable 8 8 7 5 13 Hvn't hrd enough 68 68 66 70 59 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1
11. Is your opinion of - Paula Dockery favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 5% 7% 3% 7% 6% 5% 7% Unfavorable 3 6 3 2 5 2 5 Hvn't hrd enough 91 87 93 90 88 93 88 REFUSED 1 - 2 1 1 1 - North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 3% 8% 4% 1% 8% Unfavorable 2 5 5 3 1 Hvn't hrd enough 95 87 90 91 91 REFUSED - - 1 4 1
12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charlie Crist is handling his job as Governor?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 59% 62% 54% 65% 61% 57% 59% Disapprove 31 30 34 27 29 32 31 DK/NA 11 8 12 8 10 11 9 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 57% 60% 53% 75% 59% Disapprove 28 28 38 18 33 DK/NA 14 12 10 7 9
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charlie Crist is handling his job as Governor? (High approve also 73% Mar 2007, *Low approve also 59% Apr 2008)
APPROVE....... DIS.... High Low High Oct 21 Aug 19 Jun 10 Apr 15 Jul 19 Oct 21 Oct 21 2009 2009 2009 2009 2007* 2009** 2009 Approve 59 60 62 66 73 59 59 Disapprove 31 30 28 23 11 31 31 DK/NA 11 9 10 11 16 11 11
13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 32% 40% 25% 33% 31% 33% 39% Disapprove 47 40 55 47 51 44 38 DK/NA 21 19 20 19 18 23 23 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 38% 32% 31% 27% 30% Disapprove 45 44 46 54 51 DK/NA 17 24 23 19 19
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charlie Crist is handling his job as Governor? (High approve also 73% Mar 2007, *Low approve also 59% Apr 2008)
APPROVE....... DIS.... High Low High Oct 21 Aug 19 Jun 10 Apr 15 Jul 19 Oct 21 Oct 21 2009 2009 2009 2009 2007* 2009** 2009 Approve 59 60 62 66 73 59 59 Disapprove 31 30 28 23 11 31 31 DK/NA 11 9 10 11 16 11 11
14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 45% 33% 56% 47% 43% 48% 46% Disapprove 31 40 22 31 37 25 34 DK/NA 24 27 22 22 20 27 19 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 42% 45% 50% 55% 41% Disapprove 39 26 29 24 33 DK/NA 19 30 21 21 26
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator?
APPROVE....... DIS.... High Low High Oct 21 Aug 19 Jun 10 Apr 16 Feb 6 Aug 12 Oct 21 2009 2009 2009 2009 2007 2004 2009 Approve 45 47 49 52 54 42 45 Disapprove 31 28 22 24 18 18 31 DK/NA 24 25 28 24 28 40 24
15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George LeMieux is handling his job as United States Senator?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 16% 17% 19% 14% 18% 15% 10% Disapprove 18 19 20 15 19 17 23 DK/NA 66 63 61 71 63 68 67 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 17% 13% 15% 22% 17% Disapprove 22 13 16 21 19 DK/NA 61 73 69 57 64
16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill McCollum is handling his job as Florida's Attorney General?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 53% 65% 49% 52% 57% 50% 56% Disapprove 19 12 24 20 21 18 16 DK/NA 27 22 27 28 21 32 28 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 47% 49% 57% 69% 54% Disapprove 21 17 18 14 23 DK/NA 32 34 25 17 24
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill McCollum is handling his job as Florida's Attorney General? (*High approve also 53% Aug 2009)
APPROVE....... High Low Oct 21 Aug 19 Jun 9 Apr 15 Feb 18 Oct 21 Oct 24 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009* 2007 Approve 53 53 51 48 48 53 44 Disapprove 19 16 16 18 17 19 17 DK/NA 27 31 33 34 35 27 39
17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Alex Sink is handling her job as Florida's Chief Financial Officer?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 38% 33% 45% 34% 40% 35% 31% Disapprove 23 24 16 28 25 22 22 DK/NA 39 43 39 38 35 43 48 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 38% 41% 28% 54% 39% Disapprove 25 23 27 13 21 DK/NA 37 36 46 33 40
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Alex Sink is handling her job as Florida's Chief Financial Officer? (*High approve also 39% Jan 2009)
APPROVE....... High Low Oct 21 Aug 19 Jun 9 Apr 15 Feb 18 Jun 9 Feb 18 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009* 2009 Approve 38 37 39 33 32 39 32 Disapprove 23 21 17 22 22 17 22 DK/NA 39 42 44 46 46 44 46
18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 48% 13% 81% 41% 43% 51% 21% Disapprove 46 82 15 50 51 42 69 DK/NA 6 5 4 9 6 7 10 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 47% 48% 39% 61% 51% Disapprove 44 46 52 36 45 DK/NA 8 6 9 2 4
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
Oct 21 Aug 20 Jun 10 Apr 16 Feb 19 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 48 47 58 60 64 Disapprove 46 48 35 32 23 DK/NA 6 5 7 8 13
19. Do you approve or disapprove of Charlie Crist's selection of George LeMieux to replace Mel Martinez in the United States Senate?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 34% 40% 29% 36% 39% 30% 46% Disapprove 32 28 37 32 32 33 23 DK/NA 34 31 34 32 30 37 31 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 37% 32% 34% 34% 33% Disapprove 28 29 30 38 39 DK/NA 34 38 36 28 29