Leigh Turner

Ukrainian lessons #3: crisis vocab?

My first ever blog entry last April noted my efforts not to be discouraged when I attempted to speak Ukrainian and people burst out laughing.  In a later entry, I noted learning the invaluable phrases "I completely agree", "I share your opinion", and "You're totally wrong". 

Last week I made some new MP3 files of useful Ukrainian words and phrases, which I listened to for the first time today while walking down to and onto the frozen Dnipr (see photo below).  My excellent Ukrainian teacher always tries to look out vocab from articles and broadcasts which will be useful to me in my contacts with politicians, officials and journalists; so I was intrigued to see how the phrases had evolved over the time I've been learning.  Here are a few:

December 2008: "The political crisis has been overcome" (possibly a bit premature - Ed). January 2009: "To cut off the gas supply"; "unreliable"; and "Europe is today without gas".  March 2009: "In Ukraine no-one is seeking a way out of the crisis".  May 2009: "What can rescue the country?"  June 2009: "Global Financial Crisis".  September 2009: "I feel tired".  October 2009: "It is impermissible to remain indifferent".  January 2010: "[The politician] is accused of trying to disrupt the elections"; and "Each must be responsible for their choice".

It's all splendid stuff, and there are several phrases here I've used often (guess which).  The question is, what phrases will I be learning from the Ukrainian media over the months after the second round of the presidential elections on 7 February?  What do you think?

 Ice fisherman on the frozen Dnipr

Posted at 00:39 31 January 2010 by Leigh Turner  |  Comments[0]

Best of Kyiv: go! business people

I'm at the Hyatt Hotel to present the prize for Business Person of the Year at the Kyiv Post "Best of Kyiv" awards.  The room is crowded with several hundred business types to see who's won a range of awards from "Best Bank Services" and "Best Express Couriers" to "Best Wine Boutique" and "Best Local and International School", with the winners chosen by a mixture of on-line voting and a panel of experts.  It's good to meet Mohammad Zahoor, the British publisher of the Kyiv Post, and the chief editor, Brian Bonner, along with many other old and new faces.

When I go up to present the prize I point out that actually anyone doing business in Ukraine, whether foreign or Ukrainian, is a bit of a hero, given that much remains to be done to improve the business environment here; and that we'll go on lobbying in favour of reform.  I've blogged before on this subject; and published an expanded version of the blog in Investgazeta last year.  There's no doubt that to tackle corruption, deregulate the business environment and actively encourage foreign investors would be a colossal gain for the Ukrainian economy.  Energy experts, for example, have told me that foreign energy firms are desperate to put big money into new oil and gas production in Ukraine, which would increase the country's self-sufficiency in energy and generate valuable tax revenues; but that up to now regulatory obstacles, corruption and the unpredictable legal framework have throttled investment.  So it's encouraging that both candidates in the second round of the presidential elections on 7 February  say they'll take action to combat corruption and promote investment.  I hope whoever wins will take those promises seriously and help realise the awesome economic potential of Ukraine.

The winner of the Kyiv Post Business Person of the Year award, by the way, is Philippe D'Have of L'Oreal.  Congratulations to him - and to every other business person who has made a success of business in Ukraine in the difficult economic and regulatory conditions of the past twelve months.

Posted at 01:24 29 January 2010 by Leigh Turner  |  Comments[0]

How teams fuel dreams in Kyiv and beyond

I've hardly finished speaking when the first student is on her feet.  "When are you coming to Kharkiv?" she asks in excellent English.  I say I hope to go in the next six months.  "We'll be waiting," she says.

I'm at the British Council in Kyiv for to mark a milestone in their "Dreams and Teams" project,  designed to develop leadership skills and an understanding of other cultures in young people through sport and international school links.  There are pupils present from schools in five Ukrainian cities: Kyiv, Lviv, Odesa, Kharkiv and Melitopol, and they're just the kind of high-energy, dynamic bunch you want to engage in youth clubs, sports festivals and school links.  Some of the schools are for children with disabilities, for young offenders, or for children with diabetes.  I'm delighted to find they're linking up with schools in and around Manchester, including Salford City Academy, Brookway High School and Sports College, Our Lady's R.C. Sports College, Broadoak School, and Flixton Girls High School. 

Plenty of questions from the floor.... and a group photo later

When I was at school in Manchester, some of my most formative experiences were the weeks I spent on French and German exchanges, learning not only about languages but about the people who spoke them and the societies they came from.  So I'm a big fan of initiatives like Dreams and Teams which bring together young people from different countries and cultures.  After I've given a short talk and taken questions, one of the teachers approaches me to express her thanks for the British Council's work.  "I'm glad it's helpful," I say.  "Helpful doesn't begin to cover it," the teacher says.  "It's completely transformed our kids." 

As I leave, one of the pupils calls out after me: "Don't forget - we'll be waiting for you in Kharkiv." 

Posted at 18:18 27 January 2010 by Leigh Turner  |  Comments[0]

Afghanistan: Why Ukraine has a special role

One of the most haunting sights in Kyiv is the monument to Ukrainians who fell in Afghanistan during the Soviet intervention from 1979-89.  It shows three soldiers, one sat on the ground with his head bowed.  Around it are the names of the fallen on bronze plaques.  Similar in tone to a combination of the two Vietnam War memorials in Washington DC, it's a sombre contrast to the monumental triumphalism of the memorial to the Great Patriotic War, nearby.

Afghanistan memorial in Kyiv
 
Ukraine's experience of conflict in Afghanistan is a reminder of why "Afghanistan: The London Conference", due to take place on 28 January, is so important. The conference will be co-hosted by Gordon Brown, President Karzai and UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon. 

Its aim, as Paul Arkwright has blogged, is to focus on security, development and governance, and the international architecture to support the Afghan government to see the task through.  The London Conference will include an announcement of the intention to establish an international fund for reintegration.  This fund will help to support Afghan-led efforts to develop an effective and sustainable reintegration programme for those fighters who want a route out of violence and back into normal life.
 
Although Afghanistan is still a painful subject for many Ukrainians who lost family members during the Soviet intervention, Ukraine currently has ten peacekeepers playing a vital part in support of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan, and has recently approved an increase in the ceiling of peacekeepers to 30.  Ukraine has immense experience of peace support operations worldwide, and there are many different roles to be filled.  We hope that, as the focus shifts increasingly to training and assisting the Afghan government, Ukraine will play an important role in international efforts to bring about stability and an end to conflict in Afghanistan.

Posted at 14:43 26 January 2010 by Leigh Turner  |  Comments[2]

Bulgakov? Be happy.

A chilly Sunday in Kyiv: perfect for a visit to the Bulgakov Museum at 13 Andriyivsky Uzviz.  The novelist Mikhail Bulgakov is a symbol of many things, including the complex relationship between Russia and Ukraine.  Born in Kyiv in 1891 of Russian parents at a time when Ukraine was part of the Russian empire, he lived from 1906 to 1919 at No. 13 Andriyivsky Uzviz, an address immortalised in his novel The White Guard, first part-published in 1926 and set in Kyiv.  He moved to Moscow, where he did most of his writing, in Russian, in 1921.   Does that mean he's Russian, or Ukrainian?  You decide.

As it happens I'm hoping to see a production of The White Guard at the National Theatre in London in March, so am swotting up on Bulgakov.  The museum in Kyiv is pretty high-concept, with some of the contents painted white, to symbolise elements from Bulgakov's fiction (eg a greatcoat with a bottle of vodka wrapped in newspaper in the pocket, from The White Guard); and others actual objects or photographs from Bulgakov's life.  Some of the windows are covered in coloured plastic, so that the blaze of snow outside fills the interior with colour; elsewhere we're invited to peer into a mirror which, when the lights are extinguished, is transformed into another room, then a starlit sky (a reference to the closing words of The White Guard).  It's all suitably surreal for this master of magical realism.  Outside, there's a statue of the man on a bench, inviting you to be photographed alongside him.  You can also see the alley between No.13 and the next house, which features in the novel. 

Statue of Mikhail Bulgakov in Kyiv

My companion on the visit, who's just read The White Guard, points out to me that the turbulence in Kyiv during the revolutionary period in which the novel is set makes modern Ukraine seem a model of calm and orderliness.  It's certainly a reminder that although democracy can be messy, it has a track record of working better than most other systems.  This strikes me as a way Bulgakov can cheer you up.

Personally, I find Bulgakov pretty hard going, having failed to finish (understatement - Ed) The Master and Margarita in Russian back in 1994.  But some friends of mine in St Petersburg did me a favour when I was doing language training there in 2008 by encouraging me to watch the splendid 1988 film version of Bulgakov's story Heart of a Dog, or Собачье сердце.  It's cruel, funny and surreal.  So if you fancy a bit of Bulgakov and like movies with a touch of strangeness, check out Heart of a Dog for a second, albeit rather unsettling, way Bulgakov can cheer you up.  I've no doubt hardened Bulgakov fans can suggest many others.

Posted at 18:45 24 January 2010 by Leigh Turner  |  Comments[0]

Edinburgh Business School in Kyiv

Tuesday night at the residence and another great British export to promote.  We're here with a group of students, education experts and business people to mark the launch of the Edinburgh Business School's MBA programme in Ukraine.  It's always great to meet students, and this is no exception: the inaugural group includes lawyers, bankers, business people and doctors, keen to gain the benefit of a world-class business education.  The Director, Professor Keith Lumsden, sets out the benefits of the EBS's internationally recognised MBA diplomas.  The head of the British Council in Ukraine, Margaret Jack, is here too: the Council will be administering the exams for the EBS in Ukraine. 

When people talk about British exports they often think of cars, aircraft and machinery.  But the education sector is a major and growing export earner for the British economy.  That's one reason why, as I said in my recent interview to the Ukrainian newspaper "Den" (check out the great snowflake effect!) British exports to Ukraine in the tough conditions of the first part of 2009 actually rose compared to 2008 (which was itself up on 2007). Thousands of Ukrainians go to the UK to study, because they know we offer some of the best education in the world. Others, like the students tonight, benefit from a British education without leaving Ukraine.  A set-up like the EBS Ukraine operation is a terrific win-win: by helping enhance the human capital of Ukraine, it will help boost economic growth prospects for the future, as well as the skills and CVs of the individual students.  So, all you employers out there wanting to recruit Ukrainian employees with top quality business skills?  You now know where to look.

Posted at 00:28 20 January 2010 by Leigh Turner  |  Comments[2]

A Day in the Ukrainian Countryside as an OSCE Observer

A guest blog by John Foreman, Defence Attache, British Embassy Kyiv

It’s 8 a.m. on a Sunday morning at a small Ukrainian polling station.  The local election commission has given one of their volunteers the honour of being first to vote.  The clock ticks, the man votes to a round of applause and the doors are flung open.  Voters start to trickle into the polling station, trussed up against the freezing weather.

I'm here with an embassy colleague as a short-term election monitor for the Organisation for Security and Co-operation (OSCE) in Europe.  Other teams are fanned out across the country.  Our team has been assigned to Cherkasy oblast, situated in the middle of the country and the birthplace to two of the most important Ukrainian national heroes, Taras Shevchenko and Bohdan Khmelnytsky.  OSCE long term observers, who have been working on the area for a couple of months, give us a list of 179 polling stations.  We are asked to visit 10 different locations. 

We decide to visit remote rural areas.  Fortunately the roads are passable despite ice and drifted snow.  Over the day, we cover 250 km, visiting polling stations in schools, sports halls, farm clubs and theatres.  Ukrainian choral music blasts out from one; in another a budding entrepreneur is running a small shop.  Everyone is friendly; one flame-haired commission head thanks us for choosing her station and for supporting their new democracy.  On learning that we are from the UK, some locals try out their English and we are even presented to a class of 10 years to say a few words.  We talk to the heads of the local election commissions to learn of any problems in the run up to the elections and observe the voting.  We then complete observation forms to send to Kyiv to be collated with those from other OSCE teams.

The efforts of locals to vote are inspiring.  Far beyond the reach of public transport, old and young trudge along small roads, determined to make their voice heard.  When one old lady votes and then slumps into a chair, commission members revive her with a stiff drink and warm words. 
 
The polls close at 2000 and we watch the count.  It's been a long, exciting day and everyone is tired.  The votes are emptied onto the table, counted, re-counted and then recorded officially.  When all are content, three commission members, accompanied by a policeman, squeeze into a Lada and race off down the icy roads towards the local district election office to deliver the results.  We follow in pursuit.  On arrival, a huge, jostling crowd from other voting districts is already there.  It’s going to be a long night.  We hand over to another OSCE team who will remain overnight and at 0200 try and find some food.

Posted at 16:24 19 January 2010 by Leigh Turner  |  Comments[0]

Ukrainian election. Is that it? No it's not.

Is that it?  After all the build-up of the past few months, the first round of the presidential election in Ukraine on 17 January seems to have been... normal.  I've spoken to several OSCE/ODIHR observers and others who were officially accredited to visit polling stations around the country on the day.  All told tales of peaceful scenes, ballot boxes supervised by representatives of different parties, electoral officials doing their best to make sure things worked, and so on.  Then on 18 January the OSCE/ODIHR mission presented its "Statement of Preliminary Findings and Conclusions" on the 17 January poll.  The key finding was that: "The first round of the 17 January presidential election in Ukraine was of high quality and showed significant progress over previous elections.  The election met most OSCE and Council of Europe commitments.  Civil and political rights were respected, including freedom of assembly, association and expression.  Election day was conducted in an efficient and orderly manner."

Efficient, orderly... it all sounds a bit dull, right?  Well, the conduct of elections is one area where routine, humdrum and regular are all good and surprises, excitement and weird things happening are bad.  The OSCE/ODIHR conclusion shows that the fears expressed before the election of massive vote-rigging were unfounded.  It also sets the stage for the second round, on 7 February, when there will be a run-off between the two leading candidates, Victor Yanukovych and Julia Tymoshenko.  The European Commission has issued a good statement welcoming the OSCE/ODIHR findings and calling on Ukraine's leaders to ensure that the second round takes place "in a similarly peaceful environment and that it will build on the positive aspects of the first round". 

Wise words.  The Ukrainian presidential election is far from over.  The second round will be hard-fought, and the stakes are high.  That makes it all the more important that the two camps continue to take the OSCE/ODIHR team into their confidence to maximise the chances of the second round running as smoothly as the first; and to minimise the likelihood of anyone crying foul afterwards.  That way, whoever wins will be able to declare the presidential campaign done and dusted and get on with running the country as soon as is reasonably possible.

PS My polling-day blog of 17 January noted that there would be several exit polls published at 20.00 when polls closed, and noted concern about whether they would be accurate.  In the event, with over 99% of the vote counted, the results show that several of the exit polls were in fact highly accurate.  Congratulations to the organisations concerned!  If forecasts are equally accurate in the second round on 7 February that will be a sign that in Ukraine exit polling, too, is now "of high quality".

Posted at 11:32 19 January 2010 by Leigh Turner  |  Comments[0]

Voting day in Kyiv

Voting day in Kyiv today, 17 January and you can see why a veteran (British) politician said to me the other day it was preferable not to hold elections in winter.  With a maximum of minus ten degrees Celsius predicted for Kyiv today and steady snow adding to existing falls, conditions are treacherous for would-be voters.  A stroll past a few polling stations shows quite a flow of people in and out, many of the more elderly decked out with stout walking sticks, rubber galoshes and thick coats of fur or sheepskin.

The first indication of how the vote has gone will be the exit polls which are due to be released as soon as voting finishes at 8 p.m. local time. According to the BBC, there will be no less than six different exit polls, including a "National Exit Poll" organised by three polling institutes, plus others organised by TV channels or newspapers.  Some people argue that these will be more accurate than the various polls conducted through the campaign, not least because the large numbers of "don't knows" will now have made up their minds.  But others will view them with the same scepticism as the earlier polls, alleging that they have been manipulated by political parties.  It will be interesting to see how close the exit polls are to each other - and, most important of all, to the official results.

Posted at 16:16 17 January 2010 by Leigh Turner  |  Comments[1]

Kyiv calm

The Saturday before the elections dawns bright and snowy in Kyiv, with fresh snow overnight and more as the day goes on.  On a walk, treading carefully through the snow and ice, it's good to see everyone out and about: couples strolling around the "Motherland" statue, a wedding party at the war memorial, tourists and the faithful milling around the entrance to the magnificent, walled, Pechersk Lavra (monastery).  A few people are working, like the building workers out pouring concrete for a new building near my house at minus ten degrees in a snowstorm: respect to them.  Kyiv's full of hills and, consequently, places to slide down: many families are out enjoying the winter with toboggans, plastic bags and other forms of gravity-enhancing devices (but no police riot shields - excellent video).  The oddest feature of the landscape is the complete absence of election advertising, which is illegal on the day before the vote; the empty billboards are eerie.  Next step: stand back and watch tomorrow's vote.  

Empty election billboards in Kyiv (count 'em!)

Posted at 22:15 16 January 2010 by Leigh Turner  |  Comments[0]

Ukraine votes: an unashamed plug for my article

Friday night in Kyiv and the temperature, figuratively at least, is rising (actual weather forecast is here).  In two days the country will go to the polls.  In the centre of town a political rally brings crowds onto the streets, their breath forming clouds in the cold night air.  Across the city, workers are taking down the political advertising which has swamped the billboards for the past few months and which must all be gone by midnight.  As I type this, I'm flicking between two of the main TV channels, each of which is giving a different candidate a chance to present a final set of arguments to the electorate.   The last couple of days have seen a host of international observers arrive and fan out across the country.  It all feels pretty exciting.  I'm looking forward to the first round vote on Sunday to see what happens.

Meanwhile back at the embassy... the Guardian has today published on-line an article I wrote this week about the Ukrainian elections and why they matter to the UK, to Europe and beyond.  Check it out.  I'd be keen to know if you agree with the basic proposition.  I've been fascinated since the piece was published around lunchtime on Friday to see the comments people have made on it on the Guardian web-site.   Many strong opinions!  Though unfortunately not many seem to be from Ukrainians.  All comments welcome.

If you want to see a Ukrainian version of the Guardian article, there's a translation here. 

Posted at 22:06 15 January 2010 by Leigh Turner  |  Comments[4]

Good news about electoral fraud?

For months now, Ukrainian political parties have been accusing each other of preparing massive fraud during the first and second rounds of the Ukrainian presidential election on 17 January and 7 February.  So I'm intrigued to hear several respected experts express the view this week that, in fact, many of the accusations being thrown around in Kyiv are exaggerated.  The experts argue that the fact each presidential candidate is allowed to allocate two of his or her own people to each of the local election commissions will help reduce the risk of electoral fraud.  Moreoever, they point out, each of the main political camps is watching each of the others closely for the same reason at national, regional and local level - and in several cases is devoting massive resources to the task.  They note that the new electoral register, prepared with the help of UK funding, is a great improvement on its predecessor.  Add in the efforts of international observers, the experts say, and it will be far harder to fix results than many are claiming.

Some of these suggestions produce hollow laughter from other electoral experts in Kyiv.  Those people allocated by candidates to local electoral commissions, the sceptics argue, could be sleepers for other parties or just plain unreliable, particularly where minor candidates are concerned.  There are simply too many polling stations (33,000) to supervise properly.  And so on. Fraud, these experts argue, is inevitable.

I think they're both right.  On the one hand, fraud in the Ukrainian electoral system is potentially a problem, and it's vital that election commissions at local and national level plus the various political camps and the international observers do everything they can to ensure the election is clean.  At the same time, the argument that some parties may be tempted to big up the supposed risk of fraud so as to prepare the ground to cry foul after the election - whatever the result - has the ring of plausibility.  The assessment that some of the concerns expressed about fraud may in fact be exaggerated would support such a thesis.  I've blogged before about this, and about the need to use the excellent offices of the OSCE/ODIHR observer mission both to minimise the risk of fraud during the election and to make it as hard as possible for anyone to raise unjustified concerns afterwards. 

The good news is that, according to OSCE/ODIHR, all the main electoral camps are so far co-operating fully with the mission and have been raising many cases of potential fraud so that the OSCE/ODIHR experts can investigate and, where necessary, make recommendations to reduce the risks.  Let's hope such co-operation continues so that all concerned can maximise the chances of the forthcoming election being as free and fair as possible - and a further step towards the consolidation of Ukraine's reputation as a democratic leader in the region.

Posted at 22:29 14 January 2010 by Leigh Turner  |  Comments[0]

Ukrainian election interview

I've blogged before about the importance of the OSCE/ODIHR electoral observer mission for the Ukrainian presidential elections on 17 January and 7 February and how all the parties in Ukraine can use OSCE/ODIHR to help minimise the risk of electoral fraud.  Here's a recent interview I did for the BBC's excellent Ukrainian Service on the subject.  I also talk a bit about Crimea, why it's different from Georgia, and how to lessen any risk of conflict down there.  The interview is in English with Ukrainian subtitles.

Posted at 08:07 11 January 2010 by Leigh Turner  |  Comments[2]

If you love somebody set them free

Is the heavy winter snow of the past few weeks being cleared effectively in Kyiv?  How has it been in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk or Lviv?  Is there more that could be done at local level?  Or is this something which the central government should sort out?

The balance of power between local and central government is a puzzle for every country.  The UK has had several tries over the past 40 years at re-organising counties, devolving power to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, and setting up regions in England.  Few people would argue that the present set-up is exactly right.  But there is a widely-accepted principle that it's right to devolve maximum power to the most local level that makes sense.  Central government shouldn't be involved in micro-managing education, fire services or public transport, because that generates bureaucracy and bad decisions. This principle is sometimes known as subsidiarity, particularly in the context of the relationship between EU institutions and EU member states. 

This is relevant in Ukraine because one of the charges levelled at some of the presidential candidates is that they're too keen to re-centralise power.  I'm not talking here about the relationship between president and  parliament, although that might be up for reform also.  Rather, it's the suggestion that cities and regions throughout Ukraine have been doing their own thing rather too much and need to be brought to heel.  For their part, the cities complain that they send their tax money off to Kyiv, but receive little in return.  The tension is understandable to some extent, particularly for the older generation who grew up in a system where everything was set out in a five-year plan and controlled from Moscow.  And it's fair enough that whoever is elected president on 7 February should take a close look at the whole set-up and make sure that the overall framework of governance is working properly. 

At the same time, my travels around Ukraine have convinced me that one of the great strengths of this country is its diversity.  Result: even when things haven't been going too well at national level, some cities and regions have continued to make progress or have been able to learn from the good examples of others (eg in setting up conditions which attract foreign investment).  So, based on what I've seen so far, I'd be inclined to encourage Ukraine's next president to pay attention to the subsidiarity principle in proposing any reform of the relationship between the capital and the regions; avoid any temptation to centralise all the power in Kyiv; and ensure the cities and regions of this splendidly multipolar country have enough freedom to develop and spread best practice.  Or am I wrong?

PS in case anyone's wondering, yes, I had in mind the old Sting track (great song, odd video).  I debated with experts whether the title might make anyone think I was advocating separatism - I'm not - and whether I should call it something else, eg "Five Year Plans and Subsidiarity", but decided against on the grounds that the original was snappier.  So there's another question: does the title of a blog matter?

Posted at 13:20 10 January 2010 by Leigh Turner  |  Comments[4]

Is there a "real" Christmas?

I was interested to see Chris Wilson's blog about snow in Beijing.  It's been chilly in Kyiv too: when I arrived back from London this week the day-time temperature was minus15 degrees Celsius.  After several heavy falls of snow, the Ukrainian capital is sheathed in drifts.  A city-centre walk generates crisp, underfoot crunchiness.  As in the UK, more snow is forecast this week.  In fact it's snowing heavily as I write this.  Although  I'd welcome some of the bright blue sky Chris mentions in Beijing, it is difficult to imagine a whiter Christmas than we expect here tomorrow.            

Brits working in Ukraine have the privilege of two Christmases.  Like many inter-cultural experiences, it's a reminder that reality can be interpreted in many ways.  Arguably, neither 25 December nor 7 January is the "real" or "original" Christmas - it depends where you're standing and how dates work.  For myself, having enjoyed a family celebration in Manchester on 25 December I shall be in Kyiv for the Orthodox Christmas on 7 January - just ten days before the first round of the presidential elections on the 17th.  As in many other countries (see eg this blog from Martin Uden in Seoul or this one from Gary Benham, based in Pretoria) 2010 will be an important year for Ukraine, with the prospect of the elections bringing a new impetus to the governance of this important European country.  Let's hope that happens.  З Новим Роком та Щасливого Різдва (Happy New Year and Happy Christmas) to all of you. 

Christmas snow in downtown Kyiv

Posted at 12:00 06 January 2010 by Leigh Turner  |  Comments[2]