News - Eurovision results analysis: Voting blocs & diasporas | Eurovision Song Contest News - Germany 2011 

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Marcus Klier

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2/Jun at 11:27

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Part 4

Eurovision results analysis: Voting blocs & diasporas

As always after the Eurovision Song Contest, we take a look at the results from a statistical point of view. The analysis is split into four parts and the fourth part is dedicated to the question of bloc voting and diaspora voting.

To find out how the three classic voting blocs - the Nordic countries, the former Yugoslav countries and the former USSR countries - have voted, we take a look at those blocs' results. As no country can vote for itself, contestants that are not part of these blocs would have an advantage in these statistics. Therefore, we do not consider the absolute scores but the averages votes cast.

The Nordic countries (Iceland, Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark):

  1. Germany - 10.20
  2. Denmark - 7.50
  3. Romania - 6.60
  4. Belgium - 6.20
  5. France - 5.00
  6. Iceland - 3.50
  7. Turkey - 3.20
  8. Norway - 3.00
    Greece - 3.00
    Israel - 3.00
  9. Azerbaijan - 2.60
  10. Georgia - 1.80
  11. Serbia - 1.40
    Albania - 1.40
  12. Portugal - 1.00
  13. Spain - 0.80
  14. Cyprus - 0.80
  15. Ireland - 0.20
    Armenia - 0.20
  16. Moldova - 0.00
    Bosnia & Herzegovina - 0.00
    Belarus - 0.00
    United Kingdom - 0.00
    Ukraine - 0.00
    Russia - 0.00 

As we can see, winning country Germany was the clear favourite in the Nordic countries getting a far higher average of points from the Nordic countries than from all countries in total. In fact, Iceland was the only country of these that did not give 12 points to Satellite. On the other hand, all three Nordic countries in the final would have reached the top ten with Denmark gaining two places (2nd instead of 4th), Iceland gaining 13 places (6th instead of 19th) and Norway gaining 12 places (8th instead of 20th). Other countries that would have done better if only the Nordic countries had voted include France (5th instead of 12th), Israel (8th instead of 14th), Cyprus and Ireland. Other countries would have finished remarkably lower, most notably Ukraine, whose entry finished in the top ten of the Eurovision Song Contest but got not a single point from the Nordic countries. Armenia would have also been found towards the end of the scoreboard despite being seen in sixth place by all countries.


The countries of former Yugoslavia (Bosnia & Herzegovina, Croatia, FYR Macedonia, Slovenia, Serbia):

  1. Serbia - 8.75
  2. Germany - 8.00
    Bosnia & Herzegovina - 8.00
  3. Turkey - 7.40
  4. Albania - 4.40
  5. Georgia - 3.40
  6. Greece - 3.20
    Denmark - 3.20
  7. Romania - 3.00
  8. France - 2.80
  9. Azerbaijan - 2.00
  10. Ukraine - 1.40
    Israel - 1.40
  11. Belgium - 1.00
    Spain - 1.00
    Armenia - 1.00
  12. Cyprus - 0.80
  13. Portugal - 0.40
  14. Ireland - 0.20
  15. Norway - 0.00
    Moldova - 0.00
    Belarus - 0.00
    United Kingdom - 0.00
    Iceland - 0.00
    Russia - 0.00 

Only two formerly Yugoslav countries made the final this year and in fact, Serbia and Bosnia & Herzegovina would have finished first and equal second respectively with only this bloc voting. In fact, they finished 13th and 17th in the final respectively. Germany was still seen in second place getting the same average amount of points as Bosnia & Herzegovina. Albania, which is sometimes considered a part of this bloc as well, would have been placed fourth by these countries despite only finishing 16th in the final. 


The former USSR countries (Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Latvia, Azerbaijan, Lithuania, Moldova, Ukraine, Estonia, Georgia):

  1. Georgia - 7.67
  2. Russia - 7.56
  3. Ukraine - 7.00
  4. Azerbaijan - 4.78
  5. Germany - 4.60
  6. Armenia - 4.44
  7. Turkey - 3.80
  8. Spain - 3.40
  9. Romania - 3.10
  10. Denmark - 2.80
  11. Israel - 2.10
  12. Belgium - 2.00
  13. Belarus - 1.89
  14. Norway - 1.50
  15. Moldova - 1.22
  16. Portugal - 1.00
  17. France - 0.70
  18. Iceland - 0.60
  19. Greece - 0.50
    United Kingdom - 0.50
  20. Ireland - 0.20
  21. Cyprus - 0.10
  22. Bosnia & Herzegovina - 0.00
    Serbia - 0.00
    Albania - 0.00

If only the former Soviet countries had voted, the top four would have all come from this bloc with Georgia (9th in the final) winning the Eurovision Song Contest ahead of Russia (11th in the final), Ukraine (10th in the final) and Azerbaijan (5th in the final). Remarkably, Azerbaijan was the most successful country in the actual voting out of this bloc. Winning country Germany was the most popular one apart from this bloc and would have finished fifth. Moldova and Belarus would have both finished in higher positions while Armenia would have kept its sixth place.

Again, probably due to the introduction of jury voting, diaspora seemed slightly reduced compared to the years before 2009. To name just a few examples: Germany did not give its 12 points to Turkey or Greece for the second time since 2003 and for the second time ever Armenia did not receive 10 or 12 points from Belgium. 

You can also read the other parts of this series: 

  1. Numbers and statistics in the final
  2. Numbers and statistics in the semi final
  3. What if...?

Related polls




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Whatever ... ORIGINAL ... [29486]
Sun 6 Jun 2010 18:36:33

Further to my main comment
--> http://www.esctoday.(...)offset=108#reactions

Here are the Top 10 results:

1.Germany - 246 (ESC 2010 winner -- shared 2/3 with USA and DENMARK --
since "Satellite" was NOT even written by Germans (still, 1/3 for Lena :))

2.Turkey - 170 ( with a whopping -76 points difference from the ESC winning SONG)
3.Romania - 162 ( -12 points difference from No. 2)

and these were the Top 3

BUT the rest --each-- could have just as easily been placed in
order NO. 4 (or higher) because there is a very SMALL difference in points
---------------------- AS YOU CAN CLEARLY SEE------------------


4.Denmark - 149 ( with a notable -13 points difference from No. 3)

5.Azerbaijan - 145 ( - 4 points ONLY from No. 4)
6.Belgium - 143 ( - 6 points ONLY from No. 4)
7.Armenia - 141 ( - 8 points ONLY from No. 4)

8.GREECE - 140 ( - 9 points ONLY from No. 4
----- and this, only because there were absolutely NO votes from Baltic states
and NO votes from ex-Soviets ... whatsoever (!!?!!?!!) ;)
as in ... 0 point "received" from any one of those countries ...
but NOT because they did not like the song OR the performance...(!!!!!) ;); it was because it was ... STRONG song !!!!!!!
... As expected, NO points came from our "neighbour" FYROM ...
You know, it is that country using a ...STOLEN ...historical ;) GREEK name!!!!!!!

So, NOW you can do the math where Greece could have placed ...

9.Georgia - 136 ( notable - 13 points difference from No. 4)

10.Ukraine - 108 ( significant - 41 points difference from No. 4)


rost [62997]
Sun 6 Jun 2010 17:05:35

SHARE THE BURDEN!!!
Just about time for th "big4" to show ... to show...
well whatever


SR Jensen [54583]
Sun 6 Jun 2010 13:56:28

Diego D.
Yes, I hope EBU reads this and changes the voting system next year.
As for juries - I think it will be very difiicult to avoid subjective votes from jurors. Especially if you have to check up on 39 juries afterwards - and what to do if any juror was found "cheating". Maybe there should be 1 jury, like in sport events, with members from different countries. Or - even better - the Marcel Bezençon Awards should be included as an official part of the show, so that in fact 4 Grand Prizes were given. one from the public, one for best song (composer/lyricist), one for best performer and one for best presentation. So that things like technical scills and creativity could be rewarded separately.


rost [62997]
Sun 6 Jun 2010 00:17:02

Well,
Germany's this win year - just showed tha all that "diaspora" "Block" voting - is as just a poor excuse for contries who just DO NO TRY!!!
In what block is Gernany?
Scans, yugos,ex-rus - -
The remedy is well shown this year!! --
ANYONE can do -
it's just a matter of a GOOD SONG - that's it!!!!!


Diego D. [23778]
Sat 5 Jun 2010 05:18:05

Thanks for your comments to my previous post.

SR Jansen, RBN Evighet Aenslan:
Actually, we are just missing the possibilities of having a more statistically reliable result because the needed data is obtained and registered by the IT televoting equipment of the TV broadcasters or subcontractors. If every participating country could give points to all the entries (from 1 to 17, or 1 to 24) many more people would be encouraged to vote because the beloved song could get at least 1 point. Every call or sms will be useful.

Eurovisionary:
Regarding the jury, I think that the grade of subjectivity of their vote should be reduced. They are professionals and could follow a systematic procedure for voting, just as it happens in gymnastics, board diving or figure skating. They should have a technical sheet with all the parameter to qualify in a well defined scale (i.g. vocal execution of the song, originality of the composition, arrangements, staging, performance, commercial projection of the entry, and so forth, and perhaps a 10% for their subjective appreciation). The sheets could be published on internet after the contest.

These measures will reduce the negative influence of "bloc voting" in the final results. There is no need to fight against the subjective preferences of people from different European countries. We just should welcome cultural diversity!


Laila ♥ Peter Nalitch ♪ ♫ [58775]
Sat 5 Jun 2010 01:24:08

So the Turkish jury (= professionals) gave points to Russia, but the televoting didn't, interesting, lol.

Anyway, apart from the block-voting - the obvious and worthy winner was Germany, so congrats again!


Manuel (Germany) [34658]
Fri 4 Jun 2010 23:57:25

Some jury votes: http://eurovisiontim(...)jury-votes-revealed/
WHo voted for Turkey, Russia, Germany (more to follow): http://eurovisiontim(...)o-voted-for-germany/


TurQuality's Fire [45505]
Fri 4 Jun 2010 11:18:39

%50 combined results :

12 Puan Azerbaycan
10 Puan Almanya
8 Puan Bosna&Hersek
7 Puan Arnavutluk
6 Puan Ermenistan
5 Puan Gürcistan
4 Puan Rusya
3 Puan Yunanistan
2 Puan Romanya
1 Puan Ukrayna


TurQuality's Fire [45505]
Fri 4 Jun 2010 11:14:28

These are official Turkish jurry and televote results..

Jurry Results

1 Puan Norveç
2 Puan Gürcistan
3 Puan Romanya
4 Puan Ukrayna
5 Puan Moldova
6 Puan Almanya
7 Puan Rusya
8 Puan Bosna&Hersek
10 Puan Arnavutluk
12 Puan Azerbaycan

Televoting Results

58.474 Azerbaycan 12 Puan
11.154 Ermenistan 10 Puan
10.787 Almanya 8 Puan
6.393 Gürcistan 7 Puan
4.716 Yunanistan 6 Puan
4.627 Bosna&Hersek 5 Puan
4.225 Fransa 4 Puan
3.882 Romanya 3 Puan
3.464 Ukrayna 2 Puan
2.779 Arnavutluk 1 Puan

just missing out

2.455 İrlanda
2.455 Moldova
2.218 Rusya


Eurovisionary [61046]
Fri 4 Jun 2010 04:14:08

I'm not sure awarding each song in order from 25pts to 1pt is a good idea. For televote it's easy because every country would get some votes, therefore their place is easy to see. With jury, you would require them to rate every song in order, rather than just their top 10. Then I doubt it would have much impact on so-called "problems".

I also don't understand the fuss about the winner. It's 1% of the entire ESC experience when you consider the shows and national finals and chatting. Winning just means you host it the following year. That matters little other than to the host. For TV viewers, the arena and set could be anywhere and the contest always stays the same.


@w s

Thnx for the information + the links! ;)

It's really sad, we will never see Anouk representing Netherlands in Eurovision just because NOS had already made a deal with De Toppers! :( And about the FB group, why are they doing this? Belgians and Dutchmen are closely related with each other!


w s [29210]
Fri 4 Jun 2010 01:39:58

In 2009 there were contacts between NOS and Anouk about going to Moscow. But at the same time NOS had already made a deal with De Toppers. And Anouk was not amused, to put it mildly.

And the campaign is the Facebook link I posted earlier. A Belgian student made that Facebook group, to make sure that Belgium never ever gives points anymore to the Netherlands in the future. It has already more then 12.000 members. The group is called: "Only 6 points. Never trust a Dutchman".


@w s

Go ahead, what do you mean with the campaign? :O And fiasco?


Марко из Србије [60087]
Thu 3 Jun 2010 22:25:59

But Belgium gave 0 to France! So France should be angry at Belgium for 0 points?! :S


w s [29210]
Thu 3 Jun 2010 19:30:19

I read the rumors about Thomas Berge. He already represented us in the last EDC (finishing last). I am not too fond of him, too many tacky songs. But TROS has already denied the rumor. No decisions have been made yet. (Frankly it is a bit early imo.)

And Kenan, I would love to see Anouk in eurovison. And I know that she would get lots of points from Belgium, whatever the campaign to not vote for the Netherlands.
But I fear there are no chances anymore since the fiasco last year, when she was rumored for a short time.


and if thomas berge represents the netherlands as I read on oikotimes then a place in the final is pretty possible..!

... or Anouk! (L) She's fantastic! (L)


just me and my guitar.. [61885]
Thu 3 Jun 2010 19:24:22

and if thomas berge represents the netherlands as I read on oikotimes then a place in the final is pretty possible..!


just me and my guitar.. [61885]
Thu 3 Jun 2010 19:21:14

@ w s

apart from the fact that i thought the netherlands would be more interested in esc since they won a eurovision event in november (although jesc is not considered a success by me even though laura did well..) i hoped that the fact that belgium did it al least would make them to watch the event and support tom (who entered the dutch charts..)...i don't agree with the group but i consider it reasonable in terms of placing would have been different if there was enough support in the netherlands and if not from the public at least from the jury vote...anyway we got a 12p from germany and we thank the winning nation for that.
i just don't want the dutch to complain if tables turn in the next esc and the netherlands qualify and we won't give them a top 3 place on the belgian vote..


w s [29210]
Thu 3 Jun 2010 19:12:01

And about Yolanthe Cabau giving the Dutch vote. Well, it must be hard to announce yet again the 12 points to Armenia. Everybody knows that it is because of diaspora. And Yolanthe knows that everybody knows. I think that in the end the way she brought it, made it more obvious then telling the truth.


w s [29210]
Thu 3 Jun 2010 19:06:22

Thanx for the reply. I am rather annoyed by some of the reactions I heard by some Flemish. In all previous years the televoting in the Netherlands (and Belgium) was dominated by diaspora voting. That was no different this year. Of course the Dutch were happy Tom qualified to the final. But in the big scheme of things it was not that important. The contest is in the Netherlands far less popular then in Flanders. Most people don't care for it, and since Sieneke didn't qualify not that many people watched it. Apart from that it had to compete against the final of X Factor on RTL.

I understand the disappointment by the Belgians. But you can't blame the Dutch that a few points extra would have made such a difference in the final ranking.
But when I saw those 6 points on the scoreboard, I knew that the Netherlands would get all the blame. Every frustration comes out. It happens every time.
http://www.facebook.(...)477352361&v=wall
More then 12.000 members has that Facebook page! Come on. Those people seriously should get a life. I am sure had it been the other way, the Dutch would have acted a lot different. And I am sure that the numerous Dutch that have voted for Tom, will think twice the next time, should they know about this.

But most important I get annoyed by the hypocricy. I read comments about the evil Balkans and eastern Europe, while at the same time complaining about the greedy "Ollanders".


Manuel (Germany) [34658]
Thu 3 Jun 2010 18:56:27

Cool analysis I found: http://eurovisiontim(...)ysis-1-the-bottom-5/


just me and my guitar.. [61885]
Thu 3 Jun 2010 18:43:47

@ w s

i can't tell you that i wasn't dissapointed especially because of the fact that with a couple more points tom would be 5th or 4th...it was a "betrayal" but as I always said I m not a big fan of regional vote i can't complain that much...but yes it was a great dissapointment in belgium and i felt very sad when i saw it..again diaspora in the netherlands was stronger than the neighbouring bonds..i expected that after so many years of missing the final the netherlands would support..

I also consider the dutch woman announcing the results either a bit out of reality or she didn't want to mention the facts..she actually said "there are a lot of dutch men who voted as 12p go to armenia..!"
come on ! i mean really...either say the truth ("once again the armenians voted for their entry" ;) or say nothing it's much better than saying something so naive..!


w s [29210]
Thu 3 Jun 2010 15:28:33

Come on, nobody cheats. The system allows us to vote up to 20 times per phone. If you give people that ability, than don't be surprised they actually use it.


w s [29210]
Thu 3 Jun 2010 15:15:25

@just me and my guitar, What do you think of the uproar in Belgium about the notorious 6 points from the Netherlands?


Butterfly time [56274]
Thu 3 Jun 2010 14:36:28

Cool! I knew the former USSR-bloc was the worst cheaters.


just me and my guitar.. [61885]
Thu 3 Jun 2010 14:23:09

The only thing I have to say about the ex soviet result is just....VULGAR ! Actually more that that ! if i was the russian broadcaster and had an essential dignity i would withdraw from the contest..they can't be saved ! their juries their televote..eveything is a mess ! it can't be fixed ! the only way for them to vote for an actual entry and not for a country is the entries to remain secret till the contest and be presented without introducing the country the come from..but even with that they d hear their languages at times and they d see their artists and they would vote :S :S !!! what are we going to do with those ?? truly I think i ll never vote for one of these countries just because they vote that way...that's unfortunately the only way to save us from them...be unobjective and regionalistic like them ! :S


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