District by district - Hawaii

HAWAII-01

Republican leads in Obama’s home state

Rep. Charles Djou (R-Hawaii), who won a special election this past May with less than 40 percent of the vote, currently leads Democrat Colleen Hanabusa 45 percent to 41, with 12 percent of likely voters undecided, according to The Hill’s 2010 Midterm Election Poll.

After Hanabusa and ex-Rep. Ed Case (D-Hawaii) split the Democratic vote in May, paving the way for Djou’s victory, Democrats were supposed to have a fairly easy time taking this district back in the fall. But Djou is proving to be a good candidate, and his favorables are above 60 percent in an overwhelmingly Democratic district.

Djou has a solid lead among male voters, but only leads by one point among females. Hanabusa’s strength is among younger voters — she gets 60 percent of their support — while voters aged 35-54 break for Djou. Voters 55 and older are evenly split — 43 percent for Hanabusa and 43 percent for Djou.

Obama also isn’t helping Hanabusa, even with his solid approval numbers in the district. This is one of just two districts where the president’s approval is net positive, with 64 percent of all likely voters approving of the president. Among independents, Obama’s approval is 57 percent.

A loss for Democrats here, in Obama’s home district and state, wouldn’t be a good omen for the party on election night.

And the party is spending to make sure that doesn’t happen. The DCCC has invested about $410,000 in this district.

The Hill’s poll was conducted Oct. 2-7, surveyed 406 likely voters via the telephone and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.