Egypt: Brotherhood Expected to Lose Seats
November 23rd, 2010 by Jason
In an article in Al Masry Al Youm, Noha El-Hennawy says that the Muslim Brotherhood is expected to suffer a “remarkable retreat” in Sunday’s election and will likely be replaced with the liberal Wafd party. As El-Hennawy explains, the unprecedented success of the Brotherhood in 2005, when the outlawed group won 88 seats with members running as independents, has lead the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) to crackdown on the party. Wafd party looks to be in the best position to capitalize on this turn of events, although Mohamed Sherdy, the Wafd Party’s official spokesman, seems less optimistic: “‘I was pro-election and pro-participation but if we could go back in time, I think we should really reconsider it […] I do not think they (the government) want anybody from the opposition, they are chocking (sic) the opposition.’”
Also, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy released an audio recording of a Policy Forum held yesterday on the Egyptian elections and U.S. policy towards Egypt. The discussants included Dina Guirguis, a Keston Family research fellow with the Washington Institute’s Project Fikra, David Schenker, the Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at the Washington Institute, and Leslie Campbell, a senior associate and regional director of the National Democratic Institute’s (NDI) Middle East and North Africa division.
Posted in Civil Society, Egypt, Elections, Muslim Brotherhood, Political Parties, US foreign policy | Comment »
Afghanistan: Final Election Results Wednesday, 21 Candidates Disqualified
November 23rd, 2010 by Jason
The final results of the September elections for the Wolesi Jirga (lower house of parliament) will be announced by the Independent Election Commission on Wednesday. The announcement will come on the heels of 21 candidates who “earned a winning number of votes in their distric,” being disqualified “‘[d]ue to irregularities, usage of fake votes and the influence of provincial officials, which created electoral fraud,’” according to Ahmad Zia Rafat, a member of the five-person Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) panel.
Warren P. Strobel and Habib Zohori, in an article for McClatchey, focus on the results in Ghazni province, where Hazara candidates (an ethnic minority) were able to take all 11 provincial seats. “What happened in Ghazni is in dispute. While Pashtun candidates say their votes were stolen, there’s little doubt that polls in the province were among the messiest of a very messy campaign.”
Posted in Afghanistan, Elections, Political Parties, Sectarianism | Comment »
Iraq: The Future of American Influence
November 22nd, 2010 by Jason
In Saturday’s New York Times, Vice President Joe Biden wrote an editorial commending Iraqi politicians for “painstakingly” working through the issues needed to resolve the country’s political stalemate. “By agreeing to form a national partnership government, however, Iraqi leaders have sent an unmistakable message to their fellow citizens, their region and the world: after more than seven years of war and decades of dictatorship, Iraqis seek a nation where the rights of all citizens are recognized and the talents of all are harnessed to unlock the country’s full potential.” The Vice President went on to enumerate the many difficulties facing the new government, including the upcoming census, disagreement over the hydrocarbon law, and the final status of Kirkuk, among others. He also pushes for “continued engagement, including our broader diplomatic presence, a modernization plan for the Iraqi security forces and financing for a police development program.”
In contrast to the Vice President, Mohammad A. Salih, points to the failed attempts by the U.S., including phone calls from Vice President Biden and President Obama, to coerce Kurdish leader Jalal Talibani to step down in favor of Ayad Allawi as “a stark reminder of Washington’s dwindling leverage in Iraq.” And Feisal Amin Rasoul al-Istrabadi argues in an editorial in the Daily Star that “[t]he Obama administration’s Iraq policy is in chaos,” in part because, “Obama is following the example of President George W. Bush, who let the US electoral agenda, rather than American – not to mention Iraqi – national interests, dictate Iraq policy.”
Posted in Elections, Iraq, Political Parties, US foreign policy | Comment »
Egypt: Fractured Ghad Party Illustrates Regime’s Repression of Liberal Parties
November 19th, 2010 by Anna
In an article for Foreign Policy, Eric Trager chronicles the story of Ayman Nour’s Ghad party, highlighting “the remarkably devious tactics through which the [Egyptian] regime stifles even its most prominent opponents.” He observes that there are now two Ghad parties in Egypt: one that is not a legal entity and one that is (and is running 31 candidates in the upcoming parliamentary elections). The former’s persistent criticism of the government prompted the regime to arrest Nour and work to undermine the party. Gradually, Ghad was co-opted by the regime, and Trager writes that today “a vote for Ghad is, in fact, a vote for a pro-Mubarak party.” A pro-Nour faction has remained, and Nour himself has fought to stay relevant by continuing to speak out. He concludes: “It is tempting to believe that, if Washington placed enough pressure on Cairo to liberalize, this reality could change. But Ghad’s story demonstrates that the Mubarak regime’s commitment to stifling its domestic opponents far outweighs the West’s commitment to promoting democratization.”
Posted in Egypt, Elections, Political Parties, US foreign policy | Comment »
Egypt: U.S. Should Have “Positive Impact on Change”
November 19th, 2010 by Jason
In the third and final part of a three-part series (parts one and two) exploring the political environment in Egypt prior to the November 28 parliamentary elections, Dina Guirguis focuses on the role the U.S. should play in pushing for democratic reforms in Egypt. Pointing to numerous “bad omens” including the firing of Ibrahim Eissa, the Egyptian government’s decision to not allow international monitors, and the “major restrictions” placed on domestic monitoring groups by the Shura Council, Guirguis says that “Egyptians are awakening to this reality and demonstrating creative outlets of resistance.” She says that the Obama administration “has thus far proved unwilling to rock the boat on Egypt for the sake of so-called regional interests,” and that “Egypt offers…an opportunity for the United States to have a positive impact on change.” Guirguis recommends “target[ing] known Egyptian human rights abusers” in the same way that recent sanctions have targeted members of the Iranian regime, and that the Obama Administration “should consider dropping its opposition to forward-leaning S. Res. 586 in support of freedom in Egypt,” among other measures.
Posted in Civil Society, Egypt, Elections, Political Parties, Reform, US foreign policy | Comment »
POMED Notes: “Egypt’s Political Future: The Parliamentary Elections and Beyond”
November 18th, 2010 by Jason
The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace held an event on Thursday titled “Egypt’s Political Future: The Parliamentary Elections and Beyond.” The speakers for the event were Michele Dunne, senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment and editor of the online journal, the Arab Reform Bulletin, and Amr Hamzawy, research director and senior associate at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut. The discussion was moderated by Jennifer Windsor, the associate dean for Programs and Studies at the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown.
(To read full notes, continue below the fold or click here for pdf)
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Posted in Civil Society, Egypt, Elections, Freedom, Islamist movements, Muslim Brotherhood, NGOs, Political Parties, Reform, US foreign policy | Comment »
Egypt: Constitutional Amendments Consolidate Control
November 18th, 2010 by Jason
In the second part of a three part series on Egypt (part one here), Dina Guirguis explores the effects of amendments to articles of the Egyptian constitution on Egyptian politics. Article 5, established in 1971 with the purpose of promoting “party pluralism,” was amended in 2007 to “enshrine an existing ban on religious parties and broaden it to preclude ‘political activity with any religious frame of reference.’” Article 88, which originally mandated “full judicial oversight of every polling station, was amended to replace this supervision with an ‘independent electoral commission.’”As Guirguis notes, the E.U. and the U.S. both pushed for the establishment of an independent electoral commission, which has allowed the executive branch (through the commission) to manipulate the electoral process. Article 82 extended more power to the prime minister in the absence of a vice president. Guirguis posits that the prime minister, who is appointed and can be fired by the president, allows Hosni Mubarak, who has never had a vice president, to control his succession, most likely in favor of his son Gamal. Finally, Guirguis addresses the Emergency Law, in effect since 1981, saying that it has been “essentially enshrine[d]” by Article 179. “If and when the Emergency Law is eliminated, as the U.S. administration is urging, Article 179 will nonetheless retain the current law’s most onerous provisions in permanent form.”
Posted in Egypt, Elections, Political Parties | Comment »
Egypt: How Article 76 Constrains Voter Choice
November 17th, 2010 by Jason
On the heels of the announcement that a new group has been formed to support Hosni Mubarak’s run for the presidency next year (with the president’s son Gamal as the group’s second choice), Dina Guirguis, writing at the Washington Institute’s Policy Watch, calls the upcoming parliamentary elections a “dress rehearsal for a much larger event: the 2011 presidential elections.” Guirguis focuses on the effects of amendments made to Article 76 of the Egyptian constitution after the 2005 elections, which constrain the ability of candidates to contest the presidency. “The amendments from 2005 specified that only a political party in existence for five years and holding at least 5 percent of the total number of seats in both chambers of Parliament could nominate a candidate to the presidency from its senior leadership (meaning a member of the party’s upper board, according to its bylaws, provided this person has been a member of the board for at least one year).” As Guirguis points out, there are no candidates that can meet those criteria, and even after several exceptions were included to give the law a “veneer of competition,” the bureaucratic hurdles that must be overcome eliminate all but the most dogged of candidates. Guirguis concludes that the “orchestrated manipulation of the constitution on the issue of contesting the presidency,” is a subject that “deserve[s] much more attention from the Obama administration.”
Posted in Egypt, Elections, Freedom, Political Parties, US foreign policy | Comment »
POMED Notes: “A Changing Middle East: Iran, Turkey, and Prospects for Peace”
November 16th, 2010 by Jason
On Monday evening, as part of the 2010 Foreign Policy Initiative Forum, a panel discussion was held titled “A Changing Middle East: Iran, Turkey, and Prospects for Peace.” The discussants were Elliot Abrams, of the Council on Foreign Relations, Ambassador Eric Edelman, of the Foreign Policy Initiative and Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, and Reuel Gerecht of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. The discussion was moderated by Lee Smith of the Weekly Standard.
(To read full notes, continue below the fold or click here for pdf.)
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Posted in Freedom, Human Rights, Iran, Islamist movements, Israel, Middle Eastern Media, Palestine, Political Parties, Reform, Turkey, US foreign policy | Comment »
Egypt: NDP’s Internal Rifts Affect Election Strategy
November 15th, 2010 by Anna
In his weekly column in Al Masry Al Youm, director of the Cairo Institute for Human Rights Studies Bahey el-din Hassan looks at the National Democratic Party (NDP) leadership’s curious decision to field more than one candidate in many electoral districts. He writes that the “seemingly irrational move” may have to do with the party’s weak discipline: “[h]aving been gradually weakened by power struggles, corruption and factional and family loyalties,” NDP leaders took various steps to guard against the possibility that would-be NDP candidates might run as independents, as happened in 2005. However, whether particular NDP candidates win their contests is as much a factor of “the control exercised by administrative and security bodies over the process” as the actual vote. Ultimately, “the prize will go to…the candidates best able to deploy money, factional and family loyalties, and violence to their advantage.” An alternate explanation for the NDP’s strategy is that internal rifts over President Hosni Mubarak’s successor inhibited party consensus on parliamentary candidates. Hassan states: “[i]t’s impossible to separate the coming parliamentary elections from the 2011 presidential race.”
For more news and analysis on Egypt, sign up for the Egypt Daily Update.
Posted in Egypt, Elections, Political Parties | Comment »
Egypt: New Report Highlights Restrictions on Freedom, Electoral Irregularities
November 15th, 2010 by Anna
The Independent Coalition for Elections’ Observation released a report describing the recent crackdown on civil liberties in Egypt, as well as irregularities in the voting process, according to Al Masry Al Youm. The report – which was authored by the Cairo Institute for Human Rights Studies (CIHRS), the Egyptian Association for Community Participation Enhancement, and Nazra Association for Feminist Studies – criticizes the power given to the state security apparatus in managing the electoral process, mentions irregularities in the candidate registration and campaign process, highlights enforcement problems regarding the new women’s quota, and outlines restrictions on media outlets. Overall, the coalition finds, there is “a general bias towards the ruling party.” A statement by CIHRS asserts that the Egyptian government does not possess the “political will to run free and fair elections and create the necessary political environment in which they could flourish.” According to the report’s main analyst Sobhi Essaila, the report is intended to “offer plenty of facts” in order to inform the public ahead of the parliamentary elections.
Posted in Civil Society, Egypt, Elections, Freedom, Political Parties | Comment »
Iraq: Where Does Allawi Stand?
November 15th, 2010 by Jason
After Iraqiya’s short lived walkout on Thursday, Ayad Allawi made comments to CNN declaring that “‘the concept of power-sharing is dead now […] It’s finished.’” He went on to accuse the current political process of moving Iraq towards a “new dictatorship.” The walkout reportedly occurred as a result of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and others refusing to vote on a power-sharing agreement first, opting instead to vote on who would assume the presidency. There was also the issue of “de-Baathification”, whereby three of Iraqiya’s members had been banned from participating in elections.
According to a report in the New York Times, the Iraqi parliament held a “tranquil session” Saturday, where they voted on a power-sharing agreement. “[M]embers of Iraqiya took part in a low-key session that consisted largely of ceremonial remarks […] In the end, they voted on a general plan for sharing power, but did not address any of the details that have divided the blocs.” Allawi did not attend the session.
Posted in Elections, Iraq, Political Parties | Comment »
Egypt: Security Forces Arrest Activists from Al Ghad, Brotherhood
November 12th, 2010 by Anna
Al Masry Al Youm reports that two activists campaigning for the opposition Al Ghad party in Cairo were briefly arrested by security forces last night. They were accused of promoting an opposition candidate outside the official campaigning window, which starts next week, and were released after being questioned. The candidate they were promoting, Gamila Ismail, said: “The police are trying to target our campaigners because the regime is afraid of our capacity to mobilize voters.” In addition, 14 Muslim Brotherhood candidates were arrested in Monufiya yesterday. They were displaying posters that included the Brotherhood’s “Islam is the solution” slogan.
Posted in Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood, Political Parties | Comment »
Iraq: Walkout Threatens Tenuous Unity Government
November 12th, 2010 by Evan
Just hours into a parliamentary session on Thursday to approve Iraq’s new unity government, members of Ayad Allawi’s Iraqiya coalition staged a walkout. Washington Post reporter Leila Fadel writes that while the walkout did not immediately scuttle the agreement, it is indicative of the “deep divisions and distrust that dominate the country’s political system.” The New York Times’ Steven Lee Myers adds that the incident is a foreshadowing of the serious difficulties Iraqi politicians will face in the coming months: “The government — if it holds together — will be fractured and unwieldy, rife with suspicion, hobbled by a shaky grasp of the rule of law and prone to collapse, or at least chaos.”
Posted in Iraq, Legislation, Political Parties, Sectarianism | Comment »
Iraq: Reactions to New Government
November 11th, 2010 by Jason
The news that politicians in Iraq have managed to form a government is being met with cautious optimism. Max Boot, writing at Commentary, expresses exasperation with the length of the process saying, “[i]t’s hard to know what took so long, since the deal that has finally been reached is not too different from what was envisioned in the beginning.” Marc Lynch warns that there are “plenty of ways for this to go off the tracks,” and also remarks on the unsurprising nature of the agreement. He calls the appointment of Saleh Mutlak to the post of Foreign Minister the “biggest change,” saying that Mutlak could “help appease Saudis and other Arabs […] enticing them into playing a more constructive role in Iraqi affairs.” He also calls the creation of the National Council for Strategic Policies, the “biggest wildcard” to come out of the negotiations. The council, to be headed by Ayad Allawi, “has no Constitutional status, so will have to be created through legislation.” It also lacks clearly defined powers, which Lynch believes could lead to “entrenched intra-government infighting.”
Posted in Iraq, Political Parties | Comment »
POMED Notes: “The Future of the U.S.-Turkey Relationship”
November 11th, 2010 by Evan
The Center for American Progress (CAP) hosted a discussion titled “The Future of the U.S.-Turkey Relationship” on Wednesday. Brian Katulis, senior fellow at CAP, moderated a panel composed of Steven Cook, senior fellow of Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, and Michael Werz, senior fellow at CAP. As part of the larger discussion of Turkey-U.S. relations, the panelists addressed the development of democracy in Turkey.
To read full notes, continue below or click here for a pdf copy.
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Posted in DC Event Notes, Democracy Promotion, Diplomacy, Islam and Democracy, Political Islam, Political Parties, Turkey | Comment »
Iraq: Tentative Deal on Government Formation Reached
November 11th, 2010 by Jason
According to numerous reports, a deal has been reached between Nouri al-Maliki’s coalition and the Sunni dominated coalition led by Ayad Allawi. The deal would allow Maliki to retain the position of prime minister, Jalal Talabani, a Kurd, would retain his current position as president, and the Iraqiya coalition will be allowed to nominate the speaker of the parliament. Osama al-Nujaifi, a member of Iraqiya, has been mentioned as a “leading candidate” for the position. Ayad Allawi will reportedly be the leader of a new, and still undefined, security council.
Posted in Iraq, Political Parties | Comment »
Palestine: Reconciliation Talks Continue, U.S. Boosts Aid for PA
November 10th, 2010 by Anna
Hamas and Fatah representatives met for a second round of reconciliation talks in Damascus yesterday, focusing on issues regarding control of the Palestinian security and governance apparatus. A Fatah authority said: “We realize that reconciliation is a national Palestinian interest.”
Today, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced that the U.S. will give the Palestinian Authority an additional $150 million in aid. The increased funding is an apparent effort to boost the PA’s budget. She added that a “positive outcome” is still possible in Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, in spite of a recent deadlock.
Posted in Foreign Aid, Hamas, Palestine, Political Parties | Comment »
Egypt: Eissa Says Obama Not Pressuring Mubarak on Media Freedom
November 10th, 2010 by Anna
In an interview with David Lepeska in the Columbia Journalism Review, Egyptian journalist Ibrahim Eissa notes that in an effort to control Al Dostor, the government has filed lawsuits, imprisoned Eissa, and threatened the paper’s publishers with millions of pounds in taxes. After finally taking over the paper, Al Dostor is now “a pet newspaper.” He states that although there was a period of increasing media freedom in Egypt during the Bush administration, “Now the Egyptian government seems to have gotten the green light from the Obama administration to go back to the way they were before.” In “not pressuring Mubarak at all,” Obama ignores the possibility that “society is going to implode on itself and destroy those regimes.”
Regarding the upcoming elections, Eissa says: “[m]y sense is there’s going to be a lot of fraud.” He also predicts that Western media outlets will not be allowed to access polling stations during the upcoming parliamentary elections, a strategy that the regime will likely repeat during the presidential race next year. Without an independent media, Egyptians cannot hold their government accountable, and since opposition parties in Egypt “do not speak out,” the media has taken on that role. “The people want change,” Eissa says, but politicians are not pushing for it.
For more news and analysis on Egypt, sign up for the Egypt Daily Update.
Posted in Democracy Promotion, Egypt, Elections, Freedom, Journalism, Political Parties, US foreign policy, US media | Comment »
Iraq: Talabani Being Asked to Step Down
November 9th, 2010 by Jason
According to a report by the Christian Science Monitor’s Jane Arraf, Iraq’s current president, Jalal Talabani, is being asked to step down. “Political sources say although Iraqiya is publicly still insisting on the prime ministry, in closed-door negotiations they have shifted to demanding the presidency with expanded powers.” Arraf notes that Talabani has been the president in every Iraqi government since the fall of Saddam Hussein, and that “the Kurds are unlikely to easily give up the post.”
Reidar Visser examined the problems that could arise from just such a deal in a post yesterday: “The main problem here is the constitution, which demands a special majority decision in parliament for this kind of constitutional change, to be followed by a popular referendum. Even if the other parties agreed on giving a beefed-up presidency to Iraqiyya, no one would know for sure whether the powers of the presidency would actually change until after a referendum some time in 2011.”
Posted in Iraq, Political Parties, US foreign policy | Comment »
