Egypt: Pressure on Egypt’s Election Monitors Builds
November 24th, 2010 by Evan
After rejecting U.S. calls for international election monitors, the responsibility for ensuring the validity of elections falls squarely on the Egyptian government, writes Al Masry Al Youm’s Ashraf Khalil. “‘If the elections on Sunday are perceived to be as non-transparent and lacking in credibility as people expect, then we could see a revival [of the Washington-based push for domestic reform],’” POMED’s Stephen McInerney told Khalil. Over at the Los Angeles Times’ Babylon and Beyond, Amro Hassan describes the National Council for Human Rights’ (NCHR) preparations for domestic monitoring. According to NCHR vice president Mokbel Shaker Egypt is prepared to supervise the election: “‘Monitoring elections through a foreign authority is a procedure that could only be taken in underdeveloped countries carrying out elections for the first time, and Egypt certainly doesn’t belong to such a category.’”
Posted in Egypt, Elections, Judiciary | Comment »
Egypt: Too Late for International Monitors?
November 24th, 2010 by Evan
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy’s David Schenker suggests that Egypt should follow Jordan’s example and allow international organizations to monitor its elections on Sunday in a new piece for The Weekly Standard. “Absent international monitors, it is all but certain that Cairo’s perennially fraudulent elections will continue,” Schenker writes, adding “Rather than return to the customary practice of sending out the troops on November 28, Cairo should send in the monitors — both independent domestic observers and international ones. Should Egyptian elections be assessed as free and fair, Egypt — like Jordan — will win international praise.”
Posted in Democracy Promotion, Egypt, Elections | Comment »
Egypt: The Brotherhood Vote
November 24th, 2010 by Evan
In a new article in The Daily News Egypt, Khalil Al-Anani analyzes the Muslim Brotherhood’s electorate. According to Al-Anani, there are three broad categories of potential Brotherhood voters: (1) those who are committed to the organization’s religious and political ideology and pay membership dues; (2) those who are sympathetic to its religious views and benefit from its social subsidies but do not formally participate in its activities; and (3) protest voters who want to vote against the ruling National Democratic Party. This year, the Brotherhood faces many challenges getting these voters to the polls, Al-Anani writes: “In many constituencies, the group will not be able to mobilize its regular electorate as it used to,” Al-Anani writes.
Posted in Egypt, Elections, Muslim Brotherhood | Comment »
Egypt: Will Parliamentary Elections Influence the 2011 Presidential Race?
November 24th, 2010 by Evan
Issandr El Amrani recently authored a piece for the International Relations and Security Network’s (ISN) Insights series on the process, outcome, and potential effect of the upcoming Egyptian parliamentary elections. The constitutional amendments passed in 2007, voter apathy, and the weakness of Egyptian opposition parties mean that there is “no great suspense about the outcome,” El Amrani writes. The real significance of the elections, according to El Amrani, will be their effect on the 2011 Egyptian presidential election: “The regime may desire as tame a parliament as possible during this transition, and seats at the People’s Assembly will afford parties and individuals some room for negotiation during this delicate time […] the presence of strong opposition voices inside and outside formal structures like parliament, even if limited, could influence the direction of the new regime and force it to take into account the growing number of voices seeking real change.”
Posted in Egypt, Elections, Islamist movements, Muslim Brotherhood | Comment »
Afghanistan: Parliamentary Election Results Announced
November 24th, 2010 by Evan
On Wednesday, Afghanistan’s Independent Electoral Commission released the results from the September parliamentary elections for 34 of 35 voting districts. A loose coalition led by former presidential candidate Abdullah Abdullah won over 90 of the 249 seats in the lower house of the Afghan parliament and will form a quasi-opposition to President Hamid Karzai’s parliamentary allies. Christian Science Monitor reports that the winners were disproportionally members of the Hazara ethnic community, largely because continued violence in Pashtun regions kept voters at home. The Electoral Commission also announced that three more preliminary winners were disqualified for fraud, bringing the total number of disqualified candidate to 24.
Posted in Afghanistan, Elections | Comment »
Egypt: NDP Accuses Brotherhood of Stealing Platform, Sparking Violence
November 23rd, 2010 by Evan
Tension between the Muslim Brotherhood and the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) continues to grow following the recent arrests of Brotherhood members and parliamentary candidates. Al Masry Al Youm reports that on Tuesday, NDP Secretary Ahmed Ezz said that the Brotherhood is trying to “steal” NDP’s achievements and Ali Eddin Helal, NDP Information Secretary, accused the Brotherhood of inciting violence. In The Guardian, Jack Shenker reports that while Brotherhood candidates have no delusions about the likely outcome of the parliamentary elections, they are campaigning enthusiastically and believe that the upcoming election will strengthen their hand ahead of the 2011 presidential election.
Posted in Egypt, Elections, Muslim Brotherhood | Comment »
Egypt: Brotherhood Expected to Lose Seats
November 23rd, 2010 by Jason
In an article in Al Masry Al Youm, Noha El-Hennawy says that the Muslim Brotherhood is expected to suffer a “remarkable retreat” in Sunday’s election and will likely be replaced with the liberal Wafd party. As El-Hennawy explains, the unprecedented success of the Brotherhood in 2005, when the outlawed group won 88 seats with members running as independents, has lead the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) to crackdown on the party. Wafd party looks to be in the best position to capitalize on this turn of events, although Mohamed Sherdy, the Wafd Party’s official spokesman, seems less optimistic: “‘I was pro-election and pro-participation but if we could go back in time, I think we should really reconsider it […] I do not think they (the government) want anybody from the opposition, they are chocking (sic) the opposition.’”
Also, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy released an audio recording of a Policy Forum held yesterday on the Egyptian elections and U.S. policy towards Egypt. The discussants included Dina Guirguis, a Keston Family research fellow with the Washington Institute’s Project Fikra, David Schenker, the Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at the Washington Institute, and Leslie Campbell, a senior associate and regional director of the National Democratic Institute’s (NDI) Middle East and North Africa division.
Posted in Civil Society, Egypt, Elections, Muslim Brotherhood, Political Parties, US foreign policy | Comment »
Afghanistan: Final Election Results Wednesday, 21 Candidates Disqualified
November 23rd, 2010 by Jason
The final results of the September elections for the Wolesi Jirga (lower house of parliament) will be announced by the Independent Election Commission on Wednesday. The announcement will come on the heels of 21 candidates who “earned a winning number of votes in their distric,” being disqualified “‘[d]ue to irregularities, usage of fake votes and the influence of provincial officials, which created electoral fraud,’” according to Ahmad Zia Rafat, a member of the five-person Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) panel.
Warren P. Strobel and Habib Zohori, in an article for McClatchey, focus on the results in Ghazni province, where Hazara candidates (an ethnic minority) were able to take all 11 provincial seats. “What happened in Ghazni is in dispute. While Pashtun candidates say their votes were stolen, there’s little doubt that polls in the province were among the messiest of a very messy campaign.”
Posted in Afghanistan, Elections, Political Parties, Sectarianism | Comment »
Egypt: Free, Fair Elections Are “Vital” to Egypt’s Future
November 23rd, 2010 by Evan
Responding to a question on Egypt’s upcoming election, State Department Spokesman P.J. Crowley said “we are closely monitoring events that are happening in Egypt, reports of arrests and intimidation, and we have not hesitated to express our concerns directly to Egyptian leaders.” Crowley added that “we think this is a vitally important period for Egypt’s future and we continue to encourage them to do everything possible to ensure a free, fair, and impartial election in Egypt.” Crowley’s statement comes amidst growing concern about the validity of the Higher Electoral Commission and widespread voter disinterest ahead of the election.
Posted in Egypt, Elections, Human Rights | Comment »
Khouri Assesses Elections Across the Arab World
November 22nd, 2010 by Evan
Writing in the Daily Star, Rami Khouri analyzes the recent outcomes of the Bahraini and Jordanian elections and the prospective outcome of the upcoming Egyptian parliamentary election. According to Khouri, these elections reveal three important lessons: “Ruling power elites and their foreign supporters remain hesitant to allow the full force of Arab public opinion to assert itself; they provide useful means of gauging public sentiments on important issues of the day; and, they provide a limited arena in which people learn to contest power peacefully, make deals with other groups, and appeal for the votes of their fellow citizens.”
Posted in Bahrain, Egypt, Elections, Jordan | Comment »
Egypt: Should the U.S. Push Hard for Democratic Reforms?
November 22nd, 2010 by Jason
Amanda Kadlec, writing at International Affairs Review, questions the efficacy of unwavering U.S. support for the Egyptian government. Kadlec agrees with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that Egypt is a “‘cornerstone of stability and security in the Middle East,’” but, she asks, “at what cost, and – more critically – is it durable?” While Egypt remains a “central player” in the peace process between the Israelis and the Palestinians, Kadlec argues that “isolating the peace process as a priority at the expense of democracy is an unwise long-term strategy.” Ultimately, silence on the issue of democracy in Egypt “speaks volumes,” according to Kadlec. “It signals quite loudly to Egyptians that their human, civil, and political rights are trumped by a nebulously defined regional stability that hinges on a Palestinian-Israeli agreement.”
Jay Soloman and Ashraf Khalil write in the Wall Street Journal that “[s]uccessive U.S. administrations have struggled with the dilemma of how hard to push for democracy in Egypt,” noting Egyptian support on both the peace process and anti-terrorism issues as plausible reasons for the indecisiveness. George Ishak, a founder of the Keyafa movement, which advocates for democratic reform in Egypt, told the authors, “‘America doesn’t care about this at all. They feel stability is more important than democracy.’”
Posted in Egypt, Elections, Reform, US foreign policy | Comment »
New NPR Series on Egypt
November 22nd, 2010 by Evan
NPR’s Soraya Sarhaddi Nelson began a weeklong series examining life in Egypt ahead of the country’s parliamentary election on Monday. The first installment focuses on growing discontent with the Mubarak Administration: “Not all Egyptians are in favor of Mubarak staying in power. A growing number of them are fed up living in what they see as a police state under his iron-fisted rule and in a country whose economy has failed to lift enough people out of poverty,” Sarhaddi Nelson writes. Much of the discontent stems from widespread corruption and police brutality. “Like many Egyptians of his generation, 29-year-old Ahmad Maher has a different view of life in Egypt today. The construction engineer says he could fill books with descriptions of everything that is wrong with Egypt after three decades of Mubarak’s rule. He complains that no one in government is accountable to the public,” she reports.
Posted in Egypt, Elections, Human Rights, Journalism | Comment »
Egypt: Domestic Monitors Face Challenges
November 22nd, 2010 by Jason
Bahey el-din Hassan writes in Al Masry Al Youm that civil society and human rights organizations face three major challenges in monitoring Egypt’s November 28 elections: First, the groups must obtain permits from the High Elections Commission (HEC), a process that has become increasingly opaque. “Although the HEC set 7 November as the deadline for human rights groups to submit applications to monitor elections, it set no date for the issuance of permits,” he writes. Also, the HEC “mandates that monitors be impartial, but how can the commission, with its limited resources, evaluate thousands of monitors for bias? Or is it planning to outsource the job to the security apparatus?” The second major hurdle for groups is a lack of accurate information, a problem exacerbated by the “deplorable state” of the HEC itself. The third challenge are the restrictions placed on the press. “The regime launched a quiet coup in October that restructured TV and print media and placed enormous restrictions on the free flow of information. This means that election monitors will do their job in the dark,” according to Hassan.
Al Masry Al Youm also reports that the head of the HEC, Al-Sayed Abdel Aziz, has now “definitively” stated that “there would be ‘no monitoring’ of Sunday’s parliamentary elections, stressing that the role of civil society and human rights organizations would be limited to ‘following’ the elections rather than ‘monitoring’ them.”
Posted in Civil Society, Egypt, Elections, Human Rights, Journalism, Middle Eastern Media, NGOs | Comment »
Egypt: Amnesty Urges Respect for Human Rights During Election, Documents Abuse
November 22nd, 2010 by Evan
Amnesty International recently called on the Egyptian government to ensure that candidates and voters are not “harassed or intimidated by security forces” during the upcoming parliamentary election. “The Egyptian authorities must uphold the rights to freedom of expression, association and assembly and ensure that peaceful protesters are not arbitrarily arrested and detained,” said Malcolm Smart, Director of Amnesty’s Middle East and North Africa program. Smart added that “The eyes of the world will be on the conduct of the Egyptian authorities during this election. It’s an opportunity for them to show that Egypt can be a place where human rights are respected.” In a new report titled “Egypt: Shouting Slogans into the Winds” Amnesty details human rights violations in the run up to the election including attacks on demonstrators, the silencing of independent voices in the press, and the targeting of National Association for Change and Muslim Brotherhood members.
Posted in Egypt, Elections, Human Rights | Comment »
Egypt: Rhetoric Heats Up as Election Nears
November 22nd, 2010 by Jason
U.S. Ambassador to Egypt Margret Scobey recently “reiterated American interest in transparent Egyptian parliamentary elections,” according to a report by Al Masry Al Youm. The Ambassador also “stressed the importance of local election oversight based on international standards, accompanied by international monitors.” Egyptian Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif was quoted today insisting that “‘Egypt is capable of monitoring the upcoming polls to prove to the entire world we are able to manage completely impartial elections.’” Meanwhile, the Muslim Brotherhood’s Saad el-Katatni told reporters at a press conference that “‘[w]hat is happening right now is the actual rigging of the vote […] The regime is sending a message that there will be no election.’”
Anwar Esmat Sadat, son of the former president and an independent candidate for parliament, also released a statement today claiming that the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) has taken “illegal actions” and used “tricks” to change his status from “Farmers’ Seat” to “Categories” thus making him ineligible to run for the seat that he currently holds. Sadat goes on to say “Egypt’s citizens were promised a fair, equal, and transparent election. I thought that it would be a fair and just election based on the assurances of the President himself. Despite hardships, I tried to act positively and to ignore the voices calling to boycott the elections. However, this corruption shows that it is clear that the government is willing to exclude me from the Council, likely because I did not agree with their decisions simply in order to satisfy them.”
Posted in Civil Society, Egypt, Elections, Muslim Brotherhood | Comment »
Iraq: The Future of American Influence
November 22nd, 2010 by Jason
In Saturday’s New York Times, Vice President Joe Biden wrote an editorial commending Iraqi politicians for “painstakingly” working through the issues needed to resolve the country’s political stalemate. “By agreeing to form a national partnership government, however, Iraqi leaders have sent an unmistakable message to their fellow citizens, their region and the world: after more than seven years of war and decades of dictatorship, Iraqis seek a nation where the rights of all citizens are recognized and the talents of all are harnessed to unlock the country’s full potential.” The Vice President went on to enumerate the many difficulties facing the new government, including the upcoming census, disagreement over the hydrocarbon law, and the final status of Kirkuk, among others. He also pushes for “continued engagement, including our broader diplomatic presence, a modernization plan for the Iraqi security forces and financing for a police development program.”
In contrast to the Vice President, Mohammad A. Salih, points to the failed attempts by the U.S., including phone calls from Vice President Biden and President Obama, to coerce Kurdish leader Jalal Talibani to step down in favor of Ayad Allawi as “a stark reminder of Washington’s dwindling leverage in Iraq.” And Feisal Amin Rasoul al-Istrabadi argues in an editorial in the Daily Star that “[t]he Obama administration’s Iraq policy is in chaos,” in part because, “Obama is following the example of President George W. Bush, who let the US electoral agenda, rather than American – not to mention Iraqi – national interests, dictate Iraq policy.”
Posted in Elections, Iraq, Political Parties, US foreign policy | Comment »
Egypt: Widespread Arrests Stifle Campaigns
November 22nd, 2010 by Evan
Over 1,200 Muslim Brotherhood members, including eight nominees for the upcoming election, were arrested Friday and Saturday following a series of violent clashes with police at campaign rallies across the country. Representatives of the Brotherhood reported members were detained in 22 provinces, with the largest number of arrests occurring in Sharqiya and Alexandria. “The regime is sending a message that there will be no election,” said Saad el-Katatni, the head of the Muslim Brotherhood parliamentary bloc. In a new article for Al Jazeera, Evan Hill describes challenges facing the Brotherhood and the organization’s tenuous relations with proponents of democracy in the West, while Amro Hassan and Jeffrey Fleishman document internal rifts between conservatives and reformists and the effect of increased government pressure on the organization.
Posted in Egypt, Elections, Human Rights, Islam and Democracy, Islamist movements, Muslim Brotherhood | Comment »
Egypt: Fractured Ghad Party Illustrates Regime’s Repression of Liberal Parties
November 19th, 2010 by Anna
In an article for Foreign Policy, Eric Trager chronicles the story of Ayman Nour’s Ghad party, highlighting “the remarkably devious tactics through which the [Egyptian] regime stifles even its most prominent opponents.” He observes that there are now two Ghad parties in Egypt: one that is not a legal entity and one that is (and is running 31 candidates in the upcoming parliamentary elections). The former’s persistent criticism of the government prompted the regime to arrest Nour and work to undermine the party. Gradually, Ghad was co-opted by the regime, and Trager writes that today “a vote for Ghad is, in fact, a vote for a pro-Mubarak party.” A pro-Nour faction has remained, and Nour himself has fought to stay relevant by continuing to speak out. He concludes: “It is tempting to believe that, if Washington placed enough pressure on Cairo to liberalize, this reality could change. But Ghad’s story demonstrates that the Mubarak regime’s commitment to stifling its domestic opponents far outweighs the West’s commitment to promoting democratization.”
Posted in Egypt, Elections, Political Parties, US foreign policy | Comment »
Egypt: U.S. Should Have “Positive Impact on Change”
November 19th, 2010 by Jason
In the third and final part of a three-part series (parts one and two) exploring the political environment in Egypt prior to the November 28 parliamentary elections, Dina Guirguis focuses on the role the U.S. should play in pushing for democratic reforms in Egypt. Pointing to numerous “bad omens” including the firing of Ibrahim Eissa, the Egyptian government’s decision to not allow international monitors, and the “major restrictions” placed on domestic monitoring groups by the Shura Council, Guirguis says that “Egyptians are awakening to this reality and demonstrating creative outlets of resistance.” She says that the Obama administration “has thus far proved unwilling to rock the boat on Egypt for the sake of so-called regional interests,” and that “Egypt offers…an opportunity for the United States to have a positive impact on change.” Guirguis recommends “target[ing] known Egyptian human rights abusers” in the same way that recent sanctions have targeted members of the Iranian regime, and that the Obama Administration “should consider dropping its opposition to forward-leaning S. Res. 586 in support of freedom in Egypt,” among other measures.
Posted in Civil Society, Egypt, Elections, Political Parties, Reform, US foreign policy | Comment »
Egypt: U.S. “Has More to Gain” by Supporting Democracy
November 19th, 2010 by Anna
At World Politics Review, former Wall Street Journal foreign correspondent James Dorsey contends that it is in Washington’s long-term interests to promote democratic reform in Egypt, rather than “turn a blind eye to flagrant human-rights violations and measures that stymie democratic development.” He highlights the Egyptian regime’s “repression of the opposition, intimidation and control of the media, and electoral restrictions” all but ensure that the National Democratic Party (NDP) will remain in power. Dorsey calls fear that democracy promotion efforts would benefit Egypt’s Islamists “exaggerated,” adding that the Obama administration could shape the debate in Egypt prior to the parliamentary elections by publicly focusing on the matter. He concludes: “[a]ll in all, the United States has more to gain by nudging the Egyptian and Arab debate toward an embrace of democracy and human rights — and more to lose by maintaining a policy that so far has primarily identified Washington with repressive, corrupt regimes, significantly tarnishing its image.”
Posted in Democracy Promotion, Diplomacy, Egypt, Elections, Foreign Aid | Comment »
