Writing at The Daily Beast, Reza Aslanargues the recently revealed plan to impeach President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is indicative of growing popular and elite displeasure with his policies. There is a sense in Iran that “with the protests having died down and the ‘Green Movement’ having been (for the moment) contained, the alliance of convenience that had formed among Iran’s feuding conservative factions would fracture, taking Ahmadinejad down with it,” Aslan writes. As opposition in parliament and on the street to Ahmadinejad’s planned subsidy reduction program grows the President’s position will likely become increasingly tenuous.
Over 1,200 Muslim Brotherhood members, including eight nominees for the upcoming election, were arrested Friday and Saturday following a series of violent clashes with police at campaign rallies across the country. Representatives of the Brotherhood reported members were detained in 22 provinces, with the largest number of arrests occurring in Sharqiya and Alexandria. “The regime is sending a message that there will be no election,” saidSaad el-Katatni, the head of the Muslim Brotherhood parliamentary bloc. In a new article for Al Jazeera, Evan Hilldescribes challenges facing the Brotherhood and the organization’s tenuous relations with proponents of democracy in the West, while Amro Hassan and Jeffrey Fleishmandocument internal rifts between conservatives and reformists and the effect of increased government pressure on the organization.
Shadi Hamid, Director of Research at the Brookings Doha Center and Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, and Gregory Gause, Professor of Political Science at the University of Vermont, recently participated in video debate on democracy in the Muslim world. Over the course of the conversation, Hamid and Gause discuss whether democracy in the Middle East is in Washington’s interests, what Islamists would do if they came to power, and the durability of authoritarian rule across the Arab world. View the full discussion here.
At a recent round of the Doha Debates – a monthly, televised event in which panelists debate a controversial issue before an audience drawn primarily from Qatar’s student body – 63% of audience members said that democratic reform should take precedence over economic liberalization. Although it was not a scientific poll, the vote “offer[ed] a clear rejection of the philosophy of the region’s so-called moderate Arab states, where economic incentives are offered in place of meaningful political reform,” the Los Angeles Times‘ Meris Lutz reported. One of the panelists debating the topic, Georgetown University academic Jean-Francois Seznec, argued that immediate democratization might lead to Islamist rule, which could mean more restrictions on freedom of speech. Egyptian blogger Wael Abbas responded that “you need to achieve participatory politics. […] If the government keeps shutting up leftists, Nasserites, liberals and democrats, the Islamists will win.”
The Center for American Progress (CAP) hosted a discussion titled “The Future of the U.S.-Turkey Relationship” on Wednesday. Brian Katulis, senior fellow at CAP, moderated a panel composed of Steven Cook, senior fellow of Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, and Michael Werz, senior fellow at CAP. As part of the larger discussion of Turkey-U.S. relations, the panelists addressed the development of democracy in Turkey.
To read full notes, continue below or click here for a pdf copy.
In an article for the Boston Review, Jan-Werner Muller of Princeton University details the history of the Christian democratic movement and asks whether “the historical analogy between Christian and potential Muslim democracy…perhaps suggest[s] promising alternatives to the authoritarian rule that dominates the Middle East.” He asserts that “institutional structures are what matters, not political ideas or programs” – as such, he concludes that “calls for liberalizing Islam and arcane disputes about the Qur’an’s compatibility with democracy are largely beside the point. Programmatic moderation, if it happens at all, will be a result of democratic political practice, not its precondition.” In the case of Christian Democracy, Muller writes, leaders drew in voters by basing their platforms on a particular body of thought, while simultaneously “reassuring nonbelievers that those of faith had accepted pluralism.” By delicately balancing various principles, Christian Democrats made themselves appealing to both Christians and non-Christians. Whether this is possible for Islamist politicians, Muller writes, remains unclear. He points out that “the political mobilization of believers does not necessarily result in a one-to-one translation of private religious identities into public political identities,” and that identities are reconstructed in pluralist arenas where compromise is key. Thus, he concludes, “blanket condemnations of Islam as incompatible with Democracy overlook the fact that religious doctrines do not strictly determine politics.”
In a new, detailed piece at Tehran Bureau, Muhammad Sahimi explains the history of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei’s troubles with the clerical establishment, and what, if anything, his recent trip to the holy city of Qom accomplished. “Unlike his predecessor as Supreme Leader — Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini — Khamenei has never had his own independent base of popular support.” The process through which Khamenei rose to the position of Supreme Leader was heavily influenced by Hashemi Rafsanjani, who thought Khamenei was “weak in religious credentials and therefore pliable.” The recent trip to Qom was an effort to “have the most senior grand ayatollahs and ayatollahs greet him as he entered the holy city, where about 30 Marjas taghlid currently reside. It became quickly clear, however, that aside from Khamenei’s reactionary supporters…no credible cleric would agree to that.”
Sahimi calls into question reports that Khamenei was able to achieve the main goals of the trip: to officially become a Marja taghlid, or figure of emulation, and to be named the Marja-e omoom, the foremost of the Marja. He said that it does not matter how various “daily hardline mouthpieces” and “other reactionary websites” refer to Khamenei. “The great aspect of Shiism is that it is the people who decide whom they want to follow, whom they want to emulate, whom they consider a true and pious Marja,” he says.
Al Masry Al Youm reports today that the Muslim Brotherhood is urging the High Elections Commission to uphold a court order allowing the campaign slogan “Islam is the Solution.” In The Brotherhood’s Opinion, a weekly post by the group, the Brotherhood criticizes the regime’s arrests of group members and calls on the government to treat all candidates fairly. Saad al-Katatni, a Brotherhood spokesman, also asserts that the High Elections Commission “must take a neutral stance as it is not an affiliate of the NDP.”
Muslim Brotherhood sources also say that the group will focus on social justice issues in its campaign platform during the upcoming parliamentary elections. The specific election program – which outlines strategies to tackle unemployment, the uneven distribution of wealth in Egypt, women’s issues, Coptic relations, and other social and political challenges – will be released in the coming weeks.
The National Council on US-Arab Relations held its 19th annual Arab-US Policymakers Conference on Thursday. Opening remarks were made by Dr. John Duke Anthony, President and CEO of the National Council on US-Arab Relations and Rear Admiral Harold J. Bernsen, chairman of the Board of Directors at the National Council on US-Arab Relations. The first talk on the agenda was entitled “Arab-US Relations: Misadventures Past and Present,” and was given by The Honorable Chas W. Freeman Jr., former Ambassador and Assistant Secretary of Defense.
(To read full notes, continue below the fold or go here for pdf.)
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarakannounced today that the parliamentary elections will be held November 28. He also announced that the run-off vote would be held December 5 and the new parliamentary session will begin December 13.
In an interview with Al-Masry Al-Youm, Mohamed Saad al-Katatny, head of the Muslim Brotherhood parliamentary bloc, said that the group plans to continue the use of the slogan “Islam is the Solution” in spite of pressure from the Egyptian government. When asked by the interviewer if he thought election monitoring was necessary, al-Katatny responded “If the regime intends to have fair elections, it will allow the international community or civil society to monitor. Preventing monitoring means there’s an intention to rig elections.” Al-Katatny was also asked if the Brotherhood planned on fielding a candidate for president, to which he answered “No.”
The New America Foundation (NAF) held an event today marking the release of Hooman Majd’s new book, “The Ayatollahs’ Democracy: An Iranian Challenge.” Majd was introduced by Steve Clemons, Senior Fellow and Director of the American Strategy Program at NAF.
(To read full notes, continue below the fold or go herefor pdf)
Muhammad Sahimiwrites at the Tehran Bureau that a letter critical of Supreme Leader Khamenei’s handling of political prisoners, supposedly written by Sadegh Larijani, chief of Iran’s judiciary, has been published on an opposition website. Sahimi questions the authenticity of the letter, but does not rule out the possibility that it is genuine, noting that “if a letter with the above content has actually been sent to the Supreme Leader, it would represent a historic document.” The letter contains many accusations that the Supreme Leader and regime loyalists interfered with the judiciary both before and after the elections in 2009. Sahimi highlights one accusation in particular. ” [The letter] states, Khamenei revoked the power of the judiciary the day before the election and transferred it to the SNSC (Supreme National Security Council), which is packed with his cronies. What was he anticipating that he could not trust the judiciary and had to order a transfer of power?”
In other news, Radio Free Europereports that an Iranian blogger critical of the regime, Mehdi Khazali, has been arrested. The article notes that the arrest is particularly interesting because Khazali’s father is Ayatollah Abolghassem Khazali, a conservative cleric and supporter of the government. Radio Free Europe also reports that Ali Shakurirad, a leader of the banned Islamic Iran Participation Front, was “summoned for questioning and detained”, most likely in response to an article he wrote about Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei, the chief prosecuter of Iran.
Writing at Tehran Bureau, Mea Cyrusreports that the Supreme Leader of Iran is making his first trip to the holy city of Qom since the controversial re-election of President Ahmadinejad. Cyrus says that the trip is notable due to the participation of some clerics in the Green Movement, including Mehdi Karroubi, and the recent steps taken by the regime to silence criticism from clerical quarters. “Khamenei is going to Qom for several important reasons, among them to show his authority and intimidate those clerics, both grand and junior, who dare to oppose him and his puppet president publicly or privately.” Cyrus points to the recent shut down of senior cleric’s websites and the centralization of control of religious endowments as areas where Khamenei is applying pressure. Cyrus also mentions the recent news that Azad University is being taken over by the government concluding, “[m]aking this announcement right before his trip to Qom is a calculated step, a warning to other clerics and a move to isolate Rafsanjani and his followers, clerical and nonclerical alike.”
Saba Mahmood presented her forthcoming paper entitled “Politics of Religious Freedom and the Minority Question: A Middle Eastern Genealogy” at Georgetown University’s Berkley Center on Monday night. She was introduced by Jose Casanova, Professor of Sociology at Georgetown University and the head of the Berkley Center’s Program on Globalization, Religion and the Secular.
(To read full notes, continue below the fold or click here for pdf.)
An event was held today at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace celebrating the release of the book “Between Religion and Politics”, coauthored by Amr Hamzawy and Nathan Brown. Marwan Muasher acted as the moderator for the event, where the authors explained the process they utilized in the researching of the book and explored, in depth, the case studies of Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.
(To read full notes, continue below the fold or click here for pdf.)
In a new interview, Carnegie Endowment Vice President for Studies Marwan Muasherargues that the Arab world is stagnating because of a lack of democratic reform: “There is not a single Arab country today that can be seen as adopting a serious and sustained political reform process. And this is really leaving the Arab world behind almost everybody else.” Power in the region is divided between entrenched regimes and Islamist opposition movements, Muasher explains, neither of which can effectively bring peace and stability. According to Muasher, three elements are necessary for the success of democratic reforms in the Arab world: First, the development of an active middle class; second, greater freedom for civil society; and third, the emergence of political parties that offer a real alternative to both the establishment and the Islamist opposition.
Frederik Richter, writing for Reuters, reports that the recent crackdown in Bahrain may push Shi’ites away from moderate parties: “Analysts say the crackdown is making it harder for Wefaq, the largest Shi’ite bloc in parliament, to maintain its position of advocating dialogue with the government. They say Wefaq supporters could increasingly turn to more radical groups such as Haq, that dispute the legitimacy of reforms and whose leaders have been targeted during the crackdown, seen as the biggest in ten years.” According to Richter, the success Wefaq has had working with the government has been countermanded by the recent oppression and prospects for future cooperation are dim.
Human Rights Watch has released a new report entitled “Looser Rein, Uncertain Gain: A Human Rights Assessment of Five Years of King Abdullah’s Reforms in Saudi Arabia.” The 57-page report looks at four key areas: women’s rights, freedom of expression, judicial fairness, and religious tolerance.
In an Atlantic article titled “When Islamism is Liberal-Democratic”, Max Fisher notes that the recent passing of a constitutional referendum in Turkey is being described in some quarters as a turn away from the country’s secular past. He asserts that it is actually a move towards liberal democracy: “Islamic rule and liberal democracy, far from mutually exclusive in the Middle East, can go hand-in-hand.” He goes on to describe Middle Eastern Islamic movements as essentially “populist” and not all that different from populist movements in the U.S. or elsewhere. As Fisher points out, Islamic governments are often more representative of the populace than secular dictatorships, promoting cooperation and trust between the government and the people. The dictatorships, which have often been supported by the U.S. in the past, often cause “…more harm than good.” He concludes by saying,” We might prefer that all governments be secular liberal democracies like our own. But if we must choose between an Islamic democracy or a secular autocracy, regional history suggests we should prefer the former every time.”
On Monday, September 13th, POMED hosted an event entitled “Is Turkey Becoming Less Democratic?” The event was moderated by Bill Schneider, Distinguished Senior Fellow and Resident Scholar at Third Way and the Omer L. and Nancy Hirst Professor of Public Policy at George Mason University. The discussion featured three panelists: Gonul Tol, Executive Director of the Center for Turkish Studies at the Middle East Institute; Daniel Brumberg, Director of the Muslim World Initiative at the U.S. Institute of Peace; and W. Robert Pearson, former U.S. Ambassador to Turkey and President of the International Research and Exchanges Board.
POMED’s full notes continue below or read them as a pdf.
