Afghanistan: Final Election Results Wednesday, 21 Candidates Disqualified
November 23rd, 2010 by Jason
The final results of the September elections for the Wolesi Jirga (lower house of parliament) will be announced by the Independent Election Commission on Wednesday. The announcement will come on the heels of 21 candidates who “earned a winning number of votes in their distric,” being disqualified “‘[d]ue to irregularities, usage of fake votes and the influence of provincial officials, which created electoral fraud,’” according to Ahmad Zia Rafat, a member of the five-person Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) panel.
Warren P. Strobel and Habib Zohori, in an article for McClatchey, focus on the results in Ghazni province, where Hazara candidates (an ethnic minority) were able to take all 11 provincial seats. “What happened in Ghazni is in dispute. While Pashtun candidates say their votes were stolen, there’s little doubt that polls in the province were among the messiest of a very messy campaign.”
Posted in Afghanistan, Elections, Political Parties, Sectarianism | Comment »
Iraq: Will the Power-Sharing Agreement Hold?
November 16th, 2010 by Jason
In a new article, Marina Ottaway and Danial Kaysi describe the current state of government formation in Iraq as, “at best extremely fragile.” The power-sharing agreement that would have Nouri al-Maliki remain prime minister “reaffirms the confessional character of the Iraqi political system.” According to the authors, the biggest obstacle to the implementation of the agreement is that it “does not really appear to be legally enforceable,” instead relying on the “good will of all major political factions.” The authors conclude that if Maliki continues to accrue power unchecked and the “two main conditions” of the agreement, the foundation of the National Council on Higher Strategic Policies (originally meant to be headed by Ayad Allawi) and the reinstatement of three banned Sunni politicians, are not met “the implementation of the agreement is likely dead.”
Larry Kaplow, writing at Foreign Policy, warns that “Iraq is not democratic in a reliable or deep sense, where people can expect equal rights, legal protections, or access to their leaders.” He lists various offenses against journalists perpetrated by the Iraqi government under Maliki, including that the government “has started requiring that news agencies register their staff and equipment.” Rule of Law remains “an abstract concept,” with people buying their way out of trouble and bribing government officials, according to Kaplow.
Posted in Elections, Iraq, Sectarianism | Comment »
Iraq: Walkout Threatens Tenuous Unity Government
November 12th, 2010 by Evan
Just hours into a parliamentary session on Thursday to approve Iraq’s new unity government, members of Ayad Allawi’s Iraqiya coalition staged a walkout. Washington Post reporter Leila Fadel writes that while the walkout did not immediately scuttle the agreement, it is indicative of the “deep divisions and distrust that dominate the country’s political system.” The New York Times’ Steven Lee Myers adds that the incident is a foreshadowing of the serious difficulties Iraqi politicians will face in the coming months: “The government — if it holds together — will be fractured and unwieldy, rife with suspicion, hobbled by a shaky grasp of the rule of law and prone to collapse, or at least chaos.”
Posted in Iraq, Legislation, Political Parties, Sectarianism | Comment »
Iraq: The Next Lebanon?
November 9th, 2010 by Jason
An editorial in The Daily Star contends that the “bazaar-style haggling” over the “booty of the state” in Iraq could result in “a cabinet that will exhibit near-total paralysis instead of acting to improve the conditions of the state and its citizens.” The authors argue that the reliance on outside powers to help negotiate the formation of a government will lead to a “state of dependence” on those same powers. Using their own country as an unhappy example, the authors conclude that “[i]f the Iraqi leaders need a cautionary tale that might scare them into acting responsibly, they need only look at Lebanon, a country so deeply reliant on others to manage its crises that its independence exists merely as a hollow holiday in the calendar.”
Posted in Iraq, Lebanon, Sectarianism | Comment »
POMED Notes: “Iraq’s Development Challenges”
November 2nd, 2010 by Jason
The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) held a roundtable discussion Tuesday titled “Iraq’s Development Challenges.” The discussants were Christine McNab, Deputy Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General & UN Resident Coordinator and Humanitarian Coordinator for Iraq, John Desrocher, Director, Office of Iraq Affairs, US Department of State, and Leslie Campbell, Regional Director for the Middle East & North Africa, National Democratic Institute (NDI). The discussion was moderated by Frederick Tipson, Director of UNDP/Washington.
(To read full notes, continue below the fold or click here for pdf.) Read the rest of this entry »
Posted in Civil Society, Elections, Foreign Aid, Freedom, Iraq, Political Parties, Public Opinion, Reform, Sectarianism, US foreign policy | Comment »
Lebanon: Reform Needed in Elections and Political System
October 28th, 2010 by Anna
Lebanon’s Daily Star reports today that Osama Safa, secretary general of the Lebanese Association for Democratic Elections (LADE), warned yesterday that the government has six months to implement a series of electoral law reforms. Among the reforms are giving soldiers the right to vote, lowering the voting age to 18, setting a quota for women candidates, and having independent oversight of electoral lists. Last November, the parliament stated that it would finish a draft law on election issues within 18 months. LADE and other organizations have called for changes to Lebanon’s “archaic” election laws, according to the Star, pointing to various types of irregularities in recent elections. Safa called on the government to prioritize electoral reform, saying: “The electoral law is considered the right gateway to any other reform.”
Meanwhile, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon expressed concern yesterday over rising political tensions in Lebanon. In a report on the implementation of Security Council Resolution 1559 (2004),which calls for free and fair presidential elections in the country, he said: “Lebanon is currently experiencing a domestic climate of uncertainty and fragility” and called on leaders to work on strengthening institutions and to “transcend sectarian and individual interests and to genuinely promote the future and the interests of the nation.”
Posted in Elections, Lebanon, Legislation, Political Parties, Reform, Sectarianism | Comment »
Iraq: “Hopes Rest on Reconciliation”
October 27th, 2010 by Jason
At a recent policy forum luncheon held by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, three members of the Institute gave their perspectives on the current political situation in Iraq. Ahmed Ali said that Prime Minister Maliki is “known to be close with Iraqi president and leading Kurdish figure Jalal Talabani,” but that Maliki also brought Minister of Planning Ali Baban along on his recent visit to Turkey, signaling to the Turks that he was not “yielding to Kurdish demands.” Michael Knights focused on the security situation saying that “[s]ecurity metrics are degrading in quality as the U.S. military draws down […] confirm[ing] that stabilization is slowing overall and even regressing in some places.” Michael Eisenstadt reflected on the challenges facing the US and Iraq in the future. “Going forward, hopes rest on reconciliation through politics, with the formation of a broad-based governing coalition that gives elements from every community a stake in political order.”
Posted in Civil Society, Freedom, Iraq, Kurds, Political Parties, Sectarianism, US foreign policy | Comment »
POMED Notes: “19th Annual Arab-US Policymakers Conference”
October 22nd, 2010 by Jason
The National Council on US-Arab Relations held its 19th annual Arab-US Policymakers Conference on Thursday. Opening remarks were made by Dr. John Duke Anthony, President and CEO of the National Council on US-Arab Relations and Rear Admiral Harold J. Bernsen, chairman of the Board of Directors at the National Council on US-Arab Relations. The first talk on the agenda was entitled “Arab-US Relations: Misadventures Past and Present,” and was given by The Honorable Chas W. Freeman Jr., former Ambassador and Assistant Secretary of Defense.
(To read full notes, continue below the fold or go here for pdf.)
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Posted in Diplomacy, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, Iraq, Islam and Democracy, Military, Neocons, Political Parties, Sectarianism, Terrorism, US foreign policy | Comment »
Iraq: Washington Needs to “Press All Sides”
October 20th, 2010 by Jason
An editorial in today’s New York Times stresses the importance of a democratic resolution to the political stalemate in Iraq. Referencing the recent spate of state visits by Nouri al-Maliki, the editorial remarks: “Iraq needs good relations with its neighbors. But more than anything it needs a legitimate government able to address its many deep problems.” Reports of backsliding by some in the Awakening is also a point of concern, as are the implications of a Shiite-run government that excludes Sunnis. “Iraq urgently needs a new government that is not mortgaged to Iran but reflects the election results with Mr. Maliki, Mr. Allawi and the Kurds playing major roles.” Ultimately, “Washington needs to press all sides, a lot harder, to make a deal.”
Posted in Elections, Iraq, Kurds, Political Parties, Sectarianism, US foreign policy | Comment »
Iraq: “Experiencing Much Movement, But Little Real Progress”
October 19th, 2010 by Jason
Marina Ottaway and Danial Kaysi write at RealClearWorld that “Sadr’s support makes it easier for Maliki to gain the numerical majority in parliament he needs to form a government, but is not sufficient to produce a politically viable alliance.” The authors argue that the the ISCI (Islamic Supreme Council) and the Kurdistan Alliance are still skeptical about the chances of a government forming in the near future. Calling the political landscape “confusing and inconclusive”, the authors describe the inherent complexity and apparent incongruities of some of the positions parties have taken: “Talks between Iraqiya and ISCI are continuing, and Abdul Mahdi himself and several Iraqiya members characterize the relationship between the two parties as one aiming to further an “advance project.” However, “[w]hile openly in talks with Iraqiya, opposing a second term for Maliki, and pushing instead the candidacy of Adel Abdul Mahdi, ISCI representatives stress that they remain part of the National Alliance between State of Law and the INA.” Ultimately, the deal between Maliki and al-Sadr has led to “much movement, but little real progress.”
Posted in Iraq, Kurds, Political Parties, Sectarianism | Comment »
Iraq: Where the Kurds Stand
October 18th, 2010 by Jason
While many assume that Iran stands to benefit most from the current political situation in Iraq, Ranj Alaaldin argues that the involvement of Iran has spurred the US to support the attempt by Ayad Allawi to form a coalition with the Kurds (who hold 57 seats) and the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (who hold 18 seats.) “These developments mean that the Kurds have emerged as kingmakers,” because both Allawi and Maliki are actively courting the group to join their respective coalitions. “They hold the power to determine the future of Iraq’s other groupings, the future of the country itself as well as that of the US role in Iraq,” according to Alaaldin.
Reidar Visser provides a look at the demands the Kurds have made in exchange for their cooperation. “We have the ironic situation whereby two declared Iraqi nationalists (Maliki and Allawi) who are theoretically committed to working against the destruction of the Iraqi state in practice are trying to outbid each other in an attempt at satisfying Kurdish aims that are directed precisely at the dismemberment of Iraq as a recognisable and governable state.” The Kurds have released a set of “19 Points” that they wish to be fulfilled prior to their agreement to join a coalition. Visser calls into question the constitutionality of the fourth Point, which entails “the establishment of a senate within the first year of the parliament, and the extension of the veto powers of the presidency council until the senate is up and running.” The problem with this Point is that “[t]his is simply one hundred per cent unconstitutional and against the basic principles of separation of power. It is for the Iraqi parliament, not the government, to draw up the rules of the next senate, with a two-thirds majority.” Visser concludes on an ominous note: “The Kurdish negotiating document is not only a step towards the complete destruction of the Iraqi state, it is also a flagrant violation of the constitution that the Kurds themselves supported back in 2005.”
Posted in Iraq, Kurds, Oil, Political Parties, Sectarianism, US foreign policy | Comment »
Iraq: Is Iran the Kingmaker?
October 18th, 2010 by Jason
Iran’s influence over political developments in Iraq was the subject of several articles over the weekend. In the Guardian, Martin Chulov writes that Muqtada Al-Sadr’s support for Prime Minister Maliki is the equivalent of “putting [Maliki’s] key rival, Iyad Allawi, in check.” Chulov goes on to describe a byzantine process involving players from Iran, Syria, and Lebanon. He quotes an American official describing the prominence of the Sadrist’s in the new government: “‘This is nothing less than a strategic defeat.’”
Another article in the Guardian, written by Michael Knights, is less perturbed by Iran’s influence. “Any assessment of Iran’s influence in Iraq must centre on a review of Tehran’s interests and objectives vis-a-vis its neighbour and historic rival.” Knight posits that Iran’s true aim is to ensure that Iraq cannot threaten it again militarily. The Iranians are protecting their interests by “seek[ing] to complicate the task of negotiating a post-2011 US-Iraqi security agreement and to restrict the scale and effectiveness of American security assistance to Iraq’s external security forces,” as well as “establish[ing] a balance of trade and economic co-dependencies that favour Tehran and protect it.” He concludes by noting: “Iran probably faces a future in which Iraqi nationalism grows as a force, whilst the current crop of Iranian-favoured politicians will fade away. This all suggests that Iran, like the United States, will have to continue to vie for influence in Iraq, year after year, decade after decade.”
Posted in Elections, Iran, Iraq, Political Parties, Sectarianism, US foreign policy | Comment »
POMED Notes: “The Sudan Referendum: Dangers and Possibilities”
October 13th, 2010 by Jason
The Brookings Institution held an event today entitled “The Sudan Referendum: Dangers and Possibilities.” The featured speaker for the event was Representative Donald Payne (D-NJ), the chairman of the Subcommittee on Africa and Global Health, Committee on Foreign Relations, United States House of Representatives. The discussants for the event were Richard Williamson, non-resident fellow on foreign policy at Brookings, and Mike Abramowitz, director of the Committee on Conscience at the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum.
(For full notes, continue below the fold or go here for pdf.)
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Posted in Civil Society, Human Rights, Oil, Political Parties, Sectarianism, Sudan, US foreign policy, sanctions | Comment »
Iraq: Parliamentary Maneuvering
October 13th, 2010 by Jason
Reidar Visser writes that there are “three races” towards government formation in Iraq at present: The Maliki Project, the Allawi Project, and what could be called the American Project. Visser describes the Maliki Project as “the 89 SLA (State of Law) deputies, the 40 Sadrists plus Ibrahim al-Jaafari and Ahmad Chalabi […] which would bring the total number to a minimum of 131. On top of this, Maliki is obvious angling for the support of the Kurdish parties (58), which would easily bring him above the magical 163 mark required to have a majority in parliament. […] Maliki is also hoping to lure a new coalition between Unity of Iraq and Tawfuq (sic) into his coalition (10 deputies altogether with promises of more), in order to serve a symbolic ‘Sunni representation’.”
The Allawi Project would consist of “building a coalition between Iraqiyya and as many INA (Iraqi National Alliance) breakaway elements from the NA (National Alliance) as possible plus Tawafuq and Unity of Iraq; then convincing the Kurds that this kind of coalition would be favorable compared to a deal with Maliki.” Visser points out that these two options are “competitive” and that any invitation to form a coalition from State of Law or Iraqiyya to the other is “tongue in cheek.”
The American Project would require a rapprochement between all of the parties: “The Americans still seem to be hoping that all the original four big winning blocs – Iraqiyya, SLA, INA and the Kurds – will somehow eventually get together in a single coalition to form the next government, preferrably (sic) without the Sadrists in a too-dominant role. In doing so, the Americans are actually raising the threshold for government-formation…” Visser goes on to list several problems in pursuing the American path. First, it is simply more difficult to form a four party coalition than a three party coalition. Second, “almost all American proposals on the subject of government formation seems to involve simultaneous measures of constitutional reform, since redefining the powers of the presidency now appears to be an aim.” Constitutional referendums are risky and take time, Visser says, leaving the “competitive” projects as the “more realistic” options.
Posted in Elections, Iraq, Kurds, Political Parties, Sectarianism, US foreign policy | Comment »
Iraq: Shifting Political Blocs?
October 11th, 2010 by Anna
Adel Barwari, a top Kurdish politician, says that the Kurds will join whatever bloc responds best to their demands. So far, he adds, Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki’s State of Law coalition has been the most accommodating to the Kurdish agenda. Some issues, like the national census and the future of oil-rich Kirkuk, remain unresolved. The Sunni-backed Iraqiyya coalition, meanwhile, appeared “to be giving up its demand for the premiership,” according to the New York Times. Sheik Adnan al-Danbous, who is close to Ayad Allawi expressed that the bloc wants an equal share of power in parliament, adding: “We have reached a position that we don’t care anymore about posts…Posts are not as important to us as having participation in decision-making.”
Posted in Iraq, Kurds, Political Parties, Sectarianism | Comment »
Lebanon: Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop
October 7th, 2010 by Jason
The anticipated UN Special Tribunal on Lebanon indictments are stoking tensions in the Levant. Mona Yacoubian writes at the Middle East Channel that the situation “embodies all the complex challenges that confront Lebanon: Sunni-Shiite sectarian tensions, Hezbollah’s weapons, confessional power-sharing, the influence of regional players particularly Syria […] and broader proxy battles between the West and the Hezbollah/Syria/Iran alliance.” Yacoubian argues that, of all the concerns, the reaction of Hezbollah to the possible indictment of several of its members is the most worrying because it has the most to lose: “…Hezbollah’s culpability in the Hariri assassination will deal a fatal blow to Hezbollah’s professed raison d’etre of ‘resistance’ against Israel, instead reducing the organization to nothing more than a sectarian militia among many in Lebanese confessional politics.”
A main point of contention in Lebanon presently is the issue of “false witnesses”–those who initially testified that Syria was responsible for the assassination. “(M)inisters loyal to Berri’s Development and Liberation bloc announced on Wednesday they would suspend their participation in future Cabinet sessions if a session scheduled for Tuesday did not tackle the issue of false witnesses,” Nafez Qawas reports in the Daily Star. Several members of the Cabinet, including Foreign Affairs Minister Ali Shami, refused to participate in sessions until the subject was addressed and warned that not addressing the issue would lead to “civil strife.”
Posted in Civil Society, Hezbollah, Lebanon, Political Parties, Public Opinion, Sectarianism | Comment »
Iraq: Maliki’s “National Government of Futility”
October 5th, 2010 by Jason
Ranj Alaaldin writes at The Guardian’s Comment is Free that the deal reached to make Nouri al-Maliki the Prime Minister is one of compromises and back room deals. “This had always been the likely outcome,” Alaaldin writes, noting that the deal between Maliki’s State of Law party, the Sadrists, and the Kurds was based on “strategic bluffs and manoeuvring,” meant to force more concessions from Maliki. Alaaldin suspects that the Sadrists will receive “a total of six service ministries,” the release of many Sadrists currently in prison, and possibly one of the deputy prime minster positions. The Kurds want “disputed territories, oil and power-sharing,” and possibly the presidency. The Kurds desire to control Kirkuk is extremely controversial and “could slow the entire process down.” Alaaldin concludes that the deals necessary to form the government may doom it to ineffectiveness: “The forthcoming multi-party coalition government will ensure the politics will be paralysed and the disputes remain unresolved.”
Posted in Elections, Iraq, Kurds, Oil, Political Parties, Sectarianism | Comment »
POMED Notes: “Politics of Religious Freedom and the Minority Question: A Middle East Genealogy”
October 5th, 2010 by Jason
Saba Mahmood presented her forthcoming paper entitled “Politics of Religious Freedom and the Minority Question: A Middle Eastern Genealogy” at Georgetown University’s Berkley Center on Monday night. She was introduced by Jose Casanova, Professor of Sociology at Georgetown University and the head of the Berkley Center’s Program on Globalization, Religion and the Secular.
(To read full notes, continue below the fold or click here for pdf.)
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Posted in Civil Society, Egypt, Foreign Aid, Freedom, Islam and Democracy, Public Opinion, Sectarianism, US foreign policy | Comment »
Iraq: “Last Chance for Democracy”?
October 4th, 2010 by Anna
In an interview with the Associated Press yesterday, Iraqi provincial governor and leading Sunni politician Atheel al-Nujafi asserted that the country is facing its “last chance for democracy.” He warned that the opportunity could disappear if Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki holds on to power after having lost to a Sunni-backed coalition in the last elections. In his view, Maliki’s attempts to make alliances with hardline Shiites and Kurds – and excluding Sunni factions – may mean that the state is “headed for a dictatorship.” His ominous predictions highlight frustrations and distrust of Maliki within Iraq’s Sunni community. Al-Nujafi stressed that current sectarian politics are harmful for democracy: “If Iraqis can’t get together to form a government that is in keeping with the election results, there will be no longer any kind of support for democracy. And in the future there will be no desire to join the democratic process.” Today, a party spokesman for the Sunni-backed Iraqiyya coalition stated that Sunni politicians are united in their opposition to Maliki.
Posted in Elections, Iraq, Political Parties, Sectarianism | Comment »
Iraq: Maliki Chosen as PM Candidate
October 1st, 2010 by Anna
Reidar Visser writes at historiae.org today that “Iraq leads the league of the worst-performing democracies on the planet,” following Iraqi leaders’ continued failure – after 208 days - to form a government. At 4:30pm local Baghdad time today, the National Alliance (NA) finally agreed to choose Nuri al-Maliki as their candidate for Prime Minister, which represents a significant step forward. Visser notes that the predominately Shiite NA “is still experiencing bitter subdivisions about who should be prime minister.” Washington’s policy of “articulat[ing] support for an almost impossible end game of all four lists coming together under some kind of Byzantine, new power-sharing arrangement,” Visser contends, has only kept sectarian politics alive. He concludes that an American-backed power-sharing agreement may have limited applicability in Iraq.
Posted in Elections, Iraq, Political Parties, Sectarianism, US foreign policy | Comment »
