The Washington Post runs two alarmist articles about Syria. Janine Zacharia claims “that U.S. interest in Syria was mostly limited to coaxing it to make peace with Israel.” She goes on to suggest that Syria is refusing to do this. She ignores Bashar al-Assad’s declaration that the Golan “is our Issue.” Somehow she manages to blame the failure of Israel to make peace with Syria on Damascus. After all, it is Israel that refuses to comply with international law on the Golan issue and not Syria. Assad has made it clear that he will change his relationship to Israel’s enemies – Hamas and Hizbullah – if Israel complies with UN resolution 242 and international law. Senator John Kerry recognized this and argued that the Golan issue was key and “must be returned to Syria.” For this obvious observation, Kerry has been attacked as an enemy of Israel and “an Enemy of Peace in the Mideast.” Unfortunately, Zacharia promotes this interpretation that Syria is the enemy of peace. The Washington Post continues to move to the right. Anthony Shadid would never have been so partisan. [JL]

A Resurgent Syria Alarms U.S., Israel
Janine Zacharia: (worked as the Washington bureau chief for The Jerusalem Post. She also writes for The New Republic and makes regular appearances on MSNBC and PBS’s Washington Week. She speaks Hebrew fluently.)
(c) 2010, The Washington Post

BEIRUT – Syria’s fresh interference in Lebanon and its increasingly sophisticated weapons shipments to Hezbollah have alarmed American officials and prompted Israel’s military to consider a strike against a Syrian weapons depot that supplies the Lebanese militia group, U.S. and Israeli officials say.

The evidence of a resurgence by Syria and its deepening influence across the region has frustrated U.S. officials who sought to change Syrian behavior. But the Obama administration has so far failed through its policy of engagement to persuade the country to abandon its support for Hezbollah and sever its alliance with Iran.

“Syria’s behavior has not met our hopes and expectations over the past 20 months, and Syria’s actions have not met its international obligations,” Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton told the Lebanese daily an-Nahar on Nov. 10. “Syria can still choose another path and we hope that it does.”

Israel has complained to the United Nations about long-range missiles and shorter-range rockets that are flowing freely from camps inside Syria to a transit site along the Syrian border with Lebanon and on to Hezbollah. But Israel has so far hesitated to take military action out of concern that such a strike could touch off a conflict even bloodier than the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, said an Israeli military official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter.

In the past, U.S. interest in Syria was mostly limited to coaxing it to make peace with Israel and to end its rule in Lebanon. But now it is increasingly clear that Syria – with its pivotal alliance with Iran and its strategic borders with Israel, Lebanon, Turkey and Iraq – has the ability to shape regional developments on a broader scale.

The Obama administration’s efforts at dialogue with Syria have done little to stop the flow of weapons, end Syria’s practice of sheltering Palestinian leaders of militant groups, or counter Syria’s interference in Lebanon, which has undermined the U.S. effort to promote Lebanese independence from external actors.

Although President Barack Obama has named a new ambassador to Syria, his appointment is being held up on Capitol Hill by senators who say they do not want to send a new envoy to Damascus until the U.S. better articulates how having an ambassador there would help achieve U.S. goals.

Without a permanent top diplomat in the Syrian capital, U.S. envoys including Middle East peace mediator George Mitchell; the assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, Jeffrey Feltman, and Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., have flown to Damascus to try to persuade Syrian leaders to take steps to improve relations with the United States, which hit a low point in 2005.

That year, President George W. Bush, in the wake of Saddam Hussein’s ouster in Iraq, warned Syria to stop the flow of foreign fighters across its border into Iraq, prompting fears in Damascus of a U.S. effort to topple Syria’s leadership. Massive anti-Syrian demonstrations in Beirut forced Syria to withdraw its troops from Lebanon. Syria’s relations with regional allies soured.

Today, there are clear signs that the country has emerged stronger than before.

While the United States maintains sanctions against Syria, American allies such as India and Turkey have inked trade deals with Damascus in recent months that undercut the American effort to change Syrian behavior through economic pressure.

Syria is playing a role in Iraq. In September, a parade of Iraqi politicians flocked to Damascus seeking advice on forming a government.

And Syria’s highly valued alliance with Iran remains strong, to the dismay of U.S. officials who, as the WikiLeaks cables show, have hoped to drive a wedge between Syria and Iran, in part to stop the flow of weapons to Hezbollah.

Nevertheless, Syria’s support of Hezbollah remains robust.

But it is in Lebanon that Syria’s regional resurgence has been felt most profoundly. And Lebanon is also where U.S. officials worry most that its pro-democracy allies are losing ground to pro-Syrian and Iranian elements.

Hadi Mahfouz, a Lebanese government official and writer, says Syria is more effectively managing Lebanese affairs from afar than when it had 15,000 troops inside the country. “It is immune from mistakes,” he said.

Wiam Wahab, a pro-Syrian Druze politician and former Lebanese cabinet minister, says Washington must resolve its differences with Syria if the United States wants to stymie Iran’s influence in Lebanon. “Does the U.S. prefer Syria or Iran” to be running affairs in Lebanon, he asked.

Many Lebanese, especially those in the Christian and Sunni communities, still oppose any Syrian role in Lebanese affairs.

Lebanon’s top security positions – the head of military intelligence and director of general security – are controlled by Syrian-approved appointees. The government can’t make many major decisions without first consulting with Damascus. Lebanon’s top leaders, including Prime Minister Saad Hariri, toe a pro-Syrian line.

But the clearest example of Syria’s restored influence may be Walid Jumblatt. Five years ago, Jumblatt, a well-known Druze politician whose party holds swing votes in Lebanon’s coalition government, marched with the pro-democracy March 14 movement against Syria’s occupation. He now describes that period as a momentary lapse of sanity.

“I feel much more comfortable now. I’m back to my roots,” Jumblatt said in an interview last month.

Jumblatt expresses gratitude that Syria re-established order at the end of the Lebanese civil war and suggests that Syria’s military may need to take over the country again if Hezbollah is indicted by an international tribunal investigating the killing of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq al-Hariri and the country deteriorates into sectarian strife.

“It seems that, well, we cannot govern ourselves by ourselves,” Jumblatt said. “Lebanon is not a nation. It’s a bunch of tribes.”

News World Congress Politics Diplomacy Government and politics International relations AP

The Syrian boast that “it is skilled in negotiating with the Americans,” quoted in the following story by Michael Gordon, was probably made over a decade ago, when Hafiz al-Assad ruled Syria. Bashar al-Assad must believe the same thing, but so what? If this is the most damning quote Gordan can scrape together to suggest that Syria is flexing its muscle in Iraq, he has nothing new or damning. Syria has improved its relations with Maliki. Syria returned an ambassador to Iraq long before most of its neighbors did.desire to see Shiites take their rightful role in leading Iraq. It also joins the US in calling for greater Sunni power sharing in Iraq. Syria has given Baathist Iraqis refuge in Syria. This has saved many from being assassinated by Iraqi vigilantes that US troops have failed to restrain in Iraq. Afterall, the US has even been unable to keep vigilantes from massacring Iraq’s Christian community, which only gave passive support to Saddam Hussein. Syria has also given them refuge. Michael Gordon doesn’t have anything new against Syria. He just repeats the the 2009 Maliki accusation that Syria was behind a massive car bomb in Baghdad – an accusation made in the heat of the election campaign. There was no proof that Syria had a hand in or supported the bombing. Turkey and other neighbors discounted this accusation as politically motivated. [JL] Since this accusation was made, both Syria and Maliki have worked diligently to patch up their relations and move toward economic cooperation and health mutual cooperation. Syria is not undermining the Iraqi state. It is quite clear that Iraqi authorities believe that America’s ally, Saudi Arabia, is Maliki’s greatest detractor and the biggest danger to the US policy of supporting the development of central authority. Gordon does not suggest that Saudis are funding or arming al-Qaida in Iraq in order to pressure Maliki or undermine central authority, which is a good thing. Syria’s greatest sin during the long months it took Iraq to form a new government after the elections was to act as a go-between for Saudi Arabia and Iran – a positive contribution to regional diplomacy. [JL]

Meddling by Neighbors Adds to Iraq’s Woes
2010-12-05
By MICHAEL R. GORDON

….“The challenge for us is to convince Iraq neighbors, particularly the Sunni Arab governments, that relations with a new Iraq are not a zero-sum game, where if Iraq wins, they lose,” noted a Sept. 24, 2009, cable from Ambassador Christopher R. Hill, which was aptly titled “The Great Game, in Mesopotamia.” American diplomatic cables disclosed by WikiLeaks show that Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki’s fears about outside interference are so great that he asked President Obama during a July 2009 visit to Washington to stop the Saudis from intervening. Saudi Arabia’s efforts to rally the Sunnis, the Iraqi leader complained, were heightening sectarian tensions and providing Iran with an excuse to intervene in Iraqi politics, according to an account of the Oval Office session Mr. Maliki shared with Ambassador Hill.

The suspicions have often been mutual. “I don’t trust this man,” King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia told John O. Brennan, Mr. Obama’s top counterterrorism adviser, according to a cable about a March 15, 2009, meeting at the king’s private palace in Saudi Arabia. “He is an Iranian agent.”

Jockeying for influence in Iraq by outside countries has been going on ever since Mr. Hussein was ousted, hardly surprising given Iraq’s strategic position in the Middle East, its vast oil reserves, its multisectarian population and the fact that it is a nascent, if unsteady, democracy largely surrounded by undemocratic neighbors.

The Iranians, who waged a bloody eight-year war with Mr. Hussein, have no desire to see a strong Iraq emerge from the ashes of his regime, especially one that has ties with the United States.

So they have sought to influence its politics by funneling cash to Iraqi political factions, ordering assassinations and shipping arms to militants, some of which an Oct. 23, 2008, cable from Dubai warned might be disguised as Red Crescent medical supplies. The Saudis, who see Iran as the principal threat in the region, have used their control of satellite television and deep pockets to support Sunni groups. Syria, which Iraqi leaders have repeatedly complained to American diplomats is dominated by a Baathist regime unduly sympathetic to the ousted Baathists in Iraq, has allowed insurgent fighters to sneak into Iraq. Even Turkey, which has good relations with the Iraqi government, has secretly financed nationalist and anti-Kurdish Sunni political parties.

Some leading Iraqi politicians have tried to cast themselves as the right ones to resist Iranian influence and help Iraq improve ties with its Arab neighbors.

Ayad Allawi, who leads the Iraqiya Party, has emphasized his relationship with Arab leaders while his supporters have cast Mr. Maliki’s Dawa Party supporters as fearful of interacting with the Arab world, the cables show. Mr. Maliki’s aides have presented themselves and their boss as being more savvy about resisting Iranian pressure than many of their rivals — if only the Americans can keep the Saudis in line.

Iran, by the United States’ reckoning, has done the most to try to shape Iraqi politics. A Nov. 13, 2009, cable sent by Ambassador Hill, which called Iran “a dominant player in Iraq’s electoral politics,” estimated that Iran’s annual support to political groups in Iraq was $100 million to $200 million. Some $70 million of that, the cable asserts, is directed to the Islamic Supreme Council in Iraq, a leading Shiite party that has also worked closely with American officials, and its former militia, the Badr Corps. ….

Like the Iranians, the Saudis have not hesitated to use their money and political influence inside Iraq, according to American diplomats. “For now the Saudis are using their money and media power (al-Arabiyya, al-Sharqiya satellite channels, and other various media they control or influence) to support Sunni political aspirations, exert influence over Sunni tribal groups, and undercut the Shia-led Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) and Iraqi National Alliance (INA),” Ambassador Hill’s “Great Game” cable noted. ….

In a December 2009 meeting with Jeffrey D. Feltman, an assistant secretary of state, Mr. Maliki, who lived in Syria for 16 years during Mr. Hussein’s rule, described the Syrian leaders as more difficult to deal with than the Iranians and recounted that the Syrians had boasted to him during his years in exile that they were skilled in negotiating with the Americans, according to a cable about the meeting.

Of all Iraq’s neighbors, Turkey has forged one of the best working relations with the Iraqi government and with Kurdish officials in northern Iraq.

Wikileak [21]: Elias Murr: “If Israel has to bomb Shia areas, that is Hizbullah’s concern… The Lebanese Army Forces will stay on their bases …. and take over once Hizballah’s militia has been destroyed. (Thanks to Friday Lunch Club)

S E C R E T SECTION  March/10/2008
NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER

2. (S) Charge, Defense Attache and ODC Chief met with Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense Elias Murr on March 10 at his home in Rabieh. The atmosphere of the meeting was cordial and friendly.

5. (S) As for the areas further north in Lebanon such as Keserwan and the Metn, Murr confirmed that Shia are renting in high numbers there because they feel that Israel is going to attack soon. Such action could take place as early as April 2008, he warned. ..

18. (S) Making clear that he was not responsible for passing messages to Israel, Murr told us,…if Israel has to bomb all of these places in the Shia areas as a matter of operational concern, that is Hizballah’s problem. According to Murr, this war is not with Lebanon, it is will Hizballah. ….. As such, Murr is trying to ascertain how long an offensive would be required to clean out Hizballah in the Beka’a. The LAF will move to pre-position food, money, and water with these units so they can stay on their bases when Israel comes for Hizballah–discreetly, Murr added. (S) Murr also gave guidance to Sleiman that the LAF should not get involved “when Israel comes.” …. that he promised Sleiman the political cover for LAF inaction. …..For Murr, the LAF’s strategic objective was to survive a three week war “completely intact” and able to take over once Hizballah’s militia has been destroyed. ……

[Ironically, Murr was encouraging Israel to destroy Hizbullah a month before Hizbullah sent its militia into West Beirut to take over Hariri outposts in May 2008.]

Lebanon defense minister ‘offered invasion advice for Israel’
Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News

Syria’s Assad plays the security card
2010-12-02

CAIRO, Dec. 2 (UPI) — Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has resisted U.S. efforts to pry his regime away from its strategic alliance with Iran, but he seems to be conducting discreet diplomacy with Western Europe and with China.

In recent weeks Assad has dispatched his security chiefs to London, Paris and Rome to share intelligence on terrorist groups, according to Intelligence Online, a Paris-based Web site that covers global security affairs.

Whether this signals that Damascus, which over the past five years has painstakingly rebuilt its regional influence following its collision with the George W. Bush presidency, is preparing to put some distance between it and Tehran is far from clear.

But there has been persistent speculation that differences between Damascus and Tehran over Lebanon and the activities of Hezbollah are emerging.

Lebanon has traditionally been firmly within Syria’s sphere of influence, but Iran is seen to be driving to expand the Shiite crescent through Iraq and the Persian Gulf to Lebanon, where Shiites form the largest sect.

The coming weeks may shed some light on Assad’s murky moves, although most of what transpires within the Damascus regime is shrouded in opacity.

Still, Assad is determined to maintain Syrian domination in Lebanon, historically part of Greater Syria until the French peeled it off to establish what it intended to be a pro-Western Christian nation in 1943.

According to Intelligence Online, Assad sent Gen. Ali Mamlouk, the head of Syria’s General Intelligence service, to Rome Oct. 19 to sign an anti-terrorism cooperation agreement.

He was reportedly accompanied by Gen. Zohair Hamad, a senior officer of the GI’s external branch and a counter-terrorism specialist.

On Nov. 16 Mamlouk flew to London. On that trip he was said to have been accompanied by Gen. Thaer al-Omar, deputy director of the GI’s counter-terrorism branch, and Gen. Hafez Makhlouf, deputy director of its domestic branch.

Mamlouk handed Britain’s Secret Intelligence Service, better known as MI6, a list of British militant Islamists who have studied in Damascus.

Most were of Pakistani origin. Some had been apprehended trying to sneak into Iraq to join the insurgency there. Intelligence Online reported that Mamlouk offered to hand them over to the British.

It’s not known whether MI6, which throughout the turbulent 1980s regarded the Syrians as implacable foes because of their links to terrorist groups, accepted the offer.

But Mamlouk reportedly emphasized that Damascus was keen to cooperate on counter-terrorism and intelligence matters in exchange for MI6’s help to acquire advanced electronic surveillance systems.

The British government cloaked Mamlouk’s visit in secrecy. From there he flew to Paris Nov. 22 to prepare for a visit by Assad to meet President Nicolas Sarkozy.

The French, who governed Syria during the League of Nations Mandate between the world wars, have maintained links with Damascus over the years.

But they have also given sanctuary to opponents of the regime, most notably Abdul Halim Khaddam, longtime vice president who defected in June 2005, denouncing the regime and accusing it of assassinating Lebanese statesman Rafik Hariri in February that year.

In Paris, Mamlouk reportedly met Claude Gueant, Sarkozy’s troubleshooter and chief of staff who handles liaison with Damascus.

But while all this was going on, Assad was also apparently taking care of business with a different set of diplomatic partners to the east — which may turn out to be more important than his dealings in the West.

He sent Maj. Gen. Bassam Merhej, identified as director of Assad’s security and military bureau, to Beijing Nov. 23.

“His real destination was probably Pyongyang, with whom Syria has a nuclear cooperation program,” Intelligence Online reported.

That program suffered a major setback Sept. 6, 2007, when the Israeli air force destroyed a nuclear reactor being built by North Korea at al-Kibar in eastern Syria on the Euphrates River.

Merhej is reported to have replaced Maj. Gen. Mohammed Suleiman, who was assassinated Aug.2, 2008.

Merhej was accompanied by Col. Jihad Shehadeh of the army’s Corps of Engineers, who has been seconded to the Center for Scientific Study and Research, which is involved in Syria’s nuclear program, Intelligence Online said.

He was also accompanied by an Iranian, identified as Ali Zadeh, officially the cultural attache at the Iranian Embassy in Damascus but “in reality in charge of logistics for the Iranian nuclear program in Syria.”

Did the Hezabollah also “killed” Samir Kassir and Georges Hawi?

“Aujourd’hui, Libération affirme, en se basant sur “des fuites de personnes proches de l’enquête”, que les huit portables ont été “repérés lors des quatre autres attentats” qui ont suivi l’assassinat de Rafic Hariri. Il s’agit notamment de ceux qui ont coûté la vie au journaliste franco-libanais Samir Kassir, le 2 juin 2005, et à l’ancien chef du Parti communiste local, Georges Hawi, le 21 juin de la même année. Enfin, le quotidien affirme que l’enquête mènerait désormais jusqu’à un certain Haj Salim, qui est l’adjoint du chef militaire du Hezbollah, Imad Moughnieh, tué en février 2008 à Damas dans l’explosion de sa voiture.

Who is really the big boss in Lebanon?
By Michael Young, Daily Star
Thursday, December 02, 2010

Little attention was paid last week to an Al-Hayat interview with the Iranian ambassador to Lebanon, Ghadanfar Roknabadi, particularly what he had to say about Syria’s role in Lebanon.

The interviewer asked the ambassador whether, in the same way that Iran was “familiar” with Iraq, did not Iran consider that Syria was “familiar” with Lebanon “more than others were.” Therefore, just as Syria had accepted an Iranian solution in Iraq, would not Iran accept a Syrian solution in Lebanon? It was a subtle question, which left out the dreaded words “spheres of interest,” but the substance was clear. Would Iran concur that Syria was entitled to lead in Lebanon?

Roknabadi diplomatically, but firmly, brushed that thought away. Yes, neighboring countries were more familiar with Lebanese details, but then the ambassador added: “Don’t forget the deep civilizational and cultural ties between Iran and Lebanon. The matter of Syria as a neighbor is one thing, and the strategic relationship between Iran and Syria [is something else]; no one can deny Syria’s role, but the old civilizational and cultural ties between the Iranian and Lebanese peoples have established common ground between them.”

The response must have made officials in Damascus cringe. Not only did Roknabadi sidestep the question of a pre-eminent Syrian role in Lebanon, he placed it against the backdrop of the Iranian-Syrian relationship, as if to affirm that Tehran was the leading partner in any Lebanese arrangement. While the Iranians, along with Hizbullah, have continued to look toward a Syrian-Saudi solution to the deadlock in Beirut over how to deal with the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, one gets the distinct sense lately, particularly after the speech last Sunday of Hizbullah’s secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah, that any such deal is Iran’s and Hizbullah’s to accept or refuse

Iran and Syria are not about to divorce over Lebanon, or over anything else, but Roknabadi put the relationship into perspective. Iran is the dominant actor in Beirut….

Assad: ‘Golan Heights “is our issue”‘
By Meris Lutz, Los Angeles Times
December 2, 2010, Reporting from Beirut

Syria’s Assad seems to suggest backing for Hamas negotiable, leaked cables say
But even as President Bashar Assad appeared willing to reduce ties with the Palestinian militant group ruling the Gaza Strip, he brushed off pressure to alter the dynamics of his friendship with Iran.

Syrian President Bashar Assad described Hamas as an “uninvited guest” in his country in confidential conversations with American lawmakers, and appeared to suggest he would be willing to give up the alliance in exchange for incentives, according to several documents contained in the trove of leaked diplomatic cables posted online by the website WikiLeaks.

But even as Assad appeared willing to downgrade ties with the Palestinian militant group that rules the Gaza Strip, he brushed off pressure to change the dynamics of his friendship with Iran. He argued against his government putting pressure on Tehran over its nuclear program in exchange for a peace deal between Syria and Israel.

“Too many cooks spoil the meal,” he is quoted saying in a January 2010 cable.

The leaked cables shed new light on international efforts to forge a Syrian-Israeli peace accord and on private meetings involving the leader of Syria’s secretive government.

Assad shows himself in the leaked correspondence to be a shrewd negotiator. He told the American delegation visiting Damascus that he could help secure the Iraqi border against the flow of foreign fighters into Syria’s neighbor. But he said he wouldn’t do it “for free,” asking the U.S. to lift sanctions that banned the sale of commercial airplanes and their parts to Syria.

“In the U.S., you like to shoot [terrorists],” he said. “Suffocating their networks is far more effective.”

Diplomats and analysts view Syrian cooperation as crucial to ensuring the security of Iraq, Lebanon and Israel as well as isolating Iran.

Although Syria has forged strategic alliances with ideologically driven, Iranian-backed movements such as Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah and Hamas, Damascus continues to view the rise of political Islam as one of its primary internal threats. Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal has resided in Damascus since 2001, but such a blunt assessment of the group by Assad hasn’t been made public before.

“Hamas is Muslim Brotherhood, but we have to deal with the reality of their presence,” Assad told another group of American lawmakers in March 2009, according to an additional leaked cable, calling the Islamic movement an “uninvited guest” and likening it to the same Muslim Brotherhood his father, Hafez Assad, brutally uprooted from Syria in the 1980s.

In none of the dispatches does the younger Assad explicitly say that he would cut ties with Hamas, Hezbollah or Iran in exchange for the return of the Golan Heights, which was seized by Israel during the 1967 Middle East War. But he emphasized in the more recent meeting with U.S. lawmakers that the Golan Heights “is our issue,” according to the January 2010 confidential dispatch.

The documents also reveal an unsuccessful push by U.S. and regional leaders to persuade Israel to return the mountainous occupied region.

According to the documents, Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.), chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, reportedly told the ruler of Qatar in February 2010 that Israel should “work the return of the Golan Heights into a formula for peace” with Israel.

Other regional leaders recognized Syria’s willingness to negotiate. Former Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf urged the U.S. to seek Syrian cooperation on Iraq and Lebanon. “If you want [Assad] to play ball, he needs comfort on other fronts — namely, the Golan Heights,” Musharraf told a high-ranking congressional delegation in April 2007, according to the WikiLeaks disclosures.

Israel has in recent years refused to negotiate a full withdrawal from the Golan. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told U.S. lawmakers that giving up the heights would only result in assurances that Syria would later “tear up,” according to a February 2009 cable.

Guardian

“With respect to Syria, Russian experts believe that Bashar’s regime is better than the perceived alternative of instability or an Islamist government, and argue against a U.S. policy of isolation. Russia has concluded that its arms sales are too insignificant to threaten Israel, or to disturb growing Israeli-Russian diplomatic engagement, but sufficient to maintain “special” relations with Damascus”

Guardian (GB): US embassy cables: Russia’s growing clout in the global arms trade
2010-12-01 21:33:28.650 GMT

A Syrian perspective

From Syrian Ambassador Imad Moustapha’s talk at the Contemporary Arab Studies at the University of Georgetown, on Monday November 29, 2010.

Two important developments took place in November that will leave an indelible impact on the peace process (or lack thereof) in the Middle East.

First, the US offered Israel an unprecedented bribe for simply agreeing not to undermine the prospects of resuming talks with the Palestinians for a mere 90 days. In return for extending the moratorium on building settlements in the West Bank–that excludes Jerusalem–the US administration has committed itself to providing Israel with both the wherewithal to further consolidate its occupation of Arab territories, and a guarantee to oppose any attempt to unilaterally declare a Palestinian state. In the long annals of US acquiescence to Israeli blackmail, this is a remarkably unique instance of amply rewarding the culprit for agreeing to partially abstain from breaking international law for a brief period of time.

Second, the Israeli Knesset passed a resolution that will prevent any Israeli government from evacuating the occupied East Jerusalem and Syrian Golan without a general referendum. Given the stark shift to the right in the Israeli body politic, one immediately realizes that the real purpose of this resolution is to render the possibility of freeing East Jerusalem or the Golan a practical impossibility.

The implications of both actions are grave and nefarious. They only reaffirm that the Israeli government lacks both the will and the capacity to make peace with any of its neighbors…..

Friday, 26 October 2007
Al-Akhbar

In an August 18, 2008 meeting with US Ambassador (Beirut) Michelle Sison, STL prosecuter Daniel Bellemare voiced his ‘concern’ for the lack of ‘assistance’ he was getting from the americans, something he relayed to the State Department … and he reiterated 3 specific queries:
(1) He wanted a clear ‘yes or no’ whether certain (US) Intelligence was to be submitted for his review …
(2) He asked to get US ‘investigators on loan’…
(3) He asked the US to ‘pressure the British to be more forthright…”
Moreover, Bellemare asked the Americans to financially support the STL …
He asked to have access to former Hezbollah members who ‘reside in the US’ …
He finally told Sison that he ‘will not travel to Syria, unless the Americans (or others) gave him a list of ‘Syrian officials’ to investigate … And then, if the Syrians become uncooperative, it would be easier for him to publically mention their ‘lack of cooperation’… Bellmare added that this should prode ‘other Syrians’ to come forth … Bellemare pointed to the importance of getting to the Syrians before year’s end (date at which ‘Chapter 7′ expires) …and the possibilty that some of these sought after individuals either ‘disappear or get eliminated’…

http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/08/09PARIS1162.html]

FM AMEMBASSY PARIS
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NSC WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
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S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 001162

SUBJECT: WHY FRANCE CLAIMS SYRIA HELPED CONVINCE IRAN TO
FREE FRENCH PRISONER …

SYRIAN ROLE: THE SPIN
———————

¶2. (SBU) Since August 11, when a French Presidency press release first singled out Syria for appreciation, French government officials, journalists, and academics have pondered the “important” and “influential” role Syria played as “mediator” between France and Iran in the conflict surrounding the July 1 arrest by Iranian security officers of French citizen Clotilde Reiss…

SYRIAN ACTIONS: THE JURY IS STILL OUT
————————————-
MFA Syria Desk
Officer Patrick Durel on August 18 confirmed that President Sarkozy called Syrian President Assad August 5 to ask for his assistance …. Assad did not, however, name his interlocutor or interlocutors. “I’m doing what I can to help” was the message he sent to Paris, Durel explained.

NEW PUBLIC POSTURE FROM ASSAD?
——————————

¶4. (S/NF) Richier and Durel suggested that the GOF has sought to exaggerate the Syrian role deliberately, in order to demonstrate to Syria the praise they might win for playing a constructive role in the region, and in order to create tension between Syria and Iran. And the French believe they have succeeded on both fronts. As a sign that Syrians welcomed the praise they received for playing a helpful part in Reiss’s release, Durel cited the absence of a public denial by Assad. In the past, Assad disavowed such activity.

Durel explained, for instance, that Assad had agreed in private during July of 2008 to pass a message from Paris to Tehran about the dangers of the Iranian nuclear program, but he publicly denied having done so, declaring he did not want to play the role of intermediary. Moreover, according to Richier, the French believe their reference to Syrian intervention has sewn some discomfort among the Iranians, whom the French hear from various sources want them to “stop this stupid Syria business.” In advance of Assad’s August 19 visit to Tehran, the French continued to tout Syria’s role and encouraged him to raise the issue of Clotilde Reiss’s still-pending court case.

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 000174
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SUBJECT: SECRETARY OF DEFENSE GATES’S MEETING WITH FRENCH FOREIGN
MINISTER KOUCHNER, FEBRUARY 8, 2010

¶1. (S/NF) SUMMARY: At the request of the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates (SecDef) met with French FM Bernard Kouchner in Paris on February 8, 2010. Discussions included how to persuade the Chinese and others to support sanctions against
Iran, and the importance of targeting the Iranian government rather than the people….

¶2. (S/NF) Kouchner said that the U.S. and France were working well together in New York on an Iran sanctions resolution – all the problems now are with the Chinese. Kouchner had met Chinese FM Yang twice the previous week, but said that right now it was difficult to predict whether the Chinese would veto or abstain. He noted that the Chinese were furious over the U.S.-Taiwan arms deal, which would make it difficult to get a resolution passed in February….

¶4. (S/NF) SecDef urged Kouchner not to exaggerate the Chinese concern over Taiwan – they would need a little more time and, in the end, an abstention might be a good enough result for us. He added that we should urge the Saudis to weigh in with Beijing since China has more at
stake in its relations with Saudi Arabia than Iran. He commented that the Saudis always want to “fight the Iranians to the last American,” but that now it is time for them to get into the game.

¶5. (S/NF) Raising his concerns about bringing non-permanent UNSC members on board, SecDef reported that in Ankara he had impressed upon PM Erdogan the dangers of proliferation to other Middle East countries or an Israeli strike if the Iranian nuclear program couldn’t be
stopped. Kouchner expressed his doubts about Turkey’s desire for a constructive role in region, describing Erdogan’s comments to Ahmadinejad defending the Iranian nuclear program as dangerous…….

¶8. (S/NF) Further explaining the U.S. position, SecDef said that while our understanding of the Iranian leadership was opaque, we do know that they do not like to be isolated. The USG would soon be designatingseveral IRGC companies under the Iran Sanctions Act. His own view was
that it was important to get the UNSCR passed quickly, even if it were not as harsh as we might wish. Once a resolution is passed, he explained, it will offer a legal platform on which the EU and
individual states can impose harsher sanctions.

¶9. (S/NF) Kouchner agreed, but added that another problem was to get  he nine votes needed in the UNSC. He said that Lebanon was one of France’s prime targets in this respect, but he doubted that France would be able to bring the resolution to a vote during its presidency,
as February is a very short month. Gabon, which takes the chair in March, is a “good asset for France,” he commented. Audibert interjected that the Russians had supported deleting some sections of the draft UNSCR, but had approved including sanctions on the IRGC. Kouchner said that France had to proceed carefully since a French woman had been taken hostage in Tehran. He disparaged FM Mottaki’s duplicitous performance in Munich.

Media Pushes Narrative That Arabs Want War With Iran, Ignores Cables That Show Arabs Urging Restraint
2010-12-01 23:04:54.500 GMT

Media Pushes Narrative That Arabs Want War With Iran, Ignores Cables That Show Arabs Urging Restraint Over the weekend, the whistleblower website WikiLeaks began leaking hundreds of diplomatic cables sent by U.S. embassies and diplomatic staff …

S E C R E T PARIS 002743
SUBJECT: U/S BURNS’ JUNE 12 DINNER MEETING WITH FRENCH
POLITICAL DIRECTOR ARAUD

¶1. (U) June 12, 2007, 8:30 P.M.

¶3. (S) Summary: U/S Burns and Political Director Gerard Araud
met June 12 for a lengthy discussion of key bilateral issues,…
Iran/Lebanon
————
¶15. (C) Burns also reviewed how Iran violated UNSC
resolutions by providing arms to Hizballah in Lebanon, which
appears to be taking new steps to threaten Israel, and to the
Taliban in Afghanistan. Loras responded that, given that the
evidence on Hizballah arms in Lebanon is not verifiable,
France is not currently pushing Iran on this issue. Araud
added that France is trying to keep open its dialogue with
Larijani on Lebanon…….
¶16. (C) Araud stated that Sarkozy had told President Bush
that France would maintain its policy on Lebanon, minus its
exclusive Harriri focus. Sarkozy had also solicited
President Bush’s advice about talking with Syria. Araud said
Sarkozy responded that now is not the time, as Syria remains
very destructive. Burns told Araud that the United States
had been surprised at not having been consulted prior to
France’s recent call for a conference on Lebanon in Paris.
Araud contritely agreed that consultations in advance were
warranted. Returning briefly to a discussion of the renewal
of UNIFIL, MOD advisor Mondoloni revealed that the French
military would like to downsize its presence, but that
civilian leaders had emphasized to them that political
obligations were paramount. …

Israel tells the French that Turkey has helped Iran get weapons-related material for nuclear program (the French seem skeptical).

4. (S/NF) The French participants in the Strategic Dialogue
noted profound disquiet among the Israelis about Turkey,
Bereyziat said. He reported that the Israelis claimed the
Turks have allowed weapons-related material for Iran’s
nuclear program to transit Turkey, with Prime Minister
Erdogan’s full knowledge. The French replied that Israel
would need to have clear and concrete proof of such activity
before leveling accusations. The Israelis replied that they
are collecting evidence which they will eventually publicize…

T_Desco writes in the comment section:

The picture of a reasonable, thoughtful Syrian president that emerges from this interview stands in marked contrast to the caricature that one finds all too often in our media.

The Saudi ‘documentary’ ‘Murder in Beirut’ by Charlie Smith, Christopher Mitchell/ORTV includes a number of shots of the first page of a purported UN tribunal/investigation document. The text is very similar to the Follath/Der Spiegel article.
Interestingly, the author still uses the Mehlis estimate regarding the amount of explosives (“1000 kg”). Since June 2006 the estimate was increased to “at least 1,200 kg” (Third UN report) and then to “closer to 1,800 kg than to 1,200 kg” (Forth UN report in September 2006). At the same time, the text contains information about the Mitsubishi Canter van that was only disclosed in July 2007:
“The van was then shipped to the United Arab Emirates and transported to a showroom close to Tripoli in northern Lebanon in December 2004, where it was sold. The Commission has recently acquired information regarding the sale of the van to individuals who could be involved in the final preparation of the van for the attack on Rafik Hariri.” (§24, Eighth UN report, July 2007).
However, if reports by Al-Akhbar are correct, that information had already been acquired in April 2006 by the Lebanese investigation (interestingly, the first to suggest that the van was bought in Tripoli was Faisal Akbar in January 2006 in his later retracted testimony).

This leads us to three possibilities:

The document is
1. not genuine;
2. just sloppy regarding the amount of explosives; 3. genuine and was written between April 2006 and June 2006.
According to CBC, Wissam Eid’s report was filed “in the first months of 2006″. However, the air of certainty that apparently pervades the text does not seem to correspond to a report that just relies on circumstantial evidence:

“Lebanon/Hizballah Behind Hariri’s Assassination

In the weeks prior to the Harir (sic) murder, a number of Hizballah operational cells closely followed the movements of the former Prime Minister, collected accurate information on his movements and waited for the best opportunity to assassinate him. According to accumulated information, this activity was carried out by a compartmented unit in Hizballah headed by Selim Ayyash (alias Haj Selim).

… (PHOTO “A” ATTACHED), who is a senior operative with a rich ‘operational’ past, is from the Nabatiya area in South Lebanon, was born on 10 November 1963 and is currently living in the Shiite area of south Beirut. He is the commander of the classified unit that deals in secret and compartmented activity in the Lebanese arena. He is married to Fatima al-Hajj and they have three children.

… was the commander of the assassination squad. He was apparently responsible for procuring a white Mitsubishi Canter in late January 2005, far from Beirut, and in a way that precluded him from being identified as the procurer of the vehicle. Hizballah demolition unit specialists, who have a great deal of experience in preparing car bombs, turned the vehicle into a car bomb and armed it with 1,000 kg of varied explosives (TNT, C4, RDX).

The unit headed by … was in 2005 directly subordinate to the military commander of Hizballah, Imad Mughniyah. The connection between …

Eyad (DOB: 20 April 1960) (PHOTO “B” ATTACHED) a former operative of Hizballah’s external operations apparatus and in 2005, “.

The names are mostly blanked out, but remain visible in some of the shots. A few lines of a second page are also discernible through the paper (unclear/guessed words are marked with a “?”):

“Eyad was?
minutely? involved in all aspects and stages? of the operation. Selim”

further down:

“was present? at the Parliament building. This enabled Ayyash then to precisely time the explosion”

further down:

“Samir Kassir?” “(2? June? 2005)” “George Hawi (21″

“2005)?. In each case there were cell phones – later identified as tied to”

further down:

“town? of Rumin?” “PHOTO”
“Ghamlush?”

“training? in Iran prior to the assassination”.

The similarities to Follath’s article are striking:

“He is believed to be Abd al-Majid Ghamlush, from the town of Rumin, a Hezbollah member who had completed training course in Iran. (…)

Ghamlush’s recklessness led investigators to the man they now suspect was the mastermind of the terrorist attack: Hajj Salim, 45. A southern Lebanese from Nabatiyah, Salim is considered to be the commander of the “military” wing of Hezbollah and lives in South Beirut, a Shiite stronghold. Salim’s secret “Special Operational Unit” reports directly to Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, 48.

Imad Mughniyah (…) ran the unit until Feb. 12, 2008 (…).

The deeper the investigators in Beirut penetrated into the case, the clearer the picture became, according to the SPIEGEL source. They have apparently discovered which Hezbollah member obtained the small Mitsubishi truck used in the attack. They have also been able to trace the origins of the explosives, more than 1,000 kilograms of TNT, C4 and hexogen.

(…) And, once again, there was evidence of involvement by the Hezbollah commando unit, just as there has been in each of more than a dozen attacks against prominent Lebanese in the last four years.”

(m. emph.)

Note that Follath uses the correct(ed?) estimate of “more than 1,000 kilograms” of explosives.

Egypt Sought Spies in Iraq, Syria to Stop Iran, WikiLeaks Shows
2010-11-30 23:12:11.192 GMT

By Heather Langan
Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) — Egypt’s spy agency recruited agents
in Iraq and Syria to try to counter Iranian intelligence
operations, according to a U.S. diplomatic cable posted on the
WikiLeaks website.
“Iran must ‘pay the price’ for its actions and not be
allowed to interfere in regional affairs,” said Omar Suleiman,
head of the intelligence service and one of President Hosni
Mubarak’s closest aides, according to the April 2009 cable. It
gives details of a meeting between Suleiman and Admiral Michael
Mullen, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff.
“If you want Egypt to cooperate with you on Iran, we
will,” Suleiman told Mullen, according to the cable. “It would
take a big burden off our shoulders.”
Egypt has “started a confrontation with Hezbollah and
Iran,” the cable cited Suleiman as saying. “We will not allow
Iran to operate in Egypt,” he said.
Egypt, a close U.S. ally, has accused Iran of using proxy
groups such as the Lebanese Shiite Hezbollah movement to
increase its influence in the Middle East. Egypt and Iran
haven’t had full diplomatic relations since 1979, when Egyptian
President Anwar Sadat gave refuge to the deposed Iranian shah,
Reza Pahlavi.
Suleiman told Mullen that Egypt “sent a clear message to
Iran that if they interfere in Egypt, Egypt will interfere in
Iran,” according to the cable, sent to Washington from the U.S.
Embassy in Cairo.
Suleiman added that the Egyptian intelligence service had
begun “recruiting agents in Iraq and Syria,” according to the
cable. He also said the U.S. shouldn’t limit its focus on Iran
to one issue at a time, such as the Islamic republic’s nuclear
program.