WTIO30 FMEE 030008
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 15/2/20102011
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2  (ABELE)
2.A POSITION 2010/12/03 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4S / 90.2E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND NINETY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 3.0/3.5 /W  1.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT
 RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT       NE: 240   SE: 200   SO: 220   NO: 150
34 KT       NE: 170   SE: 150   SO: 150   NO: 110
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/12/03 12 UTC: 20.2S/92.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
24H: 2010/12/04 00 UTC: 21.8S/93.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2010/12/04 12 UTC: 23.3S/94.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2010/12/05 00 UTC: 24.4S/95.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2010/12/05 12 UTC: 24.7S/96.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2010/12/06 00 UTC: 24.4S/98.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0  AND CI=3.5
NORTHWESTERLY WINDHSEAR IS NOW OBVIOUS ON MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING AS IT UNDERGOES AN INCREASING
WESTERLY WINDSHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BE ENDED ON AND AFTER TAU 60H.
THIS SYSTEM HAS STILL CROSS THE EASTERN BOUNDARY OF THE AREA OF
RESPONSABILITY OF THE RSMC - LA REUNION.
NEXT TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 0600Z BY THE
AUSRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTER OF PERTH
(AXAU01).