February 7 Issue  |  Subscribe  |  Renew

Victor Davis Hanson

The Passing of the Old Order
And its beneficiaries aren’t going quietly.

American reality has been turned upside down in just 20 years.

Americans no longer count on their news to be filtered and shaped by the Associated Press or the New York Times. Nor do millions have it read to them in the evening by CBS, ABC, or NBC anchorpersons — not with the Internet, cable news, and talk radio. Matt Drudge’s website, The Drudge Report, reaches far more Americans than does CBS anchor Katie Couric.

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The old notion that America’s most successful citizens are turned out by prestigious four-year universities — the more private and Ivy League, the better — overseen by disinterested professors is also nearing an end. Private for-profit trade schools and online colleges are certifying millions in particular skills.

Meanwhile, the high jobless rate among recent college graduates, who are burdened by thousands of dollars in student loans, is starting to resemble the Freddie Mac– and Fannie Mae–spawned financial bubble of 2008, in which millions of indebted and unemployed borrowers could not pay back exorbitant federally insured home loans. For parents to keep borrowing $200,000 to certify their children with high-prestige degrees that don’t necessarily lead to good jobs seems about as wise as buying a sprawling house that one can’t afford. James Cameron, Bill Gates, Sean Hannity, Tom Hanks, Steve Jobs, Rush Limbaugh, Tiger Woods, and Mark Zuckerberg have all made good livings without earning B.A.s.

Therapeutic college curricula and hyphenated “studies” courses have not made graduates better read or more skilled in math and science. For many employers, the rigor of the new B.A. is scarcely equivalent to that of the old high-school diploma. The global-warming “crisis” has reminded Americans that careerist Ph.D.s can be just as likely to fudge evidence and distort research as political lobbyists. The old blanket respect for academia and academics is eroding.

After the Greek financial fraud and collapse, the European Union identity crisis, and the insolvency in California, there will be no more new defined-benefit retirement programs. A shrinking and debt-ridden youth cohort cannot and will not continue to subsidize an expanding and more affluent retired generation. Soon, 65 will be the new 50. We are going to see lots more seniors working well into their 70s.

Few believe that Detroit’s problem is too few unionized autoworkers or that the SEIU has resulted in better public service and efficiency from government employees. One cannot point to a government conspiracy or an ignorant public to explain why union membership has now fallen to 12 percent of the American workforce.

The welfare-entitlement state is likewise a relic. Only a few political dinosaurs are calling for more spending, more entitlements, and more taxes. Fairly or not, most Europeans and Americans accept that the limits of redistribution have been reached. President Obama’s talk of “spreading the wealth” and “fat-cat” bankers has not done much to lower $1.3 trillion deficits and 9.4 percent unemployment. So he has dropped the high-tax, more-benefits, class-warfare rhetoric in favor of writing articles in the Wall Street Journal assuring business of less regulation and more government help.

Race relations are being redefined as never before. Interracial marriage, integration, and immigration have made the old rubrics — “white,” “black,” “brown” — obsolete. Rigid, half-century-old affirmative-action programs have not caught up with everyday reality. Their overseers are likewise ossified, now that millions in an interracial America do not fit into their precise racial slots, and being white — to the degree that it can be easily defined — is not synonymous with innate privilege. The notion that Tiger Woods’s children need an admissions or employment edge over natives of Appalachia or immigrants from India is surreal.

Abroad, things are just as upside down. Russia is no longer the avatar of global Communism but the world’s largest cutthroat oil producer. China’s cultural revolution is now about making tons of money and driving luxury cars. The European Union has been reduced to pointing fingers and standing in line to beg Germany for cash — a far cry from its advertised 21st-century utopian brotherhood. Our old neighbor Mexico is now a near-failed narco-state, bearing a greater resemblance to Afghanistan than to its brother nations in North America.

In response to this topsy-turvy world, the traditional media, tenured professors, well-paid public employees, rigid ethnic and racial lobbies, unions, organized retirees, open-borders advocates, and entrenched politicians all are understandably claiming that we live in an uncivil age.

We well may, but we also are seeing the waning of an old established order. And the resulting furor suggests that the old beneficiaries are not going quietly into that good night.

Victor Davis Hanson is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, the editor of Makers of Ancient Strategy: From the Persian Wars to the Fall of Rome, and the author of The Father of Us All: War and History, Ancient and Modern.

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 eristic

01/29/11 12:16

"Americans no longer count on their news to be filtered and shaped by the Associated Press or the New York Times."

And yet despite the ready availability of reliable information from a plethora of authoritative sources the majority of the American voters still elected a self-confessed, flaming commie doofus to the presidency. The sad fact is that having information does not guarantee sensible behavior. The people heard but they did (and many still do not) listen.

"Only a few political dinosaurs are calling for more spending, more entitlements, and more taxes."

Yeah. They are called Democrats.

"James Cameron, Bill Gates, Sean Hannity, Tom Hanks, Steve Jobs, Rush Limbaugh, Tiger Woods, and Mark Zuckerberg have all made good livings without earning B.A.s."

And what do all these people have in common? They have intelligence. There is a world of difference between intelligence and education. Smart people will find a way to succeed irrespective of their education. Unintelligent people will will not be made successful by mere education. (Especially if their degrees are in some worthless hyphenated studies program.) About 1 in 4 people are college capable. The remainder of people need education and training to provide them useful skills but college is not the place obtain that. An increase in the number of people in college does change this. Currently %60 of people enter college but only %40 actually obtain a degree. The result is about %24 of the population obtain college degrees. Duh! This is the percentage we already knew. The dropouts simply have debt and no skills. That colleges continue this tragedy borders on the criminal.

BTW, this is the dirty little secret so brilliantly discussed by Herrnstein and Murray in their seminal work. As the old saying goes, "Facts are stubborn things."

Look at human history and behavior throughout the ages. The sad fact is that human nature, being what it is, those who have a vested interest in the current situation will not go quietly despite the obvious fact (which they know!) that the system is failing and how much worse a catastrophic failure will be rather than a soft transition to a more stable system. These people would rather ride this horse to death rather than get off and keep it alive. Our system will not reform it will collapse. Look at history and ask if it has ever been otherwise? Are we somehow immune to the frailties of being human?

Hunker down and pray for daylight; this is going to get ugly.

David T

01/28/11 12:24

The new dark ages are upon us. Let us pray the new Renaissance does not take a thousand years to unfold.

tyhmaplanet

01/27/11 19:01

Vic, buddy, I usually like your speculative drivel, but you've delved into the realm of dreamy blather, and not very circumspect, at that. You and Prager. Is it contagious?

While some of what you point out is true, the outcomes you suggest are not done deals. Much is yet to be determined. Much is yet to be seen.

I particularly winced at your "post-racial" nonsense. True, minorities don't need affirmative action to succeed. They never did. That was a crock of manure from the beginning. However, if anything, America is far more racially divided than ever. Obama and his fawning liberal crowd have seen to that.

Multiculturalism is still the mode and it won't lead to a "post-racial" America. "Melting Pot" would, however, but assimilation is a rather repressed concept. The left will continue to vigorously suppress it and trumpet multiculturalism. Despite your perspective of change in the media, they, yet, largely, control it, along with both public and higher education. They have a practically insurmountable edge in spreading their false and destructive doctrines.

Next time, spend a little more time constructing ideas with substance, rather than impromptu.

Roran

01/27/11 18:10

As a tenured professor, I heartily agree. "Higher education" has largely degenerated into a lowdown racket.

Montanachuck

01/27/11 17:09

As usual, VDH nails it - several "old" political orders may be crumbling, and there are a few encouraging pieces to be seen. But they don't, as yet, go together to make a comforting picture.

Unfortunately, for now, those new or substantive pieces rising from the rubble are facing a bulldozer. I'll get to that later.

The "unifying of America" that BHO envisioned in his campaign was a duplicitous euphamism for the coalition of polarized factions wrought by his own divisiveness.

He played the race card repeatedly and cleverly - dividing "all minorities" into one class and "typical white people" into a smaller class. He divided a few "fat cat" "haves" into one class and everyone else, cast as resentful "have-nots" into another.

There are more self-perceived "have-nots" than "haves" - despite the fact that most of them work for a living and a good number of them may have picked up trade school or on-line diploma. Taxed beyond frustration, many of them have, as DeToqueville predicted they would, voted themselves largesse from the public treasury, perhaps to get something back that they feel was rightfully theirs - and may do so again, unless a viable alternative is clearly in sight.

A reactionary anti-BHO anti-big-government vote will not happen again in 2012. Those forces and their minions can only be extirpated by real performance from fresh leadership. For November 2012, that's a tall order on a short time frame.

As VDH points out, the social dynamics at play in our society have (and this is a good thing) blurred formerly clear-cut racial distinctions. Nonetheless, BHO relentlessly pursues minority-entitlement rhetoric to coalesce "all minorities," despite the fact that many "minority" individuals may get their news on-line or from talk radio rather than Katie Courec.

As to the bulldozer: For now, despite the 2010 hiccup, this politically typecast, media-drugged, polarization-driven voting bloc rules the day - and while their puppetmasters have certainly taken notice, they're not yet shaking in their boots. They are armed to the teeth, shrewd, and relentless. We'll see what happens between now and 2012.

Alternatives? A lumbering, bumbling, and decadent-until-proven-otherwise Republican Party? The entire political establishment is, for the most part, corrupt. A few non-establishment individuals may emerge who offer some hope, but they will not be marketed by a mass media that currently controls elections, and is in turn controlled by international monetary interests bent on securing their own ends. Media control = political and financial power - they know it, they have it and will use it to expand their own financial empires.

Sound far-fetched? Check out, for openers, the names on the governing boards of big international banking and big US media. Go from there to the ivy league, GM, GE (and recent presidential appointments), the names behind big political donations and to whom, etc. The same batch of names keeps cropping up too often in these and other places; the dots are already connected, the fix is virtually in. Check it out - do your own homework.

What is most disturbing in our new political scenario is the entrenched ability of big international monetary powers to vote themselves largesse from the US public treasury. This foreboding reality is something DeToqueville never anticipated.

The antidote? One part is in place, as VDH mentioned, albiet in a fledgling, yet robust and viable state: alternative media. The other, a majority shift to accountable and dynamic non-establishment fresh leadership will have to occur soon, if the culture we know as Western Civilization is to survive. Alternative media may be the linchpin that holds our union together.

Its a long shot, but there is hope. "You shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free." We can start there.

heartman

01/27/11 12:13

We are the Roman Empire circa 250 AD.

 Lawdawg

01/27/11 11:56

I hope the new data on Social Security will build some steam for fundamental reform of our entitlement and pension finances.

A gov't that chronically over promises and under delivers lays a foundation for much larger and indidious problems.

 proreason

01/27/11 11:20

We have two concurrent revolutions, don't we?

The salivating marxists are on the verge of a coup of the American nation, and they are close to pulling it off, thanks to buying off unions and minorities who have enthusiastically bought into the something for nothing marxist meme.

Concurrently, the country class is knocking down the pre-marxist ruling class as vdh itemizes above.

Has such a thing ever happened before? It truly is a clash of multiple cultures, right here in one country. The overwhelming majority of a population waging two concurrent political wars; the first against a corrupt and incompetant entrenched ruling order, and the second against a radically evil new order based on a completely discredited philosophy but which has somehow achieved a position inches away from delivering a death blow to both of its rivals.

Jeremiah

01/27/11 10:58

Right on target. The generation that imagined itself romantically storming the barricades of power is realizing that the barricades are, indeed, being stormed - and the barricades are them. They don't like it.

Anon Jenkins

01/27/11 10:51

So, just so I understand you, your response to inflated tuition and eroding standards, particular in the liberal arts, at America's colleges and universities is... for-profit online learning?

Aren't you the guy that supports the trivium? And even if you're just talking about technical education (a critically neglected part of higher ed.), are the predatory diploma mills like Kaplan really the best place to earn accreditation?

Christopher Landrum

01/27/11 08:50

I agree completely. VDH's only omission was to mention the waning in American communities of various Christian "established orders" (which is NOT the same as saying Christianity is waning in the U.S.--I don't see that quite yet).

But these days incumbent preachers, priests, pastors, bishops and youth group leaders hold little influence, nor command any authoritoral respect outside their specific congregations.

A community's elders cracking whips to coerce its youth to marry and reproduce before living a quarter of a century on the good green earth is a social norm I will not miss.

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