Andy Warhol taught us about 15 minutes of Fame.

Politics has taught us about the similar length of America's memory.

Oh, and our Patience Quotient: "What do we want? I dunno, be we want it NOW!"

I have no worries about 2012 or Obama. I do have some worry about 2010-2011, when things won't improve too much. In this time frame I worry about state level problems a lot, and attacks by coal and oil on our future.

You are right of course and presumably your conclusion has not been unnoticed by Obama or the Dems in general. The confounding part is that neither Obama nor the Dems generally have seemed to have any clue on how to improve the economy or lay the blame on the GOP for frustrating efforts to improve the economy. It does no good to point out that it was the GOP who got us into this mess. While true, Obama and the Dems have had nearly two years to reverse course and while we are no longer heading in the wrong direction, there is precious little evidence that we are moving anywhere any time soon. It also does no good to draw analogies to Reagan's experience. I recognize he is beloved by a certain non reality based part of the population, but he was a horrible person and president. Finally, it would be wonderful to be able to point to a litany of bills designed to aid the economy that the GOP killed, but in fact there are very few. Some bills got watered down and ended up passing, some bills died because Dems would not support them, and some bills were never introduced. It is looking a lot more like Jimmy Carter than Ronald Reagan.

Let's stipulate that no president could have pulled this nation out of this economic tailspin. It's simply too powerful and the underlying pathologies are everywhere in our economy and politics. That said, Obama has been too passive about making sure Americans understand who's really responsible here. We're not going to "recover" to some status quo ante, with consumer spending and housing driving the economy. That's over. Period. We will have to invent a new economy that will require major public investment. Apparently Obama and his economic team didn't know this. They thought they could defribrillate the economy and things would improve on their own. Wrong.

It's this lack of vision that leads to the inadequate and hamfisted messaging. How did The Best and Brightest get is so wrong? Wishful thinking, no doubt, along with conventional wisdom. The post-mortems on this presidency will be concentrated here, not on Bai's too-cerebral speculations.

This really isn't that hard. Obama's popularity is dropping because the Unemployment rate is 9.5% and the country is involved in 2 pointless wars. It's his job to fix this sort of stuff and he hasn't.

I have thought for some time that Obama would have made a great legislator over time, but that his personality simply isn't right for leading like the president has to lead, especially in hard times like these. He doesn't take to his bully pulpit readily or eagerly; his preferred mode of operating seems to be very deliberate, very private, one-on-one behind closed door and in the cloak room where senators get much of their business done - when they are doing business, that is.

He has accomplished a great deal and will continue to mark up achievements, but I don't think he will be a great transformative president.

When Ronald Reagan saw the economy pick up unemployed Americans went back to work. When hiring resumes this time around, how many of those jobs will never be available to American workers? Personally, I'm not sure I'd even simply call this a recession. I'd say its the chickens coming home to roost. "New economy?" This is the new economy.

One of the many problems is Johnnie Mack would have had us in Georgia and Iran by now, and would also have done nothing to fix the economy. So it's coming up turds all over.

He's faltering with me because of the pandering to the hysteria paranoid rightwing (whether it's cashiering Van Jones, Shirely Sherrod, walking back support for Muslim mosque, Gibbs' critique of the "left", support for offshore drilling, the terrible terrible fiascon in Iraq, capitulation for nothing on Single Payer, the list goes on and on. I would prefer he go down swinging not taking called strikes. Where's the big megaphone he weiled during the election process? Gone. I find that very disheartening given the virulent insanity we now find daily. Spend some time watching videos at MMFA to get healthy dose of forces Obama should be relentless debunking, refuting. Beck, Limbaugh have their brainless counterparts in Congress e.g. Spence, King, Gohmert, Vitter, and the whole sad debacle.

1) The economy won't get better (through no fault of Obama and Helicopter Ben). Unemployment will still be around 9% in 2 years.

2) Obama will get re-elected anyway. (Which isn't to say that the conventional "pocketbook predictor" is wrong).

The point is: people are dumb and cranky. Yes, they will express disappointment with Obama, but they also dislike CEOs, Wall Street, Muslims, poor people, rich people, the media, their neighbors, and the car ahead of them in traffic.

Obama's numbers might have fallen, and he might even *lose* against a Generic Republican in a poll, but who are the Republicans going to run? They've got to find someone with some charisma and confidence, and that person doesn't exist.

Unless Republicans can find a famous sports or movie star who is charismatic and likable and smart enough to make sense but not so smart they sound conceited... they ain't gonna win in 2012.

"the president's numbers will rise when the economy does"

...which is exactly why Republicans are pulling out all the stops to prevent the economy from improving.

Well, some of the economy's numbers are rising, GDP for instance. Obama's numbers are tied to unemployment, and employment will not rise in the next six years unless Obama chooses to do something about it. Given Obama's fiscal policy and the fact that the Fed can't lower interest rates below zero our economy is most likely to stagnate and fail to produce enough jobs to meet population growth for the foreseeable future.

I was disappointed when Obama chose to propose a $700B insurance policy instead of a $1.2T stimulus, but I hoped he knew what he was doing and I was optimistic that things would turn around. I was disappointed when the White House removed cram-down as an option for mortgage modifications, and I've since been disappointed that HAMP has been used by the White House to punish homeowners rather than to protect them. But those were Obama's choices, and we are living with the consequences.

But given Obama's choices we should not be surprised that unemployment is high and likely to continue to rise throughout his presidency. And we should not be surprised that as a result Democratic control of the government is endangered.

obama's approval rating? SOUNDS LIKE AN OXYMORON TO ME!

This corporate shill will leave office as one of the most unpopular prez of all time - maybe not beating out chimpy, but possible.

After all, chimpy may have lied to the rest of us, but he did not lie to his super-rich "base".

Obama, on the other hand, lies to us all and essentially flips off the progressive/left that got him elected in the first place.

Excellent series of posts, Steve.
Rather huge, really.
I blame the toxic bias of Fox News and its repetition of lies and deception, coupled with the attempts of MSNBC to appear not to be in the president's pocket, and endlessly piling on, for this dear man's decline in the poll numbers.
However, I feel with Obama's intelligence, fairness and calm, composed manner, he will rebound.
Any thinking person with an interest in current events knows that Richard Engle is in Iraq, on television, excitedly detailing the fact that troops are now--finally--leaving Iraq.... President Obama deserves great praise for ending the horrific Iraq "combat mission" that Bush, Cheney, Rice, and Rumsfield--oilmen,all of them, forcing Operation Iraqi Liberation--OIL--upon the nation, and the manipulator Rove in the background of it all, bankrupting us.
This immoral and wasteful war, so many humans dead and gone, a war with absolutely no meaning, and wish I had not witnessed Saddamm Hussein being beheaded on television. That was awful. The bombing and obliteration of Falujia and aftermath of cancer and illness. The ruination of Iraq, the exile of its citizens to neighboring countries, so many family deaths. I am ashamed of what I witnessed since 2000. The horrendous state of Walter Reed Hospital.
Karl Rove--we don't want to hear from you.
Newt Gingrich as well.

In 2019, it is "the economy stupid"... and Obama and the Senate Dems have been stupid about the economy---- and lots of other issues.

I agree that the dismal economy is dragging down Obama's poll numbers, but I think you underestimate the damage done to Obama by the right wing and its very effective noise machine. Using outright lies and distortions (and a fake grass-roots movement), the GOP has caused support for health insurance reform to plummet, tied the TARP/bailouts to Obama, created panic about the deficit, painted the stimulus as a failure, and pounded Obama as weak on national security. In each instance, the Democratic Party could have mounted an aggressive counterattack but failed to do so, leaving it to the President and his feckless press secretary to push back against the GOP's tidal wave of political sewage. The Democrats are being rope-a-doped by a bunch of dopes, and it's just painful to watch.

I vague remember that campaign season. The Republicans were openly bickering with each other. A couple of times Reagan told the country to hold together, things would get better, and he didn't do a lot of blaming at that moment.

Republicans tend to hate [strike]this[/strike] history, not because it's wrong, but because it's inconsistent with the myth they've worked so hard to sell.

Fixed.

the larger truth is still unavoidable -- the president's numbers will rise when the economy does -- and very easy to understand

Well, as Bai's article shows, that truth is avoidable -- and why not? If the so-called "liberal media" points out that Democratic disapproval is tied to the economy, then the debate becomes how to improve theeconomy, which leads to discussions conservative elites would prefer not to have.

Oh, and on a housekeeping note, can y'all do something about that clumsy spammer?

Obama could start helping himself by leading and by leading from the left. It isn't his nature to do so and its not his preferred politics but it would be a better approach than hoping for a small-business fueled recovery.