Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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August 25, 2010

MULTI-STATE PRIMARIES DEFY MEDIA NARRATIVES.... In political punditry, the desire to identify trends, themes, and patterns is pretty strong. But as the year unfolds, pesky voters keep making the task more difficult.

It's an anti-incumbent year, except for all the incumbents who are doing fine. Tea Party favorites fare well, except where they don't. Candidates with establishment backing are in trouble, except when they keep winning. The candidates with more money excel, except when they're trounced. For every narrative, there are counter-examples that render it largely useless.

And while pundits no doubt find this challenging when telling the public What It All Means, I'd argue it makes for a more interesting election season. Yesterday, for example, offered all kinds of surprises. Let's take the states one at a time.

Florida

Arguably yesterday's marquee match-up was Florida's Republican gubernatorial primary, where polls showed state Attorney General Bill McCollum closing strong. The polls were largely wrong -- disgraced former health care executive Rick Scott won by three points, and will face Florida CFO Alex Sink (D) in November. While Scott's very deep pockets will help Republicans statewide, Dems in the Sunshine State seemed pleased with the outcome. "Florida Republicans nominate for governor a corrupt health care CEO that defrauded taxpayers," said Democratic strategist Mo Elleithee. "Thank you, Tea Party!"

Florida's other big match-up was the Senate Democratic primary, where Rep. Kendrick Meek easily defeated rich guy Jeff Greene, winning by 26 points, despite Greene's aggressive and expensive ad campaign. Meek will take on Gov. Charlie Crist (I) and Marco Rubio (R) in the fall.

Elsewhere in Florida, Blue Dog Rep. Allen Boyd (D) faced a stiff primary challenge from state Senate Minority Leader Al Lawson. Boyd outspent his challenger 10-to-1, but barely eked out a victory, 51% to 49%.

Arizona

The Republican Senate primary was, at one point, expected to be fairly competitive, but Sen. John McCain spent heavily to crush former Rep. J.D. Hayworth, and it paid off -- McCain won by 24 points. (I'd argue the infomercial controversy stopped any momentum Hayworth might have had.) Similarly, Gov. Jan Brewer (R) was, a while back, supposed to face a tough primary challenge, but the state's anti-immigrant law propelled her to Republican stardom, and she cruised to an overwhelming primary victory yesterday.

Elsewhere in Arizona, Ben Quayle managed to win a multi-candidate GOP primary in retiring Rep. John Shadegg's (R) district, despite multiple controversies.

Alaska

In what may prove to be the most important primary yesterday, Sen. Lisa Murkowski, expected to easily win her Republican primary, was actually losing to Tea Partier Joe Miller as of early this morning. With 84% of the state's precincts reporting, Miller led, 52% to 48%. Though it's still too soon to call the race, Dave Weigel had an interesting take on how the upset became possible.

Vermont

In one of the nation's most competitive contests, five viable Democratic gubernatorial candidates faced off yesterday, and with 89% of the precincts reporting, it's still unclear who'll win. State Sen. Peter Shumlin leads with 25.1%, followed very closely by state Sen. Doug Racine with 24.9%. Secretary of State Deb Markowitz is hot on their heels with 23.8%, and former state Sen. Matt Dunne is a competitive fourth with 21%. This one might take a while to sort out.

So, what's the larger lesson from all of these results? I continue to believe the moral of the story is that there is no moral to the story.

Steve Benen 8:00 AM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (19)

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Comments

The biggest shock for me is Scott in Florida, this crook openly pats himself on the back for organizing tea parties to kill the public option, and gives himself credit for using little people to fight against healthcare! This is another case of money buying an election.

Posted by: JS on August 25, 2010 at 8:11 AM | PERMALINK

"what's the larger lesson from all of these results? "

All politics is local.

Posted by: theAmericanist on August 25, 2010 at 8:12 AM | PERMALINK

"it's just a bunch of stuff that happened"
--Bart Simpson

Posted by: John Casey on August 25, 2010 at 8:20 AM | PERMALINK

McCollum is 1 for 4 statewide. He is not the most exciting of candidates. And rich crooks seems to be what the GOP base wants.

Posted by: anon on August 25, 2010 at 8:21 AM | PERMALINK

Should Sink and Brown take the FL and CA gubernatorial races, that would be a pretty bright spot in an otherwise bleak picture.
~

Posted by: ifthethunderdontgetya™³²®© on August 25, 2010 at 8:22 AM | PERMALINK

An "interesting take" is one way to put it. After following the link to Weigal's story at Slate, I found another link there to his story FROM YESTERDAY explaining how Miller was going to lose (and implied it wouldn't be close) in part because Sarah Palin wasn't very popular in Alaska these days.

Now, I don't like Sarah Palin and am not surprised that her negatives in Alaska are up to 52%, and it is even possible that Murkowski will end up winning by a big margin despite the early numbers, but those two blog posts on consecutive days make Weigal look like a fool.

Posted by: tanstaafl on August 25, 2010 at 8:23 AM | PERMALINK

"what's the larger lesson from all of these results? "

All politics is local.

Posted by: theAmericanist on August 25, 2010 at 8:12 AM

That was my first thought except that then there are some races where unappealing and/or scandal-plagued candidates seem to be riding a national wave to victory.

I think the moral is that there is a lot of undirected anger out there. People know they are unhappy, but they don't know who is to blame, so the results are bound to be messy.

Posted by: tanstaafl on August 25, 2010 at 8:30 AM | PERMALINK

The kind of results you get with an uninformed electorate at least partially willing to get fooled by money or looks - and completely left alone by irresponsible media. Add to this politicians willing to crush the nation's backbone in order to win an election, and you begin to see the linear structure of the picture.

The system is broken. It's a farce. Elections like these deliver just as much democratic mandate as an election in the GDR ca. 1972.

Posted by: Vokoban on August 25, 2010 at 8:40 AM | PERMALINK

I hope Meek can win in Florida, hopefully Crist will not make things harder, but he could split the repub vote which would help Meek.
Did anyone else see the video clip on DU of Reagan
dedicating the Space shuttle Columbia to the Taliban?
Just a little distraction this am.

Posted by: JS on August 25, 2010 at 8:41 AM | PERMALINK

Murkowski is described today on NPR as a Republican "moderate". i.e. a petrowhore, climate-change denier who wants to kill any carbon dioxide oversight, is "moderate" in today's GOP.

Posted by: bob h on August 25, 2010 at 8:44 AM | PERMALINK

Murkowski also had a little unpleasantness with a sweetheart real estate deal that her youthful good looks were not enough distraction to permit the story , in some circles , to become a paean to her martyred innocence .

This from TPM
Murkowski had purchased a piece of property along the Kenai river from Bob Penney, a politically-prominent local developer connected to the Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) investigation, for about $120,000 under market-value. Murkowski failed to disclose the purchase, and later claimed it was for "personal use," though this still did not make it exempt from disclosure. She later amended her disclosure forms to reflect the sale and finally reversed the sale, selling the property back to Penney for the purchase price.


Posted by: FRP on August 25, 2010 at 8:59 AM | PERMALINK

Over the years, every blog said over and over that Alaska was impossible to poll, given its size, diverse terrain and diverse populace. So no one can predict an election there.

There also was an anti-abortion ballot initiative, about parent notification, which apparently drew more conservatives. This is what conservatives are going to do more of -- put nonsense on the ballot, and their candidates do better.

Re "anti-incumbency": The always-excellent Rachel Maddow had a list of incumbents vs. challengers on her show Monday night. So far, seven incumbents have gone down in primary challenges. More than 340 incumbents go on to November.

Let's face it -- the Washington media are just lazy.

My cousins in Alaska tell me that $arah Palin's popularity has dwindled quite a bit.

Posted by: Molly Weasley on August 25, 2010 at 10:41 AM | PERMALINK

Can I venture a unified theory somewhat different from what pundits are pushing?

On the Dem side, incumbents and establishment candidates are mostly winning. Their primary defeats include two corruption cases (Mollohan and Kirkpatrick Cheeks) -- a burden in any re-election -- and a party switcher in Specter. Lincoln and Bennet triumphed despite vigorous challenges.

On the GOP side, Bennett (R.), Inglis, now Murkowski are gone, and establishment choices in numerous primaries (McCollum the latest, but also Grayson and the chicken lady) have been defeated by unknowns further off the grid than many of us ever expected to see nominated for major political office.

In that context, McCain's "triumph" may have had something to do with Hayworth's estabishment ties (a Congressman up till 4 years ago), and his corruption taint. A tea-partying cipher -- an AZ Angle -- might have given Ye Olde Maverick a far tougher race.

We can't say till November whether this will result in the GOP throwing away winnable races, or a Congress even more nihilistic than the current class. For right now, however, there is a pronounced anti-incumbent/anti-establishment strain -- but it's strictly on the red side of the aisle.

Posted by: demtom on August 25, 2010 at 11:22 AM | PERMALINK

o/t It's interesting that Wiegel is writing for Slate which is a wapo publication.

Posted by: CDW on August 25, 2010 at 11:39 AM | PERMALINK

For right now, however, there is a pronounced anti-incumbent/anti-establishment strain -- but it's strictly on the red side of the aisle.

Considering the dopes they have in there now, who can blame them?

Posted by: Vicente Fox on August 25, 2010 at 11:48 AM | PERMALINK

for you pollster watchers...on monday, steve posted this: Mason-Dixon shows Rep. Kendrick Meek out in front of Jeff Greeene by 12 points (42% to 30%); Quinnipiac shows Meek up by 10 points (39% to 29%); while Public Policy Polling shows Meek ahead by 24 points (51% to 27%).

actual result:
Meek easily defeated Greene by 26 points

Posted by: dj spellchecka on August 25, 2010 at 11:58 AM | PERMALINK

Forget all that noise. The only thing that can be taken away from this years election results so far is that the R's are gonna win big in November.

Just based on turnout alone it's hard to see any other scenario.

Posted by: dualdiagnosis on August 25, 2010 at 12:35 PM | PERMALINK

Unless you are a fully realised nitwit , in which case I will have to say , oh how unlucky . Otherwise I easily see it quite differently .

Posted by: FRP on August 25, 2010 at 6:18 PM | PERMALINK

Kudos to Rachel Maddow for asking, "What anti-incumbent fever?"

Incumbent appeal must counter the "anti" incumbent propaganda.

Incumbent appeal must gain wider news, and household word appeal!

Posted by: Michael Ross on August 25, 2010 at 7:24 PM | PERMALINK
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