Unrest Rattles U.S. Approach in Region

By JAY SOLOMON

DAMASCUS, Syria—Egypt's political turmoil risks setting off shifts that undermine broad American foreign-policy goals—and, say some U.S. and Arab strategists, could put Washington in its weakest position in the region in half a century.

View Full Image

Peter Van Agtmael/ Magnum Photos for The Wall Street Journal

Egyptians attempted to guard Cairo's Tahrir Square against the army on Sunday. The outcome of Egypt's uprising promises to hold long-term consequences for U.S. policy in the region.

The threats to American interests come on several fronts. The potential departure of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, who heads the most important Arab nation to have made peace with Israel, would likely put the broader Arab-Israeli peace process in new peril.

Meanwhile, other American allies in the Middle East stand to be weakened by political unrest of their own. Current and former U.S. officials specifically cite Jordan, the Persian Gulf emirates and Saudi Arabia as vulnerable to political agitation.

Should such allies use repressive tactics in dealing with their own internal opponents, they would place themselves at odds with an Obama administration that has openly called for tolerance of political dissent. Such allies also could pull away from the U.S., reasoning that President Mubarak's close ties to Washington are a principal reason he is so unpopular on Cairo's streets now.

Photos: Sunday Protests

View Slideshow

Reuters

Regional Upheaval

View Interactive

And ultimately, any weakening or estrangement of American allies puts a chink in the united front the U.S. hopes to maintain to resist al Qaeda and Iran in the region.

"Democratic change in Egypt is important. But in terms of realpolitik, it's hard to imagine that [a new] Egyptian government...would continue to pursue the traditionally close working relationship with Washington," said David Schenker, a former Pentagon official now at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "With Egypt, a big story is the redrawing of U.S. security architecture in the region."

Of course, a successful and peaceful transition in Cairo to a more democratic, and politically moderate, system in coming months could offset such downside risks, and ultimately provide Washington with a more stable and sustainable ally, said senior U.S. officials. Egypt, as the Arab world's most populous country, often serves as a bellwether for broader shifts in the Mideast, they said.

"We want to see free and fair elections, and we expect that that will be one of the outcomes of what is going on in Egypt right now," Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told NBC's "Meet the Press" on Sunday.

Still, the emergence of even a moderate new Cairo government, one that could include Nobel laureate Mohamed ElBaradei, could significantly alter Egyptian foreign policy away from Mr. Mubarak's staunchly pro-American line.

Mr. ElBaradei regularly challenged U.S. foreign policy as the head of the United Nations' nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency. A new government is likely to include at least some representation of the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist organization committed to ending Egypt's peace agreement with Israel, said Egyptian analysts.

In a worst case, some U.S. strategists fear any overthrow of Mr. Mubarak could produce parallels to the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran, when the ouster of the U.S.-backed shah set off ripples that have bedeviled Washington's policies in the Middle East for three decades.

Already this year, the U.S. has seen a dramatic reversal in the fortunes of its Arab allies.

View Full Image

This month, the Lebanese militia and political party, Hezbollah, overthrew Beirut's pro-Western Prime Minister Saad Hariri. The Mediterranean country has been a key battleground for the U.S. to contest the regional role of Iran and Syria, who support Hezbollah with both arms and financing.

Tunisia, Algeria and Yemen have also been close U.S. allies in the fight against al Qaeda and are experiencing continued political unrest.

Even Turkey, Washington's closest non-Arab ally in the Middle East outside Israel, has increasingly pursued a foreign policy independent of Washington's. Ankara alienated Washington last year by voting against imposing new sanctions on Iran through the U.N. Security Council. Turkey has also sought closer relations with Syria and has publicly sparred with Israel over its policies in the Palestinian territories.

A key battleground in the coming months to gauge the shifts in the Middle East is likely to be Jordan, said current and former U.S. officials. But there are differing views over how Washington should respond.

Amman is the only other Arab state, outside Egypt, to have formally signed a peace agreement with Israel. Jordan has also been among Washington's closest allies in fighting al Qaeda and other militant Islamist groups. Still, protests have emerged against King Abdullah II's rule, as some Jordanians clamor for a more representative political system.

Several former U.S. officials said Washington needs to side more formally with Egypt's protesters and push Jordan, Yemen and other U.S. allies to more aggressively embrace democratic reforms. Failing to do so, they said, will expose the U.S. to more charges of double standards and possibly aid the efforts of U.S. adversaries regionally.

"We need to understand that an open society and free speech and press...really are the best weapons against al Qaeda and extremism," said Elliott Abrams, who oversaw Middle East policy in George W. Bush's White House.

Still, others fear that moves for brisk shifts in the policies of U.S. allies could prove even more destabilizing because they might allow extremist groups or Iran to exploit the situation to their advantage.

Write to Jay Solomon at jay.solomon@wsj.com