Monday, February 7, 2011

Pirate Radio: The Cyber Edition

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by Zoe Pollock

Spencer Ackerman reports on how the US could have deployed mobile connectivity in Egypt:

When Hosni Mubarak shut down Egypt’s internet and cellphone communications, it seemed that all U.S. officials could do was ask him politely to change his mind. But the American military does have a second set of options, if it ever wants to force connectivity on a country against its ruler’s wishes.

There’s just one wrinkle. “It could be considered an act of war,” says John Arquilla, a leading military futurist.

The U.S. military has no shortage of devices — many of them classified — that could restore connectivity to a restive populace cut off from the outside world by its rulers.

(Photo: Egyptians take pictures with their cellphones of a burning police station set ablaze by rioters near the Sultan Hassan al-Rifai mosque in central Cairo on January 28, 2011. By Marco Longari/AFP/Getty Images.)

Matrimonial Loss Aversion

by Patrick Appel

Paula Szuchman's applies economic theories to marriage:

The concept that’s had the most profound impact is loss aversion. Behavioral economists have shown that we hate to lose twice as much as we love to win, and when we sense we’re losing, we get irrational. Loss aversion has been partly blamed for Lehman Brothers’ failure to admit its losses early enough to save the company.

I’m vehemently averse to losing. But now I try to be aware of when I cross into loss-aversion mode during disagreements. Then I call a time-out.

And this interview with behavioral economist Colin Camerer is worth a read. The interviewer asks if there is any free riding in his household. The answer:

No. Here’s why: I am one of the world’s leading experts on psychology, the brain and strategic game theory. But my wife is a woman. So it’s a tie.

School Building: A Part Of War Fighting

by Zoe Pollock

James Gibney reviews Armed Humanitarians, by Nathan Hodge and the future of foreign aid funneled through the military:

The enduring legacy of our experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan may well be better, but not more, armed humanitarianism, as when the Pentagon swiftly mobilized aid after Haiti’s earthquake last year and then withdrew once the immediate crisis eased, leaving the Haitians to make their own choices. As Hodge takes pains to show, in nation-building, less is often more.

The Power Of Bread

by Patrick Appel

Frum wants America to resume food aid to Egypt:

The outcome of the power struggle in Egypt remains uncertain. But the outcome of the economic struggle is easy to foresee: whoever emerges with power – including Mubarak himself should he survive – will want to resume food subsidies to allay public discontent. Yet Egypt’s economy will be in even worse shape post-protests than before.  No democracy in Egypt can survive without an early improvement in the bread situation. So how to pay? International help seems the obvious answer. Yes, reform will be needed in time. Bread is needed now. Which leads back to the first question for those Americans who urge democracy upon a food-short Egypt: How much would you be willing to see America contribute?

It’s no good wishing for a new form of government if you then deny that government the means of survival.

Laughing Off The Propaganda

by Chris Bodenner

Robert Mackey notes an amusing trend in Tahrir Square:

As Mosa'ab Elshamy, an Egyptian blogger and activist in the square, explained on Friday, perhaps the most bizarre allegation is that the protesters are only staying for free fried chicken. "Pro-mubarak media said we're only staying at Tahrir because foreign powers are giving us KFC meals," he reported on Twitter. Mona Eltahawy, an Egyptian journalist posted a link on her @monaeltahawy Twitter feed to this satirical video – uploaded to YouTube over the weekend with English subtitles – in which protesters eating in the square pretend that their food is all supplied by KFC (and that foreign powers pay them 100 euros a day).

The Politics Of Anger

by Patrick Appel

As the Arab world democratizes, Beinart advises Israel to adapt: 

For a long time, countries like Turkey and Egypt were ruled by men more interested in pleasing the United States than their own people, and as a result, they shielded Israel from their people’s anger. Now more of that anger will find its way into the corridors of power. The Israeli and American Jewish right will see this as further evidence that all the world hates Jews, and that Israel has no choice but to turn further in on itself. But that would be a terrible mistake.

The Right To Disparage My Political Views

by Conor Friedersdorf

I'm surprised to see that Claremont McKenna College has run afoul of FIRE, the non-profit that advocates for free speech on American campuses.

"Having Sex: The Wildly Profitable Bad Decision"

by Zoe Pollock

Jack Stuef suggests titles for the memoir that Bristol Palin is apparently writing.

Will Los Angeles Support Long Form?

by Conor Friedersdorf

After an extremely successful debut, the new Los Angeles literary quarterly, Slake – previously mentioned here – has made it to issue number two. A brief excerpt from a piece about the city's Little Tokyo:

The trapezoid of land still stands in 2011, but it is of course filled with development, condominiums, and fabricated lofts spread like STDs—ugly but real and unavoidable—and a new public railway line. I do not know if the area has a name, if it had a name before the transition, but a decade ago I called it the Golden Trapezoid.

A Tunisian Tsunami? Ctd

by Chris Bodenner

Ammar Abdulhamid doesn't see a surge in Syria:

A "day of rage" called for by Syrian opposition members living abroad and scheduled for last Friday and Saturday came and went: the only mass presence detected on the streets of major cities in Syria was that of security forces. ...

Syria is definitely not Tunisia or Egypt.

Face Of The Day

by Chris Bodenner

A moment of levity amidst the violence:

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More makeshift helmets here.

Scientology, Fact Checked

by Zoe Pollock

Lawrence Wright has a pretty damning report on Scientology, using Paul Haggis' departure (citing anti-gay sentiment in the Church) as a jumping off point:

But hadn’t certain derogatory references to homosexuality found in some editions of [Scientology founder L. Ron] Hubbard’s books been changed after his death?

[Scientology spokesman Tommy] Davis admitted that that was so, but he maintained that “the current editions are one-hundred-per-cent, absolutely fully verified as being according to what Mr. Hubbard wrote.” Davis said they were checked against Hubbard’s original dictation.

“The extent to which the references to homosexuality have changed are because of mistaken dictation?” I asked.

“No, because of the insertion, I guess, of somebody who was a bigot,” Davis replied.

Another Calm Day In Cairo

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by Chris Bodenner

As the uprising enters its third week, Al-Masry Al-Youm reports:

State administrative employee salaries and military and civilian pensions will be increased by 15 percent beginning in April, said the Egyptian government on Monday. Egyptian Finance Minister Samir Radwan told reporters that, for the first time ever, increases in pensions will be based on their total values.

WSJ:

Google Inc. executive Wael Ghonim has been released from government custody in Egypt after going missing during massive protests Jan. 28, the U.S. State Department said Monday. ... Mr. Ghonim, Google’s marketing manager for the region and a father of two, has helped run social-networking sites critical of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s government and became a rallying symbol for the demonstrators demanding the resignation of the long-time president.

EA:

2030 GMT:  Human Rights Watch now says that at least 297 people have been killed since protests began in Egypt. Of those, at least 52 have been confirmed to have been killed in Alexandria.

What Shutting Down The Internet Costs

by Patrick Appel

Parmy Olson totals Egypt's bill. She looks beyond the immediate economic impact:

Foreign companies will hardly be falling over themselves to invest in a telecommunications infrastructure that could be shut down at a moment’s notice. Vodafone, for one, is already getting flak for caving into pressure to send pro-government text messages during the last few days of mass demonstrations against President Hosni Mubarak.

Mental Health Break

by Chris Bodenner

Giant spider attacks! Packers win!

David Koch And George Soros

by Conor Friedersdorf

Together at last.

What Israel Fears, Ctd

by Chris Bodenner

Reuel Marc Gerecht sharpens the view that the Muslim Brotherhood is not a grave threat:

The Brotherhood will undoubtedly be one of the big players, but it will have to compete for votes. And, as the Brotherhood’s aborted platform clearly reveals, the organization is going to have to do better than chanting, “Islam has all the answers,” the easy retort of men who know they don’t have to compete for power.

What we are likely to see in Egypt is not a repeat of Iran, where fundamentalists took undisputed power, but a repeat of Iraq, where Sunni religious parties did well initially but started to fade, divide and evolve as the powerful Sunni preference for laymen of no particular religious distinction comes to the foreground. Sunni Islam has no clerical hierarchy of the holy — it’s tailor-made for nasty arguments among men who dispute one another’s authority to know the righteous path. If the Brotherhood can be corralled by a democratic system, the global effect may not be insignificant.

Government Of The Lawyers, By The Lawyers, For The Lawyers

by Conor Friedersdorf

In years past, University of Tenessee law professor Glenn Reynolds believed that American entrepreneurs facing an excessively complex regulatory landscape had legislators to blame – that there were too many laws, not too many lawyers.

But now my University of Tennessee colleague Ben Barton is making me think again. He's got a new book out from Cambridge University Press, "The Lawyer-Judge Bias in the American Legal System," and his thesis is that lawyers are not only a symptom of overly complex laws, but also their cause.

In particular, he notes that in America, pretty much all judges (except for a few justices of the Peace and such) are lawyers. And, after examining the work of judges in a number of different areas, he concludes that judges systematically rule in ways that favor lawyers, and that make the legal system more complex. (And legislators, mostly lawyers themselves, aren't much better).

It's a thorny problem. Filling the judiciary with non-lawyers would likely politicize the system, or at minimum introduce a lot of unpredictability. As Steve puts it in comments at The Volokh Conspiracy:

A Tunisian Tsunami? Ctd

by Chris Bodenner

Another ripple, this time in Bahrain:

The Bahrain Center for Human Rights accused the government of blocking access to a Facebook group calling for protests inspired by uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia. The center's own website has been blocked for years, it said. Several prominent bloggers have also been arrested. Opposition activists in the small Persian Gulf island nation have been calling for a “day of rage” Feb. 14 against the ruling royal family. Bahraini authorities have taken economic measures to try to stave off the mounting anger, raising food subsidies.

Palin, Inc. Ctd

by Chris Bodenner

A reader writes:

For what it is worth, the application was signed by the attorney handling the application. So it's not so much Palin “forgetting to sign” but rather her attorney Thomas Van Flein not knowing the requirements for registration.

An attorney writes:

The truly pathetic thing about her unsigned trademark application is that it can be filed and signed electronically. It takes all of two minutes for a slow reader. Your trademark attorney fills out the form, send the filing notice to you, and you sign electronically by typing in your name in the space provided. On the bright side, this is typical of her failure to pay any attention to detail or choose intelligent/competent advisors.

Advertisement

How To Look Smart, Ctd

Science v 237 July

by Patrick Appel

A reader writes:

Wikipedia and the other studies cited by yourself and readers note correlations between IQ and myopia, and general intelligence, and guess at some causes, but there is a known causal link, between excessive eye length (myopia), and IQ and education. The intervening variable is reading, and how it intersects with the mechanisms of how the eye uses its own activity in early development to regulate its optics.

Drafting Jeb

by Conor Friedersdorf

Rich Lowry wants him to run. I wonder if this is the beginning of a movement movement.

News Feeding

by Zoe Pollock

John Hudson interviewed Gawker Media owner Nick Denton on his news habits:

I consume most of my news in email and (more recently) Facebook. I think Zuckerberg has created the personalized news engine we always dreamed of. ...

To follow the daily or hourly news cycle is the media equivalent of day-trading: it’s frenzied, pointless and usually unprofitable. I’d much rather read an item which just showed me the photos or documents. And if you’re going to write some text, take a position or explain something to me. Give me opinion or reference; just don’t pretend you’re providing news. That’s not news.

Felix Salmon agrees on the latter part:

The "Manufactured Safety" Of Egypt's Army

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by Patrick Appel

Daniel Williams of Human Rights Watch was detained by the Egyptian government for a day and a half. An important paragraph:

[I]n this and other cases, now being documented by Human Rights Watch, the army was clearly in charge of arbitrary and sometimes violent arrests, even if the beatings and torture had been “outsourced” to other agencies or thugs.

I've been trying to get a handle on the role of Egypt's military. Joshua Stacher's analysis

Headline For The Day

by Zoe Pollock

"Brooklyn's Evermore Pet Food creators will eat dog food for a month to prove product's quality." Money quote:

"We eat it all the time," said Wiener, a personal chef. "The beef liver has a stronger taste to it. We prefer the chicken."

Dave Barry editorializes:

Well, it will prove something.

Tourists In Tahrir

TAHRIR SQUARE WEDDING

by Chris Bodenner

Scott Lucas relays a concern:

Another day of chanting, worship, and celebration in the Protest City of Tahrir Square on Sunday, including a Christian prayer service, a wedding, and a concert. With the immediate threat of attack from the police or the pro-Mubarak "thugs" removed, the Square and its tents are taking on the appearance of long-term presence. Some, however, are wondering if that will lead to the changes desired by the protesters: one activists commented that Tahrir Square would soon be "the place that tourists visit before going to the Pyramids and Luxor".

The Malcolm Gladwell Book Generator

by Patrick Appel

Single-serving blog of the day.

Why Bloggers Avoid Writing About Israel

by Conor Friedersdorf

When I blog here at The Daily Dish, I get a couple dozen emails a day from readers directing me to potential fodder. That's how I came across this post by Philip Giraldi, linked here on 31 January 2011 – as you can see, it's a relatively short post where Mr. Giraldi asserts three things: a) that Rand Paul's call to eliminate all foreign aid, including aid to Israel, was getting insufficient press attention considering how unusual it is for a US Senator to say such a thing; b) that Israel is wealthy enough that it doesn't need our aid; c) and that although Rand Paul has been attacked by the Israel lobby for his statement, President Obama's review of aid to Egypt would be a good time to examine all our foreign aid to that region.

I excerpted the assertions to that affect, and added only this by way of my own commentary: "It would be a good time to re-examine aid flowing to every region, which isn't to say that I want to eliminate all of it."

That's actually blogger code for this more involved thought process: I'd tentatively love to stop giving aid to Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Colombia – especially stuff that flows through the DEA – but I actually don't know all that much even about the specific US aid recipients that make me uncomfortable, nor do I really know a lot about Israel's economy or aid to Israel, nor do I have particularly strong feelings about any of it, or a desire to read up on the subject for several hours. So rather than offer some half-cocked opinion about any of these countries, I'll excerpt this post that seems kinda interesting, especially about Rand Paul bringing a new voice to the Senate. And then I'll express my vague desire to look at these things more closely, which really is all I'm comfortable saying I think with confidence. Maybe I'll even get some interesting e-mail back that helps me better flesh out my thoughts.

This shows why it's good for the reader that bloggers aren't forced to make all their thinking explicit. What tedium would ensue! But it was necessary in this post due to the curious way Pejman Yousefzadeh has responded to my earlier, unremarkable item. It seems that the author I quoted, Mr. Giraldi, wrote a controversial letter to the University of Chicago alumni magazine back in 1999, when I was nineteen.

After quoting the letter, Yousefzadeh says this:

Given Giraldi’s plain and simple derangement, and the derangement that he excites in others, the question arises: Why did Conor Friedersdorf deem it necessary to throw Giraldi a favorable link, and to cite him as some kind of potential authority on the issue of foreign aid? Oh, to be sure, Friedersdorf cites Giraldi on foreign aid while at the same time assuring us that his decision to link to Giraldi’s post “isn’t to say that I want to eliminate all” foreign aid. But why is Giraldi allowed anywhere near the realm of polite conversation when it comes to this, or any other issue, given his insane views? Why is he given any semblance of respectability by a magazine like the Atlantic, which continues to maintain some respectability despite the determined efforts of the people associated with the Daily Dish to annihilate that respectability beyond salvaging?

He titles this post, "Philip Giraldi, Conor Friedersdorf, Andrew Sullivan, Anti-Semitism, and the Further Decline of the Atlantic."

As it happens, I disagree rather strongly with some of what Mr. Giraldi wrote 11 years ago in that letter to the editor. But that is beside the point. I've taken the time to lay all this out because I think what Mr. Yousefzadeh is doing here is just vile, and that he should be ashamed of himself. Unless he is a very stupid man, he knows full well that no blogger in the world, having found a short blog post to excerpt, goes searching through the archives of alumni magazines at institutions they didn't attend, just in case the person they're about to link maybe wrote something wrongheaded in the letters section over a decade prior.

The View From Your Window

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Mianyang, China, 3 pm

A Life Sentence At Gitmo

by Conor Friedersdorf

Glenn Greenwald reviews the case:

A 48-year-old Afghan citizen and Guantanamo detainee, Awal Gul, died on Tuesday of an apparent heart attack.  Gul, a father of 18 children, had been kept in a cage by the U.S. for more than 9 years -- since late 2001 when he was abducted in Afghanistan -- without ever having been charged with a crime.  While the U.S. claims he was a Taliban commander, Gul has long insisted that he quit the Taliban a year before the 9/11 attack because, as his lawyer put it, "he was disgusted by the Taliban's growing penchant for corruption and abuse."  His death means those conflicting claims will never be resolved; said his lawyer: "it is shame that the government will finally fly him home not in handcuffs and a hood, but in a casket."  This episode illustrates that the U.S. Government's detention policy -- still -- amounts to imposing life sentences on people without bothering to prove they did anything wrong.    

Promises In Transition

by Patrick Appel

The Muslim Brotherhood has vowed that it won't field a candidate for the Egyptian presidency should Mubarak step down. Which makes Joshua Tucker ask:

[S]uch a "guarantee" raises a larger question: how does anyone actually hold opposition forces to promises made during a transition period? And this is especially crucial if we think that in order for someone like Mubarak to give up power, he has to be convinced that the opposition will honor promises it makes during negotiation to remove him from office (such as, for example, not to throw him in jail.) There is a large literature stemming from Latin American transitions on the importance of what came to be known as "pacts", or deals between the regime and the opposition during an actual transition. However, it remains an open question how exactly these "pacts" can be enforced at a later date.

Physical Health Break Update, Ctd

by Chris Bodenner

A reader writes to Andrew, who is still out sick:

I play a wind instrument, the oboe, and so I have spent years of my life wrestling with the challenge of manifesting one's breath to full potential. I recently learned that in our foundational tongues of Latin, Greek, and Hebrew the words for breath and spirit are one and the same: spiritus, pneuma, and ruach. Our breath embodies our spirit; compromised breath has profound consequences. Maybe you already knew this, but I wanted to send these thoughts your way in any event. Get well soon.

The Uprising Slows

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by Patrick Appel

Graeme Wood's latest Cairo dispatch focuses on fissures in the opposition and the state of Tahrir square:

The situation among Egypt's protesters now shifts not by the minute or hour but by the day. With this new metabolism, the protest movement is having to deal with threats more subtle than flying bricks. Dissent and subversion are major preoccupations: There are signs of jitters, even paranoia. Foreigners now have to prove their identity as members of the press, and protesters identifying themselves as members of the movement's "security" team approach in the square to demand a reporter's identity documents. Until recently, this happened only on the outside.

And:

The men at the barricades have not had to repel a serious attack since Thursday night.

A Lack Of Confidence

by Conor Friedersdorf

James Joyner is exactly right:

I’ve long since tired of the notion that the only possible motivation that conservatives could possibly have for calling out the lunatic fringe within their movement is a desire to be loved by liberals and get invited to their cocktail parties. Going back at least to William F. Buckley, Jr.’s famous article casting the John Birch Society out of the legitimate conservative moment, it has been understood that letting the fringe define the cause hurts it. Buckley correctly reasoned that Birch founder Robert Welch’s crazy and outrageous conspiracy theories were tainting the legitimate anti-Communist movement.

Similarly, the psychotic rantings of Glenn Beck invite ridicule on the rest of us. Legitimate points are inevitably countered by comparisons with absurd variants by Beck, Coulter, Limbaugh, and others who make a living stoking the fears of the base. This is, at best, a distraction from the debate and, often, makes intelligent discussion of the issues next to impossible because they’ve been preemptively framed by the loudest, most shrill, most hyperbolic voices.

Robert Stacy McCain responds:

If we had listened to that argument in 2009, there never would have been a Tea Party movement. Republicans would have rolled over and played dead and gone along with the whole Obama/Pelosi/Reid agenda because it was not respectable to oppose Keynesian “stimulus” spending, cap-and-trade, nationalized health care, and so forth.

Now that “the loudest, most shrill, most hyperbolic voices” have succeeded in fomenting grassroots opposition, however, we are told that elected representatives must ignore the people who elected them and, instead, must heed those respectable voices who did nothing at all to help encourage the Tea Party movement.

It's sad indeed that conservatives like RSM doubt the ability of the right to compete in American politics without the Limbaughs, Becks, and Levins of the world. The way they talk you'd think conservatism never won a victory prior to the rise of talk radio, and that conservative and libertarian ideas are so weak that Americans will only go along with them if tricked by the most talented propagandists available. Where is their confidence? And what of their discernment? What's actually gone on in the United States since the year 2000? For almost eight years, the Bush Administration managed to keep the support of its base, despite pursuing all manner of idiotic policies. And they did so in large part by relying on sycophantic propagandists. Rush Limbaugh himself admitted to carrying water for Republicans during that era despite thinking they were taking the country in the wrong direction. And many pundits, especially on Fox News, behaved even worse. The way RSM talks, you'd think it was RINOs who were responsible for the idiocy of that administration. Was Tom Delay a RINO? How about Dick Cheney? Denny Hastert? The problem wasn't that DC turned people moderate – it turned them corrupt.

Super Bowl Recap

by Chris Bodenner

Of the best commercials, of course.

Egypt's Class War

by Patrick Appel

Salwa Ismail explains it:

Mubarak and the clique surrounding him have long treated Egypt as their fiefdom and its resources as spoils to be divided among them.

Under sweeping privatisation policies, they appropriated profitable public enterprises and vast areas of state-owned lands. A small group of businessmen seized public assets and acquired monopoly positions in strategic commodity markets such as iron and steel, cement and wood. While crony capitalism flourished, local industries that were once the backbone of the economy were left to decline. At the same time, private sector industries making environmentally hazardous products like ceramics, marble and fertilisers have expanded without effective regulation at a great cost to the health of the population.

Reagan At 100

by Conor Friedersdorf

Libertarian David Boaz is among the many writers reflecting on Ronald Reagan:

When we’re feeling positive, we remember that he used to say, “Libertarianism is the heart and soul of conservatism.” Other times, we call to mind his military interventionism, his encouragement of the then-new religious right (“I know you can’t endorse me, but I endorse you.”), and his failure to really reduce the size of government. But the more experience we have with later presidents, the better Reagan looks in retrospect.

He adds this apt criticism:

The Cannabis Closet: Family Feud Edition

by Chris Bodenner

How To Get Someone With Friends In Egypt To Lose His Temper, Ctd

by Conor Friedersdorf

When Peter Schweitzer said he didn't have any sympathy for journalists being attacked in Egypt I reacted angrily. Little did I know that other pundits would discredit themselves with statements even more vile.

Rush Limbaugh is one of them:

It is being breathlessly reported that the Egyptian army is rounding up foreign journalists. I mean even two New York Times reporters were detained. Now this is supposed to make us feel what exactly? Are we supposed to feel outrage? I don’t feel any outrage over it. Are we supposed to feel anger? I don’t feel any anger over this. Do we feel happy? Well – do we feel kinda going like nyah nyah nyah! [Only later when Fox News reporters were beatendid he point out he was only kidding.]

When he says stuff like this, I wonder what his partners in the conservative movement think. After all, National Review describes as "a friend and benefactor," he has a partnership with The Heritage Foundation, Human Events named him Man of the Year in 2007, he once received The Claremont Institute's Statesmanship Award, he's invited to give speeches at places like Hillsdale College, and he was celebrated last year at CPAC.

Under normal circumstances, the leaders of these organizations look down on people like Rush Limbaugh – people who mock American reporters when they're targeted by authoritarian thugs, people who regularly make frivolous accusations of racism, people who deliberately excacerbate the racial anxieties of Americans, people who mean-spiritedly mock the language of foreign visitors, people who used the Tuscon shooting to attack ideological adversaries, people who joke about speaking "a little Negro dialect," people who try to score points by mocking a man for having Parkinsons... this list could easily go on for paragraphs. But Rush Limbaugh has a large audience. Very high ratings indeed! So the wrongheadedness of his rhetoric doesn't matter. It's like in professional sports where an athlete performs exceptionally well and all else is forgiven. The conservative movement and its institutions are the fawning fanboys. Their moral compass goes haywire whenever the talk radio host comes up. If you asked, they'd tell you very earnestly that the ends don't justify the means, as a general proposition. But celebrating Rush Limbaugh? How quickly they abandon that philosophy.

Anyway, the account of the New York Times reporters that Limbaugh mocked is here.

Palin's Foreign Policy Courtesy Of Mad Libs

by Patrick Appel

Doug Mataconis attempts to decipher Palin's thoughts on Egypt:

I’ve read through this incomprehensible word salad three times and I still can’t figure out for the life of me what Palin is trying to say here. As with most of her comments on substantive issues, it seems like she’s just throwing talking points together in some kind of stream-of-consciousness chant, hoping that it will make sense when it all comes together.

But it doesn’t.

Grains: The Most Important Market

Badharvest

by Patrick Appel

Krugman cries out that "grain production is down — and it’s down substantially more when you take account of a growing world population":

You might ask why a production shortfall of 5 percent leads to a doubling of prices. Part of the answer is that some kinds of demand are growing faster than population — in particular, China is becoming a growing importer of feed to meet the demand for meat. But the main point is that the demand for grain is highly price-inelastic: it takes big price rises to induce people to consume less, yet collectively that’s what they must do given the shortfall in production.

Why is production down? Most of the decline in world wheat production, and about half of the total decline in grain production, has taken place in the former Soviet Union — mainly Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan. And we know what that’s about: an incredible, unprecedented heat wave

Off Balance

by Patrick Appel

Julian Sanchez considers "how the analogy between sound judgment and balancing weights may constrain our thinking in unhealthy ways":

Perhaps the most obvious problem with balancing metaphors is that they suggest a relationship that is always, by necessity, zero sum: If one side rises, the other must fall in exact proportion. Also implicit in balancing talk is the idea that equilibrium is the ideal, and anything that upsets that balance is a change for the worse. That’s probably true if you’re walking a tightrope, but it clearly doesn’t hold in other cases. If you have a perfectly balanced investment portfolio and somebody gives you some shares of stock, the balance is upset (until you can shift some assets around), but you’re plainly better off—and would be better off even if for some reason you couldn’t trade off some of the stock to restore the optimal mix.

When Will We See Real Change?

by Chris Bodenner

Scott Lucas takes stock of the situation in Egypt:

[There is] uncertainty surrounding political talks between the regime, led by Vice President Omar Suleiman, and the opposition. Government outlets were soon announcing that agreement had been reached on joint committees, including one for 5412410519_168450fd49_z Constitutional reform, free media, and an end to the military emergency. Other signals cames from the opposition side: the Muslim Brotherhood, now acknowledged by the Government for the first time in more than 50 years, said it was not negotiating but only ensuring that the regime heard the opposition point of view; representatives of the Tahrir Square protesters insisted that the immediate departure of President Mubarak remained an essential precondition; and Mohamed ElBaradei, who has been named by opposition parties to present their position, said he had not even invited to the discussions, even though his representative was there. 

Opposition sources later told media, including the BBC's Jon Leyne, that the talks had been limited to two points: constitutional changes and the procedure to implement them. That would fit the regime narrative that President Mubarak has to be replaced in an "orderly" process, involving Parliamentary approval of a replacement and a procedure for elections, rather than stepping down immediately. Given that the Parliament was dissolved last week by Mubarak, the time involved in even these limited steps would let the President enjoying his office desk for more months.

This is the process that the US, for all the confusion surrounding its position, is backing. President Obama used the occasion of American football's Super Bowl for a pre-game interview in which he got back to his Administration's mantra of "orderly transition".

Image created by Nick Bygon, who writes:

They've Got Arianna

by Conor Friedersdorf

The Huffington Post is being acquired by AOL for $315 million.

The detail I found most interesting:

Arianna Huffington, the cable talk show pundit, author and doyenne of the political left, will take control of all of AOL’s editorial content as president and editor in chief of a newly created Huffington Post Media Group. The arrangement will give her oversight not only of AOL’s national, local and financial news operations, but also of the company’s other media enterprises like MapQuest and Moviefone.

(Obligatory Moviephone link.)

Here's Arianna Huffington's thoughts on the deal – and a video interview the heads of both companies did with Kara Swisher.

What's my opinion? I suppose that I am agnostic. I'm not that familiar with the whole of AOL's media empire. But I'm very curious to see how this plays out, and hopeful that it will be a success. The same goes for The Daily and the merger between The Daily Beast and Newsweek (full disclosure: I've written for every enterprise named in this post save The Daily.) Everybody is trying to figure out what model is going to make money on the Web – it's an exciting time to be in media, and every venture is another data point. The most interesting part of Huffington's vision is being a player in local news. There are a lot of places that could use that.

Where Cameras Can't Go

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by Patrick Appel

Sheila Carapico considers what the news networks miss:

The wide-angle aerial view from television cameras trained down on Tahrir Square in central Cairo is unprecedented in the history of world revolutions. ... But what television has brought to the world is only a partial reality. There is only Tahrir; the huge metropolitan expanse of Cairo and the families at home in neighborhoods are beyond the frame, oddly irrelevant. The participants in the revolution are the hundreds of thousands of demonstrators, not the equal numbers standing unpicturesque guard by night to ensure the safety of neighborhoods. TV shows a mass, not a massive group of individuals. This televised reality has become hugely controversial. 

(Photo: Traffic and pedestrians move along a bridge leading to Tahrir Square February 6, 2011 in Cairo, Egypt.)

How To Plunder The Lottery

by Zoe Pollock

Jonah Lehrer reports on Mohan Srivastava, the man who cracked the code on scratch lottery tickets:

“The lottery corporations all insist that their games are safe because they are vetted by outside companies,” Srivastava says. “Well, they had an outside auditor approve the tic-tac-toe game. They said it couldn’t be broken. But it could.” Fundamentally, he believes that creating impregnable tickets is extremely difficult, if not impossible. “There is nothing random about the lottery,” he says. “In reality, everything about the game has been carefully designed to control payouts and entice the consumer.” Of course, these elaborate design elements mean that the ticket can be undesigned, that the algorithm can be reverse-engineered. The veneer of chance can be peeled away.

The best part is Srivastava did the math and realized he could make more money consulting than gaming the system.

Palin, Inc.

PalinEmptyChair_EricThayer_Getty

by Chris Bodenner

Real American Sarah Palin is trying to trademark her name:

Politicians seldom trademark their name but they might do so to prevent others from using it, for example, to sell shoddy, unapproved merchandise or "official" candidate memorabilia. A search for other political figures such as President Barack Obama and potential 2012 GOP presidential candidates Mike Huckabee, Tim Pawlenty and Mitt Romney do not show any pending trademark applications. It is a rarity, say trademark attorneys, for political figures to file such forms.

The Palins are facing a long road in the effort to trademark their names. "Generally one can trademark one's name," said Jeffrey S. Kravitz, a Los Angeles-based intellectual property attorney. "But, it is not easy."

It becomes even more difficult when you forget to sign the application:

Did Someone Try To Kill Suleiman?

by Chris Bodenner

Robert Gibbs was asked in a press conference about the shaky report of an assassination attempt on the Egyptian vice president. Marcy Wheeler finds Gibbs' response "fascinating":

You would think if Gibbs knew the allegation was false, he’d say so in no uncertain terms. If he didn’t know about it, he’d tell reporters he’d get back to them on it. But instead, “I’m not going to get into that question.”

Which is not dissimilar from the way Hillary used this alleged assassination attempt in Munich. In spite of the fact that only Fox has reported it in the US, the German diplomat who at one point seemed to confirm subsequently retracted it, and an Egyptian official has denied it, Hillary used the alleged assassination to support her case that stability is key in the transition to Egyptian “democracy.”

Lee Smith speculates over political intrigue on the Egypt side:

Sunday, February 6, 2011

"Do Not Be Afraid"

by Chris Bodenner

In a video shot on January 18, a defiant young Egyptian, Asmaa Mahfouz, praises the self-immolating protesters and challenges men to join her and others turning out to Tahrir Square:

Xeni Jardan provides more context:

The video is popularly credited with helping inspire fellow Egyptians by the thousands to participate in protests in Cairo's Tahrir Square, calling for an end of the 30-year authoritarian rule of Hosni Mubarak. The video is also credited with helping to inspire the Egyptian government to block Facebook. Whether it's accurate to credit this one video, and this one young woman, with all of that, I'll leave to activists in Egypt who know the history better than I. But at the very least, her powerful video captures the spirit of an important moment in history.

Physical Health Break Update

Breathe

This is already the longest sick leave I've taken in ten years of blogging so it pains me to say I'm not quite 100 percent yet. My docs don't want me back in the thick of things until I regain my full energy levels, and although I really, really hoped to be fine by now, I can't force my body to rebound so quickly from something that turned pretty serious. And when you've had HIV for 17 years, you learn not to push your immune system too hard. Aaron has also put his foot down, which settles it.

Still, the worst is clearly over and I can't express how exhilarating it is to breathe freely and deeply again. This morning, after a session on the nebulizer, I opened the bathroom window and drew the cold damp air deep into my lungs. No drug beats oxygen.

My favorite poem about breathing, by the way, is very, very Catholic and some of you may find it a bit much, but Gerard Manley Hopkins' classic here is a linguistic treasure. Money quote:

Wild air, world-mothering air,
Nestling me everywhere,
That each eyelash or hair
Girdles; goes home betwixt
The fleeciest, frailest-flixed
Snowflake; that’s fairly mixed
With, riddles, and is rife
In every least thing’s life;
This needful, never spent,
And nursing element;
My more than meat and drink,
My meal at every wink ...

For Hopkins, this was like the ubiquitous presence of the Blessed Virgin. For me right now, it's just a reminder of how blessed we are ... to breathe.

--- Andrew

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