Sudan Referendum Has Implications for Egypt, Analyst Says
Cecily Hilleary
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Washington
January 06, 2011
Photo: PA
Pro-separation activists rallying outside Juba airport in southern Sudan where Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir arrives, 04 Jan 2011
Southern Sudan on Sunday will begin several days of voting in a referendum to decide whether to secede from the North-based government. Arab nations, particularly neighbors, Egypt and Libya, are uneasy. Neither participated in the Nairobi peace talks which led to the referendum. Egypt would prefer a loose confederation and had hoped the referendum would be postponed. It blames the government of Omar Bashir for failing to keep the country together and present a more attractive portrait of unity.
Dr. Hamid Eltgani Ali is Assistant Professor of Public Policy at the School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo. VOA’s Cecily Hilleary asked him for his assessment of a north-south divide in Sudan.
Hilleary: What is Egypt’s concern if the South does secede from Sudan, as most analysts predict it will.
Hamid Eltgani AliAli: Because the Sudan is now in flames. Darfur is another hot place, where killing is still going on. It is possible that the Dafuris may ask for the same treatment. They might ask for self-determination - it is possible. Eastern Sudan is possible. Nuba Mountains is possible. The Blue Nile is possible. So these are all hot buttons in Sudan. It’s burning. It is possible that [the country] could disintegrate. The country could run into chaos.
The solution is that, right now, we have a president that has been indicted by the [International Criminal Court]. He is working for his own interests. He is not looking [out] for the interests of Sudan, nor the neighboring countries of the region. So the only option is, they need to put pressure on Bashir to let it go. And he needs to resign not tomorrow, but today.
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North Sudan
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- Leader: Omar al-Bashir
- Capital: Khartoum
- Economy: Oil (50% revenue); Agriculture
- Land mass: 1,865,813 square kilometers
- Population: 34.3 to 36.5 million
- Religion: Muslim Majority
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South Sudan
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- Leader: Salva Kiir
- Capital: Juba
- Economy: Oil (98% of revenue); Agriculture
- Land mass: 640,000 square kilometers
- Population: 7.5 to 9.7 million
- Religion: Mainly Christian and Animist
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Hilleary: And, if the region were to catch on fire, to continue your analogy, what then for Egypt? Egypt worries, for example, about a possible influx of migrants from Sudan.
Ali: That is also a concern because, today, the Sudanese people are migrants everywhere, and if the countries start disintegrating - and I’m sure there will be a lot of chaos - where the option is? They got to go to Egypt. It’s the closest place. The borders are easy for people to [cross].
The other thing is about the Nile water. It’s a big concern for Egypt. [The] more people there are in the Nile Basin, the less [is] the Egyptian share of the water. Right now there is a lot of tension in the Nile Basin countries. That is not going to get better at all.
And the other thing is economic interests. That is, Sudan and Egypt could have a good common integration formula, because there is a good food processing industry in Egypt, while Sudan is a very fertile land and very good for the agriculture industry.
So now, those economic interests will be decimated. Now, we are going to see a lot of poverty and misery in Sudan. We have seen just yesterday, the government has already passed its budget and now they held an overnight session and passed a resolution that is undermining the whole macroeconomic of the country.
Now, we see a lot of inflation, a lot of poverty, and if there is poverty in Sudan why would I want to live there? I would just move to Egypt. So Egypt has the right to all these concerns.
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When Arab muslim dictators control a country they do not care about the people.Their aim is to be poweful amass as much money and distribute some to their friends and collaboratoresThey mostly use religion and division to get the people away from them.Look at all these countries people are not educated they do not even read and this is enough to get them away and have freedom of action.This is the calameties of the arabs or muslim dictatorship.
The most serious problem with Muslim countries is the utter ignorance of their people who are illiterate and uneducated. The other serious problem is the heretical teachings of some Imams that gather large followings of the poor.
we are not going to see a lot of misery as you predicted actually we are going to see a better Sudan, South Sudan is going to be a great country with a great future but maybe very diffecult for Egyptians because their water need is going to be a problem (head ach) for them but they should learn/start to work with all basin countries, their 19 Century politics is not going to work
The factor at the root of North-South civil war is the adoption an islamic state with the Quran as the legal framework. As the South is predominantly Christian and animist, "islamisation" is rejected by this part of the country. However, secularism, by advocating a non-religious nature of the States, creates an environment where different religions can live together. This would have helped Sudan to remain individed.
Sudan is a state without a soul. There is no sense of national pride or belonging. The normal response of Europeans who visit is "Why does anybody want to live here?". It is no surprise they want to split up into small states. I think most Sudanese would want each town and village to be independant.
think let south sudan go becouse they had surfer lot and god has given them time to rest in there own country. sothe sudanese the been living any were in the countries eg uganda congo kenya south frican ghana acct so let them go.
The Arab Leaders need to learn lesson from Sudan ,otherwise they will have same problems in there Countries.
An execllent interview with a very credible source. I have know Dr Hamid Ali and his family for several years. His PHD is in economics and is a nativie of North Darfur.
Great! its payback for the egyptian and sudanese, remember how the Egyptian former UN secretary general Boutros Boutros Ghali made sure the eritrean referendum of 1993 occured in order to divide and weaken Ethiopia, PAYBACK FOR ALL EGYPTIANS WHO FUEL CONFLICT IN THE HORN OF AFRICA. next we will make sure the NUBIANS get their referendum with the capitol of ASWAN, as they are marginalized and discriminated against.
Life of sensible people in muslim country is like in a hell
>It is a lesson for Muslim fundamentalist....You cannot live in peace without others having peace
The South Sudanese deserve independence, since they have been suffered, marginalized and has been treated as a second class citizens because of their ethnic origin and their belief for The Lord Jesus Christ.
Arab AND Muslim controlled the world for thousands of years, the most powerful empire in the human life, Now you cannot underestimate their political and their influence decision .that means if the west collapse all action taking with there help will collapse as well ,that main all the benefits that will go to the south of Sudan will go back to the north side the new Islamic country .this is just small clips of the law of attraction'' To every action there is always opposed an equal reaction
Islam is not the reason for the bad things that happen in Sudan, it is the muslims who interpret the islamic teaching in a bad way. Islam teaches everyone to respect the right of the others regardless of their religion. it is people who are in charge that give islam a bad name that it has in the world nowadays. it is my hope that sudanese find peace that they deserve, they have suffered long enough.
Most Muslim countries live under Sharia law and force their harsh law upon everyone in the land. Christians and all non-Muslim are treated as second-class citizens.
I born in a war in South Sudan, I lost all my childhood friends as the result of Sudan war, the situation forced the Southerners seced. I beleive the Nuba mountain, Blue nile, Darfur region, as Profesor Hamid Ali commented will also split from Pres. Bashir homestead. Egypt was atempted into some nagetive steps to posponed the South referandum, that will cause some incomplication cooperation between S.Sudan/Egypt. Nile water will be the great worry to Noth Sudan/Egypt when S. Sudan seced
Look at the Sudans Mahad Map, It lies on Nile water till Egypt border.We Egyptians want this part of sudan .this faild satets no longer stand alone. Egypt responsible this sister country must united with it.We going to unified and imbererssing the enimes
One of the solutions is bring democratic, freedom, human rights...etc. unfortunately the future Sudanese leaders are in diaspora,and Dr, Hamid Eltgani Ali one of them. Infact we should make revolution and bring our minds to build our country. we have a president that has been indicted by the [International Criminal Court], what a shame!!!!
So it is the responsibility of Sudanese people to protect the country from the tyrant today not tomorrow .
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