The final results of the recent parliamentary elections in Egypt promise five years of political irrelevance for the institutional opposition. With only 16 seats out of 504, opposition parties achieved the worst electoral result since 1990, when Egypt was experiencing a severe balance of payments crisis combined with widespread discontent over its alignment with the US in the war against Iraq.
The most important element in this disappointing outcome is the most obvious: the combination of systematic vote rigging and violence by security forces in support of the president's National Democratic party (NDP). But that does not entirely explain the patent failure of Egypt's institutional opposition.
Egyptian society is as vibrant as ever, we are often told. However, when discussing this vibrancy and the related desire for change, it appears that internal and external observers are talking of quite different things. On the one hand, the attention of external observers has been catalysed by Mohamed ElBaradei and by the ever-increasing power of new media. On the other hand, within Egypt, a similar function has been played by the waves of strikes and protests affecting urban centres, the industrial towns of the Nile delta and the countryside.
This mismatch in perceptions is closely related to the fact that Egyptian society is still deeply influenced by two traditional – and resilient – cleavages. The first separates upper classes from lower classes, and the second opposes urban and rural forces. The fourfold matrix resulting from the combination of these two distinctions helps us in understanding why my friend Khaled in Fayoum and I in London perceive things so differently, and why this disconnect between institutional and popular opposition harms the prospects for political change in Egypt.
The phenomena attracting external attention have consistently involved only the upper-urban section of Egyptian society. In the case of ElBaradei, it is no secret that most of his support comes from the affluent and educated urban bourgeoisie, and that one of his main weaknesses is his perceived elitism. When it comes to the supposed pervasiveness and thus real power of the Egyptian blogosphere, a quick glance at the ICT development report by the UN telecoms agency tells us that, while overall internet penetration in the country has increased dramatically over the last decade (reaching about one in five Egyptian households), the digital divide between the city and the countryside is far from being bridged, as only 3% of rural households had internet access by 2008.
This figure tells us a lot about the profile of most of the 160,000 Egyptian bloggers: again, they are affluent and educated city dwellers who enjoy what, for the vast majority, is the privilege of internet access.
In much the same way, the institutional opposition – in the form of political parties – is deeply entrenched in the same milieu, finding its core support in either upper-urban groups (the leftist Tagammu' and the liberal al-Ghad party) or in the upper-rural sections of society (as with the Wafd party, which historically represented large landowners). The Muslim Brotherhood, despite its huge potential for mobilisation, is still very much an upper-middle class conservative movement rooted among wealthy professionals and graduates in the larger cities.
Coming from and being largely limited to these social groups, the institutional opposition has been unable to comprehend, let alone represent, the two most relevant movements arising from lower social strata.
On one hand, the movement for workers' rights has gained significant concessions from the government since the first strikes in the textile sector in Mahalla al-Kubra in 2007, and has since gathered momentum and progressively extended its reach towards other manufacturing sectors. On the other hand, following the full implementation of Law 96 of 1992 – also known as "the law for throwing peasants out of their land" – that has to date led to the eviction of more than one million farmers, a peasant movement has emerged in the countryside, though it faces continued repression, as reported by Land Centre for Human Rights.
By its glaring inability to take these grievances seriously, the institutional opposition has condemned itself to continuing irrelevance in parliamentary life and has prevented a credible political articulation of the economic and social demands of both industrial and agricultural workers, ignoring that these movements could indeed constitute the much-needed popular support for a political opposition to the Mubarak regime.
Thus, it is not the split between secular and religious opposition, but rather the one between institutional and popular oppositions that constitutes the foundation for the survival – that's what it is: mere survival – of Egyptian authoritarianism. And whereas the positive reaction to ElBaradei's call for a boycott of the 2011 presidential elections is an encouraging sign, its impact will be minimal unless it resonates with those groups whose voice is rarely heard in Cairo's corridors of power.
Comments in chronological order (Total 24 comments)
28 December 2010 9:32AM
Odd, somehow I had the impression that political parties with roots in religious fundamentalism tended to appeal to rural conservatives.
Is it? I remember a state election in Assam, when our self-styled liberators called for a boycott. They managed to frighten a lot of people. It was only the middle-aged and the elderly who seemed to make it to the polling stations and I confess that I disguised myself a bit and walked to the booth. It took me an hour to get there and an hour to get back. Perhaps 10 % of the electorate voted.
The net result was totally the opposite of what the ULFA (United Liberation [!] Front of Assam) hoped to achieve. Those who supported stayed home and silenced their own voices. Those of us opposed them turned out and voted for candidates likely to oppose them.
El Bardei should re-think suggesting a boycott.
28 December 2010 9:42AM
That is because the Ikwaan isn't a 'fundamentalist' party. Fundamentalism is, indeed, a conservative movement - the term relates to a particular tradition in Protestanism.
The Muslim Brotherhood, by contrast, is a vanguardist utopian revolutionary party. It envisages its members leading Muslim society to a bright new tomorrow, where right minded clerics will guide the population towards righteousness, and all economic and social ills will be solved by application of the fiqh. If a few eggshells get broken - well, hey, they deserved cracking.
It is very very middle class.
This is probably why it is so popular with London-based Lefties. They sense a kindress spirit.
28 December 2010 10:10AM
Unfortunately it's not just the smashing of Catholic icons sort of fundamentalist 17th century Protestantism they share, it's also their views of others religious rights, the rights of women, freedom of speech etc.
I do agree with Teacup about election boycotts what's the point, where does that leave you? The ballot or the gun?
28 December 2010 10:21AM
Mermanism,
Thanks for details about the Muslim Brotherhood.
Reminds me of a group of fellow Orthodox Christians who feel that prayer, rather than medicine and or surgery, are the only way to treat illness. I get angry just thinking about them, people have died of what should have been minor problems - cuts that got infected with the tetanus bacillus, for example. Prayer and sinnging hymns didn't work as well as an toxoid injection would have.
Laikainspace,
One's view point depends on whether one is an omlette maker or an egg. What price the Muslim Brotherhood* thinks of it/themselves as omlette makers?
*I will agree that Muslim Siblings is a bit clunky, but the implied male identity has me worried. I am female, I should add.
28 December 2010 10:22AM
singing
28 December 2010 10:25AM
this is very interesting and informative. I didn't know the muslim brotherhood was urban upper-middle class either.
Maybe they're better off and more effective without the internet. I have a feeling most serious and important political movements around the world are not on the internet.
28 December 2010 10:37AM
Actually, I didn't either.
So where does that leave the Egyptian working class if any concept of workers rights have been smashed by American aid to non-democratic parties?
A choice between hollow nationalism, corruption or the rough justice of Saudi funded religious extremism.
Wonderful.
28 December 2010 11:02AM
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28 December 2010 11:21AM
I don't see the point of posts that are variations on "I should care what happens in the US/Canada/Bolivia/Mongolia/Zimbabwe...." Those who are not interested in the topic need not read these articles.
28 December 2010 12:10PM
Just because the Muslim Brotherhood is led by doctors, dentists and veterinarians doesn't means it doesn't have rural support, though this is largely unquantifiable in a society with no reliable opinion surveys. An election here is not about to won by an illiterate peasant, though at some future point it might be by someone with such support.
You rightly point out that in a society where strikes and boycotts are not reported, they might as well not be happening.
If the election results show us anything, it is that the NPD is being colonised by many strands of opinion. If the party is bound to win, you might as well be a member. Many seats were contested by different party members. Interesting that the number of Christian MPs in the ruling party has diminished though as many stood. If different regions the NPD is seen as secularist, salafist or just plain corrupt, but everyone wants to be on board!
28 December 2010 3:31PM
Even the Socialist Workers Party which, through its involvement in coalitions like Stop The War, have been big promoters of the Muslim Brotherhood know that it is a (in their words) a "bourgeois" party.
Here is the late Chris Harman's analysis, back in 1994, explained the relationship of the extreme left to the Muslim Brotherhood.
Basically, the far Left think that by getting involved with Islamist political parties, they can recruit their members to its own brand of utopian vanguardism. Obviously, this is crap. The Muslim Brotherhood are prepared and able to use violence to achieve its ends (as it does in Palestine and has periodically in many other countries), and it also promises eternal paradise in the life hereafter to its members.
By contrast, most far left parties are only able to offer endless boring meetings above pubs.
28 December 2010 5:25PM
The US Government tries to sanction, isolate, contain and overthrow dictatorships all over the world,
.
.
unless of course the dictatorship is pro-American or does America's bidding, like the Mubarak Regime.
28 December 2010 5:59PM
The US wants Egypt in its sphere of influence and has supported the regime since Nasser left the scene.
This is not to say that it has overwhelming influence. It was under Bush's pressure that the Brothers were allowed to win seats in the previous parliament. Mubarak feels that Obama is weak enough to ignore, hence the turn around this time.
No Egyptian secular ruling party needs the US to make it opposed to islamism. The Brotherhood has been around for eighty years trying to take power from or assassinate the liberal politicians of the Kingdom, Nasser, Sadat and now Mubarak.
The NDP will happily take US money and aid, if proposed, as it first was to get Egypt out of the Soviet orbit. It has a far longer history of opposing salafism than the US which pumped money into salafist opponents of the Soviets and still massively supports the Gulf régimes.
28 December 2010 7:41PM
Most of Mohamed ElBaradei's support comes from the affluent and educated urban bourgeoisie. Photograph: Khaled Desouki/AFP/Getty Images
28 December 2010 8:20PM
The people pronouncing pon the muslim brotherhood here simply don't know what it is, or why exactly it is popular with the upper middle class.
They assume that because it has the word 'muslim' in its name it therefore must be fundamentalist and extemely Conservative. After all the evil Hamas are an offshoot of the brotherhood aren't they?
I am also opposed to the brotherhood, but it can't be so easily dismissed. In Egypt in particular up until Nasser came to power in 1954 the muslim brotherhood essentially provided what David Cameron dreams of in his 'big society'. There are and have always been more radical wings of the party but a large section of it is more comparable to the German Christian Democratic Party (whose leader Angela Merkel is currently chancellor). Prior to Nasser and during the monarchy (and increasingly again today) the Brotherhood almost had a monopoly on civic infastrutcture... especially education (which partly explains its popularity with the educated) and healthcare which it provided with a high degree of efficiency with low corruption.
People who dismiss the muslim bortherhood and Islam generally simply have succumbed to ignorance by equating exceptions to the rule. Within democratic Islamic movement (and interestingly the Brotherhood has always reaffirmed its goal of democratic change... instead of paramilitary action) there is a strong current of charity. The Muslim Brotherhood is primarily, and has always been , an organisation that has provided charitable assistance. This alone is suffiecient to explain its popularity with the concientious middle class.
28 December 2010 8:27PM
The truth of the matter is that Nasser and Arab Nationalism should both have been allowed to take ther course without interference from worried foreign powers. There were two notable (with communism not really ever catching on) competing ideologies to colonialism in Egypt and most of the Arab wordl: Islamism and pan-arabism. Nasser achieved a lot in Egypt but he was constantly undermined because his popularity threatend the western backed monarchies in Jordan and Saudi Arabia. If history had been allowed to take its course without interference I believe is islamism wouldn't have become the main movement for those who wish other countries to stop interfering in their domestic affairs... Egypt would probably be a 'real' democracy today, and the threat of loony-tunes Sharia States would not have arisen (with regards to Iran, the big mistake was Britain and America toppling the democratically elected government in 1953).
28 December 2010 8:31PM
@Mermanism
When you base your world view on a caricature you merely condemn yourself to ignorance.
Do any left-wingers in real life support Islamist parties? Could you name some (apart from maybe, George Galloway).
29 December 2010 4:14AM
robi,
Interesting posts.
Yes, and Hizbollah does pretty much the same thing in Lebanon. Clearly the leaders are good administrators, using funds for improvement of the lives of the needy. If I were poor and marginalised, I would support such organisations over a corrupt, if secular, regime. It is a pity that religion is mixed up in this, but I suppose that faith is the driving force.
29 December 2010 7:00AM
Divided we stand
You know why ??
National Democratic Party know how practically to eliminate any serious movement , the so called Egyption Opposition parties deeply sunk
for ages in secret deals with the NDP , and deeply believed themselves that they are truly opposes ???
In Egypt we know only Policy of restraint and short lame negotiations , secret deals , limited insight
I think Mr. El-Baradie should adhere to an intensive speech aiming to draw on the concerned people who can influence the future of Egypt , he should have a pure leagues know nothing about secret deals and never think to try it
Hope really that he works with People and for people
29 December 2010 8:21AM
I don't know anything about islamism but if your understand The Muslim Brotherhood as well as you understand 'the left' I won't take your word for it.
29 December 2010 11:42AM
Appeal for international solidarity for freedom and dignity of the Tunisian people
For more than 23 years the Tunisian people living under the shadow of dictatorship that blinded him and besieged him by depriving him from his fundamental rights and freedoms. Currently, precisely since 13 days the Tunisian people come forward to protest against poverty, unemployment, humiliation, corruption of the elite who’s govern the country. Despite the peaceful and non-violent character of protests, which were originally started for social reasons, the forces of order and police have acted in a very aggressive and violent manner. Police forces and the National Guard besieged cities, breaking the doors of homes of citizens, destroy the goods of traders and farmers, preventing people from leaving home to work or perform their daily tasks, etc.. Briefly, the police and the forces of order do everything in order to sow terror and scare people and scare him quiet. Without exaggeration, which is happening now in Tunisia is not only a massive and systematic violations of human rights, including economic, social, cultural, political and civil rights but also a situation of widespread slavery which not recognize for the Tunisian people and individuals their right to dignity and freedom and self-determination. Tunisian people's will was forged and trafficked repeatedly during the various masquerades of presidential and parliamentary elections held since the arrival of Ben Ali to power, and even before. In this context the lives of millions of individuals and the collective life of a martyred people of Tunisia who is left for himself are in serious danger. the mafia that governs Tunisia spares no effort to steal more, to grab all wealth and ownership of everything that is on the Tunisian territory, including the lives of Tunisian citizens who are reduced to slaves, who were not allowed to speak or to challenge the order established under pain of imprisonment, torture, starvation, humiliation, etc.. Despite all this, the Tunisian people finally understood that the governors of Tunisia and mafia groups associated to them will not stop the exploit them, humiliate and suppress them by every means to maintain and preserve their illegitimate interests. It seems that the Tunisian people finally realized the need to break the silence and fear imposed by the tyranny in Tunisia. Unfortunately, the Western mass medias still keeping quiet and do nothing to reflect what is happening currently in Tunisia. I am in shock of seeing almost no newspapers, no television channel from France, UK, Germany, Swiss, Belgium, US, etc. or else make a documentary or a debate on the misery of the Tunisian people and humiliation imposed to him by the dictatorship which denies blind his right to life, dignity and freedom. With the exception of the Arabic channel Al-Jazeera, we don’t see any other channel dealing with the Tunisian question. Unlike the coverage of protest that followed the Iranian presidential elections in Iran over than one year before, social protests in Tunisia have not had any echo in the Western media. We counted up until now few deaths and many injuries, it is time to do something to change this and stop the killings.
That's why I’m writing to you now in order to seek your help and solidarity with the Tunisian people. Talking about poverty, unemployment, denial of right to speak, to live freely and to be worthy in Tunisia. Your action would assist the Tunisian people to recover and return stolen wealth and rights forfeited by criminal groups, greedy and police apparatus who doesn’t know the meaning of pity. Please help us, help the people and individuals who suffer in Tunisia. Do not believe the big lie of "Tunisian miracle", it is currently very clear that it was only organized propaganda to undermine any claim or social or political right. In behalf of solidarity between peoples and in the name of common human values that unite all free and dignified peoples and individuals, I ask you to bring to the public debate the Tunisian question and discuss this issue in your articles and programs. Maybe this will help the Tunisian people to regain his freedom one day and destroy the strongholds of fear and shame. This could participate and help Tunisia to become again a land of human encounter, openness and tolerance.
Thank you very much.
29 December 2010 1:21PM
Er if the largest element is corruption and vote-rigging then what does it matter if the opposition is upper-middle class?
Isn't the real problem that until the Opposition pay homage to Emporer Obama they dont have any chance?
29 December 2010 1:41PM
Most of the Muslim Brotherhood members are doctors, engineers, university professors, though most of them were brought up from lower middle class, they're now considered members from the upper middle class. It's the same class to which El Baradei supporters belong, except that the MB members target the lower classes by their charity projects, that's why they have such a huge base in the Egyptian society.
You just didn't mention that the NDP Members are all belong to the capital owners, not a middle class at all, they practically OWN the Country, including the ministers and the policy makers.. but that's somehow understandable, cause you're just making the comparison between the institutional and popular opposition. The only thing they both share is being useless!
29 December 2010 3:32PM
What about the divide between the Islamic and Coptic communities?
Ten percent of the population is a significant political force if it acting as a block.
Heymat