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The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

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A Toast . . . or Perhaps His Presidency Is Toast.

Tags: Barack Obama

Look at the bright side, America. Sure, unemployment’s been 9 percent or higher for 21 straight months, most of the housing markets are awful, foreclosures are hitting all-time highs, and one in seven Americans is on food stamps, another all-time high. But the economy is doing well for some folks, like this group of technology business leaders meeting with President Obama in Woodside, California, last night.

Obama toasting with Silicon Valley executives.

To Recovery Summer Fall Winter Spring! May the good times continue!

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Rep. Chris Murphy, Heartbroken Over Justin Bieber

Tags: Chris Murphy

Just think, Connecticut citizens. With luck, you may have this man as your next senator!

Connecticut Congressman Chris Murphy had a case of Bieber fever, but he’s feeling much better now.

Here’s where the story begins.  Murphy, who would like to become Connecticut’s junior senator, has a Twitter account.  Who doesn’t these days?  But unlike many members of Congress, Murphy actually manages his own Twitter feed.  “There’s no filter,” spokesperson Kristen Bossi told the Hartford Courant, “Chris tweets everything.”

And that’s where things take a turn for the unusual.  Apparently Rep. Murphy is a reader of Rolling Stone and caught Justin Bieber’s interview with the magazine.  In the interview, Bieber apparently sings the praises of his native Canada’s government-funded health care system.  What self-respecting liberal wouldn’t jump all over that?  Murphy tweeted a link to the article to the Huffington Post saying “Bieber on health care.”

But what Murphy missed in the interview was Bieb’s stance on abortion.  Turns out the teen pop uberstar is anti-abortion.  That’s not what Murphy wants in his campaign profile, so an hour later, he sent out this tweet:  “Oh wait . . . just heard what Biebs said about abortion. Ugh.”  He even used the hashtags #timetobequietagainjustin and #bieberfevercured.

But Congressman, what does Kim Kardashian think about the upheavals in the Middle East?

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Tim Pawlenty to Talk Public-Sector Unions at Tea Party Summit

Tags: Herman Cain, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty

Wisconsin’s teachers, the runaway state lawmakers, the DNC, and President Obama have all ensured that a major issue in the 2012 GOP primary will be reining in runaway expenses for public-sector unions.

Tim Pawlenty will headline an inaugural policy summit being put on by one of the largest national tea party groups in the U.S.

Tea Party Patriots announced Friday morning that the former Minnesota governor and probable 2012 GOP presidential candidate will be the keynote speaker at their event, titled “American Policy Summit — Pathways to Liberty,” which is being held February 25-27 in Phoenix, Arizona.

Rep. Ron Paul of Texas and businessman and radio talk-show host Herman Cain — who are also considering bids for the White House — are also speaking at the event, which organizers say will bring tea party supporters and public policy analysts together for briefings, discussions and policy debates. The summit is being held as tea party activists mark the second anniversary of their movement’s birth.

“Governor Pawlenty is looking forward to sharing his lessons learned from winning tough battles with the liberals and public employees’ unions in Minnesota,” Pawlenty adviser and spokesman Alex Conant tells CNN. “This tea party group is a great champion for tax and spending cuts — something Governor Pawlenty feels strongly about.”

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Congress Will Lose One Webb; Could It Gain Another?

Tags: Jane Harman, Mike Webb

In Jane Harman’s district in California, at least one Republican officeholder is throwing his hat in the ring:

Redondo Beach City Attorney Mike Webb officially announced today that he will seek the congressional seat being vacated by long-term incumbent Jane Harman. The 36th Congressional District runs from the Los Angeles harbor through the greater South Bay area and reached up to west Los Angeles. Harman is expected to officially resign next week. Governor Jerry Brown will then call a special election to fill the remainder of Harman’s term.

Democrats who have announced bids for the seat include Secretary of State Debra Bowen, Mervin Evans, and Los Angeles city councilwoman Janice Hahn.

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Witnessing Outrageous Behavior, Nir and Far

Tags: Something Lighter

Talking Wisconsin and Nir Rosen last night with my friend Cam Edwards . . .

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The Most Dramatic Bus Journey Since ‘Speed’

Tags: Wisconsin

Among the headlines in today’s Morning Jolt: “The Fugitive Legislators,” “Rosen, Crass,” and “Imbroglio Killed the Portfolio Czar.” And then . . .

ADDENDA: The best development to come from the insanity in Wisconsin? This Twitter feed for the fleeing Wisconsin Democratic State Senators, offering continual updates on their journey. Highlights: “This isn’t good: Coggs is certain he just spotted Dog the Bounty Hunter.” “Say, you don’t suppose Illinois has some sort of extradition treaty with Wisconsin, do you?” “Some local sheriff named Buford T. Justice keeps trying to pull us over. Luckily, Erpenbach’s got mad skills at the wheel.”

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First Cambridge Cops, Now Wisconsin Teacher Contracts

Tags: Barack Obama, Scott Walker

It probably shouldn’t surprise us that President Obama begins his comments on Wisconsin governor Scott Walker’s proposals with the words, “I’d say that I haven’t followed exactly what’s happening with the Wisconsin budget,” and then promptly declares that Walker’s plan “seems like more of an assault on unions.”

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Perriello: No, No, After You, Tim.

Tags: Tim Kaine, Tom Perriello

Looks like Virginia Democrats have their Senate candidate pecking order: First former governor Tim Kaine, then former congressman Tom Perriello.

The Post:

Former Rep. Tom Perriello (D) said Wednesday that he would “consider” running to succeed retiring Virginia Sen. James Webb (D) in 2012, but only if Tim Kaine decides not to make the race. In his first interview since Webb announced his decision last week, Perriello said he agreed with other prominent Virginia Democrats in hoping that Kaine — the former governor and current Democratic National Committee chairman — would decide to run for Senate. Virginians from both parties are waiting to hear Kaine’s decision, even as some Democrats make the case that Perriello should run.

Still, there’s potential for an inspiringly casual slogan: “Tom Perriello: He’s Only Running Because No One Else Wanted To.”

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Does the Hatch Act Apply to ‘Arthur’?

Tags: Arthur, PBS

A wise reader wonders if the appearance of the PBS children’s-series character “Arthur” at a press conference with House Democrats runs afoul of the Hatch Act.

The first question to be resolved is whether the individual wearing the “Arthur” suit is a federal employee or not.

If the “Arthur” is a federal employee, the Hatch Act permits federal employees to “attend and be active at political rallies and meetings,” so that would seem to cover it. But the Hatch Act also prohibits ”engaging in political activity while in official uniform.” Obviously, this provision is most frequently applied to military personnel.

But if your job at a PBS station is to wear the Arthur suit for events, isn’t that your “official uniform”? The whole point of the rally is that “Arthur” was there, not merely “the guy who dresses up as Arthur.”

The chances of anything coming of this are small. But besides the garden-variety exploitation of children’s-book characters to avert a serious discussion of whether the federal government should be subsidizing television programming in an era of runaway debt, we have the frustrating example of taxpayer-funded resources being used to argue against the taxpayers’ being relieved of that expense.

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Nir Rosen: ‘I was not aware of the right wing attack machine waiting to take me down.’

Tags: Nir Rosen

Well, that didn’t take long. Nir Rosen has begun discussing the “right wing attack machine” in the events that led to his resignation.

Why were you compelled to resign from NYU so quickly? Were you asked to step down?

US academic establishments are already under attack from the right, and my Center at NYU stood to be harmed by the pack of dogs sent to take me down, and I did not want to harm a very important center or the work of people I greatly admire.

Did you receive any form of official university response or reprimand regarding your comments?

I did not receive any official reprimand.

Do you think your tweets have been unfairly attacked or blown out of proportion?

I think certainly my tweets have been unfairly attacked and blown out of proportion. That does not excuse my lapse of judgment for making them in the first place. I stupidly didn’t think that some crude banter would become fodder for thousands and I was not aware of the right wing attack machine waiting to take me down, nor did I realize, even though I was criticizing the celebrity culture in the media, what happens if you mock one of those celebrities, especially if you do it in such an offensive way as I did.

That said, I find the reactions sanctimonious and silly. A few crude jokes on twitter do not make a philosophy, they just make you a momentary jerk. I didn’t mean it and I have a record of eight years of risking my life for justice to prove my values. Had I been a right-wing writer I doubt this would have happened to me. That said, twitter is not a place for nuance and I should stick to long form journalism.

Because you have to be a part of the “right-wing attack machine” to ask whether NYU’s Center on Law and Security would want itself associated with his remarks.

UPDATE: I see Nir Rosen has noticed me, accusing me of using his awful judgment to “further my career.”

Others include Michael Totten, Lee Smith and Jim Geraghty of the National Review, who led the crusade against me. I used a horrible situation as a way to provoke some friends. They are using it to further their careers.

Sure, pal. I’m the one who’s on shaky moral ground here.

Writing about him furthered my career how, precisely? I have the same title as I did three days ago. Same duties. Same paycheck. I’m working at the same desk I was before he even heard the news about Lara Logan. It’s almost as if I had barely heard of Nir Rosen before all this began, was surprised and shocked to come across his Twitter comments, figured he would probably try to delete them and hide what he wrote, had the good sense to hit “print screen” a couple of times, and then put them out for the world to see and for NYU to contemplate what reaction was most appropriate. Nah. The whole thing had to have been part of my career plan.

Then again, if anyone has some position of fame, fortune, and influence that they’re willing to offer as a result of my coverage of this . . . heck, my e-mail is above.

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On the Budget, Obama Simply Lies.

Tags: Barack Obama

The country faces a serious problem. We’re starting to reach the point where long-delayed, painful financial decisions cannot be put off much longer; we’re all out of later. The future is now, in most of the worst ways.

And as we try to discuss the best way to rectify this financial mess, our head of state continues to state things that simply aren’t true. It’s not a matter of spin, it’s not a matter of interpretation; he simply is saying that 2 + 2 = 5.

Speaker Boehner’s office lays it out:

President Obama tonight repeated a claim about his job-destroying budget that has already been discredited by independent voices as “not close to being true” and “literally not true.”  Here’s what the president said during a one-on-one interview with WCPO-TV Cincinnati’s Carol Williams: “My budget freezes spending for five years, and what that does is it solves the short-term problem by saying, we’re not going to spend any more money than we’re taking in.

Here’s a fact: in every year of the President’s budget, the federal government would spend more than it takes in.  It’s all laid out in the White House’s own budget tables:

Every year, more money going out than coming in.

At no point in the president’s 10-year projection would the U.S. government spend less than it’s taking in,” ABC News reported the day the budget came out.  After the president made a similar claim in his news conference earlier this week, FactCheck.org evaluated the claim as “not close to being true, even assuming that the president’s budget is enacted exactly as proposed and all economic assumptions turn out to be accurate.”  One budget expert, Robert Bixby of the non-partisan Concord Coalition, told McClatchy, “It’s loose rhetoric.  It’s literally not true.

The administration’s solution to the problem is to insist that it’s not a problem.

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Happy Anniversary, Stimulus. Look What You’ve Done in Two Years.

Tags: NRSC

Today is the two-year anniversary of the stimulus bill becoming law, and the National Republican Senatorial Committee has a one-minute web ad spotlighting the claims of the senators who voted for it and how their states are doing. It’s quite well done, I would argue:
 

I know, I know, “things would be worse without it,” and “it’s saved or created a hillion jillion bazillion jobs,” and “we’re about to enjoy a Recovery Summer Fall Winter Spring,” and so on. Yawn.

I expect you’ll see a lot of ads in this vein over the next two years.

I would note, though, that perhaps the NRSC shouldn’t complain too much about the stimulus; after all, it did create a lot of new jobs for aspiring Republican senators.

UPDATE: Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida adds these words:

The stimulus didn’t fail because of bad intentions. The stimulus failed because government doesn’t create private sector jobs. U.S. senators don’t create jobs. Regulatory agencies don’t create jobs. Jobs are created by everyday people from all walks of life that start a new business or expand an existing business. The job of government is to make it easier for them to do that — not harder. And growing our debt, it makes it harder on them to do that. It makes it harder on them to do that because it dries up the availability of money that people can invest in the private sector. It makes it harder because, ultimately, it makes people afraid the future is going to include higher taxes, and higher taxes are not a stimulus generator.

The reality is, the stimulus package set us backwards, not forwards. And I hope that we never repeat that mistake again.

The most important thing we can do here in Washington, D.C., to help grow our economy is to be helpful to the people that grow the economy — the everyday people from all walks of life who have a dream and pursue it by starting a business and employing others. We need to make it easier for them to do that by getting control of runaway, excessive, and quite frankly, sometimes ridiculous regulations. We need to get a hold of this debt crisis that faces our country and that threatens our future. And we need to give people a simple, sane, fair and affordable tax code.  These are the things I campaigned on. These are the things that I’ll work for as a United States Senator. I look forward to working with all of you and make all of this a reality. Thank you all. May God bless all of you, and may God bless our country, the United States of America.

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Senator Bob Casey? Sorry, I Don’t Recognize That Name.

Tags: Barack Obama, Bob Casey, Pat Toomey.

As the fortunes of Democrats in his home state of Pennsylvania have waned, Sen. Bob Casey has pursued an ingenious strategy: anonymity.

President Barack Obama’s job rating among Pennsylvania voters is 51 – 44 percent, his highest standing in the Commonwealth since July 2009 when it was 56 – 33 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

But Pennsylvania voters tell the independent Quinnipiac University survey they oppose two of President Obama’s key issues: Voters say 52 – 40 percent that the U.S. should not be involved in Afghanistan; Voters say 48 – 42 percent that Congress should repeal Obama’s health care reform.

Sen. Bob Casey Jr. has a 44 – 24 percent approval rating, but even after four years in office, 31 percent of the state’s voters are undecided about him.  By 46 – 28 percent, voters say Casey deserves another term in office.

 Asked about the 2012 election, 45 percent say they would vote for the president and 39 percent say they would vote for the Republican who runs against him.  By a narrow 48 – 45 percent Pennsylvania voters say Obama deserves a second term in the Oval Office.

Sen. Casey’s 44 – 24 percent job approval score is a jump from his 39 – 29 percent approval rating in Quinnipiac University’s December 16 poll.  In today’s survey, Democrats approve 58 – 10 percent and independent voters approve 42 – 30 percent.  He gets a negative    32 – 37 percent score from Republicans.

“Although Sen. Bob Casey, the son of a former governor with the same name, was a statewide elected official for eight years as state auditor general and has served four years as senator, it is somewhat surprising that 31 percent of Pennsylvania voters haven’t decided whether they think he is doing a good job,” Brown said.  “That’s not that much lower than the 39 percent who don’t have an opinion about the Commonwealth’s other senator, Pat Toomey, who has been in office just six weeks.”

Toomey’s approval rating is 41–21 percent.

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From Nir Rosen to the Muppet Lobby

Tags: Jim DeMint, Nir Rosen, PBS

Some nights and early mornings, the Jolt almost writes itself . . .

As OneRepublic Said, ‘It’s Too Late to Apologize.’

Well, that’s resolved. In part.

Should we feel good that Nir Rosen has resigned from NYU’s Center on Law and Security? I’m sure many will. I’m somewhat relieved that NYU didn’t confirm my worst suspicions and respond with a pro forma, ‘I’m sorry if anyone is offended, now let’s sing kumbaya’ that we’ve seen academic administrators deploy in previous egregious controversies.

Rosen’s apology can be found here.

I remain close to my sense that this kind of a reaction goes beyond political incorrectness or controversy to suggest a lack of empathy that offers a profoundly disturbing suggestion about Rosen’s psychology. Apologize? Resign? In a way those are almost beside the point, presuming the fallout from this doesn’t trigger some sort of wholesale reevaluation of the way he sees the world. In short, he needs to start seeing people as people and not abstract representations of good and bad political figures.

To hear this awful, awful news about Logan and decide that right then and there, you have to express your grievances about her coverage of Gen. Stanley McChrystal, or her war coverage, or to declare that you’re out of sympathy here? Or the idea that a sexual assault against Anderson Cooper would have been funny?

Who needs to do this? Who needs to take every little bit of information, even the shocking and stomach-turning, and say, “See, this proves I was right?” Is it driven by insecurity? Are figures like this so terrified of having their beliefs challenged that they can’t see it as a human tragedy beyond the realm of our ordinary political debates? Must every new development of the day be processed and categorized as a new variety of supporting evidence proving argument X or point Y?

(A couple of folks have written in, in a frustratingly nagging tone, saying, “Well, what about Debbie Schlussel and Jim Hoft? Huh? Huh? What about them?” I tuned Schussel out back when she wrote that I was writing in captivity over in Turkey and that I must be “Jimmy Carter Geraghty.” Get it? Get it? You see, because I have the same first name as a former president, she’s creatively and wittily putting the two names together, suggesting that I’m on the same page as him! Hooboy! Hilarity! Touché, Ms. Schlussel. Clearly, your all-nighter thinking that one up that proved worthwhile.)

You’ve seen Hoft in this newsletter before, and you’ll see this again. The only thing I’d say to him is that when you’re writing with strong emotions, you can end up writing things you regret. I’ve met Hoft, he seems like a reasonable guy with a good head on his shoulders, so I have a hard time believing that he really thinks that Logan believed that she would be treated differently than other Western reporters. I’ll let him speak for himself regarding this post; I’d note that even if one doesn’t intend to blame the victim, a poorly chosen word or two can inadvertently leave that impression.

I also discuss Sen. Jim DeMint’s mockery of Democrats defending PBS by holding publicity stunts with “The Muppet Lobby.” A key point: “When reached for comment, Cookie Monster responded to DeMint’s argument by declaring, ‘NOM NOM NOM COO-KIE NOM NOM NOM.’”

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Obama Barely Beats Bush . . . 43, We Mean.

Tags: Barack Obama, George W. Bush

This is a poll result that is . . . somewhat surprising: “Asked who they’d vote for if George W. Bush was allowed to run against Barack Obama for a third term next year, voters only go for Obama by a 48-44 margin.” Detail: “PPP surveyed 600 registered American voters from February 11th to 14th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.0 percent.”

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The Money Behind the Democrats’ Latest Star Witness Against Budget Cuts

Tags: Arthur, Ed Markey, PBS

The latest brouhaha on Capitol Hill:

House Democrats made their case for continuing taxpayer funding of public media outlets such as NPR and PBS with a little help from Arthur the PBS cartoon character, who visited the Capitol Wednesday morning.

The friendly but silent aardvark joined Democratic Reps. Edward Markey of Massachusetts, Earl Blumenauer of Oregon and others to hit back against Republicans who have pledged to cut the funding from the Corporation for Public Broadcasting in the next budget.

“We need your help today,” Markey said as a person dressed as the character walked toward the Capitol building. “We can’t leave Arthur and all of his pals in the lurch.”

One might wonder why Arthur couldn’t make up the shortfall from corporate sponsors like Chuck E. Cheese, or Juicy Juice, or McDonald’s, or CVS.

You scoff. Except that all four are already corporate sponsors of the “Arthur” program.

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Alvin Greene Falls Just a Wee Bit Short Again

Tags: Alvin Greene

Better luck next time, Alvin:

Surprise candidate Alvin Greene was soundly defeated in his second bid for elective office on Tuesday. He captured only 37 votes or just about .01% of the 3,892 cast in a Democratic primary to fill a state legislature seat to cover an area including his hometown of Manning, South Carolina.

The good news is, this leaves him more time to devote to his 2012 presidential bid.

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NYU Accepts Rosen’s Resignation

Tags: Nir Rosen

Just arriving from NYU:

From Karen J. Greenberg, Executive Director, Center on Law and Security

Nir Rosen is always provocative, but he crossed the line yesterday with his comments about Lara Logan. I am deeply distressed by what he wrote about Ms. Logan and strongly denounce his comments. They were cruel and insensitive and completely unacceptable. Mr. Rosen tells me that he misunderstood the severity of the attack on her in Cairo. He has apologized, withdrawn his remarks, and submitted his resignation as a fellow, which I have accepted. However, this in no way compensates for the harm his comments have inflicted. We are all horrified by what happened to Ms. Logan, and our thoughts are with her during this difficult time.

Yesterday I predicted, with some cynicism, some sweeping of this under the rug, so I applaud NYU’s Center on Law and Security for taking this seriously. I believe in the First Amendment and the need to forgive the occasional stupid, thoughtless, or insensitive comment; everyone makes one sooner or later. But there was something profoundly disturbing in Rosen’s complete inability to sympathize with the awful ordeal of Ms. Logan and the fact that when others recoiled at his comments, he kept digging in deeper.

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The NRCC Unveils ‘Texts From Two Years Ago’

Tags: Mike McIntyre, NRCC, Ron Kind

The NRCC debuts “Texts From Two Years Ago” [update: now called "Texts From Last Congress"], showcasing regrettable comments from incumbent House Democrats who weren’t washed away by the red tide of the 2010 midterms, coupled with fictional (although believable) constituent responses.

An example:

(202) McIntyre:

“This bill is not perfect, and I am very concerned about its cost as a strong advocate of fiscal responsibility.”1

(910) Constituent:

Wow. I’m guessing you voted no then?

(202) McIntyre:

Oh no, I voted yes, just saying fiscal responsibility is hip these days.

(910) Constituent:

Gee, thanks for nothing.

Or in Wisconsin . . .

(202) Ron Kind:

“What we’re trying to do is pass a recovery package that will create jobs, act quickly and then end . . .”1  

(608) Constituent:

Well, you were right about one thing . . . Those jobs ended pretty quickly.

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Is the Granite State Ready for ‘New Hampshire 1′ TV?

Tags: Bill Binnie, New Hampshire

An interesting bit of news from up in New Hampshire:

Former U.S. Senate candidate and Seacoast businessman Bill Binnie is in the late stages of purchasing Derry television station WNDS, which will serve as the flagship studio for Binnie’s statewide television network, New Hampshire 1 Network, NH Journal has learned.

Sources tell the Journal that New Hampshire 1 Network could launch as soon as April, giving Binnie plenty of time to influence New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation presidential primary.

In fact, the Journal has learned that Binnie’s aggressive moves (he’s been inquiring about obtaining a network affiliation) have kicked incumbent television networks in the region into a scramble to shore up advertisers and prepare for serious competition this year.

Binnie is a Republican. He won a bit over 14 percent in last September’s GOP Senate primary, in a race with four big-name GOP contenders. Former state attorney general Kelly Ayotte won the primary and the seat in November.

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A Really Low Disapproval Rating . . . for a Governor Starting Out

Tags: Tom Corbett

Pennsylvania governor Tom Corbett is still enjoying a political honeymoon, Quinnipiac finds:

Although the largest share of Pennsylvania registered voters, 50 percent, don’t yet have an opinion of Gov. Tom Corbett’s job performance, the new governor gets a 39 – 11 percent approval rating from those who do have an opinion, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. But by a 53 – 33 percent margin, voters don’t believe Gov. Corbett can keep his promise to balance the budget without raising taxes, similar to a 55 – 31 percent finding in a December survey by the independent Quinnipiac University.

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Perhaps the Better Question Is, ‘Do They Care Who She Is?’

Tags: Maureen Dowd

Between Nir Rosen, the difficulty of persuading Americans that the government workforce needs to be cut, and Obama’s irresponsibility in fighting the deficit, it’s a grim Morning Jolt. But it ends with this:

ADDENDA: Finally, a good hearty laugh to end all this: “New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd was denied access to CPAC’s Freedomworks Blogger Lounge this evening. And, she wasn’t happy. ‘Do you have any idea who I am?’ she asked. Apparently, they didn’t.”

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An Appalling Reaction to an Outrageous Crime

Tags: Nir Rosen

The news from CBS about correspondent Lara Logan’s assault in Egypt is awful beyond words.

At a time like this, we all feel helpless. And angry. The perpetrators, anonymous men in an angry mob, may never see justice.

Perhaps we can channel that frustration and anger towards righting a wrong closer to home. To some other outrage . . . say . . . the reaction to Logan’s assault from a fellow at the NYU Center for Law and Security, Nir Rosen.

Nir Rosen deleted some of his worst comments about Logan on his Twitter feed, but . . . it’s the Internet. It’s never gone forever.

I’m sure Rosen will apologize at some point, and perhaps we’ll get some tut-tutting statement from NYU about the need for “civility” and “restraint” and “sensitivity.” Brows will be furrowed. Maybe they’ll hold a seminar about technology and emotional reactions to breaking news events.

But let’s just remember one thing going forward: Nir Rosen believed this was the right moment to let the world know that he “ran out of sympathy for her” and that we should “remember her role as a major war monger” and that we “have to find humor in the small things.”

Your move, NYU.

UPDATE: Nir Rosen has departed Twitter. Your reaction to this development probably depends on whether you think the offense in this circumstance is the ability to broadcast that type of reaction to the crime to the entire Internet, or whether the problem is the reaction itself.

ANOTHER UPDATE: I just called the NYU Center on Law and Security, and they told me they will be posting a statement in response to this matter on their web site within an hour or so (roughly by 11 a.m.).

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Don’t Ask Jim Matheson What He Thinks of Obama’s Budget

Tags: Jim Matheson

If Obama’s budget proposal is giving you a headache, be thankful you’re not one of the few remaining members of that endangered species known as Blue Dog Democrats. Poor Jim Matheson of Utah is none too eager to weigh in on Obama’s gargantuan budget proposal:

There was plenty of reaction floating out there in news land after President Barack Obama submitted his budget to Congress yesterday — some of it good, some of it bad, a lot of it trying to play both sides. But no one heard from Utah’s lone Democrat in Congress, Rep. Jim Matheson.

On Tuesday, the National Republican Congressional Committee sent out a release attacking Matheson for his silence on the budget, noting some Democratic colleagues’ sniping on the spending plan for fiscal 2012 . . . I asked Matheson’s office for his comments on the budget yesterday and was told he was on a plane an unable to comment. On Tuesday, Matheson’s office declined to comment on the NRCC hit.

Matheson is one of those increasingly rare red-district Democrats who manage to enjoy personal popularity despite their districts’ heavy partisan tilt. Utah’s 2nd congressional district scores R+15 on the Cook Partisan Voting Index, and Republican Mike Lee won the Senate race in a walk, but Matheson hung on with 50.66 percent to GOP challenger Morgan Philpot’s 45.94 percent.

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The DCCC’s Attack-First, Get-the-Facts-Later Strategy

Tags: DCCC, Stephen Fincher

A beautiful “Doh!” moment, down in Tennessee:

Democratic officials have spent the past month savaging freshman Republican Rep. Stephen Fincher, claiming he betrayed constituents by campaigning against the new health- care reform law, then signing up for government health insurance at taxpayer expense.

State Democratic Party chairman Chip Forrester called him a liar. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee called him a hypocrite.

The only problem is, Fincher never signed up for government health insurance.

Instead, the Frog Jump farmer opted to keep his private insurance through the Tennessee Farm Bureau and signed a form in November waiving coverage under the Federal Employees Health Benefits program, according to a document provided by his office.

The story behind the erroneous allegation hyped by Democrats offers a window into the take-no-prisoners tactics used by both parties, and raises doubts that recent calls for greater civility in political discourse will yield results.

Look, judging by their “When Are The Jobs” web site, the DCCC isn’t really a detail-oriented organization . . .

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Is Tim Kaine’s Decision Coming Soon?

Tags: Tim Kaine

This little bit of news is likely to . . . er . . . well, I was going to say, “raise some eyebrows,” but maybe I should avoid that metaphor in references to Tim Kaine.

Former Gov. Timothy M. Kaine is expected to speak with President Barack Obama in the next day or two before deciding whether to re-enter elective politics and run for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Democratic incumbent Jim Webb in 2012.

In a brief conversation with the Richmond Times-Dispatch Tuesday morning, Kaine, Obama’s handpicked chairman of the Democratic National Committee, said he could discuss the issue with the president as early as today.

UPDATE: A quick way of how to think of this meeting: Obama wouldn’t bother to talk to Kaine to discourage him from running, so it’s pretty likely Obama will ask him to run. And since Kaine’s current day job is head of the Democratic National Committee, appointed by Obama and effectively serving at his pleasure, the chances of Kaine turning down Obama’s request that he run are slim to none.

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Obama: Symbolic Cuts This Year Could Endanger the Recovery

Tags: Barack Obama

At the president’s news conference, ABC News’s Jake Tapper just asked Obama if he was willing to make cuts to this year’s budget, as a “down payment” on future budget cuts.

Obama says he wants to work with Republicans, but that he doesn’t want to make “a series of symbolic cuts this year that endanger the recovery.” He talks about the danger of “tens of thousands of layoffs in state and local government” or poor performance in the “core functions” of the government.

“Let’s use a scalpel, not a machete,” Obama says. “People should be careful about being too loose when talking about a government shutdown. This is not an abstraction. People do not get their Social Security checks, their veterans’ checks . . . Government shuts down. That, too, would be destabilizing for the recovery. The key here is to be practical, and not score political points.”

UPDATE: It’s worth noting that because of the Social Security Administration bringing back workers on an emergency basis, few if any Americans did not receive Social Security checks during the last government shutdown.

Based on the experience during the November lapse in appropriations and the loss of four full days of production time, any further interruption in service would have a devastating long-term impact on SSA’s ability to process Social Security, SSI and Black Lung claims.  The [Social Security] Agency was still attempting to recover from the effects of the November furlough.  Therefore, employees in direct service positions would remain operational, while staff support employees would be furloughed.  When the partial shutdown began December 16, 1995, about 55,000 Agency employees, most of whom processed claims and/or provided direct public service, were told to report for work.  A total of approximately 11,000 staff employees remained furloughed.

On January 5, 1996, Commissioner Chater informed OMB that SSA’s contingency plan was amended to include the processing of annual wage reports (AWR).  SSA would be receiving nearly 235 million earnings reports for calendar year 1995 from employers and self-employed individuals.  If processing was not accomplished timely, the accuracy and reliability of SSA claims processing would be seriously compromised and a permanent disruption of SSA’s ability to administer the trust funds would occur.  Timely posting of wage information was essential to enable SSA to recompute the benefit payments of three million working Social Security beneficiaries, as well as to compute the national average wage index for 1997.  If AWR processing did not begin immediately, SSA would not be able to accurately compute the 1997 wage base by the statutorily required date, resulting in a permanent loss of receipts for the trust funds, as well as untimely or inaccurate benefit adjustments for 1997.  SSA recalled approximately 950 employees, and following past practice, hired 250 seasonal employees to process this workload.  A total of 9,255 employees remained furloughed.

On February 20, 1996, Commissioner Chater provided a statement to the Committee on Appropriations on the adverse effects of the budget turmoil.  She indicated that SSA managed to operate under the funding limitations imposed by the continuing resolution, but did so at a significant cost.

As CNN summarized at the time, for Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security, checks were issued as normal, but no new applications were accepted; a similar circumstance covered veterans’ benefits: checks were issued, but no new applications for benefits could be processed.

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Obama’s Approval Rating Hits 32% . . . in Michigan!

Tags: Barack Obama

In a way, this shouldn’t be surprising; the economy in Michigan is about one step away from resembling Cormac McCarthy’s The Road, but still . . . to see poll numbers like these in what was once such a deep-blue state:

President Barack Obama’s approval ratings among Michigan residents have dropped to their lowest point since his election, according a State of the State Survey conducted between late October and December 2010.

About 32 percent of residents polled rated his performance as “excellent” or “good,” according to the survey.

“When he first came to office, his ratings were sky high,” said Charles Ballard, survey director and MSU economics professor. “In fact, I think there was such a euphoria upon his taking office it was unlikely for those ratings to stay the same.”

Nationally, between October and December 2010 the president’s approval ratings ranged between about 44 percent and 48 percent, according to Gallup, a national polling firm.

Approval in Michigan might be lower because of the poor state of the economy, Ballard said. Michigan has the fourth-highest unemployment rate in the country at 11.7 percent.

It’s worth noting that this poll sample is from mostly November:

He said the survey conducted from Oct. 25 to Dec. 30 does not account for any bump in public approval Obama might have gotten from his State of the Union speech or his speech following the mass shooting in Tucson, Ariz.

But note these details:

It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1%. The annual IPPSR survey began tracking public opinion in 1994. The latest survey shows Obama is more than three times popular among black residents than whites, and that his support among Democrats has fallen to 64%. Only 9% of Republicans rate Obama’s job performance good. Gov. Jennifer Granholm ended her eight years in office with the worse job performance rating she ever had. Only 18% rated her “good” or “excellent” in the survey.

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Obama Works in Mysterious Ways

Tags: Barack Obama

Moe Lane is exasperated by the latest version of the argument that Obama only looks wrong and naive and foolish to outsiders; that obviously, a man as smart as the president has some secret plan in the works that we can’t see.

Slate‘s John Dickerson declares, “Obama’s spending plan is so timid, he must be working on a smarter plan we don’t know about.”

In Newsweek last summer, Michael Hirsh declared, “Since he first came from nowhere to outmaneuver Hillary Clinton in the 2008 presidential campaign, Barack Obama has been deemed brilliant at political chess. Like any grandmaster, Obama can think several moves ahead, and he knows when to concede a tactical setback.”

Shortly after Obama took office, when the nomination of Tom Daschle blew up in the president’s face, Bob Herbert of the New York Times declared, “Mr. Obama is like a championship chess player, always several moves ahead of friend and foe alike.”

Get it? He’s always ahead of you. Don’t even bother trying.

I’m fairly certain I recall Eugene Robinson making the same point during what looked like an early stumble by Obama. He only appeared to be flailing. He really was playing a bigger game; there is always a vast Obama plan in motion.

I suppose Obama works in mysterious ways.

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This Nevada Primary Challenge Might Raise Some Hell-er

Tags: Dean Heller, John Ensign

Help us, Congressman Heller. You’re our only hope . . . to avoid risking a Senate seat on a deeply flawed incumbent Republican in a state certain to get enormous attention in the presidential race!

According to the Las Vegas Sun, Rep. Dean Heller strongly hinted that he’ll make a primary challenge against Sen. John Ensign by releasing a poll showing him leading a hypothetical matchup among Nevada Republicans, 53 percent to 38 percent. When releasing the poll, Heller issued a statement saying he was taking a “serious look” at a Senate bid. (And with numbers like that, why not?)

Heller is one of the few Republicans newly elected to the House of Representatives in 2006, a former stockbroker, two-term member of the Nevada house and three-term secretary of state. In 2006, one of the Republicans he faced in the House primary was . . . Sharron Angle, a name familiar to those who followed last year’s Senate race. He beat her by 421 votes. In his R+5 district, Heller had Pres. George W. Bush campaign for him twice, and he won, 50 percent to 45 percent. He won 63 percent of the vote in 2010.

His lifetime ACU rating is 89 out of 100.

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Bill Nelson, Having a Tough Time Hitting 50

Tags: Bill Nelson, Connie Mack III, Jeb Bush

If you suspected that two-term incumbent Democrat Sen. Bill Nelson of Florida is vulnerable, you’re right.

Florida Sen. Bill Nelson falls short of the 50 percent mark against five potential Republican opponents, according to a poll commissioned by Ron Sachs Communications and conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research.

The survey, which was shared exclusively with POLITICO, shows former Gov. Jeb Bush as the most powerful Republican challenger for Nelson. Bush leads the senator by 8 points, 49 percent to 41 percent.

But Bush is not considered likely to run, and the polling memo notes that a challenge from the former governor is a “bullet [Nelson] will likely get to dodge.”

That means the Democrat will face off against a Republican who lacks Bush’s high profile and statewide popularity, such as Rep. Connie Mack, former Sen. George LeMieux, state Senate President Mike Haridopolos or former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner.

Nelson fared better against all four of those candidates in the Sachs/Mason-Dixon poll, though he failed to win a majority of the vote in any match-up.

The closest race would be between Nelson and Mack, whose father – Connie Mack III – Nelson replaced in the Senate. Nelson would have just a 5-point advantage over Mack, leading 45 percent to 40 percent.

Against LeMieux, Nelson’s lead widens to 14 points — he’s ahead 49 percent to 35 percent. Nelson has a 23-point lead over Haridopolo (48 percent to 25 percent), and a 22-point lead over Hasner (46 percent to 22 percent).

The poll was taken from Feb. 9-10 and tested 625 registered voters.

This is, of course, quite early. The Republican nominee will have to go through a (probably) deeply divided primary, and Florida will probably see a lot of attention from Obama and the GOP presidential nominee, driving up turnout on both sides. But it’s worth noting that Nelson cruised to reelection against Katherine Harris in 2006, and squeaked by in 2000 against Bill McCollum with 51 percent of the vote.

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Andrew Sullivan Finally Figures Out Who the Rubes Were

Tags: Barack Obama

A quick excerpt from today’s Morning Jolt:

Sullivan Finally Sees What’s Right in Front of His Nose

I don’t pay much attention to Andrew Sullivan anymore, but his latest hyperbolic reaction is worth a gander, just to reaffirm that Sullivan is probably the last who genuinely believed that Barack Obama cared about controlling the deficit: “The core challenge of this time is not the cost of discretionary spending. Obama knows this; everyone knows this. The crisis is the cost of future entitlements and defense, about which Obama proposes nothing. Yes, there’s some blather. But Obama will not risk in any way any vulnerability on taxes to his right or entitlement spending to his left. He convened a deficit commission in order to throw it in the trash. If I were Alan Simpson or Erskine Bowles, I’d feel duped. And they were duped. All of us who took Obama’s pitch as fiscally responsible were duped.”

Yes, you dupe, you were duped.

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Donald Trump, Milking His Fight With Ron Paul Another Day

Tags: Donald Trump, Ron Paul

Who is advising Donald Trump that the way to win the GOP nomination in 2012 is to get into back-and-forths with Ron Paul about his electability?

CNN:

During a speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference Friday, Trump said the Texas Republican was an “unelectable” candidate for president. In an interview on CNN’s “American Morning” Monday, Paul countered that he has won 11 elections.

“I don’t know how many elections he’s (Trump) won so far himself,” Paul said.

Monday on CNN Trump countered that he’s never won an election because he has never run.

“But I’ve employed thousands and thousands of people,” Trump said. “I’ve made billions of dollars, which if I ever decided to run, which is a possibility frankly, I would make lots of money for the American people.”

… If Trump were to win the election in 2012, he said his first action would be imposing a 25 percent tax on Chinese products to make sure the Chinese government is “treating us fairly.”

“I’ve never been elected because I’ve never run in an election and maybe I wouldn’t do well and maybe I would,” Trump said. “But I can tell you one thing, if I ever did get elected this country would be respected again.”

Dear Ron Paul fans: We’ve had our differences in the past. But in the battle against Donald Trump, I stand with you.

Paul may have a Himalaya-like uphill climb in any 2012 bid, but the guy who’s been doing reality shows with Rod Blagojevich and Oreo commercials with the Manning brothers really isn’t the guy to be playing the ‘who’s more electable’ card.

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Ohio Republicans May Turn to a Really Fresh Face

Tags: Josh Mandel, Sherrod Brown

After the recent resurgence in the fortunes of Ohio Republicans, one might think that Sen. Sherrod Brown of the Buckeye state would be facing plenty of potential GOP opponents. But so far, only a trio of little-known candidates have filed papers: Rusty Bliss, Eric LaMont Gregory, and Michael L. Pryce.

With most GOP members of Ohio’s House delegation sounding uninterested, attention is turning to a fresh face… a really fresh face, Ohio State Treasurer Josh Mandel:

If Jordan, LaTourette and Taylor opt out, there’s growing talk in Columbus that the Senate race might fall into the unlikely lap of Josh Mandel. The newspapers wouldn’t like it, as Mandel is widely viewed as being in too big a hurry. At age 33, Mandel is only three years beyond the constitutional age requirement for serving in the Senate.

But Mandel is a world-class fundraiser and, as a Jewish Republican, could cut — perhaps deeply — into a traditionally Democratic constituency that has been extremely supportive of Brown.

When urged to enter the race, Mandel tells friends his entire focus is on being a good state treasurer. But he doesn’t slam the door.

A Mandel candidacy remains unlikely — as would an eventual victory. But that it’s being talked about seriously is amazing. If, on the day Brown was elected to the U.S. Senate, those who pay close attention to these things were asked to list 100 possible opponents for Brown in 2012, Mandel’s name wouldn’t have been on anyone’s list.

A 33-year-old running for Senate? Now I feel old.

Don’t send him to buy drinks for any victory parties; he’ll probably get carded.

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Palin: ‘Beware of the left’s attempt to sell this as ‘getting tough on the deficit’.’

Tags: Barack Obama, Sarah Palin

On her Facebook page, Sarah Palin has weighed in on President Obama’s budget proposal:

Today the White House finally produced its proposal for the 2012 budget. Beware of the left’s attempt to sell this as “getting tough on the deficit,” because as an analysis from Americans for Tax Reform shows, the White House’s plans are more about raising taxes and growing more government than reducing budget shortfalls.

The fine print reveals a White House proposal to increase taxes by at least $1.5 trillion over the next decade. If you want to know how minuscule their proposed $775 million-a-year budget “cuts” really are, please look at this chart. The proposed cuts are so insignificant – less than 1/10 of 1% of this year’s $1.65 trillion budget deficit – that they are essentially invisible on the pie chart. That speaks volumes about today’s budget.

There’s still no word on whether Dana Milbank has been admitted to an addiction treatment center.

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Jimmy McMillan… Republican for President. No, Really.

Tags: Jimmy McMillan, Something Lighter

FEC filings indicate that Jimmy McMillan, the, er, famous gubernatorial candidate of The Rent Is Too Damn High Party, is indeed running for president…

… as a Republican.

Under 'party affiliation,' McMillan put 'Republican.'

Under “party affiliation,” McMillan listed “Republican,” not “Rent Is Too Damn High” or any other assessment of the real estate market or inflation.

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Nikki Haley & Lindsey Graham, Teaming Up Against Obamacare

Tags: Lindsey Graham, Nikki Haley

One of the favorites of South Carolina conservatives, Gov. Nikki Haley, and one of their least favorites, Sen. Lindsey Graham, are teaming up to promote legislation that would permit states such as the Palmetto State to “opt out” of Obamacare.

Graham mentions the value in putting every senator on record as to whether or not their state should have the option of opting out of Obamacare.

In South Carolina Republican circles, there’s still a lot of talk about a conservative challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham, but it’s worth noting he’s not up for reelection until 2014.

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Two Republicans, Filing Early to Take on Raul Grijalva

Tags: Christopher Flowers, Gabriela Saucedo Mercer, Raul Grijalva

In other Arizona political news, two Republicans have filed papers to take on five-term Democrat Rep. Raul Grijalva. Last year the incumbent won only 50.2 percent against Republican Ruth McClung in a D+6 district that is 54.6 percent Hispanic.

Christopher Flowers has not yet decided whether to run in this district or the new ninth district that will be created as a result of the state’s population growth reflected in the most recent census numbers.

The other candidate who has filed papers is Gabriela Saucedo Mercer, a legal immigrant who spoke out in favor of the state’s controversial law aimed at controlling illegal immigration, S. 1070.

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Talking CPAC on WNYC

Tags: Something Lighter

At 10 a.m. Eastern, I’m scheduled to appear on the Brian Lehrer show on WNYC up in New York City, discussing CPAC.

Turnout was a record, more than 11,000 this year, and I find that figure quite believable. In fact, I think all 11,000 were in front of me walking slowly throughout the conference.

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Obama Thinks Your Family Is Running a $1.6 Trillion Deficit

Tags: Barack Obama

Astounding. Only in Obama’s world does it make sense to announce on Saturday, “it’s time Washington acted as responsibly as our families do.  And on Monday, I’m proposing a new budget that will help us live within our means while investing in our future,” and then unveil a budget that projects a deficit of $1.6 trillion.

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Relax, Everyone! The New DNC Ad Says Obama Has a Jobs Plan!

Tags: Barack Obama, DNC

I’m getting a feeling of deja vu with this latest DNC web ad…

Mike Allen of Politico summarizes it as, “DNC’s opening 2012 message, ‘Past Versus Future’: This CPAC remix is the DNC’s first real big salvo since the midterms. The video aims to define the political and message battle of the next two years, and contrasts POTUS with some of his potential opponents.”

Original! Groundbreaking! Nothing like what Obama and the Democrats were saying in the 2010 midterm elections! See, back in October of 2010, they were saying

We have not forgotten, and it’s up to you to remember that this is a choice in the election between the politics that got us into this mess and the politics that are getting us out, between hope and fear, between the past and the future, between moving forward and moving backwards.  And I don’t know about you, but I want to move forward. (Applause.)  David, I want to move forward.  (Applause.)  I want to move forward.

Look, if they win this election, the chair of the Republican campaign committee has already promised to pursue — and I’m quoting here — “the exact same agenda” as they pursued before I took office.

That was President Obama’s remarks at an Oct. 25 reception for the DCCC.

Also note in this video the declaration that “President Obama and the Democrats have a plan to create jobs and win the future.” Hey, great news! Only 21 straight months of unemployment at 9 percent or more, and they have a plan! So another “Recovery Summer” is just around the corner, huh?

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West Virginia’s Bumper Crop of Gubernatorial Candidates

Tags: West Virginia

Perhaps a deficit of prosperity leads to a surplus of candidates running to fix things; West Virginia, for example, does not lack gubernatorial candidates for its special election this October, with 14 candidates filing papers:

One of the final candidates to declare was state Sen. Jeffrey Kessler, D-Marshall, who announced his candidacy Saturday shortly before the 5 p.m. deadline. Kessler, the acting Senate president, has served in the Senate since 1997.

Other Democrats in the race are acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin, House Speaker Rick Thompson, Kanawha County resident Arne Moltis, Secretary of State Natalie Tennant, and state Treasurer John Perdue, according to the state’s elections website.

Running as Republicans are former Secretary of State Betty Ireland; Sen. Clark Barnes, R-Randolph; Putnam County prosecutor Mark Sorsaia; former Berkeley County Delegate Larry Faircloth; Jackson County Delegate Mitch Carmichael; and Monongalia County residents Cliff Ellis, Ralph William Clark and mine-drilling consultant Bill Maloney.

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Because Flakes Are Good For You

Tags: Jeff Flake, Jon Kyl

From the Jolt:

Has There Ever Been a Bigger Congressional Misnomer Than ‘Flake’?

The retirement of Jon Kyl has set off a stir among Arizona Republicans, with just about every officeholder mentioned as a potential Senate candidate. But among the teeming throngs of potential candidates, one popular pork-fighter is getting an early start: Congressman Jeff Flake.

The Arizona Republic: “Rep. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., will announce Monday that he will run for the U.S. Senate being vacated by Sen. Jon Kyl, a source has told The Arizona Republic.

Flake, who was first elected to Congress in 2000, has long expressed interest in running for the Senate. He will make it official at an 8 a.m. news conference at the same Phoenix hotel where Kyl on Thursday announced that he will retire when his current term ends in January 2013.

At Outside the Beltway, Doug Mataconis likes what he’s hearing: “Flake is a strong fiscal conservative and his addition to a Senate that already include the likes of Tom Coburn and Rand Paul would be interesting. Of course, there’s a primary to get through first: Republicans could include Flake, Franks, former U.S. Rep. J.D. Hayworth, former state Attorney General Grant Woods, former Transportation Secretary Mary Peters, former state Treasurer Dean Martin, Maricopa County Supervisor Andy Kunasek and Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu. Former U.S. Rep. John Shadegg was considered an early GOP front-runner but announced Friday that he had concluded the timing was wrong for a Senate campaign. Freshman U.S. Rep. Ben Quayle, R-Ariz., also says he has no plans to run for Kyl’s seat.”

Jen Cubachi is enthralled: “This is a no-brainer. Flake is one of the most popular Republicans in AZ, and he will surely garner the support of the Tea Party and conservatives around the state.”

ADDENDA: I didn’t watch the Grammys, but this observation from John Podhoretz made me feel reassured I didn’t miss anything: “J-Lo’s hair extensions have detached themselves, taken up positions in McArthur Park, and are demanding the disbanding of Parliament.”

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Roger Stone Talks Up Donald Trump

Tags: Donald Trump

One of the folks who are reportedly helping fan the flames of the Donald Trump for President talk is longtime GOP consultant Roger Stone. His latest assessment can be found here:

The Networks have created TWO contests — one in 2011 and another in 2012. This takes national focus off current government efforts to solve the nations problems. It’s a disservice to the voters and will de-value the early state caucuses and primaries. Putting that aside, the process must be played as it is — and the new schedule could be a lay-up for a media savvy candidate like Donald J. Trump.

No one understands the power of television like Trump. Millions tune in the Apprentice to see the most successful and best known businessman in America. Trump’s sharp criticism of trade policy with China, OPEC and the war in Afghanistan could find a large, even commanding segment in the GOP. Trump showed at the CPAC gathering that his star quality plus his pro-gun, pro-life views combined with his pro-business stance can be a winner in the GOP. Trump literally has nothing to lose — and everything to gain by entering the 2011 debates. While Trump says he will decide if he is running by June, I would advise him to wait until the Florida GOP straw-poll in October to decide. After all, Trump doesn’t require time to build his name ID . . .

There can be little doubt that more straw-poll and debates will be sprinkled in. What this does is create a faux race for nomination which precede the real legal nomination. It takes public interest out of the real nomination process by winnowing out losers in 2011 without ever counting real votes. Three boring debate performances and your money and credibility will dry up. A dark horse like Trump could run the tables in the debates and lead in the polls by years end, making a late formal entry. News events will still dominate the days before the Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina and Florida primaries.

The danger of entering too soon and wearing out one’s welcome is a danger for all of the aspiring candidates, really.

I articulated a bit of my disbelief about Trump in today’s Morning Jolt — and really, folks, if you haven’t subscribed, you leave me no choice but to nag you for the rest of eternity.

Since his fame of the 1980s, Donald Trump has proven an almost unparallelled self-promoter. His name, synonymous with gargantuan, hyped, and expensive endeavors, has been plastered on casinos and towers and books and ties and board games, popping up in Oreo commericals, cameos in movies and television shows, in the worlds of boxing and professional wrestling; king of the tabloid pages, a larger-than-life personality who has lingered on the national stage so long he’s been impersonated by Phil Hartman and Darrell Hammond on Saturday Night Live. He licenses his name to real-estate properties that he doesn’t actually own.

In light of his history, the idea of Trump attempting to seriously make a run for president is . . . hard to get one’s head around.

If there is a behavior and style that is “presidential,” Donald Trump isn’t it.

Picture “the President.” Hopefully, you think of dignity. A certain formality that fits the decorum of the office. An appreciation of the history and men, some great and some greatly flawed, who have filled that role before. Despite the large ego necessary to fuel the ambition to run for president, presidential style requires a bit of humility in the face of the awesome responsibilities and extraordinarily difficult, life-and-death decisions every commander-in-chief faces.

And then . . . there’s this:

Or this, which at least thankfully suggests that Trump can laugh at his own image:

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Barrasso to McCaskill: Where Do You Stand?

Tags: Claire McCaskill, John Barrasso

A few moments ago, Sen. John Barrasso of Wyoming encouraged Missouri attendees of CPAC to ask their senator — Claire McCaskill, a Democrat up for another term in 2012 — whether she stands with her home state or whether she stands with Washington on Obamacare.

Back in August, Missourians voted, 71 percent to 29 percent, in favor of an initiative opposing Obamacare.

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Mitt’s Joke Writers, Earning Their Pay

Tags: Mitt Romney

Mitt Romney brought the comedic speed-bag to the opening of his remarks at CPAC: “Saul Alinsky is out, Jeffrey Immelt is in . . . Obama went from ‘Change you can believe in’ to ‘Can you believe this change?’ What we’re watching is not Brave New World . . . it’s Groundhog Day.”

On Afghanistan, he noted that our foes may not have our technology and sophisticated drones, but “they do have calendars,” referring to Obama’s withdrawal timetable.

UPDATE: As noted in the comments, and discussed on Twitter, Romney’s speech made only glancing reference to Obamacare, obviously stemming from the increasingly ubiquitous contention that Romney’s health-care-reform legislation enacted in Massachusetts, with its own individual mandate to purchase health insurance, represented a blueprint for Obamacare. (The president and David Axelrod, among others, have cited Romney’s effort in defending their legislative monstrosity.)

Look, as long as Obamacare isn’t a big issue in the 2012 Republican presidential primary, Romney will be fine.

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Are Citizens United for George Allen? Well, These Citizens Are

Tags: George Allen, Jamie Radtke

Is it too early for endorsements in the now-open Senate seat in Virginia? Not for the Citizens United Political Victory Fund:

Citizens United Political Victory Fund, the affiliated PAC of Citizens United, announced its endorsement of Governor George Allen in the Virginia Senate contest today. CUPVF contributed $5,000 to the Allen primary campaign to start the 2012 cycle.

“Virginia will be the epicenter of the 2012 campaign,” said David N. Bossie, President of Citizens United. “George Allen is the true conservative in the race to take on the eventual Democrat nominee. Governor Allen has served the Commonwealth of Virginia with a steady conservative hand, and will bring those conservative values back to the United States Senate. Picking up the Virginia Senate seat is vital for Republicans to retake the majority in the United States Senate, and George Allen is the best candidate to achieve that goal.” 

CUPVF was a supporter in the 2010 primaries for the successful candidacies of Rand Paul, Pat Toomey, Marco Rubio, Kelly Ayotte, Rob Portman, Mark Kirk, and Roy Blunt. When CUPVF endorsed Paul and Rubio very early on, they were considered long shots.

Citizens United is known for triggering the lawsuit that led to the Supreme Court case that dramatically changed the interpretation of the McCain-Feingold campaign-finance-reform law, eliminating restrictions on corporations and unions running political ads independently from candidates and their campaigns.

The Republicans running for this seat include Allen and conservative activist Jamie Radtke.

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Tim Pawlenty: Let’s Not Follow Greece Into Bankruptcy

Tags: Tim Pawlenty

A quick preview of Tim Pawlenty’s speech before CPAC today:

Just because we followed Greece into democracy, does not mean we need to follow them into bankruptcy.

Of course, the government spenders come with excuses. . . . I know something about the spenders — and I know something about difficult. I’m from the state of McCarthy, Mondale, Humphrey, Wellstone, and now — United States Senator Al Franken.

But we cut government in Minnesota, and if we can do it there, we can do it anywhere. . . .

I drew a line in the sand and said, “Absolutely not.” We’re going to live within our means just like families, just like businesses, just like everybody else.

It wasn’t easy. I set a record for vetoes in my state. Vetoed billions of dollars of tax and spending increases. Had the first government shutdown in Minnesota’s history. Took one of the longest transit strikes in the country’s history to get public-employee benefits under control. And, in the last budget period, I cut spending in real terms for the first time in the history of my state.

Pawlenty is not officially running for president, but is expected to reach a decision sometime in late spring.

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At CPAC, ‘The Donald’ Should Refer to Rumsfeld

Tags: Donald Trump

From the final Morning Jolt of the week:

I Will Not Vote for a Short-Fingered Vulgarian

Is this Donald Trump for president stuff serious? Really? We’re sure this isn’t the latest version of the near-quadrennial publicity stunt (20082000)?

Is it possible this is all stage-setting for some new line of ties coming out? A new book? Reality show? A new board game?

The guy whose dalliances with Marla Maples were the stuff of New York Post headline dreams, who made a large chunk of his fortunes by building casinos and turned Atlantic City into the depressing, pawn-shop-strewn Gotham City it is today, and whose ostentatious taste would prompt Liberace to urge him to “tone it down a little” is going to run for the party of traditional values? The guy who lost money almost as fast as he made it and who once had a personal debt of $900 million is going to carry the banner for the party of fiscal responsibility?

At Michelle Malkin’s site, Doug Powers speculates, “This is a good indicator that he’s serious about throwing his hair, er, I mean hat . . . into the presidential ring. Trump has said in the past that he’ll announce his decision to run or not in June. I hope he runs just so we can see billboards like this: BARACK OBAMA: YOU’RE FIRED!”

At CPAC, Trump mocked Ron Paul, declaring that he can’t win the presidency. Allahpundit’s on the same page I am: “Amusing and certainly true, but as a heckler helpfully reminded him, that’s an awfully big stone to be throwing from a house that glassy . . . Joe Seehusen, Paul’s former deputy campaign manager, had one question for Trump: ‘What do you know about politics? I like Donald, but I think Donald gets carried away sometimes.’ He added there ‘was s certain preposterousness’ that Trump, who has never held public office, could criticize an 11-term congressman for not winning election. Why is Trump even at CPAC, you ask? Because GOProud invited him, ostensibly to ‘help support the conference.’ How it helps the conference to have a publicity whore show up to tout his vanity candidacy, I’m not sure. But give ‘em credit for knowing their audience: Apparently, The Donald brought down the house.”

President Trump? I think I might defect.

Still, if you want a contrary opinion, here’s Jen Cubachi: “I have to admit, after watching Piers Morgan’s interview with Donald Trump and listening to his interview with Laura Ingraham, I was impressed with Trump’s tenacity, wit, and knowledge on the issues. This past month, Trump has been on the forefront on China, their manipulation of currency, and OPEC’s manipulation of gas prices. He’s also articulated that America is being run by idiots who are openly being used and mocked by other nations . . . In an interview with Laura Ingraham, Trump made the point several times that he is ‘very conservative’ and was quick to correct Laura on his opinion about life. Why so quick on that topic, if he’s not running?”

Then again, maybe he’ll settle for his own Saturday Morning cartoon show, as Spy magazine imagined back in the late 80s (introduced by a very young Jerry Seinfeld).

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Newt Gingrich, in His Element at CPAC

Tags: Newt Gingrich

I caught much of Newt Gingrich’s speech in the CPAC ballroom, and it was classic Gingrich.

He offered, tongue-in-cheek, the keynote address at next year’s CPAC if the president is willing to enact a series of conservative reforms, including permanently eliminating the death tax, securing the border, eliminating all taxpayer funding for abortion, and undertaking a serious plan to expand domestic energy production. It had the typical Gingrich zingers; at one point he held up Time’s cover depicting Obama and Reagan together and declared, “I knew Ronald Reagan . . .” He didn’t have to finish the Lloyd Bentsen put-down for the crowd to laugh.

If he runs, he should do well in the debates and fire up the crowds on the stump. But that’s never been Gingrich’s problem, has it? There’s the personal baggage, the fact that he’s been out of office for more than a decade, his stubborn support of Dede Scozzafava after most conservatives had deemed her unacceptable, and a sense that his verbal bomb-thrower persona wouldn’t necessarily come across as presidential.

If this hasn’t been mentioned elsewhere, it is worth noting that this year’s CPAC turnout is 2,000 more participants than last year, which was a record in itself. “If liberals thought 2010 was the peak, I have news for them: 2010 was the appetizer. 2012 is the main course!” Gingrich roared.

(I guess that makes the 2014 midterms dessert?)

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