Room for Debate: A Running Commentary on the News

With the protesters controlling more and more of Libya and senior regime officials increasingly crossing over to the rebel side, the days for Qaddafi's Libya appear numbered. The question becomes one of what can we expect in a post-Qaddafi Libya?

First, it is important to understand that his regime over the last four decades has systematically destroyed civil society in Libya. The country has no political parties, independent trade unions, Kiwanis Clubs, or P.T.A.'s. The last civil organization approved by the regime was the Qaddafi Foundation, created more than two decades ago by the Libyan leader’s second son. The creation in Libya of functioning and effective social and political institutions will take some time.

Second, Libya is a country in which tribal identities remain strong. Initially, Qaddafi tried to undermine the power of the tribes, but he later turned to them for political support. In the process, tribal affiliation became increasingly important, reflecting both the prohibition on alternative organizations and the official celebration of family and tribe in the Green Book, Qaddafi’s ideological handbook. Tribal leaders will play a central role in a post-Qaddafi Libya, including creation of a provisional government, promulgation of a constitution, and the conduct of free elections. Elements of the military may play a role in the area of security; but any attempt at a significant political role will be greeted with suspicion by many members of the protest movement.

At this point, the United States and other countries with economic interests in Libya have little leverage and almost no role to play. Unilateral intervention would awaken unpleasant memories of Western colonialism and imperialism, and intervention through the United Nations would almost surely be too slow to affect the final outcome. At this point, the optimum policy for the Obama administration is to stress its full support in Libya for the very freedoms long enjoyed in the United States.