October 13th, 2010 by Jason

Reidar Visser writes that there are “three races” towards government formation in Iraq at present: The Maliki Project, the Allawi Project, and what could be called the American Project. Visser describes the Maliki Project as “the 89 SLA (State of Law) deputies, the 40 Sadrists plus Ibrahim al-Jaafari and Ahmad Chalabi […] which would bring the total number to a minimum of 131. On top of this, Maliki is obvious angling for the support of the Kurdish parties (58), which would easily bring him above the magical 163 mark required to have a majority in parliament. […] Maliki is also hoping to lure a new coalition between Unity of Iraq and Tawfuq (sic) into his coalition (10 deputies altogether with promises of more), in order to serve a symbolic ‘Sunni representation’.”

The Allawi Project would consist of “building a coalition between Iraqiyya and as many INA (Iraqi National Alliance) breakaway elements from the NA (National Alliance) as possible plus Tawafuq and Unity of Iraq; then convincing the Kurds that this kind of coalition would be favorable compared to a deal with Maliki.” Visser points out that these two options are “competitive” and that any invitation to form a coalition from State of Law or Iraqiyya to the other is “tongue in cheek.”

The American Project would require a rapprochement between all of the parties: “The Americans still seem to be hoping that all the original four big winning blocs – Iraqiyya, SLA, INA and the Kurds – will somehow eventually get together in a single coalition to form the next government, preferrably (sic) without the Sadrists in a too-dominant role. In doing so, the Americans are actually raising the threshold for government-formation…” Visser goes on to list several problems in pursuing the American path. First, it is simply more difficult to form a four party coalition than a three party coalition. Second, “almost all American proposals on the subject of government formation seems to involve simultaneous measures of constitutional reform, since redefining the powers of the presidency now appears to be an aim.” Constitutional referendums are risky and take time, Visser says, leaving the “competitive” projects as the “more realistic” options.

Posted in Elections, Iraq, Kurds, Political Parties, Sectarianism, US foreign policy |