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Think Again: Egypt

From the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood to the Arab autocracy domino theory, five myths about Egypt's revolution.

BY BLAKE HOUNSHELL | FEBRUARY 14, 2011

"Facebook Defeated Mubarak."

No. There's a joke that has been making the rounds in Egypt in recent weeks, and it goes something like this: Hosni Mubarak meets Anwar Sadat and Gamal Abdel Nasser, two fellow Egyptian presidents, in the afterlife. Mubarak asks Nasser how he ended up there. "Poison," Nasser says. Mubarak then turns to Sadat. "How did you end up here?" he asks. "An assassin's bullet," Sadat says. "What about you?" To which Mubarak replies: "Facebook."

There's no question that social networking was a critical factor in Mubarak's overthrow. Groups like the April 6 Youth Movement and the We Are All Khaled Said Facebook page, which first called for the Jan. 25 protests that sparked the uprising, played a daring, important role in breaking the barrier of fear that had kept Egyptians in their homes.

But the popular explosion that led to Mubarak's overthrow was not simply a matter of calling for protests on Facebook; it was the product of years of pent-up rage and frustration at the corruption and abuse of power that had become the hallmarks of the Egyptian regime. The organizers carefully calibrated their messaging for mass appeal and chose a date -- a state holiday meant to celebrate the widely hated police -- that would resonate widely. Offline, they tapped into existing grassroots networks and built their own, such as the million strong who signed a petition calling for fundamental political change. Once the police fled the scene, the protesters were careful to show their respect for the military, forming human chains around Army vehicles to prevent any incident from undermining their refrain that "the Army and the people are one hand." And, as one key protest leader, Wael Ghonim, told 60 Minutes on Sunday, Feb. 13, they benefited greatly from the regime's own "stupid[ity]" -- its panic-driven shut-off of the Internet, its resort to tried-and-true tactics like hiring thugs to do its dirty work, and its failure to offer any meaningful alternative path to change.

KHALED DESOUKI/AFP/Getty Images

 

Blake Hounshell is managing editor of Foreign Policy.

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 SUBJECTS: EGYPT

TAWFIKH

5:50 AM ET

February 15, 2011

With all due respect

As one of the 6 to 8 million that took part of the revolution, and a person that was following the news on TV and twitter, I can tell you that Obama did not help Egypt at all. If anything, his "fluid" decisions made clear that his external methodologies are extremely weak. His threat to cut the 1.3 billion of USAID was immediately countered with a Saudi replacement of that AID. His "strategic balancing" as you said was a disgrace to what American policies preach. You should not promote democracy when its only convenient.
Finally, I would like to thank the American and Canadian supporters of Democracy and the Egyptian people during the revolution.

PS. I read Robert Gibbs' resume: "excellent at saying nothing"

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DEFACTO1

3:13 PM ET

February 19, 2011

Support for Egypt

Speaking on behalf of the many supporters in Scotland we wish the people of Egypt every success in their pursuit of a lasting freedom and the right to choose their own destiny, I also agree with your comments regarding the hypocrisy of the American administration,
Good Luck

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NICOLAS19

7:47 AM ET

February 15, 2011

Obama tries to take credit for everything

The second one is a joke. All the major officials - Clinton, Biden, Wisner - have started off unconditionally supporting Mubarak, calling his regime stable, insisting that he should stay in power. When he was beginning to lose it, the US administration quickly changed tone, urging BOTH sides to do nothing. When Mubarak was deposed they suddenly became revolutionaries.

You call this "strategic balancing". I'd call it time-serving, and BS. Obama refused to take a position, so he deserves none.

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THE GLOBALIZER

2:42 PM ET

February 15, 2011

Yep.

Obama didn't screw it up too badly, but he certainly looked like a 500 pound ballerina out there.

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XTIANGODLOKI

2:09 PM ET

February 15, 2011

What's the percentage of facebook users in Egypt?

I read that Egypt has something like 20% internet users among its most educated population groups. What is the percentage of facebook users?

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OL60280

2:59 PM ET

February 15, 2011

Facebook was the Catalyst

And that was the most critical part , The Millions of Egyptian who turned up After the first days were not facebook users but they have all triggered by the Facebook groups , So Yes Indeed facebook defeated Mubarak.

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NICOLAS19

11:01 AM ET

February 16, 2011

I doubt it

The whole country has 20% internet coverage. Let's assume that a tenth of that populace is registered on facebook (naturally it's not as widespread as in the US) and another tenth has seen the revolutionary messages there. That means 160.000 people in the whole country of 80.000.000. The internet was shut down the second day of the revolution, and it continued without a hiccup for two whole weeks. Hardly a catalyst.

I understand that the slogans of Facebook-revolution or Twitter-revolution are appealing to the US online media, because it makes a great title, and gives something to the tech-savvy readers to rejoice about. It even gives an impression as if the US had some influence in the happenings by means of technology. It did not. Come on, revolutions have occurred long before even electricity was invented, they didn't need a catalyst like that.

Naturally, there have been the occasional Facebook groups and tweets of some guys who claimed to be part of the popular movement (still no proof that they actually were). The media took them and pictured them as if they were something defining, just because it sounds so good. It is just like when one Afghan man says he enjoys the US occupation, the whole media becomes full of it and the whole thing resonates among the readers as if everything went great. Pure manipulation.

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CAPTBOBALOU

9:46 PM ET

February 18, 2011

Lets assume <1% of the people who ...

were part of the demonstration helped to organize where to show up, how to get there, inform people about what they could expect once they got there, and inform folks about what they could expect to accomplish.

I strongly suspect, without any evidence, that these organizers were monitoring Facebook, Twitter, and a myriad other sites and services to feed into their OODA loop.

To paraphrase Gen. Zinni, "Facebook is just another aspect of the battlefield."

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FP101

4:06 PM ET

February 15, 2011

Assistance

You would think both Tunisia and Egypt could use some technical assistance on the transition to Democracy and to reduce the potential disorder alluded to.

Surely the Army are not best placed and don't have expertise to oversee an economy, social structures and get appropriate state institutions and governance in place for an election whilst maintaining security.

But the people are very proud and may not accept external help. Moreover who would be credible in assisting?

Visible US help would likely create a backlash, strengthen anti-American elements, and would raise suspicions globally owing to the US never failing to put its own short-term interests ahead of others', of multi-lateral wider gains or of morality. Moreover the US is poor at foreign policy owing to its narrow-minded brainwashing style of education and public discourse. You can rely on America to do the right thing....after it has exhausted all other options, as Churchill said.

No doubt the US-led institutions of the IMF and World Bank will be on the scene quickly offering advice to quickly structurally adjust the economy. But we have seen the result of their policies in South America, Africa, Russia and the Asian crisis, and anyway their advice has contributed to the widening inequalities seen in Tunisia and Egypt over the last 5 years and more.

The UK and France have a poor history with Egypt given the colonial past and Suez so perhaps should not be surprised if they are not called upon.

China has a non-interference policy and together with Russia are still not big into freedom and openness.

So that exhausts the UN security council perm 5 and worlds main governance institutions. Hmmph...a pity that the World hasn't developed the capacity to help countries through periods of dislocation. Lets hope the next Hegemon uses its time as leading power more thoughtfully and less selfishly.

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KIWIB

7:34 PM ET

February 15, 2011

Useful tool? sure. Final cause, or catalyst? No

The use of Facebook in the events in Egypt was important, sure. Any sort of meaningful change needs a way to get the word out, and reliable lines of communication. But at the end of the day, a way to get the word out is, at best, what Facebook provided.

As the article states, the changes came about as a result of many many things, not the least of which was the genuine desire of the people to see change. Without this, all the publicity in the world doesn't mean a thing. The useful tools provided by social media don't mean a thing if there's no one to use them.

Facebook didn't spark these events. The people of Egypt sparked events on Facebook. To suggest otherwise does them a disservice.

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BASSEMTAHA

7:57 PM ET

February 15, 2011

please come again

to all tourists that left Egypt recently
plz come again Egypt was closed for repair
and it's safe and free
plz come again to see the new EGYPT

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FUSHICHOU

2:35 AM ET

February 16, 2011

You forgot #6 for your list of myths

MYTH #6: "What we witnessed was a popular social revolution"

No. What we witnessed was the military regime, which has been in control of modern-day Egypt since the coup in 1952 that brought Nasser into power, co-opt the legitimate vitriol the Egyptian street had for Mubarak as a convenient means to push him out. If the 300,000 or so protestors around Tahrir square had been calling for the ouster of the (military led) REGIME, and not just Mubarak, you would have seen a *very* different response from the military than the passive bystanding that was displayed during the past few weeks.

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ADHAM

7:18 PM ET

February 26, 2011

Not true

First of all the main demand was/still the ouster of the regime, not just Mubarak, and we will keep the pressure until we achieve that goal.
Secondly; The Egyptian army had no choice but to take the people's side, they stood in the middle for 2 weeks gave Mubarak time to take control of the situation and he failed so they had to tell him it's to go
This is why it is so different from 1952, when the Egyptian army ousted king Farouk and was supported by the people, this time it was the opposite; the people moved and were supported by the army
so the answer to your question "What we witnessed was a popular social revolution" is YES

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CEREBRAL SAYLOR

9:20 AM ET

February 17, 2011

America's Middle East Policies

The recent events in Egypt have shown that United States' policies in the Greater Middle East region is very faulty as it lacks sustainable foundations.One lesson from America's mishandling of the Egyptian Revolution is that US foreign policy in the Arab Middle East, center around families rather than on sustainable democratic institutions. Instead of building solidarity and friendship around the democratic system to ensure durability and avoid the transience of power and its aftermath as witnessed in Shah's Iran and, now, Mubarak's Egypt. America's democratic attitude to the Middle East is more like fire brigade approach to issues ofpertaining to democratization and good governance in the region. Must it always require the fall of a dictator, supported by the US, for the it(US) to realize that democracy was a better alternative in such society(ies)? In the end, as was the case with Shah Pahlevi's Iran, the US is the loser. Mubarak was a high-handed despot and absolute leader for thirty decades, and no genuine word about democratization of Egypt surfaced from America. Does such self-serving silence suggest that so long a dictator friendly to the US was in power in any society, such society did not require democracy?Can the US policymakers learn from its recent Egypt experiment and/or experience, and chart a new course for US foreign policy in the region? Regrettably, a cursory look at US policies and relations with the states in the Middle East shows that it is centered on and around individuals and families at the detriment of institutions.Were a revolution to sweep across the region suddenly, America will be left with no friends.America's 'friends' in the region are the decadent ruling classes who, like America itself, are very unpopular amongst the famous "Arab Street."

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MARCORAGA

11:54 AM ET

February 21, 2011

Egyptians defeated Mubarak

The importance of Facebook is overestimated.
Revolutions have always existed and nobody needed a social network

Alex
assicurazione auto

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AUSTINMAR

1:32 AM ET

March 7, 2011

The recent events in Egypt

The recent events in Egypt have shown that United States' policies in the Greater Middle East region is very faulty Redirect Virus as it lacks sustainable foundations.

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