POMED Notes: “Bahrain on Edge”
April 28th, 2011 by Naureen
On Tuesday, the United States Institute of Peace, the National Democratic Institute, the Solidarity Center, and Human Rights Watch hosted a live video-conference with senior representatives of the Bahraini opposition including: Khalil Almarzooq, a leading member of the Al Wefaq Islamic National Society and its bloc’s official spokesperson; Dr. Muneera Fakhro, parliamentary member and senior leader of the leftist Wa’ad party; Mohammed Al Maskati, head of the Bahrain Youth Center for Human Rights; and Sayed Hadi al-Musawi, a Bahraini human rights activist. The event was moderated by Steven Heydemann, Senior Vice President and Special Adviser to the Center for Conflict Management at the U.S. Institute of Peace and Leslie Campbell, NDI’s senior associate and regional director for the Middle East and North Africa.
To read full notes continue below, or click here for pdf.
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Posted in Bahrain, Civil Society, Corruption, DC Event Notes, Democracy Promotion, Egypt, Freedom, Gulf, Gulf Cooperation Council, Human Rights, Islamist movements, Libya, Protests, Reform, Saudi Arabia, Sectarianism, Syria, Tunisia, United Nations, US foreign policy, Yemen, Youth | Comment »
Yemen Update: GCC-Saleh Resignation Deal in Danger
April 28th, 2011 by Alec
In response to Wednesday violence in which plainclothes gunmen killed 12 anti-government protesters in Sana’a, Yemeni opposition said it may back out of the GCC deal it had previously agreed to if the government continued to use violence against protesters. In a statement directed at President Ali Abdullah Saleh the opposition coalition said: “In the event of your inability to protect protesters, we will find ourselves unable to pursue an agreement that the regime seeks to use to shed more blood.” Saleh himself also began raising objections to the deal on Thursday saying he would not sign it if Qatari representatives were present in Riyadh: “We will have reservations about signing if representatives of Qatar are present among the Gulf foreign ministers. [...](Qatar) is involved in a conspiracy not just against Yemen but against all Arab countries.”
Posted in Gulf Cooperation Council, Protests, Qatar, Reform, Yemen | Comment »
Yemen: Resignation Deal to Be Signed May 1, Youth Movement Sidelined
April 28th, 2011 by Alec
The Economist writes that the resignation deal for Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, brokered by Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council, will be signed on May 1st. The deal requires Saleh to hand over power to his vice president who will run a unity government for one month before Saleh officially resigns. After his resignation new presidential elections will be held in 60 days time. The deal, which was accepted by Yemen’s opposition parties, has created a rift in the opposition movement as some fear that the deal will simply mean a power transfer between regime members. Saleh and his family’s promised immunity from prosecution also remains an unpopular provision of the deal.
Nadia Al-Sakkaf, writing for the Arab Reform Bulletin, describes how the youth movement in Yemen which started the uprising against the Saleh regime has been marginalized and co-opted by the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP), Yemen’s official opposition coalition. The presence of hardline Islamists from the Islah party (which is part of the JMP) in the protest movement initially caused some youth activists to distance themselves from the protests. The general lack of organizational skills and abilities among the youth activists has also ensured that they have not been represented at recent high level talks in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. Al-Sakkaf accuses the JMP parties of riding the wave of popular protests to obtain power while trying to simultaneously marginalize the youth movement politically: “Unless youth groups unify and define their goals and their role in the transitional phase quickly, they might find that the past few months will turn out to have been simply a waste of time and human lives.”
Posted in Gulf Cooperation Council, Political Parties, Protests, Reform, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Youth | Comment »
CNN Asks Experts to Comment on Future of “Arab Spring”
April 26th, 2011 by Naureen
Given the uncertainty surrounding events in the Middle East, CNN.com asked five experts to address how the “Arab Spring” will play out in the coming months. Ibrahim Sharqieh, deputy director of the Brookings Doha Center, states that in the coming months we will see a new paradigm for political transition in the Middle East as dictators use more forceful means to quell popular uprisings. Nader Hashemi notes the misnomer of ”Arab Spring” given the differing internal dynamics of the countries, but notes that the days are numbered for Arab dictators. Parag Khanna, senior research fellow with the New America Foundation, argues that the region is likely to remain volatile especially in Egypt during the lead up to parliamentary elections and in Bahrain where the government has suppressed the opposition instead of addressing its concerns. He also notes the role the International Monetary Fund and the Gulf countries can play in supporting structural economic modernization throughout the region.
Julie Taylor, a political scientist at the RAND Corp., stated that in the next six months, we will likely see regime change in Yemen and Libya. Taylor also notes the Syrian armed forces commitment to President Bashar al-Assad and the strong support the regime will likely receive from Iran for a mass crackdown. Feryal Cherif draws parallels between the events in Egypt and those in Syria where both leaders offered concessions in hopes of appeasing protesters, but tended to remain a step behind protesters’ demands. She notes, however, that Syria lacks the presence of a strong civil society and experience with activism, which will likely hinder their movement.
Posted in Bahrain, Civil Society, Democracy Promotion, Egypt, Elections, Gulf, Iran, Military, Protests, Reform, Syria, Tunisia, Yemen | Comment »
Yemen Update: Opposition Accepts GCC Plan
April 25th, 2011 by Naureen
On Monday, a Yemeni opposition source told Reuters that the opposition has fully accepted a plan created by the Gulf Cooperation Council for Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh to step down. The source also said that the opposition would participate in the transitional government. The plan, which transfers power to the Vice President and grants Saleh immunity, was initially rejected by the opposition who called for Saleh to step down immediately. Other members of the opposition rejected the plan with the demand that Saleh be prosecuted.
Posted in Democracy Promotion, Elections, Gulf Cooperation Council, Protests, Reform, Yemen | Comment »
Senator McCain Discusses Protest Movements Across the Middle East
April 25th, 2011 by Naureen
In an interview with The Cairo Review of Global Affairs, Senator John McCain (R-AZ) expressed his belief that the U.S. should resume its leadership of NATO operations in Libya, recognize the Transitional National Council as the “legitimate voice of the Libyan people,” and arm the rebels lest the situation turns into a stalemate which empowers al-Qaeda or Muammar Gadhafi‘s regime. He also called on President Barack Obama to formally declare that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has lost his legitimacy as a ruler by slaughtering his own people. However, he cautioned against calls for regime change as failure to secure regime change could hurt the United States’ credibility. He also stated his opposition to direct U.S. involvement in Syria noting that he does not see a way for the U.S. to help the opposition in any way other than through expressions of solidarity with the protesters.
Discussing Egypt, Senator McCain stressed the importance of ensuring a successful transition in Egypt given the regional importance of the country. He expressed his belief that the Supreme Military Council under the leadership of General Mohamed Tantawi has handled the transition “very well so far.” The Senator also expressed his concern over the situation in Yemen where it is unclear what will come next. McCain also noted the different situations and complexities in the various protest movements across the Middle East and also noted the impact it has had in places like China and Russia.
Posted in al-Qaeda, Bahrain, Civil Society, Corruption, Democracy Promotion, Egypt, EU, Foreign Aid, Freedom, Human Rights, Jordan, Libya, Military, Morocco, NATO, Protests, Reform, Syria, Tunisia, United Nations, US foreign policy, Yemen, Youth | Comment »
Yemen: Violence Continues Despite Weekend Resignation Deal
April 25th, 2011 by Alec
On Saturday, it was announced that GCC mediation efforts on the political crisis in Yemen had borne fruit: Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh said that he had agreed to the GCC plan for him to hand over power to his deputy in 30 days in exchange for immunity from prosecution. Protests against the Saleh regime have continued however as opposition protesters and leaders said that immunity for Saleh was unacceptable after his regime’s brutal and deadly crackdown on demonstrations. On Monday, security forces clashed with protesters in Taiz wounding dozens while at least two protesters were shot and killed in Sana’a. Injuries from bullet wounds have been reported at protests in the city of Ibb as well. Saleh has continued to refuse opposition demands he step down ‘immediately’ stating that he would not hand the country over to “insurrectionists.”
Posted in Protests, Reform, Yemen | Comment »
Sec. Clinton and Former Sec. Kissinger Discuss U.S. Foreign Policy and the Middle East
April 22nd, 2011 by Naureen
Speaking on Charlie Rose series, “Conversations on Diplomacy,” Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger discussed U.S. diplomatic efforts. Clinton highlighted the the new challenges facing U.S. foreign policy as the focus shifts away from state-to-state relationships to networks and multilateral relations and organizations. She also noted the implications of new technologies and new media. Kissinger noted the “huge changes” in state structure taking place across Europe, the Middle East and Asia. Even amongst all these changes, the United States continues to remain a dominant power in the world that countries across the world turn to for leadership and aid. Clinton stated however, that “one of our biggest foreign policy challenges right now is to get our own house in order…we have to consolidate our own economic and political position in order to be able to continue to influence events in the future.”
Discussing the “Arab Spring,” Secretary Kissinger stated that the revolutions are still unfolding, as such we must be cautious of being overly optimistic. He noted, however, that we must not be too hasty in judging the outcome of the uprisings based on the proclamations of a few and ensure real transitions occur. Clinton noted that it is U.S. interest “to see a peaceful, stable transition to a more representative form of government in which institutions are able to democratize over time.” She also noted the lack of economic growth and development in the region as a reason for the people’s frustrations. Clinton and Kissinger also discussed the threat of Iran and the country’s hope to take advantage of the instability in the region. Kissinger also stated that the situation in Libya is peripheral to the events in the broader Middle East.
Posted in Civil Society, Corruption, Democracy Promotion, Diplomacy, Egypt, Elections, Foreign Aid, Freedom, Gulf, Human Rights, Iran, Islam and Democracy, Jordan, Libya, Military, NATO, Protests, Reform, Syria, Tunisia, US foreign policy, Yemen | Comment »
Yemen: Protests Continue as Saleh Supports GCC Proposal
April 22nd, 2011 by Kyle
On Friday, thousands or protesters gathered in the streets of Sana’a and Taiz demanding Saleh’s departure following the release of a Gulf Cooperation Council transition plan. There was also a rally held in support of President Saleh, where he announced that he supported the GCC plan. Saleh said that his government “welcom[ed]” the GCC’s initiative, and that it would deal with it with “positively … within the framework of the Yemeni constitution.” The GCC proposed plan calls for a three-month transition that would end with a presidential election. According to the plan, a unity government led by the opposition would work to organize the presidential elections two months after Saleh’s departure. A special UN Security Council meeting was held and the group urged restraint and dialogue, but failed to agree on a public statement on how best to address the unrest in Yemen.
Photo courtesy of Reuters.
Posted in Diplomacy, Gulf Cooperation Council, United Nations, Yemen | Comment »
Scholars Discuss the Arab Spring in the Context of Lebanon’s 2005 Emancipation
April 21st, 2011 by Naureen
Last week, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy hosted an event entitled, “Lebanon Today: Internal Politics and the Arab Spring.” Speaking at the event were May Chidiac, president of MCF Media Institute; Michael Young, opinion editor for the Beirut Daily Star; Hisham Melhem, Washington bureau chief of Al-Arabiya; and Michael Doran, visiting professor at New York University’s Wagner School of Public Service.
May Chidiac noted how protests in the Arab world echo “the spirit of the Lebanese model” as they abandoned anti-Israel and anti-West rhetoric for legitimate demands of good governance, economic opportunities and political freedom. Chidiac also called for the U.S. and international community to support the March 14th movement. Michael Young discussed three lessons for the Arab Spring from Lebanon: first, that foreign intervention is often necessary for liberation movements to succeed; second, the liberation may clash with Western interests; and third, the importance of luck. Young discussed how many in the Arab world fail to acknowledge the importance of the 2005 emancipation as they see a weak Syria as advantageous to the West and Israel. Hisham Melham stated that the Arab Spring differs from the events in Lebanon in 2005 as they represent a social and political revolution rather than an emancipation from foreign occupation. He also notes the reversion to sectarianism in Lebanon. Melham also called on the Obama Administration to take a stronger stance on the situation in Syria. Melham along with Michael Doran argued that regime change in Syria could benefit the U.S. as it would improve dynamics with Lebanon, Palestine, Israel and Iraq.
Posted in Civil Society, Democracy Promotion, Egypt, Freedom, Hezbollah, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Lebanon, Libya, Military, Palestine, Protests, Reform, Syria, Tunisia, US foreign policy, Yemen | Comment »
Senator Rockefeller Calls for U.S. to Leave Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya
April 21st, 2011 by Naureen
On Tuesday, during a visit to the Charleston Gazette, Senator Jay Rockefeller (D-WV) called for increased scrutiny of the military budget and for the U.S. to immediately end operations in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya. “We should be out of Iraq this year altogether,” he said. “We are not going to win. It is not in the cards. Many Asian countries have a totally tribal culture. It is the same thing in Afghanistan, Libya and Yemen.”
Posted in Afghanistan, Congress, Democracy Promotion, Foreign Aid, Iraq, Libya, Military, US foreign policy, Yemen | Comment »
Yemen: 3 Protesters Killed and Hundreds Injured Ahead of UN Meeting
April 19th, 2011 by Kyle
On Tuesday, security forces opened fire on protesters in Taiz and Sana’a. One protester was killed in Taiz and two were killed in Sana’a as hundreds were injured in both cities. Al Jazeera reports that protesters were also throwing rocks at security forces and set fire to a car in Sana’a. It was also reported that some of the doctors who were helping wounded protesters were apprehended. The violence took place prior to a UN Security Council meeting that will be the first meeting at the council on the unrest taking place in Yemen. Germany’s special envoy said that the talks should be a strong signal to the country’s president that bloodshed must be avoided. ”The fact that the council meets today on Yemen sends an important signal by the international community: the negotiations should not stall and further bloodshed has to be avoided,” Peter Wittig, Germany’s UN ambassador, said.
Posted in Human Rights, Military, Protests, Yemen | Comment »
Yemen: New Bloc Formed By GPC Defectors
April 19th, 2011 by Ali
Former ministers and members of the parliament who had deserted President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s General People’s Congress (GPC) in protest of the government’s response to protests formed a new political group, the Justice and Building (or Development) Bloc. It includes former minister of tourism Nabil Al Faqih, minister of human rights, Huda Al Baan, and transport minister Khaled Al Wazir, in addition to former GPC politburo member Mohammed Abu Lahum, the new bloc’s leader, among others. The party is calling for Saleh’s immediate removal from power.
Posted in Political Parties, Protests, Yemen | Comment »
Yemen Update: Weekend Protests, Women Deride Saleh
April 18th, 2011 by Ali
On Saturday, thousands of Yemeni women protested in Sana’a. Many of them wearing niqabs and boasting affiliation with the Islamist opposition, they derided comments by President Ali Abdullah Saleh who called their mixing with men in the street protests “haram.” Juan Cole writes that Saleh’s comments were part of an attempt to drive a wedge between women and Islamists. It also demonstrates the limits of his “state feminism,” which while raising women’s literacy, education, and employment opportunities is still “patronizing and partriarchal.”
Posted in Political Islam, Protests, Women, Women's Rights, Yemen | Comment »
Yemen: Negotiating a Timetable for Saleh’s Exit; Rifts Over Prosecution
April 18th, 2011 by Ali
Yesterday, Yassin Saeed Noman, the leader of the Joint Meeting Parties and three other opposition leaders were slated to travel to Riyadh to meet with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). There, they were to discuss the timetable of a draft agreement from earlier this month which calls for President Ali Abdullah Saleh to transfer presidential powers to his deputy and leave office. It also gives him and his family immunity from prosecution. Senior Yemeni officials reported that the United States, European Union and GCC are pushing for Saleh to “hand over his powers immediately and formally leave office within the next three months.”
At an event earlier this month, the National Democratic Institute’s Les Cambell remarked that there was a rift between the traditional opposition and the youth protesters over the extent of their demands, including bringing Saleh to trial. Ali al-Jaradi, a spokesperson of the al-Tagheer Square protesters, criticized Saudi Arabia’s mediating role, citing the kingdom’s part in installing President Saleh in power in 1978.
Posted in Diplomacy, Gulf Cooperation Council, Protests, Public Opinion, US foreign policy, Yemen, Youth | Comment »
Yemen: Maps of Conflict/Crisis
April 15th, 2011 by Alec
The following map shows the spread of al-Qaeda influence, the Houthi rebellion in the north, and the southern separatist movement based in Aden and the southern provinces.
This map shows areas where major protests have been taking place particularly in the capital Sana’a, Taiz, Hudaida, Ibb, Marib, and Aden.
Posted in Protests, Yemen | Comment »
Yemen: Saleh Calls for Dialogue While Protesters Demand His Exit
April 15th, 2011 by Kyle
On Friday, Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh addressed a rally of his supporters and called on the opposition movement to join in dialogue: “We call on the opposition to consult their consciences and come to dialogue and reach an agreement for security and stability of the country.” The opposition has set a two week deadline for Saleh’s departure following their refusal of a Saudi brokered deal backed by the Gulf Cooperation Council. Protesters took to the streets in Taiz, Aden, and Sana’a continuing to call on Saleh to step down. Seven people were injured when security forces fired live ammunition at tens of thousands of protesters gathered in Taiz. An electric power plant was attacked by tribesman causing outages across the country as clerical and tribal leaders came out in opposition to Saleh’s constitutional legitimacy.
Posted in Gulf Cooperation Council, Human Rights, Protests, Reform, Saudi Arabia, Yemen | Comment »
Yemen: Photo of Protester
April 15th, 2011 by Kyle
A Yemeni girl paints the word “go” with henna in her hands.
Posted in Protests, Yemen | Comment »
Can Yemen’s Opposition Remain United?
April 13th, 2011 by Alec
Charles Schmitz, writing for Foreign Policy, comments that Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, through his continued refusal to step down and his brutal crackdown on protesters, has shattered his ‘divide and conquer’ strategy that has kept him in power for over three decades. Yemen’s opposition consists of various and disparate groups: ‘official’ opposition parties under the banner of the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP), portions of the military loyal to renegade General Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, Houthi rebels in the north, and southern separatists (Hirak). Saleh had previously been able to play many of these various elements off one another by entering into strategic alliance with different elements, he states.. This strategy led to Yemen’s 1994 civil war. Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, one of the Houthi leaders, warns that the longer Saleh remains, the more opportunity he will have to try an exploit natural fault lines within the opposition. However, the opposition has managed to coordinate between groups that were, not long ago, killing one another. The question is whether or not they can institutionalize this coordination and figure out how to strike a balance between regional autonomy and a central state, says Schmitz.
Posted in Protests, Reform, Yemen | Comment »
Yemen: GCC Proposal Rejected by Protesters
April 12th, 2011 by Kyle
On Tuesday, tens of thousands of Yemeni’s took to the streets in protest of mediation proposal by the Gulf Cooperation Council. The protests took place because the plan offers President Ali Abdullah Saleh immunity from prosecution. The mediation proposal called on Saleh to transfer power to his deputy, but gives no specific timeframe for him to leave office. It also included immunity from prosecution for Saleh and his family. “The initiative does not clearly mention the immediate departure of the head of the regime and it did not touch on the fate of his relatives who are at the top military and security agencies that continue killing the peaceful protesters,” the anti-government Civil Alliance of the Youth Revolution, which represents 30 youth groups, said in a statement. The proposal has been accepted by President Saleh.
Posted in Civil Society, Gulf Cooperation Council, Protests, Reform, Yemen, Youth | Comment »
