Writing at his CFR blog, Steven Cook discusses the Bahraini government’s unwillingness to enact serious political reform. He notes that the promulgation of a new constitution in 2002 and the consequent reinstatement of parliament did not lead to substantial reform. Cook points to the banning of political parties (although “political societies” have been permitted) and the harassment and arrest of human rights activists as evidence. He notes however that the Crown Prince Salman should be given credit for his attempt to resolve sectarian tensions through the “Bahrainization” of the work force, with the hopes of increasing employment opportunities for the Shi’a majority and give them “a stake in the system.” He notes, however, that such an approach highlights the “fundamental mistake that Middle Eastern leaders have long made by emphasizing economic solution to political problems.” The protests in the region he says are about freedom and basic human rights, not economic grievances.
On Tuesday, the United States Institute of Peace, the National Democratic Institute, the Solidarity Center, and Human Rights Watch hosted a live video-conference with senior representatives of the Bahraini opposition including: Khalil Almarzooq, a leading member of the Al Wefaq Islamic National Society and its bloc’s official spokesperson; Dr. Muneera Fakhro, parliamentary member and senior leader of the leftist Wa’ad party; Mohammed Al Maskati, head of the Bahrain Youth Center for Human Rights; and Sayed Hadi al-Musawi, a Bahraini human rights activist. The event was moderated by Steven Heydemann, Senior Vice President and Special Adviser to the Center for Conflict Management at the U.S. Institute of Peace and Leslie Campbell, NDI’s senior associate and regional director for the Middle East and North Africa.
To read full notes continue below, or click here for pdf.
The U.S. Commission on Religious Freedom’s advisory board has added Egypt to its list of “countries of particular concern.” Commission Chair Leonard Leo has stated that Egypt has experienced “severe religious freedom violations” both before and after the fall of Hosni Mubarak. He noted that violence against Egyptian Copts has continued “unabated” despite the recent revolution and that the interim government is not bringing the perpetrators of such violence to justice. Despite the Commission’s listing, the State Department has not listed Egypt on its own list of “countries of particular concern,” a designation that could entail economic sanctions.
Sean Kane, writing at Foreign Policy, examines the overlooked tensions that have been simmering in Iraq since waves of popular unrest have swept across the Middle East. Recently, the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) deployed units of the Peshmerga, the Kurdish regional security forces, south of Kirkuk following popular protests there in February. The KRG is worried about anti-Kurdish sentiments in the ethnically diverse city and has reportedly deployed, according to Kane, a disproportionate force of 12,000 troops along with small and medium artillery. Such actions have previously led to tensions between the central government in Baghdad and the KRG producing standoffs between the Iraqi Army and Peshmerga. The U.S. has implemented the Combined Security Mechanism (CSM) with aims to greater integration and cooperation between the two forces and the U.S. military. Despite the CSM however, tensions clearly remain, alludes Kane. Denials by Iraqi Prime Minister Nour al-Maliki of his consent to the recent deployment and subsequent demand that Peshmerga forces return to their base north of the city, once again complicate U.S. strategy as it prepares to withdraw its forces.
Egypt’s military-led transitional government has decided to “freeze” for three months the appointment of Emad Mikhail, a Christian and former police officer who was appointed as governor of Qena province this month, The concession was made in order to assuage a week’s worth of protests. Protesters are also taking issue with the appointment of former policemen as governors in two other provinces. In Qena, some protesters have declared their refusal to be governed by a Christian. In spite of the announcement, about one thousand protesters are continuing until Mikhail appointment is canceled.
Nabih Berri, Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, has said he is optimistic that Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati’s new cabinet will be officially formed shortly after the Easter holiday. The speaker said that most of the “thorny issues” has been resolved and that negotiations were focusing on “final touches.” The formation of a new government has been in a three month long deadlock with political infighting over specific cabinet portfolios and Christian representation in the cabinet. The new cabinet will have 30 ministerial posts, nine of which will be shared by Hezbollah, the Amal Movement, and the Hezbollah led March 8 movement.
Al Hayat editor Ghassan Charbelwrote an op-ed on Wednesday, lamenting that in spite of its own history of liberal freedoms, Lebanon has been inactive in the Arab Spring. He writes, “How Lebanon seems to be a failure today in the face of the Arab revolutions, the dreams of change, others heading toward the future or the search for it…” He points to a recent meeting between Maronite leaders as indicative of a potential social reconciliation, which would be necessary for any national democratic movement.
Karen Leigh, writing at the Atlantic, articulates that the world has been privy to the reality of government sponsored violence and human rights abuses in Bahrain, but Bahraini citizens have not. Leigh asserts that there has been a clamp down on foreign press within the kingdom which has led to a monopoly by the state run television. “The narrative the government wants to put across, which is powerful, is that this is a sectarian conflict, different than what happened in Egypt and Tunisia. And the vehicle it chose to do that with is BTV, because it’s the only thing it had in its arsenal,” said Ali Al-Saffar, Middle East economist. The state run TV, according to Leigh, has planted weapons alongside protesters, faked footage of violence against police officers, and out rightly denied any use of violence by the government against protesters or those associated with the opposition. Leigh reports that officials from al-Wefaq, the Bahraini opposition party, have told her that they are “worried about similarities between BTV’s rhetoric and that of the Hutu radio stations that rallied Rwandan Hutus to slaughter their Tutsi brethren 17 years ago.” Leigh argues that there is a growing tide within Bahrain that the foreign media is lying about events taking place there which is increasing state TV viewership and anti-Shi’a public opinions. The long term effects of this shift are not entirely clear, but Leigh argues that in the short term Shi’ites will continue to be targeted by state security with greater support from the Bahraini public.
On Friday, the Center for the Study of Islam and Democracy (CSID) held their 12th Annual Conference under the theme “Tunisia’s and Egypt’s Revolutions and Transitions to Democracy.” CSID President Radwan Masmoudi opened the conference by giving special attention to discerning real and fake stability and development in Egypt and Tunisia.
The first panel, chaired by George Washington University Visiting Scholar and Program Committee Chair for the event, Radwan Ziadeh, was entitled “The Jasmine Revolution’ and Transition to Democracy in Tunisia: Why and How?” Jaloul Ayed, the Tunisian Minister of Finance, opened the panel following a brief introduction by Tunisian Ambassador Mohamed Saleh Tekaya.
Continue reading below, or click here for the pdf.
Nawaf Obaid, senior fellow at the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies, says that reports of the downfall of the Saudi monarchy as “inevitable” are grossly exaggerated. The speculation that mass uprising will reach Saudi Arabia is based entirely on casual perusal of Facebook pages calling for protests, he says : “17,000 Facebook fans or ‘protesters’ do not necessarily translate into 17,000 Saudi rioters [...] One cannot forecast events based on a count of virtual fans at a social network. ” Obaid also argues that the following “nightmare scenario” of the country’s oil infrastructure being crippled thus sending the world into devastating crisis is unlikely as the government has state of the art security systems to protect its overall energy security. Notions that the Kingdom’s energy security is threatened by the restive Shia in its eastern provinces is a “mistaken impression” based on false reports that the Shia represent the majority in these areas. Over two million Sunni Saudis and foreign workers have relocated to these areas in search of economic opportunities depriving the Shi’ites of a statistical majority. Ultimately: “Fears about Saudi stability verge on the irrational [...]The kingdom has long been, and will probably long remain, the most stable and secure provider of energy in the world.”
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has issued a decree granting up to 150,000 Kurds living in eastern Syria citizenship. Many Kurds are currently registered as foreigners due to previous census results. Kurdish leader Habib Ibrahim said that the decree would not stop Kurdish Syrians from pressing for more civil rights and democratic reforms: “Our cause is democracy for the whole of Syria. Citizenship is the right of every Syrian. It is not a favour. It is not the right of anyone to grant.” Assad has also released 48 Kurdish prisoners that had been sitting in jail for over a year and has recently met with Kurdish regional leaders. Kurds in Syria regularly complain of state discrimination against their communities.
Update/Background: In the October 1962 census, about 20% of the Kurdish population of Syria was stripped of its status as Syrian citizens, which at the time numbered about 120,000 Kurds. These Kurds were registered as “foreigners” by the Syrian state. According to POMED’s sources, the estimated number of Syrian Kurds without citizenship may number as high as 200-250,000. Without citizenship, political rights and freedom of movement are greatly restricted. ”Foreign” Kurds carry red identity cards that prevent them from leaving the country as they cannot apply for passports. The government also tramples on their ownership rights and actively prevents Kurds from participating in the public sector as well as restricts cultural rights to speak Kurdish freely and openly and observe Kurdish cultural holidays and events.
Defense Secretary Robert M. Gatesmet with King Abdullah in Riyadh to discuss a $60 billion arms deal and the threat of Iran. American officials would not state whether Gates would criticize Abdullah for sending troops into Bahrain. “The Saudis,” however, “believe that the Shiite uprising next door in Bahrain might encourage a similar revolt by Saudi Arabia’s own Shiite minority population, a concern that the Obama administration does not dispute.” The US wants Bahrain’s political system to better represent its Shi’a majority. Underscoring these fears, Iran’s Ayatollah Ahmad Khatamicalled for Bahraini protestors to resist the monarchy. Academics have questioned the supposed zero-sum game between supporting the rights of Bahraini Shi’as and maintaining stable relations with a US Naval base host. They do so by minimizing the sectarian character of unrest, dismissing the allegiances of Bahraini Shi’as to Iran and proposing that income from the proposed US base expansion be distributed amongst the population.
Bilal Y. Saab, writing for The National Interest, argues that a collapse of the regime would have ripple effects across the Middle East and the country’s network of external relations could collapse. He outlines two ways in which a post-Assad Syria could develop. On the positive side, Syrian intervention in Lebanese politics could essentially be eliminated along with its support for Hezbollah. This would significantly weaken Hezbollah he argues. The collapse of the Assad regime could also deprive Hamas of a political base in Damascus. This development could help spur the stalled Peace Process between Israel and the Palestinians, he posits. There could also be a regional power balance shift as a Sunni Syrian leadership may opt for terminating its partnership with Iran which would create an arc of Sunni states in the region which would greater serve U.S. interests. Furthermore, a democratic Syria could help security and stability in Iraq.
On the negative side, regime collapse could lead to sectarian conflict which could spread to neighboring countries and destabilize the whole region. This is particularly worrisome in Lebanon where the specter of armed sectarian conflict is never far from the surface. If Syrian Kurds start to demand autonomy, the Turkish military may feel the need to get involved. Saab also states that a new government in Syria could be dominated by a more militant and assertive group of Syrian nationalists that are determined to wrest the Golan Heights back from Israel. The Syrian branch of the Muslim brotherhood, being more radical and extreme than its Egyptian counterpart, could invite al-Qaeda to “set up shop” in the country. Saab indicates that the best outcome that would serve U.S. interests best would be for Bashar al-Assad to dismantle his regime but remain in power.
On Tuesday, the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) held a discussion for the release of the new IFES desk study entitled “Duality by Design: The Iranian Electoral System,” which provides insight to the “rules of the game” for Iran’s electoral politics. The event was moderated by John D. Lawrence, Congressional Affairs Manager at IFES, who made opening remarks and introduced panelists: Yasmin Alem, author of the desk study; Andrew Reynolds, elections expert and associate professor at University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill; and Barbara Slavin, non-resident senior fellow at Atlantic Council.
To read full notes, continue below or click here for pdf.
As part of a Jadaliyya Roundtable, editors of the blog asked analysts Steven Heydemann, Fred Lawson, David Lesch and Patrick Seale to respond to a series of questions on the current situation in Syria. In part two of the roundtable, contributors were asked to respond to the following question: ”What do you consider to be missing or exaggerated in the discussion/writings/policy on the Syrian uprisings?”
In response, Heydemann states that the current debate in Washington seems to reflect revived dreams of “‘flipping’ Syria through regime change, and re-defining the regional balance of power in ways that would work decisively to America’s advantage.” They ignore, however, the realities of what democratic transition in Syria would look like. He calls for a long-term approach in which the U.S. helps develop the capacity of the Syrian opposition and also noted Syria’s history of republican government in the 1940s and 1950s. Lawson notes that many have seemed to ignore reports that protests began in these small towns not due to local grievances and not grievances against the regime. He also questions the role of economic strain of the drought and industrial, commercial and agricultural circumstances as drivers of protests. Lesch notes the exclusive coverage of the extreme anti-government groups and pro-government groups, and states that in reality it will be the silent majority — including different elite groups — that will determine the course. Seale argues that analysts have ignored the mind-set of Bashar Al Assad who feels a sense of pride for enduring “the many crises he has had to deal with in his decade of power” and the legitimacy he has gained for his anti-Israel and anti-West sentiments. He stated in his speech that he had other priorities to be concerned with such as stability and protection of citizens and apologized for failing to enact reform.
Bahrain’s main Shi’ite opposition party al-Wefaq has stated that security forces have recently stepped up their campaign to arrest activists and Shi’ites in the country. The party puts the number already arrested at 302 people and expects that number to reach 400 soon if the rate of arrests continue. An influential Bahraini internet activists has reportedly been arrested. Mahmood al-Yousif runs several websites including Just Bahraini, an anti-sectarian website that advocates for Sunni/Shi’ite cooperation, and Mahmood’s Den, which is an information portal for other bloggers. He reportedly tweeted on March 29th that he had been arrested and the arrest has been confirmed by his son and brother.
On Monday, President Barack Obama gave a speech outlining current and future U.S. policy in Libya and in the region. He began by stating that the U.S. is always reluctant to use force to solve “the world’s many challenges”, however, he stated, “when our interests and values are at stake, we have a responsibility to act.” Beginning with an arms embargo, sanctions, asset freezes, and work at the U.N. Security Council, Obama argued that the U.S. used all diplomatic means in an effort to curb the violence, but Muammar Gadhafi continued to persist and declared to show “no mercy” to the people of Libya.
Rather than letting a massacre occur in Benghazi, he stated that the U.S. and international partners mobilized forces to institute a no-fly zone, attack strategic military sights, and ultimately protect Libyan civilians. President Obama highlighted that in the 1990′s “when people were being brutalized in Bosnia” it took over a year to intervene to protect civilians and in Libya it took only 31 days. NATO will take the lead on the continued military work within Libya, on Wednesday of this week, which Obama asserts demonstrates the fulfillment of his goal to transition the U.S. military out of a leading role quickly. He continued: “The transition to a legitimate government that is responsive to the Libyan people will be a difficult task,“ but stated that it would be up to the U.S. and the international community to assist this transition. In regards to the rest of the region he stated: “There are places, like Egypt, where this change will inspire us and raise our hopes,“ but he also warned that sectarian violence must be averted in the hopes of addressing the political and economic concerns of the Arab World. In closing he stated: “Born, as we are, out of a revolution by those who longed to be free, we welcome the fact that history is on the move in the Middle East and North Africa, and that young people are leading the way.”
Nicholas Kristoff, writing for The New York Times,argues that the excessive and brutal Gadhafi-style crackdown in Bahrain, the use of military force and foreign troops/mercenaries, highlights the sectarian nature of the conflict. Sunni Muslims who rule the country as a minority are now “systematically trying to crush an overwhelmingly Shiite protest movement.” Kristoff also charges the U.S. ally with being, “something like an apartheid state.” Despite having a generally prosperous and “dynamic” society, “an oasis of moderation” in comparison to states like Iran and Saudi Arabia, the country remains segregated between Sunni and Shi’ite. The former enjoy better neighborhood infrastructure and access to military and police jobs. Kristoff contends that radicalization and violence was unnecessary in Bahrain as the king could have met some of the protesters’ demands – most of whom would have likely accepted a compromise move to “Jordanian or Moroccan -style constitutional monarchy.”
Al-Jazeera reports that about 1,000 Saudi troops have entered Bahrain to help guard government facilities after weeks of unrest and protest. Other Gulf states have also reportedly contributed troops to the stabilization effort as a larger Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) deployment after a request from the Bahraini government. Secretary-General of the GCC, Abdul Rahman al-Attiyah, said that ensuring security and stability in any Gulf country was the responsibility of the whole block. The Bahraini opposition, including the Shi’ite party al-Wefaq, have stated that any military intervention by the GCC nations would be considered a declaration of war and a foreign occupation.
Update: United Arab Emirates Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, speaking during a press conference with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clintonaddressed the UAE’s decision to send troops to Bahrain, stating, “the Bahrain Government asked us yesterday to look at ways to help them to defuse the tension in Bahrain, and we have already sent roughly around 500 of our police force, who are there. The Saudis are there as well. There are other Gulf countries which are (inaudible) to support the Bahraini Government and to get calm and order in Bahrain and to help both the Bahraini Government and people to reach to a solution which is for the best for the Bahraini people.”
Thirteen people died on Tuesday during deadly sectarian clashes. Egyptian Copts were protesting an arson attack on a church south of Cairo that occurred on Saturday. They were confronted by an angry crowd of Muslims and the two groups clashed for about four hours. Mohamed ElBaradei condemned the attack on the church stating that the attack violated the values of the January 25th revolution.
Pro-democracy demonstrators in Cairo’s Tahrir Square were attacked by men with knives and machetes on Wednesday. The attackers are thought to be supporters of the former Mubarak regime. TV footage showed both groups throwing rocks at each other. The military also clashed with protesters seeking to clear the square of the remaining protester encampments.
