Several analysts offer realist assessments of the potential pitfalls of ousting Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad. Hilal Khashan, professor of political science at the American University of Beirut, called it a “doomsday scenario” which would exacerbate geopolitical and sectarian tensions. The article explains that on the Israeli front, the Assad regime has “reliably not attempted” to take back Golan in forty years. Turkey will be concerned about the unrest spreading to the Kurds in the Syrian North. The Gulf States worry about a sectarian conflict with its Shia populations as well as confrontation with empowered Sunni Islamists, both of which could emerge in the wake of Assad. Iran, which has already been accused by the US administration for helping Syria put down the current protest movement, could intervene further on behalf of its chief Arab state ally. David Lesch, professor of Middle East history at Trinity University in Texas, adds that Iraq, which has only recently benefitted from Syrian cooperation in controlling the border, may descend back into chaos as the US attempts to withdraw by year’s end. Regardless of the character of the opposition, which the article also calls into question, chaos would likely take hold should Assad fall. This is because the army, an institution that has maintained order in the Egyptian and Tunisian transitions, is tied to the regime, as Joshua Landis of the University of Oklahoma and writer for the blog Syrian Comment, argues. A counter-argument is offered by Riad Kahwaji of the Dubai-based Institute for Gulf and Near East Military Analysis who argues that Syria’s record of supporting terrorist groups undermines any argument that the regime is a force of stability.
On Friday, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman John Kerry (D-MA) released a statement after President Barack Obama issued an Executive Order imposing economic sanctions against Syrian officials responsible for perpetuating human rights abuses. “Syrians are every bit as deserving of human rights and dignity as the Libyans, Tunisians, and Egyptians and the government should have met their protests with responsiveness not repression. That the government would continue to respond to the courage of its people with indiscriminate killing and the use of tanks in population centers is unacceptable…The status quo in Syria is unacceptable. What is clear is that we need to increase the political and economic pressure so President Assad understands that he must end the violence and embrace reforms.” He also lauded the U.N. Human Rights Council’s resolution condemning the violence and calling for a U.N. investigation. Kerry called for the international community to increase political pressure on the regime.
The U.N. Human Rights Council voted on Friday for a mission to be sent to Syria to investigate claims of human rights violations by the Syrian government against civilians. Twenty-six of the Council’s forty-seven member states called for the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights to dispatch the mission while nine states voted against. The Council requested a preliminary report and oral update to be submitted to its 17th session with a follow-up report on its 18th session. Kyung-wha Kang, the U.N. Deputy High Commissioner for Human Rights noted that Syria is a party to nearly all of the core international human rights treaties including the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights. Thus Ms. Kang reiterated that Syria: “[...]must ensure that the rights to life, liberty and security of person are protected in all circumstances, including in the context of efforts to maintain law and order.”
The United States on Friday imposed sanctions on Syrian regime officials, including Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s brother, Maher al-Assad. The presidential order issued by Barack Obama included a freezing of assets for named individuals and also included the entire directorate of Syrian intelligence and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, who stand accused of aiding the Syrian regime’s crackdown.
Security forces opened fire on protesters in Latakia on Friday wounding at least five people. About 1,000 people are reported to have turned our for demonstrations in the city against the Assad regime. Other demonstrations were reported in Banias and Qamishli. The government had warned against protests saying it had not granted permission for Friday demonstrations and claimed that such protests harmed Syrian security and stability. Many of the protests were solidarity marches for the city of Deraa in which 50 people died last week as a result of the government crackdown and siege of that city. Foreign media has been virtually banned from the country making reporting on events within Syria increasingly difficult.
Massive protests also erupted in Damascus on Friday in solidarity with the people of Deraa as demonstrated in this video from the LA Times‘ Babylon and Beyond blog.
Unconfirmed reports from Ha’aretz say that two people in Latakia have been killed along with 15 civilians in Deraa on Friday.
On Tuesday, the United States Institute of Peace, the National Democratic Institute, the Solidarity Center, and Human Rights Watch hosted a live video-conference with senior representatives of the Bahraini opposition including: Khalil Almarzooq, a leading member of the Al Wefaq Islamic National Society and its bloc’s official spokesperson; Dr. Muneera Fakhro, parliamentary member and senior leader of the leftist Wa’ad party; Mohammed Al Maskati, head of the Bahrain Youth Center for Human Rights; and Sayed Hadi al-Musawi, a Bahraini human rights activist. The event was moderated by Steven Heydemann, Senior Vice President and Special Adviser to the Center for Conflict Management at the U.S. Institute of Peace and Leslie Campbell, NDI’s senior associate and regional director for the Middle East and North Africa.
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In an op-ed piece for Foreign Policy, Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) criticizes President Barack Obama’s “hesitancy” to weigh in on the government crackdown on protesters in Syria. Rubio said that Obama’s lack of actions “has been mistaken for indecision at best and indifference at worst. The president needs to speak directly to the Syrian people to communicate American support for their legitimate demands.” Calling Obama’s decision to restore ties with Syria as ‘ill-advised’ Rubio calls on the President to sever U.S. ties with Syria and recall the American ambassador immediately. He also called on the President to use U.S. ‘diplomatic weight’ to convince European allies and Turkey to impose diplomatic a sanctions on the regime.
Hugh Macleod and an anonymous correspondent, writing for Al Jazeera, outline the tense and terrifying atmosphere in Deraa, currently under Syrian military siege. They describe the city as a veritable ghost town as military tanks patrol the streets and snipers shoot at anyone daring enough to venture outside. All modes of telecommunications, including internet, have been cut entirely. Families stuck inside their homes are running low on water and food. The army has also occupied all of the city’s hospitals. Anonymous eyewitness accounts describe the fear and confusion of the populace in the face of elite security forces: “They dress in black and are large and muscular. They have a red stripe on one shoulder. I’ve seen them at night and members of my family have described them to me.” Many of the reports emanating from the city remain unconfirmed and obtaining a clear picture of what is currently happening is extremely difficult, Macleod infers.
On Thursday, Turkey sent a high-level delegation of government experts to advise the Syrian regime on how to implement rapid reforms. According to Selim Yenel, deputy undersecretary for the Americas at Turkey’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the decision to send the team was agreed to in advance. Marc Champion of the Wall Street Journal, writes that the sending of the delegation is a sign of Turkey’s concern that “rising violence could trigger instability across the region and unravel Turkish commercial and foreign-policy gains.” Turkish leaders have repeatedly called for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to exercise restraint and pursue reforms. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated on Wednesday, “We hope the process of democratization will be rapidly pursued. Our representatives will present [President Assad] some of our preparations” which include a “road map” for changes to Syria’s public and economic administration in line with protesters’ demands.
On Thursday, Senators John McCain (R-AZ), Joe Lieberman (I-CT) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC) released a statement calling on President Barack Obama “to state unequivocally – as he did in the case of Qaddafi and Mubarak – that it is time for Assad to go” and to implement diplomatic and economic measures to isolate and pressure Bashar al-Assad‘s regime. ”The escalating crackdown by Bashar al Assad’s regime against the Syrian people has reached a decisive point. By following the path of Moammar Qaddafi and deploying military forces to crush peaceful demonstrations, Assad and those loyal to him have lost the legitimacy to remain in power in Syria,” the statement said. The senators also state that they believe Assad has squandered opportunities to pursue meaningful reform and that U.S. and its allies should “align ourselves unequivocally with the Syrian people in their peaceful demand for a democratic government.”
On Tuesday, Chairwoman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL) issued a statement criticizing the likely selection of Syria to join the U.N. Human Rights Council. “I am outraged yet not surprised that the UN will not clean up its act or hold these regimes accountable. The founders of the United Nations would be appalled at the degeneration of the institution for which they held such high hopes,” she said. The congresswoman has been a vocal supporter of reforming the United Nations and has authored several bills on the subject, which have included withholding U.S. funding for the Human Rights Council and calling for the U.S. to withdraw its membership until structural reforms are implemented. She will soon introduce “a revised and expanded version of this legislation.”
About 200 officials from Syria’s ruling Arab Socialist Baath Party have resigned in protest of the regime’s violent repression of the country’s protests. The defections were primarily from low-ranking officials from the Deraa area, and follows the resignation of some 30 officials in the city of Baniyas.
At the United Nations, a Security Council draft resolution was condemning the crackdown was voted down by several members. Russia argued that events in Syria did not affect international peace. China and India have called for a political resolution to the conflict but did not condemn the violence. An emergency session of the UN Human Rights Council is to address the situation in Syria on Friday. In special briefing by the State Department, Director of Policy Planning Jake Sullivansaid the United States continues to condemn Syria’s actions, but would not directly address whether the US believes Syrian President Bashar Assad has lost legitimacy. He added that US actions toward Syria are currently limited to the “diplomatic and financial.” In a decisive diplomatic reproach, the British Foreign Office rescinded the Syrian Ambassador’s invitation to the royal wedding of Prince William and Kate Middleton, which will take place on Friday. Syrian ambassador Sami Khiyami responded, “I don’t really understand it but I understand the influence of media on the government decisions.”
Marc Lynchproposes that the US approach toward Syria should spotlight the regime’s human rights abuses, consider targeted sanction and align its rhetoric and actions as part of a broader regional strategy. This amounts to stronger rhetoric against the regime in pace with building international diplomatic and media pressure against it. He said the US should not remove its ambassador or consider military action. Elliott Abramscriticizes the administration for not taking the lead in condemning the repression in Syria, and for appealing to Syrian President Bashar Assad’s sense of cosmopolitanism. He argues that the administration is underestimating its own potential to lead in the region while overestimating Assad’s sensibilities.
The International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH) released a statement saying that the Syrian government has committed “international crimes – that fall under the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court.” FIDH said the international community, “must strongly condemn the gross and systematic violation of human rights by the Syrian authorities and urge them to put an immediate end to the violence.” They also called on the U.N. Security Council to refer Syria to the ICC and cautiously welcomed the upcoming UN Human Rights Council session on Syria scheduled for Friday, April 29th: “[...] it [UNHRC] cannot be the only answer to the very serious and deadly crackdown on Syrian protests. We hope that the UNSC member States will take urgent and appropriate decisions under their responsibility to protect. The UNSC must take the lead by contributing to put an end to the widespread acts of violence against civilians” said Radwan Ziadeh, Director of the Damascus Center for Human Rights Studies, a FIDH member organization.
Germany has asked the European Union to explore the imposition of sanctions on Syria in response to the government’s violent crackdown on protesters. The U.K. has joined Germany in calling for sanctions while France, Spain, and Italy have summoned their respective Syrian ambassadors to voice condemnation of the crackdown. Sanctions could include a travel ban on Syrian leaders, asset freezes, and a halt to economic assistance from the Union. German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle said that if the Syrian government did not stop the violence that sanctions would be unavoidable. The U.N. Human Rights Council will hold a special session on Syria on Friday.
Writing at The Cable, Josh Rogin discusses the new policy course the Obama Administration will take in regards to Syria. He states that in light of the violent crackdowns and the lack of substantial reform over the past two weeks, the mood inside the administration has shifted. In the coming days we can “expect a new executive order on Syria, a draft presidential statement at the U.N. Security Council, new designations of Syrian officials as targets for sanctions, and a firmer tone on the violence that will include references to Iran’s unhelpful influence on Syria’s crackdown,” Rogin states. He notes, however, that the new sanctions will not target Syrian President Bashar al-Assad directly and there will be no calls for him to step down. Elliott Abrams, among others, has criticized the administration’s response, including President Barack Obama‘s statement on Friday, as too weak and too slow. This may have been due to the perception in the White House that protests in Syria would not have escalated this far, Rogin states. According to an administration official, “The general assessment [inside the administration] was that this wouldn’t happen, that Assad was too good at nipping these movements in the bud and also that he was not afraid to be brutal. All of these things combined made this more of a surprise and made it much harder to deal with.” George Washington University professor Marc Lynch states that the Assad regime’s use of force left the administration with no choice but to increase our involvement.
On Monday, White House spokesman Jay Carney addressing questions from the press on Syria, reiterated U.S. condemnation of the use of force by the Syrian government against demonstrators. Carney called on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to honor promises to lift the emergency law and institute reforms and in response to a question, Carney stated that having an ambassador in Syria “has been useful” as it has allowed the U.S. to “communicate directly what our positions and views are.”
He also noted how the situation in Syria differs greatly from that in Libya as Muammar Gadhafi‘s regime was “moving against its own people in a coordinated military fashion” with the promise that it would show no mercy. He also pointed to the international consensus and support of the Arab League the U.S. and its allies received before intervening in the country. Carney stated that the U.S. is looking at a range of options, including targeted sanctions to “make clear that this behavior is unacceptable.” However, he noted that the U.S. is not considering sending aid to the opposition, as suggested by Senator Joe Lieberman (I-CT), given the fact that “there is not an organized opposition to whom we would give aid at this point.”
Given the uncertainty surrounding events in the Middle East, CNN.com asked five experts to address how the “Arab Spring” will play out in the coming months. Ibrahim Sharqieh, deputy director of the Brookings Doha Center, states that in the coming months we will see a new paradigm for political transition in the Middle East as dictators use more forceful means to quell popular uprisings. Nader Hashemi notes the misnomer of ”Arab Spring” given the differing internal dynamics of the countries, but notes that the days are numbered for Arab dictators. Parag Khanna, senior research fellow with the New America Foundation, argues that the region is likely to remain volatile especially in Egypt during the lead up to parliamentary elections and in Bahrain where the government has suppressed the opposition instead of addressing its concerns. He also notes the role the International Monetary Fund and the Gulf countries can play in supporting structural economic modernization throughout the region.
Julie Taylor, a political scientist at the RAND Corp., stated that in the next six months, we will likely see regime change in Yemen and Libya. Taylor also notes the Syrian armed forces commitment to President Bashar al-Assad and the strong support the regime will likely receive from Iran for a mass crackdown. Feryal Cherif draws parallels between the events in Egypt and those in Syria where both leaders offered concessions in hopes of appeasing protesters, but tended to remain a step behind protesters’ demands. She notes, however, that Syria lacks the presence of a strong civil society and experience with activism, which will likely hinder their movement.
