Religion may become extinct in nine nations, study says
A study using census data from nine countries shows that religion there is set for extinction, say researchers.
The study found a steady rise in those claiming no religious affiliation.
The team's mathematical model attempts to account for the interplay between the number of religious respondents and the social motives behind being one.
The result, reported at the American Physical Society meeting in Dallas, US, indicates that religion will all but die out altogether in those countries.
The team took census data stretching back as far as a century from countries in which the census queried religious affiliation: Australia, Austria, Canada, the Czech Republic, Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands, New Zealand and Switzerland.
Nonlinear dynamics is invoked to explain a wide range of physical phenomena in which a number of factors play a part.
One of the team, Daniel Abrams of Northwestern University, put forth a similar model in 2003 to put a numerical basis behind the decline of lesser-spoken world languages.
At its heart is the competition between speakers of different languages, and the "utility" of speaking one instead of another.
"The idea is pretty simple," said Richard Wiener of the Research Corporation for Science Advancement, and the University of Arizona.
"It posits that social groups that have more members are going to be more attractive to join, and it posits that social groups have a social status or utility.
"For example in languages, there can be greater utility or status in speaking Spanish instead of [the dying language] Quechuan in Peru, and similarly there's some kind of status or utility in being a member of a religion or not."
Dr Wiener continued: "In a large number of modern secular democracies, there's been a trend that folk are identifying themselves as non-affiliated with religion; in the Netherlands the number was 40%, and the highest we saw was in the Czech Republic, where the number was 60%."
The team then applied their nonlinear dynamics model, adjusting parameters for the relative social and utilitarian merits of membership of the "non-religious" category.
They found, in a study published online, that those parameters were similar across all the countries studied, suggesting that similar behaviour drives the mathematics in all of them.
And in all the countries, the indications were that religion was headed toward extinction.
However, Dr Wiener told the conference that the team was working to update the model with a "network structure" more representative of the one at work in the world.
"Obviously we don't really believe this is the network structure of a modern society, where each person is influenced equally by all the other people in society," he said.
However, he told BBC News that he thought it was "a suggestive result".
"It's interesting that a fairly simple model captures the data, and if those simple ideas are correct, it suggests where this might be going.
"Obviously much more complicated things are going on with any one individual, but maybe a lot of that averages out."
53 Minutes Ago
I'm just waiting for more from the teapartygirl. Hilarious. Just wonder about her opinion on dinosaurs and the age of the planet.
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54 Minutes Ago
But why dost thou judge thy brother? or why dost thou set at nought thy brother? for we shall all stand before the judgment seat of Christ. For it is written, As I live, saith the Lord, every knee shall bow to me, and every tongue shall confess to God.
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56 Minutes Ago
Statisticians should conduct a real survey of active, church-going Christians and they will find they represent some 10%+ of the UK population, but they aren't to be found in Anglican or RC churches generally. As for Islam, it is growing all the time also by virtue of converts and more children per family.
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56 Minutes Ago
maybe RELIGIONS will fade away, but ISLAM will live forever... There is no debate that we have a creator.
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57 Minutes Ago
About time too! Hope it spreads to the rest of the word
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58 Minutes Ago
@160. Jeff
Lol at science being responsible for our problems. Way to go in terms of refusing to see the writing on the wall. Science is not responsible for our problems, we are. Day we realise this and stop blaming inanimate thought constructs for our hangovers, we get one step closer to solving them.
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58 Minutes Ago
WorldofBrianRice
I wasn't responding to your post. However there is much that scientists also blind themselves to. This is a huge discussion.
1. Placebo's shouldn't work but do -this in itself is a huge question ie what we percieve to be 'real' and what is 'real'.
2. How we percieve -conscience and is it possible to measure all we percieve?
Christians say one cannot percieve God without Christ
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58 Minutes Ago
rubbish - one of the BBC articles regarding baptism in Russia recalls how religion was frowned upon during the Soviet era, but has now "made a big comeback" - and of course secularisation is occuring in 'westernised' nations (interesting to see that out of these 9 nations, none of them were in the middle east, asia, etc) but does not mean that this is a global phenomenon!
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59 Minutes Ago
There are a lot of people mentioning the fact that when countries have tried to destroy religion, it has resulted in the killing of many innocent people. I'm not quite sure how this is relevant as no one is trying to destroy religion. As scientific knowledge has increased our understanding of the universe, people find religion less relevant as the answers in most religious teachings are illogical
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1 Hour Ago
Whether or not you want to be religious, should be a choice, not something that's forced down your throat (or pants in the case of some religions) at an age where you believe that the moon is made from green cheese.
If there's one area I never want to see religion in, it's politics. Whether its the tea party in the US or the BJP in India, these two make evil bedmates.
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1 Hour Ago
I haven't gone to church, except a time or two for Easter or Christmas, for many years. I believe the bible just as religiosn are man made. Believing there is an energy out there. I think all are somewhat interrelated, but I am not a religious person. I am a spiritual being.
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1 Hour Ago
It is rare that I am provoked enough to join a comment site, but while the supposed subject-matter interested me, I looked in vain for any concrete substance or argumentation in the article. In parts it was a great example of how to say nothing with words, though. Certainly didn't convince me either way, and would only lead to protagonists throwing stones at each other across a vacuum.
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1 Hour Ago
The religion argument.
Again.
You can get rid of have your say, but you'll never get rid of this one. Alas
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1 Hour Ago
@ topic, religion is losing its relevance in most aspects of our lives. I have noticed an interesting trend, the more developed a nation becomes, the more secular its outlook.
It won't die out, it's too well established a meme to just fade away, but its importance will gradually reduce. I have no problems with religions personally, it's just that its followers will never control their egos ever
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1 Hour Ago
I've also noticed that athiests know they are not wrong, its comforting and an idea that they understand, does not need to be ' pushed ' on anyone. Most of us come to this agnostic or athiestic conclusion on our own...no books, no mentoring or persuasion needed, not hard sell...one comes to it naturally. I also think most of us wish it weren't so and that a creator would be nice...but so be it.
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1 Hour Ago
As far as I'm concerned this can only be a good thing. Religion offers next to nothing when it comes to the progression of human kind, only division and persecution.
Believing in the universe and the stars is much more optimistic!
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1 Hour Ago
Good. Religion only persists because of the systematic brainwashing of the young impressionable minds of children. The sooner it becomes extinct, the better it will be for the whole human race.
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1 Hour Ago
Some of the comments here are hilarious For example teapartygirl says-
"How can you even deny something that doesn't exist, to deny it, is admitting it's very existence."
is a logical fallacy. It is like trying to argue that bald is a hair style or that 'colourless' is a colour. If we follow the same logic, absence of evidence is evidence of absence.
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1 Hour Ago
Physics predicting extinctions? Wha? Science is actually the cause of many of the extinctions taking place in the physical world today. Plastics, dioxins, DDT, & chlorofluorocarbons were all created by modern science. Global warming is the result of the work of scientists, who recited from their scientific catechism, "I just do the research, I'm not responsible for the application."
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1 Hour Ago
Papers in the Physics Archive are not peer reviewed, so should be read with caution. If I had been asked to review this paper, there are a number of points that I would make, starting with the point already made by other comments here that is is an extremely biased selection of countries that have been used, with a complete lack of Islamic countries.
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