Humala or Fujimori: an "unsettling" choice for democrats
While a Fujimori administration would provide continuity to Peru’s economic model, many fear her stances on key democratic issues, including human rights, judicial independence, government transparency and the fight against corruption, and others. Previous polls suggested that Fujimori would beat Humala in a second round with wealthier voters flocking to her camp. While the business sector may be less threatened by Keiko than Humala, such predictions are not so simple.
Former President Toledo led the polls for 10 weeks before falling sharply to fourth place. He ran on a platform of continuity and reform: continuation of the economic policies of his first administration with adjustments to benefit the poorest Peruvians.
According to analysts, his descent can be explained by a number of factors. First, Toledo focused overwhelmingly on current President Alan García, rather than the other contenders in the race. This worked at first—but the strategy eventually backfired. Second, he was unable to clearly communicate his “continuity with reform” platform, running an erratic and undisciplined campaign. He even had to retract numerous public comments that he contended were “misunderstood.” And he refused to take a drug test, which became an issue. Third, by confronting his one-time finance minister Mr. Kuczynski, he helped raise his own opponent’s profile. Finally, he failed to build support among young voters, who instead supported Mr. Kuczynski.
A lot can happen in the next two months. In 2006, Mr. Humala faced President García in the second round and lost by only four points. Former President Toledo and Mr. Kuczynski will play an important role in swaying moderate voters one way or the other. Peruvian analysts expect implicit or explicit alliances to unfold over the coming weeks. Rumors in Lima say that Humala is already reaching out to moderate left-leaning figures. Given Humala and Fujimori’s high voter disapproval levels, they will need to find support outside their traditional bases to win the second round. Mr. Kuczynski won in Lima and Callao, and both Humala and Fujimori have their eyes on these constituencies.
Voter absenteeism and null votes might be significantly higher in the second round as well. Peru has compulsory voting, and voter turnout usually averages 85 percent. But, since moderate voters—who are a majority—will not be represented in the ballot, many may choose to just stay home.
“It’s a very unsettling scenario because there are very many questions about the democratic credentials of both candidates,” Cordova told PBS Newshour.
Fabiola Córdova is a guest blogger for AQ Online, and a program officer for Latin America and the Caribbean at the National Endowment for Democracy, the Washington-based democracy assistance group.
