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India, Kazakhstan bolster ties
India's still limited ties with Kazakhstan
strengthened with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's recent meeting with President
Nursultan Nazarbaev, marked by numerous agreements on areas ranging from
cyber-security to energy. Cooperation on space exploration is particularly
significant. - Roman Muzalevsky (May 12,
'11)
Russia redrawing Europe energy map
Russia and gas giant Gazprom are on a
winning streak in the great Caspian energy game, with the company's export
revenues soaring, prospects for the South Stream and North Stream pipelines
brightening, and the outlook for the rival US-backed Nabucco pipeline to Europe
fading fast. - M K Bhadrakumar (May 11,
'11)
Nabucco pipeline delayed
A lack of supply contracts has led to further delays
in starting construction of the Nabucco pipeline to supply Caspian natural gas
to Europe, while the cost if it goes ahead may now be as much as double 2005
estimates. One consolation is that Turkmenistan, a potentially key supplier,
still needs Nabucco. - Robert M Cutler (May
11, '11)
Russia
and China challenge NATO
Growing unease that North
Atlantic Treaty Organization intervention in Libya
aims to  perpetuate
the West's historic dominance in the Middle East
fueled the weekend announcement by Russian Foreign
Minister Sergei Lavrov that Moscow and Beijing
would act in concert. Both share concern that the
United Nations hierarchy may acquiesce to a ground
invasion in Libya without a UN mandate. - M K Bhadrakumar (May 9,
'11)
Pakistan
seeks solace in the Kremlin
Pakistan's President Asif Ali
Zardari will make an unexpected three-day trip to
Russia next week. The timing underscores that
Moscow recognizes the central role that Islamabad
plays in the Afghan situation - both share the
view that any peace process should be
"Afghan-led". While it is too early to say the
"fizz" has gone out of the United States-Russia
reset, Zardari will be keen to see how this
affects Pakistan. - M K
Bhadrakumar (May 6, '11)
Russia,
China clash over oil price, supply
Four months after the first
Russian crude oil started pumping into the Chinese
town of Daqing, Russian pipeline company Transneft
has charged China National Petroleum Co with
violating their supply contract and is threatening
to open court proceedings in London. - John Helmer (May 4,
'11)
Kremlin
lacking WTO will
Russia has pursued
negotiations to joint the World Trade Organization
for 18 years, leaving it the only major economy
outside the global trade body. Lack of political
will and business interests that see the WTO only
as a threat remain as constraints against early
resolution of outstanding issues. - Kester Kenn Klomegah
(Apr 28, '11)
Total
joins gamblers at Russian roulette
France's Total is joining
Western rivals in raising its investment in
Russia's vast energy reserves, despite the
country's still challenging political environment.
China alone seems to recognize Russia's
less-than-meticulous respect for agreements. - Robert M Cutler (Apr 28,
'11)
Putin
against 'radical change'
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin
used his last government work report to the Duma
to claim full credit for Russia's post-crisis
recovery while dismissing "sudden radical changes"
based on "unjustified economic liberalism". That
creates opportunities for President Dmitry
Medvedev to argue his own case - if he can while
supporting United Russia. - Pavel K Baev (Apr 26,
'11)
Race
on for Kazakh uranium
The destruction inflicted on
Japan's nuclear power stations during last month's
tsunami notwithstanding, global demand for uranium
is expected to continue to grow. That puts
Kazkhstan at the center of a struggle to obtain
the resource, promising it considerable wealth -
and is rousing growing worries about the country
become a major proliferator. - Roman Muzalevsky (Apr 18,
'11)
BP's
Russia dream turns to nightmare
BP chief executive Bob
Dudley's Rosneft link-up, forged under now
departing chairman and deputy premier Igor Sechin,
threatens to become as messy as the company's
earlier TNK-BP partnership. BP could soon be out
in the cold after paying a punitive price for
extricating itself. - Robert M Cutler (Apr 13,
'11)
Great
Soviet hero became a Russian hero
Once a peasant boy, Yury
Gagarin's fame as the first man in space handed
him a privileged life courtesy of the Kremlin,
before falling foul of vodka, Leonid Brezhnev and
a fatal MiG crash. However, Gagarin retained his
common touch and he remains, 50 years after his
historic flight, just as adored now as during the
Soviet era. (Apr 13, '11)
Tajik-Iranian
ties flourish
Iran is increasing its
presence in Tajikistan, from agreements to
establish a cement plant to help with building
hydropower stations. Iranian specialists are also
becoming involved in mineral exploration, raising
speculation that they are interested in
Tajikistan's uranium reserves. - Alexander Sodiqov (Apr 6,
'11)
Medvedev,
Nazarbaev fail to heal fault lines
Russia's President Dmitry
Medvedev and his Kazakh counterpart, Nursultan
Nazarbaev, have pledged to strengthen economic
ties, with talk of further developing their energy
partnership. Such signs of friendship overlook a
failure to finalize previously announced projects
and the widening trade gap in Russia's favor. - Sergei Blagov (Apr 5,
'11)
EU
practices acrobatics
with
Caspian gas flip-flop
European Union Energy
Commissioner Gunther Oettinger, months after
arguing that the EU-sponsored Nabucco and the
Russian South Stream pipeline projects were
rivals, now says economics guides such concerns,
not politics - a view gas-laden and increasingly
autonomous Azerbaijan can appreciate if not quite
believe. - Robert M
Cutler (Mar 31, '11)
Compressed
gas on the Caspian table
Small projects involving
compressed natural gas are being considered for
supplying Central Asian fuel to Europe, but full
political and practical commitment by the European
Union to pipeline development is the only
practical way forward. - Robert M Cutler (Mar 24,
'11)
China stretches
out
China's
agreement to increase by a third its purchases of
gas from Turkmenistan is indicative of its rising
influence in Central Asia. The cut-price rate of
the deal and border agreements that hand over to
Beijing resource-rich territory point to the
development of imbalanced relationships. - Stephen Blank (Mar 23,
'11)
Gaddafi triggers Kremlin
rift
Battlelines
have been drawn in Moscow for the soul of Russian
policy on Libya after President Dmitry Medvedev
ticked off Prime Minister Vladimir Putin for
casting United Nations resolution 1973 as a
medieval call for a crusade. The leadership divide
shatters a cultivated impression of unity and is
destined to play out in Russian politics as a
tough presidential election year approaches.
Russians know there can only be one czar at one
time. - M K
Bhadrakumar (Mar 22, '11)
Russia does about-turn
on key pipeline
projects
Russia in
the past month has abandoned a series of energy
transit projects, some long in the planning,
signaling the end of an era but leaving questions
over the future of Turkey's relationships with its
northern neighbor in the great power game. - Vladimir Socor (Mar 22,
'11)
South Stream may
disappear
Russia's
South Stream project to transport gas via the
Black Sea to Serbia and Europe has undergone
numerous rethinks over the years. Outright
disappearance is the latest possibility, although
the project's head is still in the dark on that
one. - Robert M Cutler
(Mar 17, '11)
Aliyev stirs up Kazakhs with
land-lease claim
Self-imposed Kazakh exile
Rakhat Aliyev has his own reasons for attacking
President Nursultan Nazarbayev, his former
father-in-law, raising doubts over his claim that
a million hectares of land have been leased to
China. But the charges are enough to bring people
out on the streets. - Birgit Brauer (Mar 15,
'11)
Azerbaijan doubles
up
Azerbaijan has
doubled its gas production estimates for this
decade, after increasing its forecast just last
year. That adds further complexity to the question
of just who will be the customers for all that
energy. - Robert M
Cutler (Mar 11, '11)
KazMunaiGaz leads share
sale
Local
citizens are to be the only permissible buyers
when Kazakhstan starts a series of state-company
share sales this year. The move should boost the
local stock exchange's liquidity, although the
choice of KazMunaiGaz to kick-off the project
comes with value-deductible controversy. - Birgit Brauer (Mar 10,
'11)
Gazprom buys BP's Kovykta gas
venture
Russia's
Gazprom has bought the license to develop the
Kovykta gas field in eastern Siberia, previously
held by TNK-BP, BP's troubled joint venture in
Russia. The US$773 million purchase at auction may
clear the way for the first giant gas field to be
developed in Russia since the Soviet era. - Vladimir Socor (Mar 9,
'11)
Karimov seeks growth away
from commodities
Uzbek President Islam
Karimov, aiming to ease his country's dependence
on commodities, is backing a program to cut red
tape and help new businesses get off the ground.
The theory is fine, but in practice funds might
just be shifted from one part of the economy to
another. - Dmitry
Alyaev (Mar 9, '11)
Total blazes Russia
trail
France’s
Total stretches reality in its claims its recent
pacts with Novatek indicate Russia's relative
safety, but they do suggest a new partnership
model for Western energy companies - and rising
power for Gennady Timchenko. - Vladimir Socor (Mar 8,
'11)
Kurils: The great game in
Asia-Pacific
This
week's Russian move to deploy cruise missiles on
the disputed Kurils takes Russian President Dmitry
Medvedev's assertion of sovereignty over Japan's
claim to the islands from rhetoric to a concrete
military step. Behind the deployment are Russian
worries about a possible United States-China
concord dominating the East Asian geopolitical
stage; angst that cannot be dismissed. - M K Bhadrakumar (Mar 4,
'11)
Kazakhstan deepens China
link
President
Nursultan Nazarbaev's latest visit to Beijing
underlines the extent to which the relationship
between Kazakhstan and China is deepening as it is
expanding across the board, even as Astana is
strengthening ties with Moscow. - Robert M Cutler (Mar 2,
'11)
Russia muscles EU
resolve
Russia
appears to believe that troubles in North Africa
and the Middle East have swung the balance its way
in energy negotiations with the European Union,
and that EU officials have already blinked. - Vladimir Socor (Mar 2,
'11)
Putin battles EU curbs on
Gazprom
monopoly
power
Russian
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin used his recent
visit to Brussels to object to legislation that
would curb Gazprom's monopoly powers in Europe -
further emphasizing the political purpose of its
South Stream pipeline project. - Vladimir Socor (Mar 1,
'11)
Nabucco faces cost
surge
A possible
near doubling of the cost of the Nabucco pipeline
intended to carry gas from the Caspian to Europe
is a key factor, rather than rival offers, in
prompting the project consortium to delay until
next year its final investment decision. - Vladimir Socor (Feb 25,
'11)
South Stream feints
again
The final
investment decision for the European Union-backed
Nabucco pipeline to import gas from the Caspian
Sea basin is fast approaching, adding urgency to
the less-advanced Russian-sponsored South Stream
project to step up efforts to promote itself as a
better option. - Robert M
Cutler (Feb 24, '11)
Russia shelves Balkan
project
Russia's
plans to pipe oil across the Balkans to the Greek
Aegean coast for onward shipment are now
effectively shelved, with Greece unable to pay its
contribution and Bulgarians balking at the
environmental risks to their tourist resorts. Dark
Western influence is also hinted at. - Vladimir Socor (Feb 22,
'11)
Moscow eyes power
control
Proposals
to send gas and electricity from Central to South
Asia indicate the opportunities for nations in the
region both energy rich and poor. Much, however,
will depend on the role played by Moscow, still
ambitious but no longer able to dominate the
geopolitical dynamics in Central Asia alone. - Roman Muzalevsky (Feb 17,
'11)
SPEAKING
FREELY
A fraternal welcome for
Erdogan
Turkey's
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan was greeted as
an "elder brother" in Kyrgyzstan recently. In
Bishkek, he talked about "building a strong
Eurasia", keeping in mind that there is another
elder brother in the region: Russia. - Altay Atli (Feb 16,
'11)
Road to Cairo passes through
Brussels
Wrangling
between the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and
Russia over the alliance's plans for a European
anti-ballistic missile system appears to have
little bearing on the chaos in Egypt. However,
Moscow's capacity to be "non-cooperative" on
issues in the "New Middle East" may represent its
last hope of redressing the technological and
geopolitical imbalances undermining its role in
the negotiations. - M K
Bhadrakumar (Feb 11, '11)
Russia emerging from the
cold
Ahead of a
United Nations Security Council meeting this month
to discuss the North Korean nuclear issue, Russia
- after many years of playing a relatively
background role - is emerging as a key player,
especially as China refuses to follow the hard
line of the United States. - Sunny Lee (Feb 10,
'11)
Gazprom, Shell seek
tie-up
Russia's
drive to expand its energy output is leading to an
increasing number of tie-ups with foreign
companies. After Rosneft's recent deals with
ExxonMobil and BP, gas monopoly Gazprom and Royal
Dutch Shell are moving to further natural gas
developments in far east Sakhalin Island. - Robert M Cutler (Feb 10,
'11)
Azerbaijan eases gambling
ban
Azerbaijan has
loosened its 13-year ban on gambling amid claims
that it will be good for business, and for sports
teams and the government through tax income. It is
also following in the wake of Georgia and Armenia,
while Turkey offers a template for the change in
policy. - Kristin
Deasy and Arife
Kazimova (Feb 9, '11)
Rosneft extends foreign
tie-ups
Russian
energy firm Rosneft appears to be coming out of
seclusion with its exploration and development
deals for the Black Sea (with US giant ExxonMobil)
and Arctic continental shelf (with UK-based BP).
Legal, territorial, and environmental issues make
the deals even more unusual. - Robert M Cutler (Feb 3,
'11)
BP opens old Russia
wounds
BP chief
executive Bob Dudley wasted little time in the
post before securing a deal with Russia's Rosneft
to explore for oil in the Arctic. But then he has
played Russian roulette before - with the
now-jailed Mikhail Khodorkovsky and later with
TNK, whose Russian investors are saying his latest
gambit is against the rules of the game. - John Helmer (Feb 3,
'11)
Central Asia too
natural
Central
Asian countries have abundant natural resources,
but their overdependence on the likes of oil and
gold exports makes them highly exposed to the
uncertainties of international markets, according
to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development. - Antoine
Blua (Feb 2, '11)
Chinese move on to Tajik
fields
Chinese
workers are moving into the cotton and rice fields
of southern Tajikistan, sowing anger amongst
native workers at their arrival and the
government's unheralded decision to lease 2,000
hectares to a regional Chinese government. Yet
without such a deal, the land might have gone to
waste. - Bruce Pannier
(Feb 1, '11)
Pakistan reaches
north
With only
the narrow Afghan Wakhan corridor separating
Tajikistan from Pakistan, and annual bilateral
trade a lowly US$6.5 million, both countries are
looking to bridge that gap. Success would give
land-bound Tajikistan (and northern neighbor
Russia) access to the Arabian Sea and the Indian
Ocean, and Pakistan a more direct route to Central
Asia. - Roman
Muzalevsky (Feb 1, '11)
China
plays long game on border disputes
A conciliatory settlement
of a border dispute with Tajikistan belies the
bully-boy image China has in some quarters. But
Beijing has geostrategic reasons for playing
softball with its Central Asian neighbors, ones
that may not apply concerning its territorial
tensions with India, Japan and Taiwan. - Sudha Ramachandran (Jan 26,
'11)
Medvedev's Davos
moment
Russian
President Dmitry Medvedev, who in the wake of the
Moscow airport bombing has delayed but not yet
cancelled his visit to the World Economic Forum at
Davos, values the invitation to address the
gathering's opening session. Yet any realistic
assessment of the Russian economy will be absent
from his comments. - Pavel
K Baev (Jan 25, '11)
What's fueling oil and food
prices?
During
German hyperinflation early in the last century,
the German central bank claimed that there was a
shortage of money, while blaming inflation on
consumer demand, speculation, and manipulation by
profiteers. All nonsense, of course, but present
and future oil and commodity price inflation is
and will be explained in like fashion. - Hossein Askari and Noureddine Krichene (Jan 25,
'11)
Al-Qaeda hand in Moscow
attack?
Monday's
bombing at an international airport in Moscow that
killed at least 35 people and injured another 180
fits in with al-Qaeda's plans to spread the war in
Afghanistan from the north of that country to
Central Asian nations. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jan 25,
'11)
Caspian gas closer to
Europe
Agreement
this month between European Union president Jose
Manuel Barroso and energy commissioner colleague
Guenther Oettinger with Azerbaijan on gas supply
does not preclude deals involving pipelines other
than Nabucco. It does, however, make life easier
for Turkmenistan, also part of the European
bureaucrats' tour. - Robert M Cutler (Jan 19,
'11)
Kremlin keeps budget
close
Documents
outlining Russia's three-year budget have doubled
in volume since last published in 2008, but their
opaqueness makes it impossible for prominent
economists, let alone private citizens, to work
out where the cash is going - or its source. When
it comes to defense spending, even finance
ministers appear to be in the dark. - Vasily Zetsepin (Jan 18,
'11)
Tajikistan gas find a game
changer
The
discovery of the equivalent of 50 years' worth of
domestic gas consumption in Tajikistan's
Sarikamysh field, along with the development of
the Rogun Dam, could soon make the country an
energy exporter - and add more urgency to
Uzbekistan's efforts to diversify its export
partners. - Robert M
Cutler (Jan 13, '11)
Europe flies Nabucco
flag
The European
Commission president and its energy commissioner
visit Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan this week to
demonstrate commitment to the proposed Nabucco gas
pipeline, despite Russia's dislike of the project.
Signs of United States support might be more
useful. - Vladimir
Socor (Jan 12, '11)
Afghan solutions lead to
Central Asian crisis
International efforts to
replace poppy fields with food crops and improve
living standards in northern Afghanistan are signs
of progress, but some experts worry that this will
have unintended negative consequences for the
nation's neighbors, where water and energy
resources are sparse and tensions run high. - Timothy Spence (Jan 11,
'11)
Moscow mayor sweeps
clean
Moscow's new
mayor has set about tidying up Russia's capital by
removing the numerous kiosks that were the
ubiquitous symbol of 1990s-style Russian
capitalism. The move has thrown hundreds of people
out of work and left citizens without convenient
places to shop. - Kevin
O'Flynn (Jan 10, '11)
Reality check for Russian
oil
The Russian
government, long over-reliant on petrodollars,
faces a reality check. As it seeks to sustain high
levels of crude oil output, Moscow is also heaping
more taxes on producers and concedes that
development of nearly 30% of the country's oil
deposits makes no economic sense. The fortunes of
the mainly export-oriented sector are also hostage
to volatile international oil prices. - Sergei Blagov (Jan 4,
'11)
NATO
weaves South Asian web
Once unthinkable, deeper
engagement in Afghanistan and Pakistan by the
North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the world's
most powerful military and political alliance, is
set to raise the alliance's heft to shape South
Asian geopolitics. In the complex web now being
woven is a perpetual role in the security detail
of the gas pipeline that represents the finished
product of the US invasion. - M K Bhadrakumar (Dec 22,
'10)
New Eurasia power
emerges
Azerbaijan
and Turkmenistan, whose vast energy resources are
attracting the attention of much larger neighbors
and distant powers, are demonstrating the
foresight and political skills that will help them
determine their own destiny in Central Eurasia's
geo-economic battlefield. - Robert M Cutler (Dec 22,
'10)
BOOK
REVIEW
The driving force behind
empires
When
Empire Meets Nationalism by Didier Chaudet,
Florent Parmentier and Benoit Pelopidas The
authors attempt to deconstruct the ideologies that
inform foreign policy and the creation of empires,
particularly in relation to the United States and
Russia. This is an informative exercise, but
overlooked are other important factors, such as
economic policies. - Dmitry Shlapentokh (Dec 17,
'10)
Astana
builds energy depth
Kazakhstan is looking to
build, with the help of Ukraine, an oil refinery,
while a long-awaited deal may soon give India's
ONGC access to Caspian reserves. Plans to increase
pipeline capacity from the Tengiz deposit to the
Russian Black Sea are a further indication of
Astana's determination to increase its energy
earnings. - Robert M
Cutler (Dec 16, '10)
Khodorkovsky
must wait
A
reading of the verdict on the latest charges
against Mikhail Khodorkovsky, once Russia's
richest man, has been delayed until after
Christmas. Whether he is acquitted or sentenced to
more years in jail, the decision may not be in the
judges' hands. - Gregory
Feifer (Dec 16, '10)
Pipeline
project a new silk road
Despite what leaked American
cables said, Turkmen President Gurbanguli
Berdymukhamedov is nobody's fool. He was the key
figure behind the signing on Saturday of an
agreement on a new pipeline project. The deal is a
coup for Turkmenistan, and has important benefits
for Pakistan, India and the United States - and
Afghanistan. - M K
Bhadrakumar (Dec 15, '10)
Goodbye
to Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyzstan's workers, their
country wracked by political and social
instability, are increasingly heading to Russia to
find jobs. The wages on offer are still low, and
the work hard, but it is as least enough to send
money home to keep their families in the basic
necessities. - Farangis
Najibullah (Dec 14, '10)
Moscow
moves to counter NATO
In the face of what Russia
perceives as North Atlantic Treaty Organization
duplicity, Moscow this weekend used a summit of
the Collective Security Treaty Organization to
show its determination to build the grouping as a
counter to NATO's projection as the sole vehicle
for global security. Russia and its allies also
want to do something about what they view as a
failed US war strategy in Afghanistan. - M K Bhadrakumar (Dec 13,
'10)
Azerbaijan
adds gas to gas
Azerbaijan's significance as
an energy supplier grows almost daily, seen in
BP's recent plan for a new gas pipeline for the
Shah Deniz deposit and expectations that gas
supply contracts for the proposed Nabucco pipeline
will be signed early next year. All that before
the discovery of possibly vast reserves of gas at
the Umid offshore deposit. - Robert M Cutler (Dec 9,
'10)
US
plays up Russian gangs in Thailand
While previously released
documents by WikiLeaks revealed the United States
embassy created a team of diplomats to ensure
Thailand extradited alleged Russian arms smuggler
Viktor Bout, new revelations show American
agencies were also trying to bust Russian gangs
active in Thai tourist hotspots and were concerned
about Moscow's attempts to forge closer ties with
Bangkok. - Richard
Ehrlich (Dec 9, '10)
EU,
Russia reach WTO deal
Russia may be able to join
the World Trade Organization next year, with the
decision by the European Union to support
President Dmitry Medvedev's efforts in that
direction removing the biggest remaining obstacle.
- Dave Keating (Dec 8,
'10)
Central
Asian militants spoiling for
combat
Militant groups ousted from
Central Asian states in the 1990s, led by the
Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, have gathered
enough strength in Pakistan to break out of their
tribal hideouts and launch deadly attacks across
the region and into Europe. While the groups are a
major irritant for Islamabad’s ties with Central
Asia, there is little Pakistan can do about them.
- Abubakar Siddique
(Dec 7, '10)
Taking
down America
Rather than a gradual sapping
of influence, the US's military misadventures and
technological and economic decline could see its
"empire" fall as quickly and spectacularly as the
Soviet Union, Great Britain or the Ottomans. To
avert this, the Pentagon plans a deadly canopy of
space drones by 2020 that will have lethal reach
from stratosphere to exosphere. - Alfred W McCoy (Dec 6,
'10)
Bribes,
lies and a plot over Bout
Offers of bribes, lies and a
plot to have two United States Drug Enforcement
Administration agents arrested in Bangkok were
part of attempts by supporters of Viktor Bout to
block the alleged Russian arms smuggler's
extradition, according to claims made by the US
ambassador to Thailand in classified US cables
disclosed by WikiLeaks. - Richard S Ehrlich (Dec 3,
'10)
Baku
spreads its links
The main energy companies of
Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have agreed core
principles for a Trans-Caspian Oil Transport
System, including a 700-kilometer pipeline between
the two countries. The deal illustrates how
relatively small projects can have game-changing
consequences. - R M
Cutler (Dec 2, '10)
US
papers twist Iranian missile tale
United States media have
distorted a WikiLeaks revelation about the Iranian
missile program. American reports on the leaked
cable only say that the US believes Iran has a
missile that can hit Europe. They fail to mention
that Russian specialists rejected this claim. - Gareth Porter (Dec 1,
'10)
Russia
loses power status
Turkmenistan's efforts to
diversify its energy markets, notably by selling
to China and Iran but with Europe also waiting in
the wings, have reduced its dependence on Russia,
whose claims to be an energy superpower are no
longer valid. - Roman
Muzalevsky (Dec 1, '10)
India
air base grounded in Tajikistan
An air base in Tajikistan
that was once set to become a showpiece of India's
Central Asian ambitions, and planned home for
strategically placed MiG-29 jet fighters, is to be
handed to Russia. As a setback for India, however,
the loss is far from huge as economic rather than
military inroads are more likely to meet New
Delhi's regional aspirations. - Sudha Ramachandran (Nov 30,
'10)
Summit
ripples on the Caspian
The Caspian's uncertain legal
status since the break-up of the Soviet Union has
presented no bar to bilateral deals, particularly
in the energy field. Yet, as Iran showed at a
weekend summit of the sea's five littoral states,
overarching agreement that will divvy up rights to
sub-sea resources is all to easily sunk by
diplomatic torpedoes. - Robert M Cutler (Nov 24,
'10)
Georgian
port a $1 bn gamble
A US$1 billion port being
built on the Georgian Black Sea coast be able to
service any vessel capable of passing through the
Bosphorus, greatly expanding the country's trading
possibilities. Its investors are gambling that the
present declining trade trend will not continue. -
Lasha Zarginava (Nov 23,
'10)
Bear
trap set for Kyrgyzstan
Russia, having tried in vain
for 17 years to join the World Trade Organization,
is now forging its own trade bloc with former
Soviet neighbors. WTO member Kyrgyzstan appears
set to join the Kremlin concoction, with
consequences that could prove disastrous for the
small country's economy. - Cholpon Orozobekova (Nov 22,
'10)
Medvedev
a lonely tourist
The Kremlin was a far from
disinterested party at this month's Group of 20
summit, with the impact of the hotly debated
United States' monetary policy of vital relevance
to Russia. Yet here as at other important
international gatherings, Russian President Dmitry
Medvedev was largely isolated with little to say.
- Pavel K Baev (Nov 18,
'10)
Azerbaijan
wants Nabucco
to put
cards on the table
Russian Prime Minister
Vladimir Putin's agreement with Bulgaria on a
feasibility study for the proposed South Stream
gas pipeline to Europe does not guarantee it will
be built. But Azerbaijan's negotiating hand over
the rival Nabucco project is getting stronger. -
Robert M Cutler (Nov 17,
'10)
Obama
cleaves Asian rift
United States President
Barack Obama garnered awful headlines over his
administration's failure in Asia to strike trade
deals (apart from in India), yet his underlying
theme of developing regional counterweights to
China is succeeding. A meeting of Russia, India
and China on Monday - the highlight Beijing's snub
to Delhi's bid for a permanent seat on the UN's
security council - offers all the proof needed. -
M K Bhadrakumar (Nov 16,
'10)
Turkey,
Mongolia struggle to boost ties
Turkey and Mongolia have long
sought to build on their historic links, with the
recently completed sixth meeting of their Joint
Economic Commission adding to their efforts to
boost economic and commercial relations
overshadowed by Mongolia's immediate neighbors,
Russia and China. - Saban
Kardas (Nov 10, '10)
Russia
prods Afghan, Japanese wounds
Russia picked at war wounds
with Afghanistan and Japan this week with a
deliberateness betraying deeper calculations. An
anti-drug operation in Afghanistan underscored
Moscow's dramatic march towards NATO, while
prodding old scars over the Kurile islands, just
as Tokyo still smarts from a territorial rift with
Beijing, reaffirmed China as a core vector in
Russian foreign policy. - M K Bhadrakumar (Nov 5,
'10)
BOOK
REVIEW
The
ideas that drive Russia
Russia as an Aspiring Great
Power in East Asia by Paradorn Rangsimaporn
Russia is guided by an elite
that aspires to the country becoming a great
power. The book explores the influences that have
shaped this view, especially on President Dmitry
Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who
are not obsessed with the United States and see
China as just one of the possible geopolitical
options. - Dmitry
Shlapentokh (Nov 5, '10)
Khodorkovsky
warns Russia
Mikhail Khodorkovsky, once
Russia's richest man, has spent seven years in
jail for tax evasion and faces a further seven if
found guilty of money laundering and embezzlement.
Russia's fate depends on the verdict of his latest
trial, the defiant 47-year-old told a packed
Moscow courtroom. - Kevin
O'Flynn (Nov 5, '10)
Azerbaijan
diversifies energy export partners
Azerbaijan hopes to add to
its growing list of buyers of its natural
resources by supplying Ukraine's first liquefied
natural gas terminal, a project that will at the
same time reduce Kiev's energy dependence on
Russia. - Robert M
Cutler (Nov 4, '10)
Uzbek
officials profit from record cotton
price
Global
cotton prices are at record highs, which means
more cash flowing into Uzbekistan - particularly
to the politicians and officials who control the
crop from planting the seeds to processing the
harvest. The farmers, effectively bonded slaves,
will see no change in their income. (Nov 2,
'10)
Russia’s
Afghan foray a subtle stroke
Unlike in the Soviet era,
Russia now uses its military power judiciously.
Case in point: its recent joint drug raid in
Afghanistan with the US. In a stroke, Moscow fired
a warning shot at Pakistan and China, and showed
the world it had buried the hatchet with
Washington. - Brian M
Downing (Nov 2, '10)
Kremlin
lays down message to Ashgabat
The Kremlin's view of the
future for Turkmen gas - from the supposed lack of
demand for the fuel in the West, to the role of
Russia's Gazprom - is at odds with the outlook
from Ashgabat, but the message is clear: export
your gas anywhere except Europe. - Vladimir Socor (Nov 1,
'10)
Obama,
energy and peace in Asia
The opening up of a southern
pipeline for Turkmen gas through Afghanistan, to
Pakistan, India and markets faraway represents a
giant leap for the United States, as "ideologue"
of a project that will roll back Moscow and
Beijing's influence. And in as much as it could
unlock Afghanistan's vast mineral resources, US
President Barack Obama will see it as a harbinger
for peace. - M K
Bhadrakumar (Oct 29, '10)
Kazakhstan
deepens relations with Europe
Kazakhstan President
Nursultan Nazarbaev used his visit this week to
Brussels and Paris to seek higher levels of
European investment in his energy-rich country and
to agree trade deals in particular with France.
One pressing concern is to secure export routes
for its oil. - Robert M
Cutler (Oct 28, '10)
Putin
sets tough gas output challenge
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin
insists Russia will significantly boost gas output
production and exports. Yet with costs rising and
government insistence that domestic prices should
not reach international market levels, long-term
targets are looking increasingly unrealistic. - Sergei Blagov (Oct 27,
'10)
NATO
invites Russia to join Afghan fray
In an incredible twist to the
great game, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization
has invited Russia to dive deeper into the Afghan
war. NATO has nothing to lose, while Russia will
spot a lucrative deal as much as the political
embrace. Yet for those who remember the death
unleashed by Russian gunships more than two
decades ago, their return will invoke fear and
fury. - M K
Bhadrakumar (Oct 27, '10)
Deripaska
loses Norilsk Nickel fight
With the Kremlin looking on,
Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska has failed in his
efforts to dismiss the board of cash-rich Norilsk
Nickel, ending his hopes of setting terms for a
merger of the mining giant with his own aluminum
monopoly Rusal. Now both companies must recover
from the bruising showdown. - John Helmer (Oct 22,
'10)
Medvedev
has strong hand in Ashgabat
Russia has an excess of
natural gas supplies, which puts President Dmitry
Medvedev in a strong position in negotiations to
buy the fuel from Turkmenistan during his visit
there this week. With Ashgabat securing other
customers, notably China, the window of
opportunity might not be open for long. - Bruce Pannier (Oct 21,
'10)
More
Russian roulette for BP's Dudley
Robert Dudley's memories of
Russia include daunting dealings over control of
the Kovykta gas project in eastern Siberia. Now BP
chief executive, he is again seeing his company
hand over assets - this time in Vietnam and
Venezuela - to the Russian side of the TNK-BP
partnership. - Vladimir
Socor (Oct 20, '10)
CNOOC
sets Texas shale bait for Gazprom
China National Offshore Oil
Corporation, clumsily shouldered aside five years
ago when it wanted to buy California-based Unocal,
is back in favor in America with a US$2.2 billion
deal to drill in south Texas gas shale territory.
Now Russia's Gazprom, its warnings against such
drilling apparently forgotten, may follow the
Chinese company's lead. - Charles Ganske (Oct 19,
'10)
Turkey
inches closer to China
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao's
visit to Turkey this month produced a range of
agreements on economic matters that confirm
Beijing's increasing importance in the region and
Ankara's growing sense of a role independent of
the United States. But when it comes to military
matters, Washington's voice still counts. - Saban Kardas (Oct 18,
'10)
'Eurasia'
canal plan revived
A US$6.3 billion canal
linking the Caspian and Azov seas - giving Central
Asia access by water to the Black and
Mediterranean seas - has been a goal of Russian
governments dating back to imperial times. Now the
idea is being revived, helped by Eurasian
Development Bank funding. Questions such as where
the water will come from remain. - Roman Muzalevsky (Oct 14,
'10)
BP,
Azerbaijan seal offshore gas
contract
Azerbaijan's importance as a
center of natural gas production continues to
grow, with supplies to Russia once more doubling
and financing for the Nabucco pipeline project
moving ahead. Now the country's output prospects
are set to expand even further, with BP's
agreement to develop the Shafag-Asiman offshore
project. - R M Cutler
(Oct 14, '10)
THE ROVING
EYE
Betting
and bluffing in the new Great Game
With natural gas flowing from
Turkmenistan and the promise of Iraqi oil arriving
in the next few years, China is methodically
building up the energy supplies its voracious
economy will need in the future. And unlike its
rival the United States, Beijing is guaranteeing
its future without deploying its military. - Pepe Escobar (Oct 13,
'10)
CNPC
adds fuel to Turkmen ties
China National Petroleum
Corp's discovery of another gas field in
Turkmenistan adds a further link in the energy
chain that binds the two countries. At the same
time, progress in planning a gas pipeline across
Afghanistan underlines Turkmen determination to
broaden its customer base. - Robert M Cutler (Oct 7,
'10)
Medvedev,
Putin on
separate roads to
nowhere
Russian President Dmitry
Medvedev's determined backing of the Skolkovo
"innovative city" project and Prime Minister
Vladimir Putin's plans for the economy outlined in
the state budget for 2011-2013 reflect different
attitudes but also their common failure to
recognize reality. - Pavel
K Baev (Oct 7, '10)
Tajikistan
struggles to quell militants
Growing unrest in
Tajikistan's eastern mountains, which last month
saw 25 government troops killed, is being blamed
on ex-guerrilla commanders. Though claims of
responsibility from the Taliban-backed Islamic
Movement of Uzbekistan have been dismissed, if
their involvement is proved, the security crisis
could be significantly heightened. - Lola Olimova and Nargis Hamrabaeva (Oct 6,
'10)
Russia's
season for summits
Russia has been invited to
two summits with the West in the weeks ahead,
ostensibly to discuss security cooperation in
areas like Afghanistan. But the real motivation
for the United States and its European allies is
to try and deflect Moscow from an ongoing
reorientation towards China because of its energy
market. - M K
Bhadrakumar (Oct 1, '10)
Kazakhstan
continues economic recovery
Currency devaluation and
banking reforms appear to have set Kazakhstan
strongly on the road to recovery. A ministerial
shake-up, which appears more rational than
President Nursultan Nazarbayev's usual
reorganizations, and higher oil export duties next
year, should help to maintain the economy's
strength. - Robert M
Cutler (Sep 30, '10)
Karpov
staring at checkmate
Russian grandmaster Anatoly
Karpov, who spent more than two decades at the
pinnacle of the world chess elite, faces one of
his toughest battles in trying to unseat the head
of the World Chess Federation, Kirsan Ilyumzhinov,
a multi-millionaire Buddhist politician who claims
to have had a close encounter with space aliens. -
Daisy Sindelar (Sep 28,
'10)
Russian
gold mine lost in the past
Russian miner Pavel Maslovsky
is seeking to raise cash in the Hong Kong market
through an initial public offering of shares in
his latest company, IRC, a business focused on
non-precious metals such as iron ore. Absent from
the prospectus is any mention of Tokur Gold, a
Maslovsky company ordered into bankruptcy by a
Russian court a decade ago. John Helmer (Sep 28,
'10)
Kyrgyzstan's
Rosa at the heart of the matter
President Barack Obama's
decision to hold a meeting with Kyrgyz President
Rosa Otunbayeva, whose country has a mere 5
million people, reflects Kyrgyzstan's strategic
location at the heart of Central Asia - and more.
The meeting immediately follows a major rebuff for
Russia in the region and signals how crucial
Kyrgyzstan is now for US foreign policy. - M K Bhadrakumar (Sep 24,
'10)
Turkmenistan
signals Nabucco intentions
Turkmenistan's growing
network of gas pipelines can be confusing, even to
President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow, but his
optimistic view of the proposed Nabucco feed to
Europe is becoming ever clearer. So is the
country's determination to achieve autonomy in its
choice of customers - be they to the north, south,
east or west. - Robert M
Cutler (Sep 23, '10)
Kyrgyzstan
weighs customs union entry
Membership of a regional
customs union would likely boost Kyrgyzstan's
trade with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. But
higher duties on imports from elsewhere might also
undermine Kyrgyzstan's position as the main entry
point in the region for Chinese goods. - Asyl Osmonalieva (Sep 22,
'10)
Price
spikes raise food concerns
Global prices of wheat and
other staples are rising again after declines
earlier this year. That could mean even higher
costs for consumers in countries where floods,
riots and insurrection can already drive up food
costs independent of world trends. - Matthew O Berger (Sep 22,
'10)
Putin
looks sour loser on Nabucco
Russian Premier Vladimir
Putin's efforts to decry the validity of the
Nabucco gas pipeline sound in their acrimonious
tone and in their content like arguments of
despair as funding and planning for the Caspian to
Europe link take further shape. - Vladimir Socor (Sep 16,
'10)
Israel
joins Russian ballet school
The military agreement
between Israel and Russia signed this week began a
pas de deux that
promises to be an absorbing aspect of geopolitics
in the Middle East. Anything is possible for a
pair untainted by idealism in their foreign
policies. The pirouette is already stunning, as
shown by Israel seeking to moderate Russia's
military ties with Syria and Iran. - M K Bhadrakumar (Sep 10,
'10)
Rusal
tries serving up yuan bonds
Bare months after serving up
shares in his Rusal aluminum company to Hong Kong
investors, Oleg Deripaska is putting yuan bonds on
the menu. But the garnishes required by the
Russian oligarch are of a different order to those
that sweetened US fast-food giant McDonald's
recent yuan bond offering. - John Helmer (Sep 9,
'10)
Kremlin's
bad bread day
As bread prices soar in
Russia, the Kremlin is targeting "profiteers" and
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin hints at a prolonged
wheat export ban. If only life were so simple, but
with elections imminent, complications such as
loss-making grain giant Razgulyai facing possibly
tricky tax discussions just get in the way.
Nikolai Bukharin would have recognized it all. -
John Helmer (Sep 7,
'10)
Inspectors
miss the flight to Kyrgyzstan
The US's standing in Central
Asia has taken a big hit after Kyrgyzstan's
interim President Roza Otunbayeva, under pressure
from nationalists, shut the door on its idea for a
European-led security mission to keep peace
between Uzbek and Kyrgyz communities. Talks this
week underscore that US policy can be salvaged
only with sincere Russian help. But Moscow is
brooding. - M K
Bhadrakumar (Sep 3, '10)
Deripaska
on US mission
Russian oligarch Oleg
Deripaska is to seek the backing of institutional
investors in the United States for his hostile
takeover bid for Norilsk Nickel. Echoing in the
background is Russian Prime Minister Vladimir
Putin's recent warning on how company profits
should not be disbursed, and his approval of
shareholders when they "are not greedy, not mean,
not argumentative". - John
Helmer (Sep 3, '10)
Clawing
back credibility in Kyrgyzstan
The United States and Russia
have a key role to play in Kyrgyzstan’s fragile
attempts to become the first functioning democracy
in Central Asia. Many Kyrgyz still suspect,
however, that the US is merely continuing its
obsessive pursuit of strategic assets in the
region, while for Moscow securing the
former-Soviet space against religious extremists
takes priority. - Yong
Kwon (Sep 2, '10)
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