The Bahraini government officially accused Hezbollah of helping train anti-government opposition in an official report sent to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon. The report claims that the group has been training opposition figures at camps in both Lebanon and Iran and also accuses them of targeting other Gulf nations as well. Bahrain also claims that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah of meeting with senior leaders of Bahrain’s largest Shi’ite opposition group al-Wefaq and the banned al-Haq group. Hezbollah, Iran, and the Shi’ite opposition groups accused of complicity have all denied the charges. The U.S. State Department has said it believes Iran’s role in the unrest in Bahrain has been minimal and that protests reflect “home-grown frustrations” of the long marginalized Bahraini Shi’a community.
Writing at Foreign Policy, Parag Khanna notes the new age of Pan-Arabism that is characterized by societies demanding good governance and an inclusive political process. He states that the anti-authoritarian revolutions are “truly borderless” following Al Jazeera’s shaming of Arab autocrats — with the exception of Bahrain — and young activists training together across the region. Khanna also highlights the Arab League’s backing of a no-fly zone in Libya and considerations of peacekeeping forces for Palestine and Lebanon as “examples of a meaningful transnational Arab political sphere coming into being.” Khanna states that “the next great step toward a new Arab renaissance will come through physically overcoming the region’s arbitrary political borders” following the model of the European Union which has moved towards investing in cross-border infrastructure. He states that the Gulf countries could easily finance projects such as the Palestinian Arc project and trans-Arab transport corridors.
Last week, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy hosted an event entitled, “Lebanon Today: Internal Politics and the Arab Spring.” Speaking at the event were May Chidiac, president of MCF Media Institute; Michael Young, opinion editor for the Beirut Daily Star; Hisham Melhem, Washington bureau chief of Al-Arabiya; and Michael Doran, visiting professor at New York University’s Wagner School of Public Service.
May Chidiac noted how protests in the Arab world echo “the spirit of the Lebanese model” as they abandoned anti-Israel and anti-West rhetoric for legitimate demands of good governance, economic opportunities and political freedom. Chidiac also called for the U.S. and international community to support the March 14th movement. Michael Young discussed three lessons for the Arab Spring from Lebanon: first, that foreign intervention is often necessary for liberation movements to succeed; second, the liberation may clash with Western interests; and third, the importance of luck. Young discussed how many in the Arab world fail to acknowledge the importance of the 2005 emancipation as they see a weak Syria as advantageous to the West and Israel. Hisham Melham stated that the Arab Spring differs from the events in Lebanon in 2005 as they represent a social and political revolution rather than an emancipation from foreign occupation. He also notes the reversion to sectarianism in Lebanon. Melham also called on the Obama Administration to take a stronger stance on the situation in Syria. Melham along with Michael Doran argued that regime change in Syria could benefit the U.S. as it would improve dynamics with Lebanon, Palestine, Israel and Iraq.
Nabih Berri, Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, has said he is optimistic that Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati’s new cabinet will be officially formed shortly after the Easter holiday. The speaker said that most of the “thorny issues” has been resolved and that negotiations were focusing on “final touches.” The formation of a new government has been in a three month long deadlock with political infighting over specific cabinet portfolios and Christian representation in the cabinet. The new cabinet will have 30 ministerial posts, nine of which will be shared by Hezbollah, the Amal Movement, and the Hezbollah led March 8 movement.
Al Hayat editor Ghassan Charbelwrote an op-ed on Wednesday, lamenting that in spite of its own history of liberal freedoms, Lebanon has been inactive in the Arab Spring. He writes, “How Lebanon seems to be a failure today in the face of the Arab revolutions, the dreams of change, others heading toward the future or the search for it…” He points to a recent meeting between Maronite leaders as indicative of a potential social reconciliation, which would be necessary for any national democratic movement.
After a violent crackdown on Sunday protests left up to 17 dead in Homs, thousands poured into the streets on Monday in funeral rallies to mourn the victims. More videos of Monday’s protests can be viewed at The New York Times blog The Lede. Meanwhile, Hezbollah expressed its support for embattled Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on Monday. Hezbollah MP Nawwaf Moussawi said that stability in Syria is essential for Lebanon.
Update: The New York Times reports that up to 10,000 people took part in the funeral protests on Monday in Homs.
On Monday, the Bahraini security forces released 86 detainees following legal procedures taken according to royal decree 18 regarding the State of National Safety. However, the government also expelled more than 15 Lebanese people living in Bahrain following a speech by Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in which he expressed support for the Bahraini opposition’s demands. Authorities also stripped more than a dozen Lebanese of their work and residency protests for “security reasons.” Lebanon’s ambassador to Bahrain, Aziz Azzi stated that “the Lebanese Embassy was not officially notified of these steps…the authorities directly contacted the individuals that were asked to leave.” A Facebook page has also been created (Arabic) to enlarge pictures of people who are at protests asking people to identify them, so that they can be arrested.
The Senate Committee on Foreign Relations held an open nomination hearing to confirm the appointments of Mara E. Rudman, to be Assistant Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development for the Middle East, and Robert Patterson, to be Ambassador to Turkmenistan. Senator Robert P. Casey Jr. (D-PA) presided over the nomination hearing.
As part of a Jadaliyya Roundtable, editors of the blog asked analysts Steven Heydemann, Fred Lawson, David Lesch and Patrick Seale to respond to a series of questions on the current situation in Syria. In part two of the roundtable, contributors were asked to respond to the following question: ”What do you consider to be missing or exaggerated in the discussion/writings/policy on the Syrian uprisings?”
In response, Heydemann states that the current debate in Washington seems to reflect revived dreams of “‘flipping’ Syria through regime change, and re-defining the regional balance of power in ways that would work decisively to America’s advantage.” They ignore, however, the realities of what democratic transition in Syria would look like. He calls for a long-term approach in which the U.S. helps develop the capacity of the Syrian opposition and also noted Syria’s history of republican government in the 1940s and 1950s. Lawson notes that many have seemed to ignore reports that protests began in these small towns not due to local grievances and not grievances against the regime. He also questions the role of economic strain of the drought and industrial, commercial and agricultural circumstances as drivers of protests. Lesch notes the exclusive coverage of the extreme anti-government groups and pro-government groups, and states that in reality it will be the silent majority — including different elite groups — that will determine the course. Seale argues that analysts have ignored the mind-set of Bashar Al Assad who feels a sense of pride for enduring “the many crises he has had to deal with in his decade of power” and the legitimacy he has gained for his anti-Israel and anti-West sentiments. He stated in his speech that he had other priorities to be concerned with such as stability and protection of citizens and apologized for failing to enact reform.
As part of a Jadaliyya Roundtable, editors of the blog asked analysts Steven Heydemann, Fred Lawson, David Lesch and Patrick Seale to respond to a series of questions on the current situation in Syria. Addressing the first question on what factors are pivotal in determining the course of events in Syria and if they believe the opposition movement will be successful, Heydemann responded by discussing the obstacles facing the opposition as “the wall of fear in Syria remains largely intact” as many fear what the regime’s response will be and the risks of instability if Bashar Al Assad is removed from power. Additionally, he notes that the protests have not yet converged into a coherent opposition. Lawson stated that events will be determined by the response of the security apparatus and whether the armed forces are loyal to Assad. He notes however, that unlike Egypt, there’s not a significant divergence between the two groups and discusses how the Ba’ath Party has taken root in a number of teacher, student, and farm laborer federations. He also notes how the trade unions in Syria have remained quiet while they are a source of activism in Egypt. Lesch stated that “the most important single element in determining the course of current events in Syria is President Bashar al-Asad.” He called on Assad to lead and “create a critical mass of support behind meaningful reforms” before the opposition converges and calls for his ouster. It is unlikely that he will take this road, however. Seale notes that the pivotal factor will be the cohesion of the regime versus the cohesion of the opposition and discusses the strength of the regime and the new steps it is taking to address protesters demands such as appointing a committee studying the emergency law, holding security officers accountable for shooting protesters, and reviewing the 1962 consensus.
On Thursday, the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations held a hearing on the implications of uprisings in the Middle East has on U.S. policy. The Committee—chaired by Senator John Kerry (D-MA) – with ranking member Senator Dick Lugar (R-IN) in attendance –requested the testimony of William J. Burns, Under Secretary for Political Affairs.
To read full notes, continue below or click here for pdf.
On Thursday the Brookings Institute hosted an event focused on the recent trip of Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) and Sen. Joseph Lieberman (I-CT) to the Middle East entitled: “Revolution in the Middle East: A Trip Report by Senator John McCain and Senator Joseph Lieberman.” The event was opened by Strobe Talbott, President of the Brookings Institute and moderated by Robert Kagan, a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institute.
For full notes, continue below. Click here for pdf.
On Tuesday, the House Committee on Foreign Affairs held an open hearing to assess U.S. foreign policy priorities in light of the country’s current economic challenges. The Committee — chaired by Congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL) and with Congressman Howard L. Berman (D-CA) in attendance — requested the testimony of U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
To see full notes, continue below or click here for pdf. To see webcast, click here.
Democrats namedSusan Davis (CA) and Gwen Moore (WI) to the House Democracy Partnership (HDP), a bipartisan commission of the U.S. House of Representatives that works directly with 14 partner countries, including Lebanon, “to support the development of effective, independent, and responsive legislative institutions.” Other members of the commission include: David Drier (R-CA), Jeff Fortenberry (R-NE), Judy Biggert (R-IL), Charles Boustany Jr. (R-LA), Michael Conaway (R-TX), Vern Buchanan (R-FL), Ander Crenshaw (R-FL), Joe Wilson (R-SC), Mario Diaz-Balart (R-FL), Peter Roskam (R-IL), David Price (D-NC), Lois Capps (D-CA), Rush Holt (D-NJ), Sam Farr (D-CA), Keith Ellison (D-MN), Mazie Hirono (D-HI), and Lucille Roybal-Allard (D-CA).
On Sunday, hundreds of people rallied in Beirut to protest the country’s complicated power-sharing confessional system which divides political power amongst the country’s 18 different religious sects. The protesters called for a civil-secular state that guarantees religious diversity and social justice. Many, including some of the protesters at the rally, blame the current political system as the root cause of corruption and violence in Lebanon. One counter demonstrator however questioned the abandonment of the confessional system asking: “How can I be sure that my group enjoys full rights if the system is removed?”
Majdoline Hatoum, writing at the Arab Reform Bulletin, discusses the difficult road ahead for Lebanese PM-designate Najib Mikati as he attempts to form a new cabinet strong enough to endure the political turmoil expected to following the release of the UN’s Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL)’s report. Former PM Saad Hariri and the March 14 coalition has labeled Mikati as a tool of Hezbollah, placing Mikati in a difficult position as he attempts to form a national unity government. The coalition has refused to join the cabinet unless Mikati commits to respecting the STL’s findings, which he has thus far refused. General Michel Aoun, Hezbollah’s main Christian ally, is also insisting on choosing a new interior minister, which until now has been the prerogative of President Michel Sleiman. Hatoum notes that if Aoun’s request is met, it could mean a new era for the ministry which has been independent under Interior Minister Ziad Baroud, who is regarded as a champion for civil society and democracy. Hezbollah, which has supported Mikati, has been adamant that it wants the memorandum of understanding signed with the STL revoked. However, Mikati’s views on the tribunal and commitments he has made to Hezbollah remain unclear. Many Lebanese fear that failure to cooperate with the tribunal may lead to economic sanctions, which is especially concerning given the country’s $53 billion debt. Mikati will need to address the country’s economic concerns with a series of reforms; however, as Hatoum states, “passing such reforms requires political stability…which is likely to remain elsuive in light of the deep political polarization in the country.”
In a speech on Monday commemorating the 6th anniversary of his father’s (former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri) assassination, outgoing PM Saad Haririannounced that his party would be joining the opposition. He also directly challenged Hezbollah, accusing the group of having used the threat of violence to assume power: “Those who are in the leadership position now used their weapons to get there. So good for them. Congratulations on the stolen position.” Hariri spoke to a crowd of about 6,000 people.
U.S. Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, released a statement calling Rafik Hariri a symbol for Lebanon: “He transcended sect and stood with the people of Lebanon, giving hope to his country after 15 years of ruinous civil war.” The statement also called on the new Lebanese government to honor its obligations to the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) and promote justice for the Lebanese people: “Those who would try to block Lebanon’s cooperation should desist and show a measure of human decency. Ultimately, without justice, there can be no peace and stability for Lebanon.”
The House Committee on Foreign Affairs hosted Part 2 of a hearing on recent political developments in Egypt and Lebanon and their implications on U.S. policy in the region. The hearing was moderated by committee chair Congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen with comments and questions from House Representatives Howard L. Berman (D-CA), Steve Chabot (R-OH), Gary L. Ackerman (D-NY), Ann Marie Buerkle (R-NY), Chris Smith (D-NJ), Gregory W. Meeks (D-NY), David Rivera (R-FL), Theodore E. Deutch (D-FL), Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA), William Keating (D-MA), Dan Burton (R-IN), David Ciciline (D-RI), Edward R. Royce (R-CA), Eliot L. Engel (D-NY), Donald A. Manzullo (R-IL), Jeff Duncan (R-SC), Christopher S. Murphy (D-CT), and Mike Pence (R-IN). Deputy Secretary of the State Department James B. Steinberg testified before the committee.
For a full transcript of Deputy Secretary Steinberg’s testimony, click here.
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The House Committee on Foreign Affairs held an open hearing on Wednesday, focused on the future of Egypt and Lebanon in light of recent political instability in Lebanon and unrest in Eygpt. To discuss the issues facing these countries and the region, the committee – chaired by Congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL) and with Congressman Howard L. Berman (D-CA) in attendance – requested the testimony of three individuals: Elliott Abrams Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations; Lorne Craner, president of the International Republican Institute and former Assistant Secretary of State; Dr. Robert Satloff, Executive Director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
