US Hands Over Manas to Kyrgyzstan

In a ceremony today, the US handed over to Kyrgyzstan the US-run Manas Transit Center; which has been used as a logistical and staging base for the war in Afghanistan. Last year, the Kyrgyz Parliament, pressured by Russia,ave the US until this summer to withdraw. drawdown in Afghanistan means that Manas is less critical to the US effort, but the handover reflects Russia's increasing influence in former Soviet states.

Clinton: We'll Reconsider Manas Air Base Role in 2014

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, visiting the Manas Air Base in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, has indicated that the US presence on the base will be reconsidered once US forces disengage from Afghanistan in 2014, as they hope to do. She indicated that a key jet fuel contract would go to a Kyrgyz company, obviously a sweetener for keeping the base, which has been a real bargaining chip between the US and Russia and Kyrgyzstan, where internal dynamics and foreign politics have kept the fate of Manas, a key logistical support base for the Afghan War, in play.

Among her comments:

Well, it is great to see all of you here and thanks for letting me come by and say thank you. Colonel, thanks for those kind words and it’s a great opportunity – I can see some Christmas decorations already going up back there – to express to you our appreciation for what you do every single day on behalf of our country. I just had some good visits with the president [Roza Otunbayeva, shown in pic above left with Clinton] and other officials of the government here, and then I just had the opportunity to meet with a large group of students and take a lot of questions about the United States, about our policies, about this air base, and to tell the people of Kyrgyzstan that we are going to support them as they try to establish a democratic state.

This has been a challenging year for them, and the United States has been with them, providing humanitarian assistance and other support, and we will continue to do so. They live in a region where there is not very much democracy, as you know. And part of our strong belief is that the United States has demonstrated conclusively that a democratic system that establishes the rule of law, that respects diversity, that gives people a chance to live their dreams, is by far the better system for anybody. It doesn’t matter where your country is or who you are or what your background might be.

And that’s part of the reason why you’re here. I want to thank the men and women of the 376th Air Expeditionary Wing. I want to thank all of our soldiers, sailors, Marines, and airmen who are in transit to or from Afghanistan. We greatly appreciate what you’re doing. We think it is of critical benefit to advance the interests and the security of the United States, but also of countries like Kyrgyzstan and this region as well.

Ethnicity and Identity in Kyrgyzstan and Elsewhere

The Registan blog, a good go-to for Central Asia, has this post on how the ethnic conflict in Kyrgyzstan is being reported. Taking off from a NYT article that seems to say that it isn't an ethnic conflict but a class one, it finds that too simplistic an explanation.

The author shows quite a bit of reportage seeking to downplay the ethnic factor, and argues that it is off target if well-meaning. So what if Kyrgyz and Uzbek are mutually comprehensible Turkic languages? The Middle East has plenty of examples of ethnic groups who are hostile despite speaking exactly the same language, and I suspect Central Asia does too. I'll let you read the post for Kyrgyzstan, which I know almost nothing about, but wanted to reflect a bit on how awkward talk about ethnicity can be.

Of course, ethnicity is always a slippery subject. We've thankfully come a long way from the old days of categorizing "races" by measuring skulls and noses; but what is ethnicity exactly? I'll let the anthropologists answer, but in practical terms it usually means the language one speaks. In terms of body type etc., most North Africans appear to be of Berber descent, but only those who speak Tamazight or other Berber languages consider themselves Amazighen. It gets more complicated when we speak, as in Iraq, of "Kurds, Sunnis and Shi‘ites" as if they were three ethnic groups. In the first place, the phrase is shorthand for "Kurds, Sunni Arabs, and Shi‘ite Arabs," and there are both Sunni and Shi‘ite Kurds as well (not to mention Yazidis . . .). Sunni and Shi‘ite Arabs are indistinguishable ethnically and linguistically (for the most part, excluding a minority of Persian-speakers), so it really is a religious or communal rather than an ethnic distinction. Are the Druze and ethnic or a religious group?

I guess the main issue, really, is how one identifies oneself. There are plenty of mixed marriages across communal, ethnic, and religious boundaries, yet in most Middle Eastern countries one's communal identity is important (and in Lebanon, has official resonance), and to some extent, may involve choices.

I don't know if the Kyrgyz attacking Uzbeks in Osh are doing so because of ethnicity, class, economic role in society, or what, and I'm not sure in the heat of the moment, they are sure themselves. What's fairly clear is there is an "us" versus "them" at work here. And clearly, things have been bad in Kyrgyzstan lately, whatever label we may put on it.

Swisher on Kyrgyzstan

Clayton Swisher, a former colleague at MEI who's now a correspondent for Al Jazeera English, writing on the Kyrgyzstan bloodshed at Al-Jazeera's Asia blog.

And while I'm at it, here's one of his reports from Bishkek:

Kyrgyzstan again: the Ferghana as a Border Nightmare

During the earlier round of Kyrgyzstan violence, I noted that the map of the country explains why ethnic explosions are so common — including the anti-Uzbek riots of the present outbreak and the outflow of Uzbek refugees from Kyrgyzstan. The Ferghana Valley, once the heartland of Muslim Central Asia, is divided among Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, and if that weren;t awkward enough, the Uzbek and Tajik parts cut so deeply into Kyrgyzstan as to make it look like a snapping turtle with its mouth open, the northern and southern parts so separated as to require a considerable detour to go from one to the other when international borders are closed:

It's like an invitation to ethnic cleansing: minorities have fellow ethnics just over the border in one direction or another, and everyone blames everyone else. (And Kazakhstan barely missed out on the fun.)

This article pretty much blames it all on Joe Stalin. I think that's fairly accurate, but doesn't do much about rectifying the problem.

Bakiyev in Belarus

Though the last I heard he was still insisting he was the democratically elected President of Kyrgyzstan, Kurmanbek Bakiyev, has decided to take up asylum in that citadel of democracy, Belarus. That eminent democrat Alexander Lukashenko, so beloved of those folks who still miss Stalin even though he was a little soft at times, says he'll be safe there.

I imagine he will. No color revolutions in Minsk. Color is the enemy of the state. There's probably a Yakov Smirnoff joke here but I can't think of one right now.

More Trouble in Kyrgyzstan

After a period of consolidation, new violence has erupted in Kyrgyzstan. Bakiyev has left the country, but this isn't over yet.

Some Thoughts on Kyrgyzstan after 48 Hours

I don't intend to rush to judgment on the Kyrgyz revolution/revolt/civil war/coup d'etat/whatever after only 48 hours, but I think a few conclusions can be drawn, tentatively and assuming the provisional government holds on to power:

1. While the US keeps saying it doesn't see this as an anti-American change, Russia does seem to see it as a pro-Russian one. Russia was the first country to recognize the new government, whereas during the Tulip Revolution of 2005, it denounced the ouster of President Akayev as illegitimate. In fact, this is the first of the various color revolutions in the ex-Soviet space (Georgia, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan 2005) that Russia has applauded rather than denounced.
2. That may not augur well for the future of Manas. (Kyrgyzstan is unique I think in that it hosts both an American and a Russian air base.) Bakiyev was going to oust Manas last year after a major Russian loan to Kyrgyzstan, but then when the US tripled the rent, he kept both bases. Now there's talk of revisiting the agreements and possibly shortening the lease, though everything is still up in the air.
3. Rome may not have been built in a day, but Bishkek fell in a day. From the outbreak of violence to the flight of Bakiyev from his capital was a sharp, violent day, though tensions had been building for a while. In fact, the Iranian opposition is already looking at the contrasts between their frustrated protests and Kyrgyzstan's remarkably successful ones.
4. The lingering tensions between the north (where the provisional government is most popular) and the south (Bakiyev's home base) also emphasize the geopolitical oddity that results from Kyrgyzstan's odd shape. As the map shows, the Ferghana Valley, the rich river valley famous in classical Islamic history, is divided among three countries: Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan, and the Uzbek and Tajik portions cut deep into western Kyrgyzstan, separating the north from the south. When tensions lead to border closings (and all three countries have had bouts of instability), communications between northern and southern Kyrgyzstan are disrupted. It's a relic of Soviet divide-and-rule gerrymandering combined with the fact that Uzbeks and Tajiks do live in the Ferghana valley as well as Kyrgyz. But when regional tensions are high, as they are right now, the geography is an exacerbating factor.
5. Let's not rush to jump to conclusions. Shots were still being heard in Bishkek I understand, and who controls what is still far from clear. Folks who don't know the country — and I definitely include myself — shouldn't be too quick to assume they understand the narrative. After the weekend it may make more sense.

Oh, and discussing the Ferghana Valley reminded me that my post of Wednesday on Kyrgyzstan news resources neglected one important one: the English pages of the website ferghana.ru. (Also available in Russian and Uzbek if you're able.)

GoogleAds Strikes Again

There are a lot of stories about GoogleAds (which throws up ads based on context of the web page, but which has done things like put ads for Muslim matchmaking services on Islamophobic sites and the like). It may vary from page load to page load, so linking doesn't work, but a screen capture does.

Today's BBC reporting on Kyrgyzstan has included headlines about "chaos," uncertainty, confusion, looting, and the like, and on several occasions has also displayed this ad:
I wonder if they're getting a lot of clicks. It is well timed for students looking for something different to do on spring break.

Update on Manas

The US has said that flights from Manas Air Base in Kyrgyzstan have been temporarily suspended; Acting Prime Minister Otunbayeva has said that the base can remain open though some issues will be looked at anew; more on the subject here; the Pentagon press release here; the Manas Transit Center's website is here.

Meanwhile, of course, we have an unstable situation with Bakiyev in the south claiming he's still President; a new government in Bishkek (in the north); and an uncertain situation in between. Stay tuned.

Roza Otunbayeva and the US

As I've been noting since the apparent success of the whatever-color-this-one-will-be-named-for Revolution in Kyrgyzstan, I'm not a Central Asianist. I doubt if I've actually ever met and talked to more than two or three Kyrgyzstanis (though I know Americans who've served there in diplomatic or military capacities). Oddly enough, one of those two or three that I've met and talked to seems to be the new Acting Prime Minister of the interim "People's Government" that controls the capital of Bishkek and perhaps at least the northern part of the country.

Roza Otunbayeva was Kyrgyzstan's first Ambassador to the United States back in the 1990s after the implosion of the Soviet Union. I was running my own newsletter at the time, and was approached by some retired US diplomats about possibly starting one on Central Asia. Nothing ever came of it except for a series of meetings with Central Asian diplomats, including on one occasion, Ambassador Otunbayeva. She's since served as Foreign Minister on a couple of occasions, was instrumental in the Tulip Revolution of 2005, and later went into opposition.

She seems to have a reputation for professionalism in a country increasingly dominated by corrupt local criminal gangs factions. She certainly knows the United States well. But there seems to be a perception among many Central Asia experts that the US supported the increasingly repressive and corrupt Bakiyev regime in order to hold on to the base at Manas, which was threatened with closure by the Kyrgyz Parliament last year (my posts on Manas are collected here); I hope if the new government manages to consolidate, US support for Bakiyev doesn't translate into a new anti-Americanism. Otunbayeva's knowledge of the US is a plus; but once again we have allied ourselves with a pretty edgy regime for broader geopolitical reasons, and may pay a price.

Kyrgyzstan News Resources and Videos

I am not a Central Asianist, but given the importance of Kyrgyzstan to the US (due to Manas, Manas, and Manas, but mostly Manas), I thought I'd offer a few useful links for those looking for background or current news updates on what seems to have been another ex-Soviet "color revolution" (their last one was Tulip: what will this one be?):

• Eurasianet.org's Kyrgyzstan headlines page is a good aggregator;
  
• Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty covers it at their main site and with Kyrgyz news collected here;
  
• The Registan group blog, which concentrates on Central Asia; note particularly this post on how the Internet has been more central to this upheaval than to the "Tulip Revolution" in 2005.
• The Russian English-language news RT (Russia Today) is following events there; their YouTube channel is here;
  
• The BBC of course;
• Voice of America's Asia coverage;
• On Twitter, #Kyrgyzstan, #kyrgyzstan, #kyrgyz, and #bishkek all seem pretty active.

Some video reports. Al-Jazeera English is reporting that President Bakiyev has left Bishkek and has "relocated" to Osh, his power base:



Two English language news reports with dramatic video from RT's YouTube channel:

Bakiyev Toppled in Kyrgyzstan?

There are reports that President Bakiev (Bakiyev) has fled Bishkek after several days of protests; opposition leader former Foreign Minister Roza Otumbayeva is reportedly claiming to be in charge of a provisional government.

Given the fact that the US use of the base at Manas has been critical to the Afghan war, instability in Kyrgyzstan could prove important. More as the situation clarifies.

Manas Airbase Extension

Remember how the Kyrgyz government had ordered the US out of Manas Airbase in Bishkek? Earlier postings on the subject are here. Back in February Parliament voted 78-1 against the base and gave us six months to leave.

Well, never mind. Last Thursday the Kyrgyz Parliament ratified a new extension agreement, which still needs to be signed by the President.

Oh, yes: the US payment has gone from $17.4 million a year to $60 million a year. I guess that tells us what this dispute was really about all along.

The Vote on Manas

Despite reports suggesting the issue might be delayed, the Kyrgyzstan Parliament has voted 78-1 to close the Manas Air Base. The US will have six months to withdraw under the terms of the basing agreement.

The US is understood to be exploring possible agreements with Uzbekistan and Tajikistan for logistial support for the Afghan War. The US withdrew previous facilities in Uzbekistan to protest an internal Uzbek crackdown. Russia is perceived as having pressured Kyrgyzstan to close the base, despite Russian concerns about radical Islamic movements on its southern borders.

Expect a lot of maneuvering in the wake of this move: there are already complaints in the US about prospects for renewed cooperation with the Uzbek regime.

The Manas Story Continues to Develop

The behind-the-scenes maneuvering over the Manas Air Base (earlier postings here) gets another twist: a Kyrgyz politician not only says that the US may well stay at Manas, but adds that the issue will be worked out between Washington and Moscow, not Washington and Bishkek.

Ah, the Great Game's afoot again. Lord Curzon would be impressed. Russia seems to have shown its power here by pressuring Kyrgyzstan, but then perhaps realized that undercutting US operations in Afghanistan is not exactly in Russia's long-term interest if it helps the Taliban, so now Russia is going to deal directly, as the regional great power, with the US. At least that's one possible reading. As I've noted before, Manas is a critical logistical support base for the Afghan operation, especially with growing pressures on the land supply routes through Pakistan. The message is clear: if you want to play in Russia's back yard, work it out with Russia directly. At least that's what this story seems to suggest.

Manas Air Base: Is the Suq Open for Business?

Hmm...It seems the Kyrgyz Parliament may not vote on kicking the US out of Manas Air Base until April. That suggests to me that the suq is open for bargaining, and the US may be able to raise the bidding.

For earlier background on the threatened base closing, see this post.

Kyrgyz Threat to US Base at Manas

It looks like the "Great Game" in Central Asia may be on again. Suddenly over the past couple of days the President and Parliament of Kyrgyzstan have begun moves aimed at eliminating the US Air Base at Manas near the capital of Bishkek. Manas is a key logistical support base for US operations in Afghanistan, and the threat of losing it could have a profound impact on US and NATO operations there.

For more on Manas consult the air base's own home page here, and/or the Wikipedia write-up here.

The move seems to be a reaction to Russian efforts to oust the US from Kyrgyzstan and may be an attempt to play the US against Russia; an account by a Central Asia-watching website here gives some of the political background.

This definitely bears watching. Loss of Manas, coupled with ongoing uncertaities in Pakistan and a drawdown in Iraq, could pose real challenges to US intentions to ramp up operations in Afghanistan. Military pros have always said "Amateurs talk about strategy; professionals talk about logistics," and Manas is a major player in the logistical tail for the Afghan operation.