Better Late than Never:

Those with long memories may remember an event last July when a Japanese tanker suffered damage from — something that exploded. Mine? Shell? Torpedo? Collision? At first there was a lot of denial, but evetually it was interpreted as a potential terrorist attack. My earlier posts are here.

Now the United States has weighed in and warned that it was a terrorist attack.

I'm sure the world's tanker traffic is grateful to know this. Four months later. To be fair, though, everyone concerned with oil security has been aware of this for some time.

Was it a Mine? An RPG? A Submarine Collision?

More and more, it sounds as if the authorities believe the damage to the Japanese tanker was an external hostile act, though its exact nature is unclear.

Lloyd's List, the shippintg daily, is reporting it may have been a grenade; I'd assume they mean a rocket-propelled grenade, and a more detailed article is apparently behind a subscription wall; some other reports have said crewmen saw a flash of light before the explosion, which would imply some kind of rocket or missile. Somali pirates have used RPGs to seize ships. On the other hznd, one expert quoted in The National leans towards a mine, on the grounds RPG damage would be smaller and round. (A mine should have done more damage, but the article suggests it could be a 20-year-old mine from the tanker wars era of the late 1980s. But that wouldn't explain a flash of light beforehand.)

As this New York Times article notes, there is a history of submarine collisions in the shallow and narrow waters of the Gulf, with a US sub colliding with a Japanese tanker in 2007, and in 2009 another US sub collided with a US Navy surface vessel. But this time the US Navy says none of its subs were involved.

British and French subs often deploy to the Gulf, and Iran has three Kilo-class subs; Israel publicly sent one of its subs through the Suez Canal last year; published reports have suggested it might keep one sub in the region, at least in high tension periods.

Curiouser and Curiouser: Tanker "Was in a Collision"

AP is now reporting that the Director General of the Port of Fujairah is now saying the Japanese tanker M.Star was in some sort of collision (See previous story.) So thus far it has been attributed 1) to an explosion, 2) a big wave caused by a seismic event, and 3) now a collision with something unnamed. A Reuters report examines several possibilities including collision with a submarine.

Hmm. A supertanker loaded with crude can get dented badly in the Strait of Hormuz, and nearly a day later no one is sure what happened?

What Happened to the Japanese Tanker?

A Japanese tanker passing through the Gulf suffered what is described as an explosion yesterday as it was passing through the Strait of Hormuz, but the nature of it is unclear. AP (via Arab News) here, which acknowledges the Japanese firm suggested some sort of explosion; a fuller account in The National, here, along with the WAM (Emirates News Service) photo of the dent in the hull, which I reproduce here. The tanker, the M.Star, put into Fujairah after the blast.

Obviously, I have no special knowledge of what happened, but that sure looks like an external dent in the hull, which suggests she hit a mine or something similar, which also seems to be what the Japanese owners are suggesting.

The official explanations, however, are a bit strange:

The UAE’s state news agency, WAM, cited a UAE official as saying there was no possibility the damage was caused by an attack, adding that no trace of explosives was found on its outer body structure. It said a large wave that resulted from a “seismic shock” was responsible.

There was no unusual seismic activity in the region, according to a spokesman for the National Centre of Meteorology and Seismology.

The Omani transport ministry also attributed the damage to a large wave. “There’s no reason to suspect foul play,” a spokesman for the ministry said. “Our information from the Omani coast guard officers, who have been at the vessel, said that it was a strong wave that caused the damage. It has already docked in Fujairah for inspection.”

Dr Mustafa Alani, the senior adviser for security and terrorism at the Dubai-based Gulf Research Centre, said initial investigation will focus on the nature of the damage to the ship. “It’s very easy to tell if it’s an external attack or not from whether the damage is pushing inside or internal,” Dr Alani said.

So it's a seismic event, despite there being no record of seismic events? The BBC, however, is buying the "seismic event/giant wave" explanation, citing Iranian and Omani sources. So it may be a weird fluke of nature. Still, this may bear watching.