Ken Pollack on Ahmed Chalabi

I certainly haven't always agreed with Brookings' Ken Pollack on Iraq, though I respect him as an informed analyst. But I think his appreciation (or perhaps depreciation) of the late Ahmed Chalabi is right on target,

I will simply quote his lead and urge you to follow the link.

I first met him soon after the Persian Gulf War when I still worked for the CIA. I cannot remember if it was 1992 or 1993. I just remember that my immediate response after meeting him was that I wanted to take a shower. I could not believe that we were giving him money to try to overthrow Saddam Hussein. He was so unctuous, so obviously duplicitous and self-serving, I could not understand why anyone would buy what he was trying to sell.

More Solid Reading on Iraq

The other day I posted my "Readings on Iraq by People Who Know Something About Iraq."  James Fallows does something similar in The Atlantic, which has a lot more readers than I do: "What's Worth Reading About Iraq."

As it happens, our links are different, except for the same piece by Graham Fuller, so do read his as well. One of particular note is his link to a piece by William R. Polk with an introduction by Franklin C. Spinney. Bill Polk has been getting the Middle East mostly right since the 1950s. When I mentioned to my staff last year that I'd seen Polk during one of his occasional visits to DC (he lives in the French countryside, and is in his 80s), one of my younger staff members said, "I read his work as an undergraduate." To which I replied to someone some 40 years my junior, "Hell, I read his work as an undergraduate." He's written widely on US policy generally (he was involved with the Policy Planning Staff during the Cuban missile crisis) and on many aspects of the Arab world. But he's also a Harvard-trained historian whose first Middle East book, The Opening of South Lebanon 1788-1840: A Study of the Impact of the West on the Middle East (1963) is still a classic.

Oh, and don't miss this:

A (Sadly Only Slightly) Cynical Question

According to Wikipedia, on the US Embassy in Baghdad:

At 440,000 square meters, it is the largest and most expensive embassy in the world and is nearly as large as Vatican City. It employs 15,000 people and cost $750 million to build.

Sorry to be a bit snarky under the circumstances, but how many helicopters can land on the roof at at a time? (Young folks who don't recognize the picture, ask your elders.)

Riverbend Returns, At Least Briefly

During the early and middle years of the Iraq war, a female Iraqi blogger who called herself Riverbend became something of an Internet sensation in those pre-social media days. Her blog, Baghdad Burning,  began after the American invasion and continued until she and her family fled to Syria in 2007. Her  blog also was published in two books.

In conjunction with the 10th anniversary of the US occupation of Baghdad, she has posted one update after a six-year silence, which she says will likely be her last. She left Syria before the fighting got too bad, spent a year in another Arab country "nearby," and is now in still another Arab country, angry about the fate of Iraq.

Perhaps the last word we'll hear from a pioneer Middle East blogger. 

Richard Perle Agrees with Cheney and Rumsfeld: Twas a Famous Victory

Following previous comments by Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld, Richard Perle doesn't think we should question the wisdom of the Iraq war, though Iraq is sort of allied with Iran and Syria these days, telling an NPR interviewer (H/T Gary Sick):

“When you think about this, was it worth it?” she asked.
“I’ve got to say,” Perle responded, “I think that is not a reasonable question. What we did at the time was done in the belief that it was necessary to protect this nation. You can’t a decade later go back and say, well, we shouldn’t have done that.”

Robert Southey, "After Blenheim":

"My father lived at Blenheim then,
Yon little stream hard by;
They burnt his dwelling to the ground,
And he was forced to fly:	40
So with his wife and child he fled,
Nor had he where to rest his head.
"With fire and sword the country round
Was wasted far and wide,
And many a childing mother then	45
And newborn baby died:
But things like that, you know, must be
At every famous victory.
"They say it was a shocking sight
After the field was won,	50
For many thousand bodies here
Lay rotting in the sun;
But things like that, you know, must be
After a famous victory.
"Great praise the Duke of Marlbro' won,	55
And our good Prince Eugene"—
"Why 'twas a very wicked thing!"
Said little Welhelmine;
"Nay—nay, my little girl," quoth he,
"It was a famous victory.	60
"And everybody praised the Duke
Who this great fight did win"—
"But what good came of it at last?"
Quoth little Peterkin.
"Why that I cannot tell," said he,	65
"But 'twas a famous victory."

This is the first time Richard Perle has ever inspired me to quote one of the Romantic poets.

Lynch: What's Missing from the Iraq Debate?

Marc Lynch's latest needed to be said: "What's Missing from the Iraq Debate? Iraqis."

Exactly.

Iraq: Thoiughts Ten Years After

Everyone seems to feel an obligation to note the tenth anniversary of the Iraq War. All I have to say is that the most important lesson of all is not to repeat the fundamental mistake we made. What seemed at the time to be a convincing body of evidence of weapons of mass destruction (which never materialized) persuaded US political figures from both sides of the aisle to support a war that, delusionally, many felt would be quick, easy, and transform the Middle East. It was neither quick nor easy, and its regional impact has been quite different from those pipe dreams of 2003.

Now, especially, with the Iranian nuclear issue simmering away, would be a good time to remember that war is a last resort, not a first one, or should be for democratic states; that all wars have unintended consequences; and that serious intelligence analysis should base its conclusions on the evidence it gathers, not tailor the evidence to desired conclusions. Ten years and two wars later, that should be an obvious lesson, yet there are those who clearly haven't learned it yet.

Gregory Gause on Arab Politics Not Being About Us

On this day of the last debate between the US Presidential candidates &mdah; the one devoted to Foreign Policy — Gregory Gause has a piece at Foreign Policy  reminding anyone who will listen that "Arab Politics is Not All About Us"  in which he discusses the Romney critique of Obama's policies on Iraq and other issues in the Middle East. It's well-timed and well worth reading, though those who most need to read it probably won't.

A "Bright Day" for Iraq?

Nuri al-Maliki, the somewhat lame duck Iraqi Prime Minister, has called today "a bright day" for Iraq, saying "It's a day that Iraq gained back its sovereignty. Iraq is now its own master."

Well, maybe. There are still close to 50,000 US troops there, after all, and the formal end of combat5 operations today is a bit of an afterthought since the last combat brigade left earlier in the month.

President Obama will address the end of combat operations, though we certainly haven't seeen the last US casualty in Iraq. At least he won't don a flight suit, land on an aircraft carrier, and declare "Mission Accomplished," as was done the last time we declared combat operations ended (a tad prematurely).

Marc Lynch offers his take: "Why the Iraq Milestone Matters."

Juan Cole, meanwhile, writes "The Speech President Obama Should Give about the Iraq War (But Won't)."

Unlike Cole, I'm not sure I'm ready to assess all the rights and wrongs of the war just yet. It was a war of choice, and lasted longer than its proponents ever dreamed, but it did end a brutal; regime, albeit at high cost in Iraqi as well as American blood. Iraq is far more stabilized than it was a few years ago, but months after the elections, it still has no government. Perhaps it's best to reserve a final verdict, or to remember the reply reportedly given by Zhou Enlai when asked what he thought of the French Revolution: "It's too soon to tell."

Leaving Combat Missions in Iraq

With the departure of the 4th Stryker Brigade Combat Team, 2nd Infantry Division across the Kuwaiti border (the CENTCOM photo at right shows them leaving Baghdad), the US combat mission in Iraq is officially over, though no one is raising "Mission Accomplished" banners this time. With 50,000 troops still in-country on advisory and training missions, and the Air Force flying cover, US troops are by no means out of harm's way, and some may be tempted to call the whole thing a bit of a sham to comply with a campaign promise.

But it's more than that. I think Juan Cole gets it right in his post on the subject: the importance is to show the Arab world that our intentions are not to stay in Iraq, and that we really do intend to leave. (I may not agree with all the other points in Juan's post, but I agree on that one.) Our effort in Iraq is aimed at ending our mission, not extending it.

‘Allawi's Party Suspends Talks

‘Iyad ‘Allawi's ‘Iraqiyya Bloc in Iraq has suspended talks about a coalition government between itself and Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's State of Law Alliance, after Maliki reportedly called ‘Iraqiyya a Sunni bloc. It insists it is multi-sectarian (‘Allawi is a Shi‘ite).

After five months of stalemate, the failure to form a coalition threatens to cast a shadow over the US effort to emphasize the end of its combat role in Iraq by the end of August. (Of course the distinction between "combat troops" and training troops is a fine one, but it allows the US President to claim he has fulfilled a campaign promise.)

‘Allawi's bloc one 91 seats in Parliament, Maliki's 89.

Admiral Mullen Fudges a Question: Would US Shoot Down an Israeli Aircraft Overflying Iraq?

A young Air Force ROTC cadet at West Virginia U. asks the JCS chairman an awkward question: since we've declared Iraqi airspace a no-fly zone except for us and some commercial aviation, and since Israel would probably have to overfly Iraq to attack Iran's nuclear facilities, would the US shoot down Israeli aircraft?

Admiral Mullen of course said what he had to say: we don't address hypothetical questions, we have strong relations with Israel etc. etc.

I hope the AFROTC cadet enjoys doing his active duty at a radar station in northern Greenland or the South Pole, but it was a good question, wasn't it?

My own guess: they'd overfly Turkey or Saudi Arabia since their air defenses aren't as sophisticated as ours in Iraq, assuming they were doing it without informing us first and defying us. But I still doubt they'll actually do it.

The Iraqi Electoral Mess

The Vice Presidential veto of the Iraqi electoral law (or at least of parts of it) seems to have created a constitutional mess that may complicate holdine elections in January and thus the US drawdown that has been pegged to the elections. After careful thought I've concluded that I'm not well-enough informed on the issue to comment, but would refer you to Reidar Vissar's useful and detailed posts here and here, Juan Cole here, and an interview by Al-Jazeera English with Tariq al-Hashemi, the Vice President who cast the veto:



I gather there's an effort to hold a new vote on Saturday. I'm sure the US Embassy and General Odierno are paying very close attention. I think the key element to keep in mind (as a non-Iraq specialist) is that Hashemi is a Sunni (the three-man Presidential council consists of a Kurd, a Sunni and a Shi‘ite), and the dispute here is over the voting representation given to Iraqis abroad: the majority of whom are Sunnis.

The Big Bailout

Before my final signoff for the three-day weekend, let me call your attention to this post by Abu Muqawama on the withdrawal from Joint Base Balad in Iraq, which in turn links to this New York Times article. Key phrase: "It is the largest movement of soldiers and matériel in more than four decades, the military said." Forty years would make it the biggest movement since the buildup in Vietnam.

As for Andrew Exum's title "Amateurs and Professionals, Tactics and Logistics," I'm sure he's referencing the old saw that "Amateurs talk about strategy [sometimes, "tactics"]; professionals talk about logistics."

Iraq: We're Out a Day Early

Here I was trying to figure out what I was going to write tomorrow as the obligatory post about the final withdrawal from Iraq's cities, and General Odierno says it's already happened.

The Iraqis are celebrating National Sovereignty Day. As Marc Lynch noted today,

While I'm writing about this today because I just can't resist the sweet entreaties of our beloved editorial team, I don't actually think it's that big a deal. American forces have been drawing down in line with the Status of Forces Agreement expectations for months now --- it's not like tomorrow all of the Americans will suddenly click the heels of their ruby slippers and vanish in a puff of smoke.

He's right, but since I was planning on blogging it tomorrow, I'm not sure there's much more to say. US combat forces may be out of Baghdad, but we've still got Camp Victory sitting out at the International Airport. Sort of like withdrawing from Washington to redeploy at Tyson's Corner, though that will mean nothing to you outside-the-Beltway readers. This is an important symbolic step, but it sounds as if the actual transfers of power have been taking place over the past several weeks.

So unless something really big happens tomorrow, this will be my US-withdrawal-from-the-Iraqi-cities post.

Last Post for Britain in Basra

The pictures of the British 20th Armoured Brigade playing last post and lowering the Union Jack and brigade flag in Basra today naturally evoke earlier scenes of the retreat of Empire. (Do watch the BBC video if you can, though when I first did I had to watch some English ladies discussing detergent before I could see the transfer of command. Perhaps you'll get a more appropriate commercial.) Given Britain's history in Iraq in the 1920s and again in 1941, their presence there always had associations that ours would not evoke. Iraqis are very conscious of Britain's history in Iraq, though I think many Americans were oblivious. The UK has now ended all combat operations in Iraq.

Off the subject of Iraq, but on the subject of that moving bugle call The Last Post, which is played when they run the flag down and is almost as sad as Taps: I'm always reminded of a modern folk song about the carnage on the Western Front in World War I by Australian singer Eric Bogle, variously called The Green Fields of France, or Willie McBride, or sometimes No Man's Land, and sung a lot in Irish pubs in America, the chorus of which runs:

Did they Beat the drum slowly, did they play the pipes lowly?
Did the rifles fire o'er you as they lowered you down?
Did the bugles sound The Last Post in chorus?
Did the pipes play the Flowers of the Forest?

For the 179 British soldiers who died in the Iraq War, it was the Last Post indeed, adding more red to that thin red line of heroes, who often died for the wrong causes. May the American flag be lowered with the same honor and as little shame as possible given some of the recent revelations, as soon as possible without jeopardizing Iraq further. And however we feel about the war, and I'm no fan of this one, let's thank Tommy Atkins for his service to Queen and Country. Today's British Army is a volunteer force that's come a long way since the Victorian era, but I suspect some of the men and women who fought in Iraq, with popular opinion at home usually against their presence there, may empathize with Kipling's verse:

I went into a public-'ouse to get a pint o' beer,
The publican 'e up an' sez, "We serve no red-coats here."
The girls be'ind the bar they laughed an' giggled fit to die,
I outs into the street again an' to myself sez I:
O it's Tommy this, an' Tommy that, an' "Tommy, go away";
But it's "Thank you, Mister Atkins", when the band begins to play,
The band begins to play, my boys, the band begins to play,
O it's "Thank you, Mister Atkins", when the band begins to play.

I went into a theatre as sober as could be,
They gave a drunk civilian room, but 'adn't none for me;
They sent me to the gallery or round the music-'alls,
But when it comes to fightin', Lord! they'll shove me in the stalls!
For it's Tommy this, an' Tommy that, an' "Tommy, wait outside";
But it's "Special train for Atkins" when the trooper's on the tide,
The troopship's on the tide, my boys, the troopship's on the tide,
O it's "Special train for Atkins" when the trooper's on the tide.

I think the British role in Iraq was always unpopular at home, and given Britain's history in Iraq, provocative in Basra, but that doesn't change the fact that once again the (increasingly thinner) red line fought well (and you have to look hard to find the red flashes on a British uniform today), occupied pretty humanely, and lowered the flag with the Last Post, to go back home again. May they never need to return. And may we follow as soon as possible.

Kipling again, the poet laureate of Empire, but this time in Recessional, understood that Empire has its limits:

Far-call'd our navies melt away—
On dune and headland sinks the fire—
Lo, all our pomp of yesterday
Is one with Nineveh and Tyre!
Judge of the Nations, spare us yet,
Lest we forget, lest we forget!

Funny that Nineveh is in Iraq and Tyre in Lebanon.

It's time to play Last Post for Empire, I think. And Taps too.

Early Thoughts on the Iraq Drawdown

President Obama's announcement of details of the Iraq drawdown at Camp Lejeune today didn't add much to what had already leaked during the week, but a few comments may be in order:

• First, a residual force of 35,000 to 50,000, remaining in the country from August of 2010 until the deadline spelled out in the status of forces agreement, the end of 2011, keeps a significant force in Iraq for more than an additional year: up to a third of the total in Iraq at its peak.
• The Administration insists these are not combat troops but will be there in a training and advisory capacity. Those of us of a certain age remember the casualties our advisors took in Vietnam before we sent the first combat troops in; as General Petraeus at CENTCOM is well aware (having literally written the book, or rather the Field Manual, on Counterinsurgency), and as General Odierno, designer of the surge, is also well aware, in a counterinsurgency there are no front lines. In the age of the IED, everyone is a combat soldier. Our advisors will presumably include some assigned to Iraqi combat units. So what we are really looking at is a drawdown of deployed forces by two-thirds between now and next August, and reports indicate only about two brigades will be withdrawn before the end of this year.
• I think it is pretty well understood in Washington that Gates has wanted to draw down in Iraq since early in his term at the Pentagon; and let's remember that it was the Bush Administration that negotiated the Status of Forces Agreement setting a 2011 date for full departure, so the drawdown is really not a very radical one. But it does make it clear that the US plans to leave, and that may help defuse some of the fury in the Arab world about the US as an occupying power.