Report warns of impact on Medicaid

The analysis by the Kaiser Family Foundation and the Urban Institute concluded that Medicaid’s role as the nation’s safety net health care program would be “significantly compromised’’ under the GOP budget, “with no obvious alternative to take its place.’’

The budget passed by House Republicans last month on a party-line vote calls for sweeping health care changes, potentially even more significant than President Obama’s insurance overhaul. So far, most of the attention has gone to the part of the plan that would convert Medicare into a voucher-like system for future retirees. But Medicaid would also be transformed.

The Republican budget has no chance of passing the Democratic-led Senate, or being signed into law by Obama. But individual components could advance as part of debt reduction talks between Vice President Joe Biden and congressional leaders.

Conor Sweeney, a spokesman for Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, the author of the GOP budget, challenged the study’s assumptions. The Republican plan will allow Medicaid to grow “at a sustainable rate, so that the health care safety net will be there for those that need it most,’’ said Sweeney. Obama’s overhaul will force millions more into a broken system, relegating vulnerable people to second-class care, he said.

The federal-state partnership now covers more than 60 million low-income families and seniors, including most nursing home residents, as well as disabled people of any age. Under the GOP plan, Medicaid would be converted from an open-ended program in which the federal government pays about 60 percent of the cost of services, into a block grant that would give each state a fixed sum of money.

The budget would also do away with the right to Medicaid benefits under federal law and repeal a coverage expansion to low-income adults included in Obama’s health care law.

Republican governors say they can save taxpayers billions through a block grant that would let them clear away federal red tape and design health care systems tailored to local needs. But the study cast doubt on whether governors would have enough money coming in from Washington to adequately meet the needs of their states and avoid sharp cuts in services.

Under current laws, Medicaid is expected to cover 76 million people in 2021, the end of the 10-year estimating window used in federal budgeting. Of those, some 17 million would gain coverage under Obama’s expansion.

The study estimated that 36 million to 44 million people would lose coverage from the combined impact of the block grant and repealing Obama’s law. Researchers said they gave a range to account for different approaches that states might take to reduce their Medicaid rolls. Under the worst case scenario, Medicaid enrollment would plunge by nearly 60 percent from current projected levels.

The study found federal spending for Medicaid would decline by $1.4 trillion from 2012-2021, a reduction of about one-third from what is now budgeted. Southern and mountain states would face the steepest cuts. Florida, for example, would take a 44 percent hit, while Nevada would get hit 41 percent.

Hospitals, community health centers, and other health care providers that serve low-income people would be disproportionately affected. In 2021, hospitals would face Medicaid funding cuts of $84 billion, the study said.