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Jonah Goldberg

Why the Hurry?
The president should have given intelligence analysts more time.

For a week, people have been asking, “Why won’t the president release Osama bin Laden’s photo?” That’s the wrong question. We should be asking, “Why was Barack Obama in such a hurry to tell us bin Laden was dead?”

The White House says the information in bin Laden’s compound is the equivalent of a “small college library,” potentially containing incalculably valuable and unique data on al-Qaeda operations, personnel, and methods.

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“It’s going to be great even if only 10 percent of it is actionable,” a government official told Politico’s Mike Allen.

I’m no expert on such matters — though I’ve talked to several about this — but even a casual World War II buff can understand that the shelf life of actionable intelligence would be extended if we hadn’t told the whole world, and al-Qaeda in particular, that we had it.

It’s a bit like racing to the microphones to announce you’ve stolen the other team’s playbook before you’ve had a chance to use the information in the big game.

But that’s exactly what President Obama did. He raced to spill the beans. The man couldn’t even wait until morning. At just after 9:45 p.m., the White House communications director, Dan Pfeiffer, informed the media: “POTUS to address the nation tonight at 10:30 p.m. Eastern Time.”

The announcement came less than three hours after Obama had been informed that there was a “high probability” that bin Laden was dead and that the Navy SEAL helicopters had returned to Afghanistan.

In other words, it seems that the White House planned to crow as soon as possible. Why? Nobody I’ve talked to can think of a reason that doesn’t have to do with politics or hubris.

Yes, killing Osama bin Laden would have been a big secret that would have been hard to keep for long. Certainly, Pakistan would grow agitated if we simply said nothing about the incursion, though sweating the Janus-faced Pakistanis with silence for a couple of days might yield its own intelligence rewards. In other words, even waiting 24 hours might generate some interesting “chatter.” The Pakistanis working with al-Qaeda certainly would have been the first to spread the news that bin Laden was dead or captured.

But the real treasure trove is that “college library” of intelligence.

And while reports are pouring out from a gloating White House that’s leaking like the Titanic in its final hours, one can only assume our analysts have barely begun to exploit the data. Couldn’t they have at least tried to give the CIA a week, a day, even a few more hours to look at it all before letting Ayman al-Zawahiri and the rest of al-Qaeda know about it? Why give him the slightest head start to go even further underground?

Operation Neptune Spear was the culmination of years of patient intelligence-gathering. The CIA identified bin Laden’s compound nearly ten months ago, in August 2010, and monitored it by satellite and from a secret safe house in Abbottabad at a cost of tens of millions of dollars.

And even that was breakneck speed compared with the years our government spent hunting bin Laden. In 2002, the CIA heard about a possible courier codenamed Abu Ahmed al-Kuwaiti. In 2004, it learned that he might have worked closely with bin Laden. It wasn’t until 2007 that it got al-Kuwaiti’s real name. It took two more years to track him down to a specific region.

That, of course, barely skims the surface of American patience and sacrifice. We’ve spent billions of dollars and lost numerous American and allied lives trying to defeat al-Qaeda. Those efforts have ripped apart our politics, from the debates over waterboarding and what some claim is torture to extraordinary rendition, black sites, and Guantanamo Bay. Some of those techniques and decisions seem to have led us to bin Laden’s door.

Surely one more week of harmlessly searching hard drives while the public was kept in the dark wouldn’t have been too great an additional burden. The White House would have still gotten their moment to preen and to ride their bump in the polls as far as they could. All they had to do is hold their tongues for a little while longer.

Obama says he won’t release bin Laden’s death photo for fear that American triumphalism might hurt American interests. Would that he had the same concern when it came to White House triumphalism.

— Jonah Goldberg is editor-at-large of National Review Online and a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. You can write to him by e-mail at JonahsColumn@aol.com, or via Twitter @JonahNRO.

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AmericanBelle

05/12/11 12:40

pdevlin, George W. had officer military training which is far different than boot camp and far, far more training in policy and strategy than Obama ever had. So would George W. really spill the beans like Obama? Absolutely not! Not a word would have been said until AFTER ALL the intelligence collected in the raid was disseminated and in many cases, acted upon. The raid was only the first step in such a massive intelligence dump as UBL's hideout since 2005!!! Further, part of that "intelligence dump" included UBL, who would NOT have been killed had Bush still been at the helm!

With all the dithering Obama went through just to go in to the compound (more than 10 months!), it's highly suspect that spiking the ball before UBL was dead was intentionally done by this incompetent because the "kill" was far more important to him than the intelligence or national security!

Al Ausel

05/12/11 09:40

You guys just can't stand it that Barack showed strength and toughness of character that Bush only pretended to to have.

RDP

05/12/11 08:51

I think you're right on. Why so quick. Why give your enemy any idea that you have significant intelligence on him. The absolutely childish behavior of this administration is at least consistent.

maksutov66

05/12/11 08:22

If al Qaeda got into CIA Headquarters at Langley like Tom Cruise in Mission Impossible, I think the rest of the U.S. government might be concerned. Even if Osama bin Laden issued a statement saying they didn't find anything.

Just a guess.

Hmastercylinder

05/11/11 20:30

This reminds me of the first time I ever saw actionable intelligence exposed on TV in real time. It was one of those tiffs between Greece and Turkey over Crete. There was a Turkish fleet sailing and some idiot newsman had a camera set up in the straits, with a live feed telling the world (and, of course, Greece)that the secret mission was underway.
I wondered why he thought that, if the Turks had known what he was up to, they would refrain from blowing him and his stupid camera to Kingdom Come. I think the Germans wouldn't have hesitated when they sortied the Bismarck, nor the Japanese when Pearl Harbor was in the offing, to wax whoever happened along, even without satellite gear.
Why do all these people who live by the soundbite never stop to consider what they're doing, you know, in the real world?

 J. D.

05/11/11 19:22

I don't disagree with Obama announcing OBL was dead that Sunday night. The speech should have been -

We eliminated OBL tonight. A team of Seals, Special Ops (pick your favorite term) killed him in his hideout.

We will have further details in the coming days as the participants are debriefed.

Thank you very much - now back to Apprentice (sorry couldn't resist)

If they did discover a treasure trove of information, shame on them for talking about it.

If they didn't, good for whoever (and it wouldn't have been Cowboy Obama) decided to release the bogus info to make the cowards sweat.

There is a difference between a President who is a qualified Air Force pilot landing on a carrier and a President who pretends he knows how many Seals, 'Copters are needed for this operation. For that smugness, shame on him and his braggadocios ways.

  Hope E. Changey

05/11/11 19:02

Jonah is right. Here's the deal folks--with Osama's self-imposed cutoff from the 'net and even phones, using physical couriers to spread the word and send his orders, the fact that he had a lot of stuff on-hand does NOT mean that anyone outside of that compound knew HOW MUCH stuff. This is a classic example of Rumsfeld's famous "Known unknowns vs. unknown unknowns" etc. etc.

Let's say the word that the raid took place and Osama's dead gets out within 12 hours or so--certainly the same Pakistani's who were harboring and protecting him would know quickly and they're obviously connected to the Al Quaeda network in various ways.

Those of you who think that suddenly makes the intel gained obsolete just don't understand how these things work. Everyone who ever sent Osama something via courier would have to wonder "Was it still there? Had he destroyed it? Did they find it?" and everyone who ever got a message FROM him would have to think "Did he keep a copy? Is there a record?" and everyone who ever interacted with ANY of his couriers would have to wonder "Were they there to be found at that moment and were there things that can lead to ME among their effects?"

The point is that nobody--and I mean NOBODY--but the SEALs and the DEAD people would KNOW for certain. Nobody.

Keeping the enemy confused is a good thing, folks. There is NO political advantage that trumps it. None.

Here's a great comparison: Imagine FDR going before the newsreels and print reporters to announce, triumphantly, that the US had broken the Japanese navy codes and had "a treasure trove" that was "the size of a small college library" worth of messages currently being examined.

Get the point? Good. Jonah certainly did. (Smile)

Marko61

05/11/11 16:57

Isn't the whole thing just an absolute mess from start to finish? Could they really have with-held that OBL was killed, and had they wouldn't there be some other forum for the mistakes made by this administration had the information been disseminated out of say the U.K. I appreciate everything you’re saying, yet it seems the only thing that shouldn’t have been said was they confiscated actionable intelligence. I think it’s all smoke and mirrors and I certainly can’t discern what bump Obama was hoping to get as he first yells the wicked witch is dead but back pedals trying to remain categorized as the non-violent, left-wing liberal he is instead of the one who authorized the execution. I’m sure blood is a whole lot harder to clean off even after the dust settles. Side Note:I applaud Bush for not going to Ground Zero and being a part of the sideshow campaign for O’s second term. As each day passed however, the whole thing seems creepily like a campaign maneuver. Seriously, as if he was told this will build his numbers…now is the time to kill OBL. Oh, okay then have those SEAL guys go in there take care of this and we’ll control the media. I’m a little sketchy but if OBL was hiding out in that compound as long as he was and anyone who survived the attack or wasn’t there all together would quickly disseminate that the compound has been taken, and all information there was confiscated, move to plan C. I don’t think Obama could of thought past the fact he would get a bump in his approval rating.

 Mary Mac

05/11/11 16:03

I'm privileged to know Green Berets, Seals and Rangers who did and do deal in counter-terrorism for Spec Ops, and to a man they say withholding the information for a while is valuable, even with the tail section of the chopper left behind. Had the team succeeded in blowing up all of the chopper, it would have taken quite a while for ISI to figure the deal out.

That said, I wasn't the least surprised Mr. Obama announced it immediately, or that the White House proceeded to make a mess of it. That is to be expected when you have a thin-skinned, petulant child in charge.

John Duresky

05/11/11 15:20

Here is the other thing about talking about that library of intelligence. Remember, our image of Bin Laden was of a guy cut off from the internet with no phone or computer connection. Hence it's logical to think that even those within Al Qaeda assumed he had nothing there. But now they KNOW he had LOTS of stuff. If I'm them, I would immediately look for other sanctuaries, change plans, change patters of operation, etc. Telling about Bin Laden being dead is one thing, but it would have been far better to have just snuck out with all the intel and mined it without the bad guys knowing what we had. Good kill shot, dumb political move.

 CitizenC

05/11/11 15:11

Again with the flight suit? That was also a survival suit, equipped with lifesaving gear should the plane have to ditch in the sea.

Don't doubt for a second the Navy and the Secret Service made wearing that suit a prerequisite for boarding that plane.

But that isn't the first time a President has worn military gear as a safety measure. There is a photo of Reagan peering intently across the DMZ into North Korea. He is wearing a USGI flak vest.

And yes, he looked dam*ed presidential while doing it. I'm pretty sure there was no media/left wing outcry over it, which leads me to conclude that with GWB it was just another manifestation of derangement syndrome.

 Guy Incognito

05/11/11 14:20

While it is certain Al-Quida would soon know about OBL's death, the details would take a lot longer to get out. If this administration was more concerned with winning (the war, not the next election) they would have given out misleading information (intentionally) about what information they had, but more importantly what information was "lost", say due to a few thrown grenades that were needed to clear a room, but then accidentally blew up a bunch of computers, etc.

kvh14

05/11/11 13:40

1. Tactically, he should have waited as long as possible to make the announcement.
2. Items left behind immediately identifiable as US-made signficantly shortened the announcement delay that was possible.
3. The announcement should have simply stated US forces killed Osama bin Laden, no US forces were killed or injured, and discussed nothing further.
4. By stating he authorized the operation, Obama was making himself the target of retaliation. This is appropriate as he is the CIC and is accountable for the operation.
5. By making a big deal about the SEALs, going to Fort Campbell, etc., he put the target back on US SOF personnel, which is entirely inappropriate as CIC. All congratulatory actions could have and should have been done in private. That's what SOF personnel, the quiet professionals, expect.

 Ironfistvelvetglove

05/11/11 13:28

The expiration date of the OBL bounce was over a week ago. (Actually, for me, within moments afer learning of his death, and not waiting over an hour for the statement. Loved it that the news burst and did not wait for him to start the party). Old, stale news to everyone but this WH and Dear Leader's mirror as he beats that dead corpse and uses every corpuscle for his new tough-guy image.ZZZzzzz

My eternal thanks to the Navy SEALS, who have also moved on to their next mission.

My question is not for releasing the photos, it is for releasing current news such as the flooding of the Mississippi Delta, and how Tuscaloosa is recovering from tornadoes.How is Texas since the wildfires? I forget...red states don't matter to this WH. Also,gas is almost $4/gallon. You know, the news of the moment as the WH wags the dog.

MM Farrow

05/11/11 13:06

Why does everyone believe that we DID find disks and thumb drives? Maybe this is the smoke screen. (I don't think this administration is that smart, but I'm just saying...

highlama

05/11/11 12:57

Jonah is spot on except for one little detail. I suspect the killing of Osama was done and advertised to flush out Gadhaffi. Remember how he rolled over after Saddham Hussein was hanged? This would have be a glorious coup for Obama - but only by getting the word out would it have been possible.

One question remains - why has Gadhaffi not realized his mortality (again) and come begging for forgiveness?

 smokedaddy

05/11/11 12:37

To Vlad & others.
Of course Al Qaeda operatives would know soon enough, but that info could be in the form of rumor and delayed by hours or even days depending on where one is on the Al Qaeda food chain. More importantly, they might suspect we have hard drives & intel, etc. Bur suspecting & knowing are two different things. I somehow doubt even Zawahiri had perfect knowledge of Bin Laden's hard drive files. The question, of course, is why no one in medialand, including FOX or conservative websites, is even making an issue of this. Outrageous. Thank you Jonah.

pdevlin

05/11/11 12:17

I'm not an Obama fan, but come on. George W. would have done the same if Osama had been killed under his watch.

Sour grapes, methinks.

Solo44

05/11/11 12:11

The article isn't about Bush, or what comes next in Afghanistan, or the fact that the mission was successful in killing Bin Laden-as much as the lefties want to change the subject. Jonah's point is spot on, that when it comes to Intel, the less said the better. Nobody had to know the seals retrieved computer hard drives and other goodies, at least not immediately. The case could be made that nobody had to know Bin Laden was dead for a day or so...perhaps we could have found other high value targets still sleeping that morning if we found actionable intel on where they were currently located. Intelligence-wise, there was no value in warning Al-Quaida we had Bin Laden and valuable information.

mooner

05/11/11 11:47

Remember the old saying it's better to say nothing and let people think you're foolish than to open your mouth and remove all doubt. There is a long distance between thinking you know and knowing. So letting the Al Queda and the Pakistanis stew for a while wouldn't have hurt. It also would have given the Adminstration time to get the narrative lined up with the facts.

Patrick Winter

05/11/11 11:13

Actually, POTUS 43 earned his flight wings in the Texas ANG. He earned more of a right to wear flight skins than BHO has a right to play hoops with NBA stars. At least he actually served in the armed forces. BHO only uses the military as an election campaign prop--much like the Clinton Administration treated military staffers like step-n-fetch-its.

JohannS

05/11/11 11:02

This Kiss-and-tell urge is very American rather than specifically "Obamanesque."

Intimate details of recent secret military operations are often discussed in national TV. Cable TV frequently show military personnel discussing the latest technology in detail, even of that in development. Magazines like Popular Mechanics frequently show the latest US military advancements, with photos and draft drawings of new systems, technology, aircrafts or warships. Military personnel discuss details of special forces training in TV--the entire basic training of our special forces is on the Military Channel for our entertainment.

On the internet, we volunteer even more. A 15 minutes search can get you photos from all angles of the latest Navy ship, together with the name and address of its commanding officer.

When was the last time you saw a Chinese fighter pilot on TV showing you the details, capabilities and limitations of the latest chinese fighter plane? Also, do you really need to know the range and payload capacity of the not yet deployed F-35, or to see its internal components diagram? Lets keep telling and be amused, our enemies will keep watching.

Vlad N.

05/11/11 10:33

A few things:

First: Al'Queida would know with in 24 hours that OBL was taken out by us. Either from their Allies in the Pakistany government or from one of their own who probably lived in the town or area and would check on the compound. Also its not like people in the town would not talk about the midnight raid. The area where we found him was too populated to think otherwise.

Two: IF they know we have him they would know we have his hard drives and all that, because why would we kill him but not take them? SO they would begin scrambling to change plans any way.

If we had taken him somewhere far from civ, we could have tried bombing the place after the raid and pretended like we did not know what we had done via a drone strike (kind of Tom Clancyish). Which maybe they would buy. Then we can take some time to go through the info and act on it.

But, this is not the case. If we killed him where and how we did, we might as well tell everyone 24h later any way because all the bad guys already know by then. Keeping it hidden longer only fuels conspiracy theories and denialists. Also siting on the info and releasing it later would mean the President might be accused of trying to keep this as a political "Ace up the sleeve".

 rimfrel

05/11/11 10:25

Obama bragged so he could get the bounce. He doesn't care if any of the intel is actionable, in fact he would prefer to avoid it, because the Middle East gets upset when we take action. And also when we don't.

I wish self-defense, like charity, began at home. We have only 44% operational control of our southern border. We don't need a moat with alligators in it, and a fence wouldn't be perfect, but it's unconscionable that the POTUS has ceded control of US territory to narco-terrorists. If he thinks it's so safe, let him vacation there with the family, in one of the national parks with a sign warning US citizens that it's dangerous.

chris vu

05/11/11 10:23

Jonah, though I'm no fan of the Obama administration, I think your argument is fairly weak here. In this day and age of warp speed communication of facebook, twitter, etc, the magnitude of an operation to nail OBL does not lend itself to be kept hidden for long. Remember: some Pakistanis inadvertently and unknowingly might have tweeted about the on-going SEALs-led raid. And as some commentators have pointed out, there's the matter of the wreckage of the classified helo. If the President had not made the announcement as he did, the news surely would have dripped out, and the US would be forced to react to the news, instead of acting. Being active is almost always preferable to reactive.
Secondly the assumption that by keeping the raid secret the US intelligence might gain more advantage over Al Qeada is simply unproven. Given the fact that OBL had the capability to watch himself on satellite TV, one cannot assume that other AQ headmasters would not learn about his death before long if the President had not rushed to make the news.
One can criticize the President for being a hypocrite for admonishing people not "spiking the ball," and yet he went on a celebratory tour, and had his acolytes going on TV, saying how he personally planned the raid (increase the size the raid force, shoot their way out, how many helos to be used, etc) to the point of ridiculousness. And one can certainly be very critical of the administration's handling of the dumping the body to the sea in a hush-hush manner, with no transparency, complete opposite to the leaking like a sieve about the raid.
Personally I have no problem with the President's personal gloating and political exploit of the raid. He took a chance when given less than solid intel, and nailed the dude. While president Bush, longed to be known as wartime president, failed when given similar, less than solid intel in the Tora Bora episode, and spent the rest of his presidency desperately trying to make up for that flub with no success.

 annieoakley53

05/11/11 09:52

"The guy who got him" actually was a Navy SEAL, who shall remain nameless (we hope). Kudos to President Obama for ordering the kill. Apparently he agonized over it, but did order the kill. Credit where credit is due, there.

However, there was no reason to start blabbing about what was found in the compound. We could have kept silent and issued a very brief statement about Osama's death - instead, there has been a plethora of anonymous (and contradictory) statements about the events that occurred and the materials/intel seized. I think silence and a less sieve-like verbal response would have been preferable and might, indeed, have provided us with some valuable insight.

I am also concerned about how we will protect ourselves in the future if our leaders have no understanding of how such intel is gathered in the real world.

Mudman

05/11/11 09:42

"Imagine there's no hippies, it's easy if you try."

 Dan Davis

05/11/11 09:39

@ john lennon: sigh. Can you loony lefties just come up with a short hand for your favorite 'flight suit Mission Accomplished' tripe? Just type 'FS:MA' or something and then I won't have to be bothered to read the hack idiocy that you seem to think is somehow original and decisively argument ending. For being 'progressives' you sure spend a great deal of time living in the past...

Seahawk

05/11/11 09:39

And how ironic (and sad) that a man who adamantly opposed and swore to dismantle all the “unconstitutional/un-American” anti-terrorism apparatuses that Bush had built and put in place is now basking in the glory of a victory largely due to those very same apparatuses. Moreover, what does it say about the capability and professionalism of an administration that cannot present to the American people (and the world) a coherent, consistent and accurate account of one of the most important covert operations of our time?

steveeboy

05/11/11 09:34

oh gee, you people really are perplexed with how to deal with the fact that the President did in 2 years what Bush "I'm not that concerned with [Bin Laden]" couldn't do in 8--despite the torture, despite invading and occupying a country that had nothing to do with 9/11, etc. It's so fun watching you twist in the wind and grasp at straws. THERE WAS AN MH-60 helo left on site! do you think the deal wasn't gonna be apparent? Keep it up Goldberg, is this the best you can do after more than a week? Pathetic effort really...

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