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2.3. Climate change
2.3.1. Greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions in Estonia
In last century the content of greenhouse gases in atmosphere has increased in result of human activities, which increases also natural greenhouse effect, leads to warming of external surface of the Earth and its atmosphere and may damage natural ecological systems and mankind. In 1990 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was concluded, which was ratified by Estonia in 1994. Main goal of the convention is to stabilize the emission level of greenhouse gases by the year 2000 to the same level, where it was in 1990. In 1998 Estonia joined the protocol undersigned at Kyoto conference, according to which emissions of greenhouse gases must be reduced in 2008-2012 by ca 8%, compared to the year 1990. By now 22 countries have ratified the Kyoto protocol; Estonia is planning ratification in 2001/2002.
Main social-economic factors of climate change are use of energy, agriculture, waste management and industrial activities, whereby energetics is the main factor. Estonian power supply is basing in extent of 72% on local fuel (oil shale, peat, wood), whereby the percentage of oil shale is 52% (1998). Oil shale is used in power stations (ca 98% of the whole electric energy production is basing on oil shale), for the production of shale oil and in cement industry. Production capacity has changed according to the demand of power stations and oil shale processing industry. When in 1990 the production of oil shale amounted to 22.5 million tons, it was only 12.5 million tons in 1998.
Emissions of greenhouse gases have been calculated by the Institute of Ecology according to IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change) methodology (table 2.7 and figure 2.14).
Table 2.7. Changes of emissions of greenhouse gases in Estonia, Gg (1990-1998).
Emissions of GHG in CO2 equivalent
Figure 2.14. Distribution of emissions of greenhouse gases in 1998.
Emissions of GHG in CO2 equivalent
One main sources of CO2 is the combustion of fossil fuels.
Table 2.8 and figure 2.15 show the supply of primary energy (total
amount of produced and imported primary energy, minus export of primary
energy), oil shale consumption and CO2 emissions in 1990-1998.
The sector of energetics produces 91.8% of total emission of CO2,
transport - 6.4% and industrial processes only 1.8% (mainly cement
production) (figure 2.16).
Table 2.8. Supply of primary
energy, oil shale consumption and CO2 emissions.
Figure 2.15. Supply of primary
energy, oil shale consumption and CO2 emissions.
Figure 2.16. Distribution of
CO2 emissions by branches of economy.
Wood and other biological fuels are renewable sources of energy and
emissions of CO2, emitted into atmosphere with their burning,
are not included in greenhouse gases, as it does not affect circulation
of carbon in the nature. According to the Long-term National Development
Plan for Fuel and Energy Sector, increase of the percentage of the
use of renewable sources of energy and peat by 2/3 has been planned
by the year 2010, compared with the year 1996, when their percentage
in supply of primary energy was 9%; by the year 2010 it should increase
to 13% (table 2.9).
Table 2.9. Expected change of the need for primary energy, % (Long-term National Development Plan of Fuel and Energy Sector).
More important sources of methane pollution in Estonia are agriculture enteric (fermentation and manure management) and waste management (emission from landfills and wastewater treatment plants), correspondingly 30% and 35.5% in 1998. Emissions of methane from agriculture decreased by 50.3% compared to the level of 1990, which is caused by reduction of the number of cows two times. Methane is emitted also at oil shale mining and distribution of natural gas to the consumer (10.8% and 18.2%), which was first calculated in 1997. Percentage of combustion of fossil fuels in methane emission is 5.4% (figure 2.17).
Figure
2.17. Distribution of CH4 emissions by branches of economy.
Figure
2.18. Distribution of N2O emissions by branches of economy.
The
largest pollution source of nitrous oxide (N2O) is fuel
combustion (70%, 1997), including fuel consumption for transformation
into other types of energy, in transport and other sectors. Another
source of N2O pollution is agriculture (30%), especially
use of fertilizers (figure 2.18). In 1990-1997 the amount of N2O
emitted into air decreased by 56%, mainly due to the decrease of the
amount of fossil fuel used for combustion and use of fertilizers in
that period.
2.3.2. Implementation of the goal of UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and Kyoto Protocol
Responsibilities of 1997 Kyoto Protocol of UNFCCC have been already
fulfilled in Estonia. In the period 1990-1998 the emission of greenhouse
gases (CO2, CH4 and N2O) in CO2
equivalent decreased by 46.6%, which was caused by the reduction of
use of fossil fuels as well as the decrease and reformation of industrial
and agricultural production (figure 2.19). Figures 2.20 and 2.21 show
CO2 emissions and emissions per person in Baltic countries
and member states of the European Union in 1996. When the Estonian
amount of CO2 emitted into ambient air is among the lowest
in Europe, the index, calculated per person, is one of the highest
- 14.6.
Figure 2.19. Emissions of greenhouse gases in Estonia in 1990-1998 and requirements of the Kyoto Protocol.
Figure 2.20. Emissions of carbon dioxide in Baltic countries and member states of the European Union in 1996.
Figure 2.21. Emissions of carbon dioxide per person in Baltic countries and member states of the European Union in 1996.
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Estonia has currently no programme for the reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases, but one of the main goals of long-term national development programme of fuel and energy management and goal programme of energy saving is the reduction of environmental impacts:
- to raise the efficiency of energy production and transport, use more environment-friendly fuels and reduce special consumption of energy in all branches of economy and households;
- at the establishment of new power stations, to prefer the principle of distributed electricity production and combined heat and power production;
- to provide higher efficiency in oil shale based energy production with the concurrent and significant reduction of the harmful environmental impact via the renovation of combustion technology.
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