Stoke-on-Trent Central: New Boundaries Calculation

Due to changes in ward boundaries, some new wards are divided among several old constituencies (though never between two new constituencies). Such wards are shown divided into several parts, called [1], [2], and so on.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election from 2003, 2004 or 2006. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed. Where zero votes are shown, the ward is not needed because the entire old seat is unsplit.

Calculation method: There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% of its votes from each ward. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done on a ward-by-ward basis using these common percentages.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

The old seat(s) needed are:

• Stoke-on-Trent South
• Stoke-on-Trent Central
• Stoke-on-Trent North

Old seat: Stoke-on-Trent South

					Actual Results				Turnout-adjusted Results					Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
City Of Stoke-on-trent	Bentilee and Townsend [2]	0	Stoke-on-Trent South	Stoke-on-Trent Central	319	857	0	681	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
City Of Stoke-on-trent	Berryhill and Hanley East [2]	541	Stoke-on-Trent South	Stoke-on-Trent Central	356	954	0	778	49	133	0	108	290	48	187	8	44	290
City Of Stoke-on-trent	Blurton [1]	9,236	Stoke-on-Trent South	Stoke-on-Trent South	363	771	0	1,386	714	1,516	0	2,726	4,956	708	2,893	219	1,134	4,956
City Of Stoke-on-trent	Fenton [2]	9,052	Stoke-on-Trent South	Stoke-on-Trent South	309	721	284	1,156	608	1,418	558	2,273	4,857	603	2,566	740	946	4,857
City Of Stoke-on-trent	Longton North [2]	10,460	Stoke-on-Trent South	Stoke-on-Trent South	398	916	456	956	819	1,886	939	1,968	5,612	813	2,882	1,097	819	5,612
City Of Stoke-on-trent	Longton South	10,047	Stoke-on-Trent South	Stoke-on-Trent South	675	1,229	1,193	613	981	1,786	1,734	891	5,392	974	2,240	1,806	370	5,392
City Of Stoke-on-trent	Meir Park and Sandon	9,918	Stoke-on-Trent South	Stoke-on-Trent South	1,025	816	416	731	1,826	1,453	741	1,302	5,322	1,812	2,119	847	541	5,322
City Of Stoke-on-trent	Stoke and Trent Vale [2]	2,215	Stoke-on-Trent South	Stoke-on-Trent Central	395	748	757	398	204	387	392	206	1,189	202	491	408	85	1,189
City Of Stoke-on-trent	Trentham and Hanford	9,756	Stoke-on-Trent South	Stoke-on-Trent South	1,314	667	318	856	2,180	1,107	528	1,420	5,235	2,164	1,835	644	591	5,235
City Of Stoke-on-trent	Weston and Meir Park	9,257	Stoke-on-Trent South	Stoke-on-Trent South	949	961	0	815	1,730	1,752	0	1,486	4,968	1,717	2,510	120	618	4,968
	Total		Stoke-on-Trent South						9,111	11,438	4,892	12,380	37,821	9,046	17,727	5,894	5,153	37,821

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Stoke-on-Trent South at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2005 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	9,046	9,111	65	0	Transfer away 0.7% (= 65 / 9111) of ward's CON votes
LAB	17,727	11,438	0	6,289	Transfer in 86.3% (= 6289 / 7291) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	5,894	4,892	0	1,002	Transfer in 13.7% (= 1002 / 7291) of ward's transfer pool votes
OTH	5,153	12,380	7,227	0	Transfer away 58.4% (= 7227 / 12380) of ward's OTH votes
Total	37,820	37,821	7,291	7,291

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

Old seat: Stoke-on-Trent Central

					Actual Results				Turnout-adjusted Results					Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
City Of Stoke-on-trent	Abbey Green	8,756	Stoke-on-Trent Central	Stoke-on-Trent Central	594	1,076	0	965	959	1,737	0	1,558	4,254	981	2,350	272	648	4,254
City Of Stoke-on-trent	Bentilee and Townsend [1]	8,995	Stoke-on-Trent Central	Stoke-on-Trent Central	319	857	0	681	751	2,017	0	1,603	4,371	774	2,648	280	667	4,371
City Of Stoke-on-trent	Berryhill and Hanley East [1]	7,361	Stoke-on-Trent Central	Stoke-on-Trent Central	356	954	0	778	610	1,634	0	1,333	3,577	629	2,158	233	555	3,577
City Of Stoke-on-trent	Burslem South [1]	1,982	Stoke-on-Trent Central	Stoke-on-Trent North	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
City Of Stoke-on-trent	Fenton [1]	0	Stoke-on-Trent Central	Stoke-on-Trent South	309	721	284	1,156	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
City Of Stoke-on-trent	Hanley West and Shelton [1]	6,724	Stoke-on-Trent Central	Stoke-on-Trent Central	178	747	517	194	355	1,492	1,033	387	3,267	360	1,644	1,100	161	3,267
City Of Stoke-on-trent	Hartshill and Penkhull	8,628	Stoke-on-Trent Central	Stoke-on-Trent Central	655	904	0	1,193	998	1,377	0	1,817	4,192	1,024	2,092	318	756	4,192
City Of Stoke-on-trent	Longton North [1]	0	Stoke-on-Trent Central	Stoke-on-Trent South	398	916	456	956	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
City Of Stoke-on-trent	Northwood and Birches Head [1]	8,307	Stoke-on-Trent Central	Stoke-on-Trent Central	277	1,005	730	462	452	1,640	1,191	754	4,037	462	1,936	1,323	314	4,037
City Of Stoke-on-trent	Stoke and Trent Vale [1]	6,679	Stoke-on-Trent Central	Stoke-on-Trent Central	395	748	757	398	558	1,056	1,069	562	3,245	566	1,277	1,167	234	3,245
	Total		Stoke-on-Trent Central						4,683	10,953	3,293	8,014	26,943	4,799	14,109	4,696	3,338	26,943

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Stoke-on-Trent Central at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2005 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	4,823	4,683	0	140	Transfer in 2.5% (= 140 / 5640) of ward's transfer pool votes
LAB	14,760	10,953	0	3,807	Transfer in 67.5% (= 3807 / 5640) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	4,986	3,293	0	1,693	Transfer in 30.0% (= 1693 / 5640) of ward's transfer pool votes
OTH	3,338	8,014	4,676	0	Transfer away 58.3% (= 4676 / 8014) of ward's OTH votes
Total	27,907	26,943	5,640	5,640

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

Old seat: Stoke-on-Trent North

					Actual Results				Turnout-adjusted Results					Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
City Of Stoke-on-trent	Burslem North	9,193	Stoke-on-Trent North	Stoke-on-Trent North	381	1,102	303	601	773	2,237	615	1,220	4,845	802	2,735	757	549	4,845
City Of Stoke-on-trent	Burslem South [2]	6,643	Stoke-on-Trent North	Stoke-on-Trent North	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
City Of Stoke-on-trent	Chell and Packmoor	9,127	Stoke-on-Trent North	Stoke-on-Trent North	266	1,010	0	1,190	519	1,970	0	2,321	4,810	576	2,918	270	1,044	4,810
City Of Stoke-on-trent	East Valley	9,002	Stoke-on-Trent North	Stoke-on-Trent North	406	823	330	1,103	724	1,467	588	1,966	4,745	772	2,270	817	885	4,745
City Of Stoke-on-trent	Hanley West and Shelton [2]	0	Stoke-on-Trent North	Stoke-on-Trent Central	178	747	517	194	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
City Of Stoke-on-trent	Northwood and Birches Head [2]	833	Stoke-on-Trent North	Stoke-on-Trent Central	277	1,005	730	462	49	178	130	82	439	51	211	139	36	439
City Of Stoke-on-trent	Norton and Bradeley	8,732	Stoke-on-Trent North	Stoke-on-Trent North	603	1,346	0	953	956	2,134	0	1,511	4,601	993	2,751	176	680	4,601
City Of Stoke-on-trent	Tunstall	9,549	Stoke-on-Trent North	Stoke-on-Trent North	933	1,083	0	572	1,814	2,106	0	1,112	5,032	1,841	2,560	129	500	5,032
Staffordshire Moorlands	Bagnall and Stanley	1,281	Stoke-on-Trent North	Staffordshire Moorlands	464	0	77	80	504	0	84	87	675	506	35	94	39	675
Staffordshire Moorlands	Brown Edge and Endon	4,005	Stoke-on-Trent North	Staffordshire Moorlands	988	0	3,084	572	449	0	1,402	260	2,111	455	106	1,432	117	2,111
	Total		Stoke-on-Trent North						5,788	10,092	2,819	8,559	27,258	5,998	13,588	3,817	3,852	27,258

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Stoke-on-Trent North at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2005 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	6,155	5,788	0	367	Transfer in 4.5% (= 367 / 8208) of ward's transfer pool votes
LAB	16,191	10,092	0	6,099	Transfer in 74.3% (= 6099 / 8208) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	4,561	2,819	0	1,742	Transfer in 21.2% (= 1742 / 8208) of ward's transfer pool votes
OTH	3,853	8,559	4,706	0	Transfer away 55.0% (= 4706 / 8559) of ward's OTH votes
Total	30,760	27,258	8,208	8,208

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

New seat: Stoke-on-Trent Central

District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
City Of Stoke-on-trent	Abbey Green	8,756	Stoke-on-Trent Central	Stoke-on-Trent Central	981	2,350	272	648	4,254
City Of Stoke-on-trent	Bentilee and Townsend [1]	8,995	Stoke-on-Trent Central	Stoke-on-Trent Central	774	2,648	280	667	4,371
City Of Stoke-on-trent	Bentilee and Townsend [2]	0	Stoke-on-Trent South	Stoke-on-Trent Central	0	0	0	0	0
City Of Stoke-on-trent	Berryhill and Hanley East [1]	7,361	Stoke-on-Trent Central	Stoke-on-Trent Central	629	2,158	233	555	3,577
City Of Stoke-on-trent	Berryhill and Hanley East [2]	541	Stoke-on-Trent South	Stoke-on-Trent Central	48	187	8	44	290
City Of Stoke-on-trent	Hanley West and Shelton [1]	6,724	Stoke-on-Trent Central	Stoke-on-Trent Central	360	1,644	1,100	161	3,267
City Of Stoke-on-trent	Hanley West and Shelton [2]	0	Stoke-on-Trent North	Stoke-on-Trent Central	0	0	0	0	0
City Of Stoke-on-trent	Hartshill and Penkhull	8,628	Stoke-on-Trent Central	Stoke-on-Trent Central	1,024	2,092	318	756	4,192
City Of Stoke-on-trent	Northwood and Birches Head [1]	8,307	Stoke-on-Trent Central	Stoke-on-Trent Central	462	1,936	1,323	314	4,037
City Of Stoke-on-trent	Northwood and Birches Head [2]	833	Stoke-on-Trent North	Stoke-on-Trent Central	51	211	139	36	439
City Of Stoke-on-trent	Stoke and Trent Vale [1]	6,679	Stoke-on-Trent Central	Stoke-on-Trent Central	566	1,277	1,167	234	3,245
City Of Stoke-on-trent	Stoke and Trent Vale [2]	2,215	Stoke-on-Trent South	Stoke-on-Trent Central	202	491	408	85	1,189
	Total			Stoke-on-Trent Central	5,101	15,000	5,253	3,505	28,861

And these are the implied results for 2005 for the new seat of Stoke-on-Trent Central.