The balance of powers hangs in the balance

LAST September Ecuador’s police staged an ugly mutiny to protest against a cut in their benefits. During the uprising Rafael Correa, the president, was trapped for hours in a police hospital. Although there is no proven evidence that anyone involved sought to oust him, he has called the event an attempted coup. In an effort to shore up his power, he then scheduled a referendum to reform the constitution he inspired in 2008, following in the footsteps of Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez. To rally support, he distributed sheep to indigenous farmers and raised salaries for the army and bureaucracy.

On May 7th Ecuadoreans voted on a 4,000-word package of ten amendments, phrased in impenetrable legalese, that would give Mr Correa broad new powers over the courts and media. That night the government’s preferred pollster, Santiago Pérez, released an exit poll showing that all ten questions had been approved. Mr Correa announced that the proposals had passed by an average margin of 7%, and celebrated with a song-and-dance routine.

The first official results showed a much closer vote. While the government led on most proposals, it trailed on two key amendments, which would reform the top judicial oversight body and create a regulatory council to ensure “responsible” media coverage. Counting then proceeded painfully slowly, with the National Electoral Council suspending the tally in many districts, citing administrative problems like missing ballots or signatures—leading the opposition to fear fraud. On May 11th, the yes side edged ahead on the two questions it had been losing. As The Economist went to press, the government still led those contests by a razor-thin margin, with 66% of the vote counted. The council has until May 17th to publish its results.

The outcome will further polarise Ecuador’s politics, by emboldening both the president and the opposition. Mr Correa can point to the fact that he is far more popular than any of his recent predecessors, although his approval rating has declined this year. The amendments outlawing “unjustified” wealth, making it easier for prosecutors to hold criminal suspects without trial and requiring owners of banks and media to divest their holdings in other industries appear likely to pass—giving the president new power to put financial and legal pressure on his rivals.

The opposition, for its part, will either cry fraud if the late surge in the government’s favour on the courts and media questions holds up, or tout their rejection if it does not. Either way, they are likely to step up their efforts to investigate corruption in Mr Correa’s government. And in a closely divided legislature, they will also try to take over key committees to prevent Mr Correa from abusing the amendments.

The president is still far from absolute power. He does not control Congress, and is strapped for cash. But he has plenty of time to prepare for the 2013 election.