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United States
Detailed economic analysis, economic indicators, and forecasts for the United States.


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Jul 8U.S. Employment Ends Q2 With a Whimper
Broad-based weakness is reason for concern, but not panic.
Jul 8

Layoffs to Follow the Last Space Shuttle Launch


The employment impact will extend beyond space centers amid falling aerospace budgets.
Jul 8An Unhappy New Year for Public Employees
Things can and will get worse for state and local government employment.
Jul 8U.S. Economic Preview: July 11-15
Diminished expectations for a second-half rebound.
Jul 8

June Employment: Even Worse Than It Looks


Disappointing data send a downbeat signal for the U.S. economy in the second half of 2011.
Jul 7

What Do ISM Surveys Tell Us About Q2 GDP?


The safe bet is on a weak gain, but trade is a wild card.
Jul 7

Debt Ceiling Could Be Eroding Consumers' Confidence


The recent decline in sentiment is puzzling, as most fundamentals are improving.
Jul 7

Despite Mixed Signals, U.S. Small Businesses Are Hiring


The forecast for June nonfarm employment has been revised higher to 125,000.
Jul 7

ADP Reports Improvement in Private Hiring for June


A larger increase in private payrolls suggests the U.S. job market was better than expected.
Jul 7Less Government Support Implies Wider Credit Spreads
Jul 6

Markets Calm as Debt-Ceiling Clock Ticks


Financial conditions will tighten quickly if there is no resolution in the next couple of weeks.
Jul 6

ISM Details Point to Another Weak Month for Hiring


The orders pipeline is drying up quickly.
Jul 5

U.S. Vehicle Sales Keep Recovery in Neutral


An unexpected drop in June makes it harder to believe that GDP growth topped 2% last quarter.
Jul 3U.S. Chartbook: Stronger Growth Ahead
Despite last week's data showing a stall in the recovery, there is reason for optimism.
Jul 1

June ISM Warns That Nonauto Production Will Slow


Weak new orders and rising inventories are a recipe for slower factory output.
Jul 1GOP Fixation on Taxes Risks Catastrophe
Serious deficit reduction requires spending cuts and tax increases.
Jul 1U.S. Economic Preview: July 5-8
The June labor report should signal whether business hiring picks up.
Jun 30

U.S. Regional Manufacturing Surveys Finish Strong in June


The better tone has prompted an upgrade to the national ISM index forecast.
Jun 30

Risk Premiums Rise in U.S. Credit Markets


Spreads remain below 2009 levels, suggesting markets remain confident in the recovery.
Jun 30If the Default Rate Is So Low, Why Are Credit Spreads So Wide?
Jun 29

Fed Takes Prudent Steps Against Global Financial Shock


Currency agreements with other central banks won't likely affect an exit strategy.
Jun 29

Services Gauge Raises a Caution Flag on Growth


Fundamentals still point to second-half improvement.
Jun 28

U.S. House Prices Show Signs of Firming


Recent gains may be unwound this fall, but the market is nearing its bottom.
Jun 28

Fed Officials Begin to Talk Up the Economy


Preconditions for stronger growth are in place.
Jun 28

Consumers Pessimistic on Labor Market


A sizable increase is needed to boost the unemployment rate in June.
Jun 27

U.S. Household Debt Burdens Are Not So Heavy


Debt levels may seem high, but payments are manageable.
Jun 27

June Should Make Up for May's Low Spending


A rebound in auto prices, lower gasoline prices, and lower headline consumer prices will help.
Jun 24U.S. Chartbook: Recovery Poised to Regain Momentum
Late 2011 will bring renewed growth.
Jun 24U.S. Economic Preview: June 27-July 1
Data coming out during the week should help gauge the risks during the slowdown.
Jun 24

QE2's Departure Will Not Sink the Recovery


Long-term interest rates will be driven more by variations in economic activity.
Jun 24

U.S. Debt Limit, Budget Talks Reach Critical Point


GOP opposition to tax increases the sticking point.
Jun 23

What Are Stock and Bond Markets Predicting for U.S. Growth?


Equities appear sanguine, but bond investors may be too pessimistic.
Jun 23

Surprise Oil Release Will Work Like a Tax Cut


Energy prices were an economic headwind but could become a tailwind.
Jun 23

Labor Market Shows Few Signs of Improvement


The rise in initial claims will keep expectations for June nonfarm employment in check.
Jun 23Swoon by Issuance Hints of Lower Yields Ahead
Jun 22

Construction's Troubles May Extend Into 2012


The AIA billing's index has declined for three consecutive months.
Jun 22

Bernanke Stays the Course, Declares QE a Success


Revisions to the forecast mean the Fed may shelve its exit strategy for now.
Jun 22

Manufacturing Gives Midwest Incomes a Boost


Signs point to a factory sector slowdown, which would place the rebound in jeopardy.
Jun 22FOMC Holds Course Despite 'Temporary' Job, Inflation Setbacks
Jun 22

Mortgage Applications Understate U.S. Homebuying


All-cash buyers have a bigger role in the housing market.
Jun 21

Geithner Optimistic on Debt Ceiling


Failure to pass an increase would be disastrous.
Jun 21

June Home Turnover Should Look Better


It appears that pending-home sales rose significantly in May.
Jun 21

What Ails Small Business Won't Heal Quickly


The biggest problem is poor sales; labor market improvement could be delayed.
Jun 21Reworking Risk Retention
Some proposed reforms could damage the financial system unless Washington corrects their flaws.
Jun 21U.S. Industry Outlook: Professions Lead Recovery
Corporate profits have recovered after the Great Recession, but the improvement is slowing.
Jun 20Credit Card Revival Supports U.S. Consumer Spending
Both the supply of and demand for consumer credit are growing.
Jun 20

An Unusual Summer for Autos Will Bedevil U.S. Job Statistics


As carmakers push to make up lost production, claims data will be unseasonably skewed.
Jun 20U.S. Chartbook: Assessing the Slowdown
Signs of a broader slowdown raise doubt about the latter half of 2011.
Jun 17

May's Job Market Lull Spread Across the U.S.


Regional pockets of strength are diminishing.
Jun 17

FOMC Preview: QE2 Fades to Black


Fed will be content to sit on the sidelines.
Jun 17U.S. Economic Preview: June 20-24
Fed moves to the sidelines as the economy remains stuck in a rut.
Jun 17

Declining Debt Payments Helping Household Budgets


Financial obligations are lower, and debt payments have fallen for 11 consecutive quarters.
Jun 17Foreclosure Delays Prolong U.S. Housing Correction
Prices will founder until early next year and then start rising in earnest at the end of 2012.
Jun 16

No Lift From U.S. Housing Coming Soon


Building starts are treading water, and the outlook is less upbeat.
Jun 16

More Than Auto Disruptions Ail U.S. Manufacturing


Regional surveys raise the odds the ISM index could fall below 50 in June.
Jun 16

Jobless Claims Improve a Bit, but Not Enough


The four-week moving average didn't budge, signaling the labor market is still struggling.
Jun 16Borrowing Restraint Curbs Growth While also Containing Treasury Yields
Jun 15

Manufacturing Growth Set to Shift


Auto production is poised to pop, but other factory lines will expand more slowly.
Jun 15

Q2 GDP Forecast Unchanged


Trade is a major wild card this quarter.
Jun 15

Falling Confidence Puts Second-Half Rebound in Question


Souring sentiment could add pressure for a resolution to the federal debt-ceiling issue.
Jun 15

Vehicle Prices Powered May Core CPI


Apparel also contributed to a larger than anticipated gain.
Jun 14

Obama, in Puerto Rico, Glimpses a Protracted Recession


Five years after losing special federal incentives, the island commonwealth is still struggling.
Jun 14

Greek Aid Package Has Support of U.S. Creditors


A "soft restructuring" could keep banks and insurers from facing big near-term payouts.
Jun 14U.S. Macro Outlook: Testing Time for Confidence
Pump prices and policy dramas shake consumers and firms, producing a surprise slowdown.
Jun 14

U.S. Retail Sales Likely Will Rebound


Though May sales showed consumers are cutting back, the numbers could have been much worse.
Jun 13

Slowdown Has Not Overtaken Business Sentiment


Job growth may be stronger than the official data suggest.
Jun 13U.S. Regional Outlook: The Midwest at Risk
The Midwest economy has much to lose if manufacturing idles beyond this summer.
Jun 13U.S. Chartbook: A Complacent Recovery
Stagnation in the labor market casts a shadow over the economy.
Jun 13Greek Sovereign Debt Default Probability Rises to All-Time High