Offside: Government forgets to tell three ministers about their resignation

White House suffers from sclerosis?

“We formed a decent, strong cabinet,” President Bakiev announced on Friday, February 9^th at his first meeting with Prime Minister Azim Isabekov. President announced the task for the future to the new cabinet and at the same time assessed the job of the previous cabinet. The first president-cabinet meeting brought the vital answers to many questions that were raised after another mess in power.

How ministers were banished

First of all it is now officially confirmed that there won’t be big personnel changes. Five ministers were discharged, including Felix Kulov (prime minister), Omurbek Suvanaliev (minister of internal affairs), Alikbek Jekshenkulov (foreign minister), Eugene Semenenko (minister of labor and social security), and Medetbek Kerimkulov (minister of industry, trade and tourism).

Experts say that the first three were discharged because of their ideological incompatibility with the president’s line. Felix Kulov was replaced by a “technical prime minister” Azim Isabekov. Omurbek Suvanaliev was discharged for his loyalty to ex-PM Kulov and for his excessive activeness in fighting against crime. Alikbek Jekshenkulov became a token coin in the president’s relations with external players. Eugene Semenenko was apparently discharged for his mentality’s incompatibility. It was probably hard for him to understand this mysterious “kyrgyzchylyk” – the unwritten Kyrgyz rules of conduct. The reason of Medetbek Kerimkulov’s resignation is unclear. Perhaps it has to do with his brother Myktybek Abdyldaev’s activity who chairs presidential administration.

Felix Kulov said goodbye to the government even before the official decree of his resignation came out. Omurbek Suvanaliev knew about coming resignation. De jure parliament deputies lobbied his resignation as Suvanaliev, being the minister of the interior, touched the deputies’ interests. However it was obvious that not only the parliament was interested in major-general’s resignation. Shortly before his resignation, according to sources, the minister met with president’s representatives, who hinted at his upcoming demotion. No one said that he will definitely be discharged. As a result the minister learned about his resignation from… mass media.

The White House forgot to inform about resignation not only Omurbek Suvanaliev. Minister of labor and social security Eugene Semenenko also learned about his resignation from mass media. While he was waiting for official announcement his deputy was receiving promotion congratulations. This really looked incorrect. Such reshuffles are usually done in a different way.

News Agency “24.kg” learned that Alikbek Jekshenkulov’s colleagues told him about his resignation. When he came to work he was surprised to learn that the ministry in half an hour will welcome a new boss. He spent that half hour to collect his belongings and free the place to Erdan Karabaev - the new foreign minister.

Medetbek Kerimkulov lost his portfolio with the ministry’s abolition. Part of the ministry is given to Sabyrbek Moldokulov who now chairs the ministry of economic development and trade. Another part went under Igor Chudinov’s supervision. In the new cabinet former “Kyrgyz gas” president chairs the ministry of industry, energy and fuel resources.

The Eastern front has no changes

What did we get with such rotations? First of all this personnel selection makes no sense. So-called “new” government almost fully consists of the same old officials. In other words, the White House only rotated the same figures, and the fresh faces in the cabinet are not likely to play a significant role in the cabinet’s activity.

Isabekov’s cabinet is basically formed with those who were given parliament’s negative evaluation in the past. In the past months the parliament simply ignored the government’s initiatives. Deputies rejected more than 40 drafts that were forwarded to the parliament. President Bakiev of course didn’t forget to mention it.  

Bakiev blamed the old cabinet for its inability to peacefully live with the parliament. Whether or not the “new” cabinet manages to get parliament’s favor is yet unclear. Azim Isabekov tried to be very loyal to the deputies demonstrating his obedience during meetings in the parliament. But this does not mean that Isabekov’s ministers will get full trust from parliament deputies because each of the ministers received deputies’ “black mark.”

On the other hand, this cabinet could live the longest. Bakiev managed to change the balance of power in the parliament so that he can now expect cooperation. It is not in his interests to dismiss the parliament while the parliament could show loyalty and play the role of hangman for certain ministers. Perhaps, just to keep this order president did not pull out some deputies who are cooperating with him.

Bakiev managed to create such a system, which could keep the situation going in the favorable trend. Until the majority of the parliament remains pro-president every minister will possess a portfolio until Bakiev says enough. President’s surroundings learned how to replace unfavorable people in power with the deputies’ hands. This practice was successful.

To get the final strategic victory president needs to solve two problems. First of all he needs to completely neutralize the opposition, which still has some resources to run rallies. Half of the work is done. As a result of such manipulations Bakiev managed to replace politicians that are sympathetic to the opposition. Some observers believe that in the nearest future president’s team will have a major task - replace concrete opposition figures from political arena.  

The second problem is strengthening his team. Right now it is heterogeneous and is represented by both former Akaev’s people and his opponents. (Analytics say that the groups surrounding the president are still fighting with each other for influence on president when making important decisions). If the president solves these problems then he could easily start preparing for 2010 presidential elections campaign. It is pretty much obvious that Bakiev would want to go for another term.

Interns and the Big kids

Economic growth is the major task set before Isabekov and his cabinet. Felix Kulov’s cabinet, as President Bakiev said, started to work on reaching economic growth. Current ministers have heard this from the president many times while he was in the tandem with Kulov. But if we look at whom in the “new” cabinet the economic growth task was given, then we could figure out who will be the first fiddle in the executive power – First Deputy Prime Minister Daniar Usenov.

In Kulov’s cabinet he oversaw the economical block. He has already taken all the issues of investment attraction. In fact, it the first deputy prime minister who should be responsible for failed economic policy. When talking about 2006 results, President Bakiev said that the government failed to provide investments and increase the GDP. But since we see that Usenov remained in the “new” government and moreover he strengthened his position, obviously against any logic the president is satisfied with the job Usenov did.

Azim Isabekov, on his part, is only trying to play the role of prime minister. He does not have political freedom and does not intend to get it. This characteristic was probably deciding when Bakiev chose him for prime minister. Isabekov will now have to work in apparent misbalance of power and responsibility. He is lacking power and has plenty responsibilities.

The conclusion is obvious: the government “change” in Kyrgyzstan was meant to replace unfavorable figures. As a result of “constitutional reforms” Bakiev managed to get not only an obedient parliament but also an obedient cabinet. Some observers believe that a super-presidential regime has already been set. Two years ago such attempts led to public explosion. What will these political games result in?