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Dan Ephron describes the personality and lifestyle of Moroccan King Mohammed VI. King Mohammed is “unquestionably different” from other Arab leaders and from his father, the previous King of Morocco; this king is “genuinely popular” and “less repressive.” And yet Ephron notes how the constitutional reforms introduced by the King have fallen short of expectations, and appear to preserve the power of the monarchy. Thus Morocco’s strategy of buying time by promising change, but ultimately failing to endorse democratic reforms, appears to be working.
Writing in the Financial Times, Robert Kaplan assesses the realist nature of President Barack Obama‘s foreign policy towards the Arab uprisings. In Libya, Syria, and elsewhere, Obama is “supporting democracy where he can, and stability where he must.” Kaplan rejects the assertion that the Arab revolts have discredited U.S. policy based on realism, and predicts that even without authoritarian regimes, the futures for Libya, Yemen, Syria, and Egypt will be “decidedly troubled.” The author concludes, ”because instability is a given, realism – which counsels that interests are paramount in facing a multiplicity of situations – will once again prove to be the only credible belief system for those who, like Mr Obama, seek to wield power.”
According to al-Jazeera, Inner City Press, a U.N. watchdog group, has obtained a leaked U.N. plan for post-Gadhafi written by Ian Martin. The plan outlines a proposed U.N. mission to include humanitarian, civil society, and elections support as well as potential international policing and military observers. The plan calls for the deployment of 61 staff for three months to be based in Tripoli and Benghazi. The plan also outlines the limitations of U.N. assistance, noting that if the transitional government were not able to assert control over post-Gadhafi Tripoli, any requisite international assistance would be beyond the U.N. capacity. The plan also noted, “the [U.N.] Security Council’s ‘protection of civilians’ mandate implemented by NATO forces does not end with the fall of the Gaddafi government, and there, NATO would continue to have some responsibilities.”
Writing in the New York Times, Vali Nasr argues that sectarianism, a trademark of the Middle East, could exacerbate the conflict in Syria and spread throughout the region. The tensions between Sunnis and Shiites could impede democratic transitions and force the U.S. to reexamine its response to the Arab uprisings. Nasr notes, ”There are no recent examples of extended power-sharing or peaceful transitions to democracy in the Arab world.” Instead, with the fall of authoritarian regimes, “budding democracies are more than likely to be greeted by violence and paralysis.”
The author recommends that the U.S. work closely with regional allies to diffuse sectarian tensions, specifically in Bahrain and Lebanon, since “the specter of protracted bloody clashes, assassinations and bombings, sectarian cleansing and refugee crises from Beirut to Manama, causing instability and feeding regional rivalry, could put an end to the hopeful Arab Spring.”
Bahraini King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa announced a pardon for some protesters during a speech to the nation on Sunday. The King said, ”there are those who are charged with abusing us and senior officials in Bahrain, we today announce that we forgive them.” He continued saying, “although I do not like to interfere in the course of justice, I would like to confirm that all the cases of civilians will have their verdicts issued by a civil court.”
The King also ordered schools, universitites, and employers to solve the problem of those who were dismissed or prevented from studying. He called for those who have suffered during the past few months to file compensation claims, noting that the law allows for compensation. And he called for unity across Bahrain, saying, “the recent period was painful to all of us. Although we live in one country, some have forgotten the inevitability of co-existence. Therefore, we should not abandon our belief in having the same and common future, and should not lose trust in each other as brothers, colleagues and citizens.”
Turkish President Abdullah Gul said on Sunday that he had “lost confidence” in the Syrian government, and noted that authoritarian regimes could be replaced by force if necessary. Marking the end of the Arab League meeting on Syria, foreign ministers issued a statement expressing concern and calling for an end to the bloodshed. The Syrian government rejected the statement as “a clear violation … of the principles of the Arab League charter and of the foundations of joint Arab action.” Yet Lebanese Foreign Minister Adnan Mansour claimed that the foreign ministers present at the Arab League meeting agreed not to issue a statement, and the statement by the secretariat “was not discussed during the meeting and was not agreed upon.” And Grand Sheikh of Al-Azhar Ahmed al-Tayyeb condemned the security forces’ attack on al-Rifai mosque in Damascus on Saturday.
Meanwhile, Assad issued a new media law on Sunday, which officially ends government control over newspapers, media, and local and foreign publications. Opposition groups argue that while the reform was once a crucial demand, it is now too little too late. At a meeting in Turkey, opposition leaders announced the formation of a Transitional National Council, designed to provide leadership for the opposition. And after dozens of soldiers defected, Syrian forces, tanks, and armored vehicles surrounded Ruston, a town near Homs. Finally, reports are emerging that some Syrian businessmen have approached western embassies to express their hatred of the Assad regime, but also their concern over the negative impacts of sanctions.
POMED’s Weekly Wire for August 29 is now available. This week’s edition includes coverage of Libyan rebels’ assault on Tripoli, as well as ongoing violence in Syria as opposition leaders began to form a national council. The Yemeni Prime Minister returned to Sana’a, while President Ali Abdullah Saleh remains defiant that he will soon return. And Bahraini authorities continued their repression of pro-democracy activists as Nabeel Rajab was summoned to a police station for interrogation.
The full Weekly Wire can be viewed here.
James Traub described the work of the Tripoli Task Force, a 70-member task force formed by the Transitional National Council (TNC) to plan for reconstruction in the capital, that oversaw a network of Libyans responsible for policing, water supply, fuel, schools, etc. Sohail Nakhoody, the former chief of staff to Aref Ali Nayed, leader of the task force and current ambassador to the United Arab Emirates, said, “we had in front of us the experience of Afghanistan, Iraq, Kosovo, Somalia.” Iraq served as a kind of anti-template, especially on questions like how to treat regime elements — i.e., no “de-Baathification.”
Traub noted the task force is staffed with Libyans and thus possesses a “Libyan sense of reality.” Nakhoody said the task force’s goal is to “secure the conditions for normal life and for democratic processes to happen.” And recently, the task force has expanded to produce a post-conflict plan for the entire country. Traub also noted the lessons of U.S. reconstruction efforts in Iraq, arguing that the politics of reconstruction are critical. He noted several officials who were “impressed” by the inclusive nature of the TNC and their work in developing the idea of “legitimate government” in Libya, a country where this notion is generally foreign.
Egypt’s cabinet approved the creation of a judicial committee that had been proposed by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces to start negotiations with Switzerland in an effort to reach a deal to restore Egypt’s frozen assets.
Additionally, police arrested one of Egypt’s most wanted Islamist militants, Mohamed Shawqi el-Islambuli, as he arrived back into Egypt on Sunday after being ordered to leave Iran. He had killed former President Anwar al-Sadat in 1981 and was sentenced to death in absentia in 1992 for plotting to overthrow the state.
On Saturday, revolutionary youths claiming to be members of revolutionary coalitions, demonstrated at a rally organized by Ali al-Meselhy, former minister of social solidarity and the former ruling party’s policies secretariat, in the city of Abu Kebir in Sharqiya Governorate. Protesters called for his arrest for allegedly rigging the 2005 and 2010 parliamentary elections, which was proven in court, though Meselhy denied the allegations.
Security forces shot two people dead and wounded nine others in the province of Idlib, according to activists from the Syrian Observatory of Human Rights. Activists also reported that two Syrians died of critical wounds in Homs and Deraa provinces, and a third person was found dead in Harasta near Damascus as a result of sniper shooting. Authorities also stormed villages, raided houses and made arrests. Security forces also fought gun battles overnight near a northeast Damascus suburb with army defectors who had refused to shoot at a pro-democracy protest.
Additionally, the government of Iran warned NATO against any attempts to intervene in Syria, emphasizing that “rather than the defeating a regime it would be bogged down in ‘quagmire’ similar to Iraq or Afghanistan.”
Three prominent opposition figures were prevented from leaving Syria by border officials on Sunday as they tried crossing into Lebanon, despite the fact that previous opposition figures have traveled freely to Lebanon.
Arab League Security-General Nabil El-Arabi has planned to travel to Damascus soon. el-Arabi’s planned trip to Damascus comes after Saturday’s foreign-minister level Arab League meeting that discussed events in Syria. An Arab League source said “[El-Arabi] is planning to leave today, but it might take another day or two of consultations before the trip actually takes place.”