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This paper investigates the role of Fourth of July celebrations in shaping political views and behavior in the United States. We study the impact of Fourth of July during childhood on partisanship and participation later in life. Our method uses daily precipitation data from 1920-1990 to proxy for exogenous variation in participation on Fourth of July as a child. The estimates imply that days without rain on Fourth of July in childhood increase the likelihood of identifying with the Republicans as an adult, voting for the Republican but not the Democratic candidate, and voter turnout. Our findings are significant: one Fourth of July without rain before age 18 increases the likelihood of identifying as a Republican at age 40 by 2 percent, the share of people voting for the Republican candidate at age 40 by 4 percent, and the share of people turning out to vote at age 40 by 0.9 percent. The evidence is consistent with childhood experience having foundational effects less susceptible to adult political influence. It also suggests that there is political congruence between patriotism promoted on Fourth of July and Republican beliefs, as well as Fourth of July transmitting a non-partisan civic duty to vote.
From this paper (pdf) by Andreas Madestam and David Yanagizawa-Drott. (Hat tip to Patrick Flavin.) The logic is that on sunny July 4th days, people are more likely to participate in July 4th celebrations. Here are some other findings from the paper:
- There is a contemporaneous relationship between rain-free July 4th days and party identification in adulthood, not just in childhood.
- Sunny days on July 2, 3, 5, and 6 don’t manifest this same relationship.
- The relationship with party identification appear most notable for children ages 7-10 and 11-14.
- The relationship with party identification are apparent in predominantly Republican counties, but not Democratic counties. The relationship with turnout are apparent in both types of counties.
- The relationship with party identification are present for birth cohorts from each decade between 1920-70, but not cohorts from later decades. Madestam and Yanagizawa-Drott suggest that participation in July 4th celebrations may have declined for later cohorts as part of a decline in social capital.
In sum, if you were born before 1970, and experienced sunny July 4th days between the ages of 7-14, and lived in a predominantly Republican county, you may be more Republican as a consequence.
When I first read the abstract, I did not believe the findings at all. I doubted whether July 4th celebrations were all that influential. And the effects seem to occur too early in the life cycle: would an 8-year-old would be affected politically? Doesn’t the average 8-year-old care more about fireworks than patriotism?
But the paper does a lot of spadework and, ultimately, I was left thinking “Huh, maybe this is true.” I’m still not certain, but it was worth a blog post.
Comments?
[Cross-posted at The Monkey Cage]
Anonymous on July 01, 2011 10:40 PM:
I didn't read the paper so they may have addressed this but if you live in a predominantly Republican county you are more likely to have a Republican family and are therefore more likely to become a Republican later in life. I'm willing to believe that on sunny July 4th days, future Republicans are more likely to participate in July 4th celebrations but that's about as far as I can go with this.
Patricia Cole on July 02, 2011 6:29 AM:
Having a Republican family made ME become a Democrat. And I loved the whole parade/fireworks 4th of July thing as a child. Never voted Republican in my life.
Genevieve on July 02, 2011 9:48 AM:
Just looked at the paper -- much love and effort went into it, but it seems to have major problems, starting with all the rhapsodizing hypotheses on how celebrating together would naturally tend to build warm fuzzy patriotic feelings so of course it would lead to R votes. Instead of unpacking the layers of observer bias, lets start with what they say they are observing:
They look at rainfall for the day and treat any day that has rainfall as "rainy". The variable is treated in ones and zeroes -- a day is either "rain free" or has rain
For about 8 Fourth of Julys, I've been hosting the decorating party for our neighborhood float in the parade. Two of those years it rained -- once from midnight to 6 a.m., once a 10 minute downpour as the parade started, just long enough to make all the decorations bleed red and blue over the truck. Both those years would count as rainy in this paper, even though the rain did not (at least as far as I could tell) dampen turnout for the parade, or the barbecue, games and rides in the park after, or the fireworks at night. By ten a.m., the rain was not a factor; you can't use "rain that day" as a proxy for not participating in the 4th.
Since "rain" any time in the day isn't a good proxy for non-attendance, but they do find that people who experience rain on the 4th are more likely to self-identify as Republican decades later, I have a different hypothesis - an alternative to their warm, fuzzy national clebration = patriotism = building community = Republicans.
Isn't it possible that people who have the experience of observing "rain on their [National] parade" become embittered and self-righteous?
If I wrote a paper hypothesizing that bitter, self-righteous feelings on the 4th lead to R votes 30 years later, I could be accused of bias, dontcha think? Yet that is precisely the kind of lazy stereotyping (in the opposite direction) that underpins this paper.
Happy 4th of July.
Rip on July 02, 2011 12:31 PM:
Not only is the definition of a "rain day" suspect, but they don't seem to take into account that "4th of July" parades, barbecues and fireworks sometimes take place on the 2nd and 3rd of July. To compound things they use the 5th of July for the years that the 4th is on a Sunday, and the following monday is the official government "holiday", making the unlikely assumption that all celebrations would be postponed a day just because workers have it off. Skimming the paper it seems like a compound of flimsy hypothesis gussied up with multivariable equations and decimal points to make it look more exacting.
Doctor Biobrain on July 02, 2011 1:35 PM:
In sum, if you were born before 1970, and experienced sunny July 4th days between the ages of 7-14, and lived in a predominantly Republican county, you may be more Republican as a consequence.
What?!? With a cherry-picked result like that, it sounds like they refuted the point they were attempting to find and went with anything that justified their efforts.
Either something works or it doesn't. And if they're seeing a measly 2% increase even in their cherrypicked result, I would say they found nothing at all.
Crissa on July 04, 2011 9:53 PM:
Did they control for climate?
Because there's more rain on the coasts in July than in 'red states'. It could just be that Republicans live in more arid places than Democrats.
bakho on July 04, 2011 11:05 PM:
Many of the parades are held in suburban and white MIddle Class towns, not places where poor people live.
They have parades in the wealthy downtown sections of Chicago, not on the south side where a lot of poor people live. Many of the poor are working on the 4th. They are the janitors and maids making the beds for the rich people to stay in and take their kids to the parade. The children of the poor have to stay home and find something to do in the neighborhood while Mom and Dad are at work.
Does the paper correct for socioeconomic status? If not, it may be that socioeconomic status is correlated both with attending parades and being a Republican. There may not be a link between parades and being a Republican. Just Sayin
Chesire11 on July 05, 2011 1:03 AM:
Aside from trhe obvious observation that "correlation does not equal causation," did these guys take into account the fact that Independence Day festivities often take place on the 2nd or 3rd, depending upon what day of the week 7/4 falls? This year the 4th fell on a Monday, but many towns in my area celebrated on Sunday, while otehrs celebrated today, so observations are local and inconsistent.
How incredibly stupid!
Boxhawker on July 06, 2011 3:41 PM:
Did you guys take into account the fact that you have probably been hoaxed?
Anonymous on July 06, 2011 11:26 PM:
Interesting correlation. It rains a lot in the summer in places like Florida, including on the 4th. So, Florida, which delivered to us George Bush and his "state government services should be privatized" brother Jeb as Florida's governor, is primarily a Democratic state that votes Republican.
Grey Fedora on July 17, 2011 5:13 PM:
"Did you guys take into account the fact that you have probably been hoaxed?"
It was the headline of the April 1st Edition of The Onion.