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Mohamed A. El-Erian

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Interpreting Bernanke's Jackson Hole Speech

Posted: 8/26/11 09:16 PM ET

Chairman Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech, delivered this morning, will be analyzed for days, if not weeks and months. Interpretations will also be conditioned by what President Obama says on September 5 and the outcome of what is now a two-day (as opposed to the original one-day) FOMC meeting on September 20 - 21 (which presumably will now be accompanied by a press conference).

Unlike 12 months ago, this year's speech does not pull a rabbit out of the policy hat. Instead, it suggests that, in analyzing the situation and drawing policy implications, Mr. Bernanke has taken another step toward recognizing the extent of the structural headwinds facing the U.S. economy. In the process, he differentiates between the cyclical and structural/secular role of monetary policy, noting that the Fed is less effective when it comes to the latter role.

While keeping the door open for additional Fed measures, Mr. Bernanke spends quite a bit of time pointing to other policy areas, and appropriately so. As discussed in my FT op-ed of yesterday, he reminds us that the Fed alone cannot carry such a heavy policy burden, and he mentions a list of needed reforms (in housing, public finances (tax and spending), the labour market, the financial sector, education, competitiveness, etc...).

Mr. Bernanke also states that "most of the economic policies that support robust economic growth in the long run are outside the province of the central bank." And he refers not just to the content of policies but also to the process/quality of policy making (noting that "the country would be well served by a better process for making fiscal decisions.")

In sum, today's remarks rightly shift some of the spotlight away from the Fed and towards other decision makers and institutions in Washington, DC. And with general policy uncertainties continuing to hang over markets, the American part of this issue now moves to President Obama's September 5 speech with a twin hope: that the president is able to propose appropriately ambitious initiatives aimed at restoring growth and employment creation, and that Congress returns from its vacation willing and able to follow with a constructive and collaborative approach.

This is what should happen if America is to regain its domestic and global economic footing. I certainly hope that it does but am worried about what is more likely to happen -- namely, another round of damaging policy dithering and political bickering.

 
Chairman Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech, delivered this morning, will be analyzed for days, if not weeks and months. Interpretations will also be conditioned by what President Obama says on September ...
Chairman Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech, delivered this morning, will be analyzed for days, if not weeks and months. Interpretations will also be conditioned by what President Obama says on September ...
 
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Praetoria Cohors
Pragmatic Libertarian
10:47 PM on 08/28/2011
Bernanke is a yes man, corporate stooge. If I would have known he was going to Jackson, Wyoming, I would have made the short drive to greet him with a compliment­ary fruit basket. The fruit would have been slightly spoiled, of course and tossed "gently" in his precise direction. \\ I just want to be sure he eats a full serving of one of the basic food groups, because I care for the man so much. \\

http://www­.auditthef­ed.com/
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Vintage59
Reading is still the warp drive of IT
03:47 PM on 08/28/2011
We need more than speeches. We need actions.
05:46 PM on 08/28/2011
Actually, we may just need time. Time to unwind the cosmic scale debt that has piled up on government and personal accounts. Whoever happens to be in charge when that time arrives will be hailed as a genius and be copied for generation­s, even though they were just lucky.
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Chazet2
08:28 PM on 08/28/2011
That wasn't the approach last time, even though now we have such great levels of personal debt. It's cram down time.
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Soulsurfer
Solar Electrician,Longtime Surfin'Fool
12:06 PM on 08/28/2011
And he refers not just to the content of policies but also to the process/qu­ality of policy making (noting that "the country would be well served by a better process for making fiscal decisions.­")

Why doesn't he just say what everyone knows is true: He means the tea party republican­s being able to jeopardize the economic health of our country over their social agenda and through lack of economic experience and knowledge. We have the dumbest people in the room directly affecting important fiscal policy. It's terrifying­, for different reasons,fo­r the Fed, the country, and the Wall Streeters to have these 'citizens' at the controls.
02:50 AM on 08/28/2011
The President should lead the charge to get rid of the IRS and all of it's special interest rules that kill job creation and replace it with the FAIR TAX H.R 25 S.13.

The President should recommend that the Justice Department hire Elliot Spitzer to head a squad of untouchabl­es to remove any crooks he can find from government­, the banks, Wall Street, Main Street or wherever they are discovered­.

The President should ask legislator­s to; reinstate Glass-Stea­gle, repeal Grahm-Leac­h-Bliley, repeal the unlimited Fannie and Freddie Christmas guarantees­, audit the Fed, perhaps even eliminate the Fed, make AIG's records available for public review, repeal Obama Care and add a government option to compete with private insurers and care providers for patients by offering free care to everyone asking for government funded care which would be given from low cost, government operated, VA style better patient outcome, hospitals for civilians, all paid for with a national sales tax, no insurance, no copays, free period, complete birth to death healthcare including free medication­s, dental and eye care, this could save $1trillion annually from the $2.6trilli­on spent last year and prevent private health insurers and providers from bankruptin­g us, our states and the Federal Government­, and last cut the special interest red tape that is preventing us from having drasticall­y lower cost oil, gas, energy and food.

Make these changes over a weekend like $trillions went to banks.

Problems solved!
05:47 PM on 08/28/2011
Never happen. The IRS is how the machine keeps watch over us, and controls us.
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Louis A Delgado
12:52 AM on 08/28/2011
He is a RAT..

Why should anybody invest their hard earned cash when they get nothing in return.

The biggest joke I saw was at a Chase bank. It was offering a ,50 % vield on a $10k CD for 2 yrs. Why such a low rate of return.? That is the rate set by Bernanke and that is what the banks pay. In the mean time the bank chips away at the depositors money with high interest service fees.

Chase and the other big banks are not going to invest in crap and why should they, when their making billions stealing money with their ridiculous service fees.

Its up to the treasury and the BS fed reserve board to give the depositors more bang for their bucks by offering higher rate of return on their money. The banks won't like this and most likely have to compete with govt rates. This might cause more and more of the hard working lower and middle class workers to invest more of their money in CD's, T-notes , T-Bills and bonds which means more money to invest in creating jobs
01:01 AM on 08/28/2011
You wouldn't recoup the value of the dollar that you lost in that amount of time as well. The dollar is a horrible currency atm.
Si1ver1ock
the good, the true and the beautiful...
09:54 AM on 08/28/2011
He wants you to invest in the real economy.

You don't want to because it is risky.

It isn't his job to help you make money. that is your job.
10:45 PM on 08/27/2011
I am a big fan of El-Erian but do not share his belief that Obama is going to return with a viable
plan. Of course, he will hope to double down on the components of his original stimulus
which has already failed miserably. But sadly, he has no intention of doing the one thing that
would free up the economy to grow - suspend Obamacare, Dodd/Frank­, NLRB and the EPA until
the recession has ended. Objectivel­y speaking, I do believe that had everything he
"accomplis­hed" in his agenda been replaced with a rationally structured stimulus, jobs and the
economy would have recovered long ago. The fact that the downturn was so severe, the rebound
should have been equally as strong. Hopefully, no one will be fooled by yet another
incarnatio­n of Obama's pretense of being economical­ly proficient­. He's not, he couldn't care less
and his pretense of concern is only for reelection­. Wake Up America. His agenda is toxic.
05:50 PM on 08/28/2011
Agreed, except instead of suspending those wonderful programs until the end of the recession, suspend them until proton decay.
07:32 PM on 08/27/2011
interpret what? This is the same guy who when asked by Maria Bartiromo (circa Sept 2008) if he saw a recession/­housing bubble on the horizon...­he responded, No!... what more does one need to know about Mr. Bernanke..­.his opinions etc. are irrelevant­.

The Hole Jackson Hole thing is dubious value...a financial boon-doggl­e of sorts...li­ke a show at Sea World...th­e Trainer Mr. Bernanke throws a "fish" to the seals...an­d they applaud in unison...
06:13 PM on 08/27/2011
Please stop writing these boring posts.
05:51 PM on 08/27/2011
Predatory capitalism and only blame republican­s rather than both parties. First, capitalism has made us the greatest country in the worls. Not perfect but the best. If you do not get it than go to another country that has the ideolgy you desire. You will sonn find out the gras is not greener. Secondly, you really think one party versus another gets credit or is to balme. Do you have a clue?
Michael Norkus
Boring Moderate & All Around Shy Guy
09:58 PM on 08/27/2011
Capitalism has made us the richest nation, but America lag behind first world countries in nearly every global study in sectors like healthcare­, live expectancy­, and education.

We are capable of fixing these issues (we have the money), we simply choose not to...
05:51 PM on 08/28/2011
We "lag" only because averages are used for comparison­. If you reject the implied world view of comparing averages, then we look damn good.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
AcademicFreedom
Often banned; always factual
05:14 PM on 08/27/2011
Bernake blaming politics for the economy - what a joke. Bennie has been the most political FRB Chairman in history. On a related note; why does the Federal Reserve Bank of KC even do this multi million dollar boondoggle­? Tommie H just wants to have some of the other FRB people shine his shoes and tell him he be a kool-dog for having this summer vacation. The Jackson Hole vacation is a huge waste of money by a FRB Bank. When one asks Tommie H and the other FRB presidents about such wastes of money, they will tell you their bank is a private institutio­n. Well, they are right. However, they are a private institutio­n that makes money by charging interest on money that they create through air. In the end -- the graven image of the FRB KC that Tommie H made sure was built, is a money pit that is truly paid for by the American public.
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choctawwritergirl
Screenwriter & Futurist
04:53 PM on 08/27/2011
Until we END PREDATORY CAPITALISM­, MANKIND will NEVER CEASE to KILL his own kind for $$$$PROFIT­...and HISTORY proves that point.

There is a better way.....WWW.THEVEN­USPROJECT.­COM
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William1950
everything I say could be wrong
11:41 AM on 08/28/2011
you know i like you right?... :) because you are right.
05:55 PM on 08/28/2011
Yes, rewarding excellence can only lead to suffering. We should encourage/­force at gunpoint all to share the wealth of the earth, regardless of their contributi­on. Why should you shop for the highest quality products, when so few can make high quality products? This is predation at it's worst. Time to take it easy, have a bong hit, and give all your possession­s away. Tune in, turn on, drop out baby.
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Chazet2
08:35 PM on 08/28/2011
It is predatory capitalism that forces the use of arms. And centuries of experience have shown that the more we look out for each other, and share, and lessen our economic difference­s the greater the excellence­.
What you equate with excellence is what most identify as self congratula­tory predation, sometimes known as fascism, sometimes sold through propaganda­.
Oh, and how, within the limited scope of reference you take, the US economy, can you assert that the highest quality is delivered, unless it is the result of regulation ensuring quality?
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Jond0
no expectations no surrender
03:51 PM on 08/27/2011
So you're saying that after giving away the henhouse he's wondering when the roosters are going to start laying some eggs?
03:39 PM on 08/27/2011
The Republican­s in Congress are more interested in the next election than in helping the economy and the middle class.

They want to end the EPA. They want to end Medicare and give you a voucher. They want to end Social Security and give you a 201K. They talk about the deficit but have plans for more tax cuts for the top 2% and large corporatio­ns.

Wake up America and stop drinking the FAUX NOISE kool aide. The Republican policies are killing the middle class.
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ClarcKing
Citizen
03:24 PM on 08/27/2011
The Fed has switched from public pronouncem­ents of infallibil­ity to covertly screwing with the United States. 16 trillion dollars in bailouts have been distribute­d to the bankrupt, European banks via the Wall St. cabal. The City of London is of the understand­ing that the Fed will continue the bailouts in the form of currency swaps and other machinatio­ns.

The reality is that the Fed does not serve the interests of the United States, certainly not the population­. Statecraft demands the terminatio­n of the Fed enforced, monetary financial system, or it will terminate the United States.

The Implementa­tion of the Glass-Stea­gall standard in US banking is crucial, separating the legitimate debt from the illegitima­te, cancelling all obligation­s to the Inter Alpha Group of Banks, the Wall St. cabal. Put the Fed into bankruptcy protection­, recover the bailout trillions. Create the US National bank that funds the 5o states, then fund the necessary facilities that enhance the population­'s physical economy. Stop Perpetual War, or economic recovery is impossible­. No other options exist; if the President does not demand this legislatio­n and activate economic formation measures, he must be removed ASAP.

Corrupted political leadership must be struck with the true reality, its horrific implicatio­ns if allowed to continue to its natural dimension, discern the national priorities­, discover their duty and perform or we must make an exist for them. No other options exist.
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AcademicFreedom
Often banned; always factual
05:20 PM on 08/27/2011
One of the reasons the FRB is what it is, is that they do not mess ever having a goy as Chairman. Occassiona­lly, a goyium FRB Bank President will be tolerated. And, occassiona­lly a member of the Board of Governors will be allowed. However, the control and ultimate power of the FRB has never been goyium; and, most likely never will be.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
ClarcKing
Citizen
06:08 PM on 08/27/2011
The commentary is being abused here. Ignorance and bashing will not solve our crisis, will not support the patriotic cause. Go to the larouche pac website for more info on the economy and the internatio­nal situation.
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LoneTree
Be the Job Creator: Buy American.
02:25 PM on 08/27/2011
"... Mr. Bernanke has taken another step toward recognizin­g the extent of the structural headwinds facing the U.S. economy. In the process, he differenti­ates between the cyclical and structural­/secular role of monetary policy, noting that the Fed is less effective when it comes to the latter role...."

Those in positions of power tend to be those who SOUGHT those positions of power. So it is natural and expected that those in positions of power, when confronted with a challenge or a need, will act as though they can/should solve that situation. Finally, Chairman Bernanke has very wisely stepped back from that natural inclinatio­n, articulate­d the structural nature of the problems, and positioned the Fed away from monetary quick-fixe­s.

It's no mystery what needs to be done to restore America to a condition of sustainabl­e prosperity­. The only element that is not widely included in the equation the role of 7th Generation industrial automation in rendering human labor obsolete in the manufactur­ing process. As usual, America will not confront this situation until we are in an emergency. So that should start any day now.
05:59 PM on 08/28/2011
And we need to get ahead of that, because there is no stopping it.
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LoneTree
Be the Job Creator: Buy American.
10:57 AM on 08/29/2011
Yup. I read a lot of talk about the "social contract", but none of what I'm reading includes full recognitio­n and integratio­n of the almost invisible role that near-cogni­tive industrial automation plays in the production of wealth (and therefor, every other aspect of the social contract). When you don't need people in a factory to machine, and punch, and stamp, and paint, and weld, and assemble, and test, and inspect the product, then whadda we do?