The Cook Political Report | The insider's choice for election analysis

Michigan: New District Baselines

August 25, 2011
House Editor David Wasserman writes: From GOP Rep. Thad McCotter’s hopeless campaign for his party’s presidential nomination to two Detroit Democrats’ decision to trade districts, Michigan is home to some of the more unusual House politics of 2012. But Republicans are poised to accomplish what they set out to do: ensure that Michigan’s loss of a House seat in reapportionment comes out of the Democratic column, while protecting the state’s nine GOP incumbents. On August 9, GOP Gov. Rick Snyder signed a new map into law that gravely endangers the career of Democratic Rep. Gary Peters.
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Utah Senate Baseline Analysis

August 25, 2011
Senior Editor Jennifer Duffy writes: Utah is the most Republican state in the nation, so perhaps it is not terribly surprising that Republican Sen. Orrin Hatch’s biggest challenge in his bid for a seventh term may come in his effort to win his party’s nomination next April, and not necessarily in the general election the following November. Hatch has reason to worry, despite recent developments that have given the incumbent and his campaign a reason to breathe a little easier. There is much history here. Democrats are watching the maneuverings on the GOP side very closely, hoping for an opening to put a Republican-held seat in play, even if their chances of actually winning the race are remote.
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Memo to the GOP: Independent Voters Are Required to Win the General Election

August 22, 2011
The 2012 presidential election is shaping up to be one of oddest in memory and potentially far more dramatic than one might guess. Obviously, the general election is still more than 14 months away -- and, in politics, and for that matter anything involving human behavior, predictions are dangerous. But the dynamics that seem to be emerging are fascinating.
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Texas Senate: Baseline Analysis

August 18, 2011
Senior Editor Jennifer Duffy writes: The race to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison has already been a long and winding road, and the election is still 14 months away. In truth, this contest began in late 2008 when speculation began that Hutchison would run for Governor in 2010. The theory was that Hutchison would resign her seat to pursue the gubernatorial nomination, and thus there would be a special election to choose someone to fill the remainder of her term. As a result, candidates began to announce their intentions to run in a race that didn’t yet exist. Hutchison didn’t resign her seat, but she is retiring at the end of this Congress. Now that the race is a reality, the Republican field has changed as some candidates exited and others jumped in, creating at least a six-way field. Republicans are now essentially looking at a three-way race between former state Solicitor General Ted Cruz, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, and former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert for the two run-off spots. If Republicans are confident in their ability to hold the seat, Democrats believe they can put it in play. They realize that they have an uphill climb here, but they see a glimmer of hope that this red state is showing signs that it is starting to fade to purple. They also believe that they have found a candidate with a unique profile who can make this a race. That candidate is retired Army Gen. Ricardo Sanchez.
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Redistricting Roulette: Will “Perrymander” Survive in Court?

August 18, 2011
House Editor David Wasserman writes: If House Democrats unexpectedly end up winning a jackpot of new seats in ruby red Texas, they might have some unlikely people to thank: the Republican-dominated Texas legislature, GOP Rep. Joe Barton, and Gov. Rick Perry. Republicans' worst nightmare is that their gamble for an extra seat at the expense of Latino voters could end up costing them three, four, or even five seats in a court-drawn map. Both parties agree that the real fight over the lines in Texas began, rather than ended, with Perry's signature in July. The GOP map is now fighting a two front legal war. In San Antonio, a three-judge federal panel has consolidated a litany of Latino and Democratic-backed lawsuits against the map and is scheduled to go to trial September 6th. And in Washington, lawyers representing the GOP state attorney general are simultaneously seeking Voting Rights Act preclearance for the map from a separate three-judge federal appeals panel. But there's a ticking time bomb: if the DC court denies preclearance or, more likely, fails to rule on the issue by the November opening of Texas's candidate filing period, the San Antonio panel could draw its own plan from scratch for 2012.
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